Cink Can Land World Matchplay
A different strategy for picking winners is required this week for the first of this year's World Golf Championship events, the Accenture World Matchplay. The first thing to remember is that in 18 hole matchplay, the stroke play formbook goes largely out of the window. In previous years of this event, near enough half of the matches have been won by the outsider, so under no circumstances should a match be looked upon as a certainty or banker. Secondly, the key to working out the value comes from evaluating the draw. With the 2 most likely winners, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, in the same half of the draw, we can back any of the 32 players in the other half with impunity, safe in the knowledge that they can't run into one of these two until the final. Thirdly, don't be afraid to back outsiders. The unthinkable really can happen in this type of format, as Jeff Maggert,Kevin Sutherland and Steve Stricker have proved in 3 of the previous 6 runnings of the World Matchplay.
With the course at La Costa waterlogged after several recent downpours and more predicted over the weekend, the shortest hitters are at a massive disadvantage. With conditions similar over the last 2 runnings of theevent, we have plenty of form to work on. Towards the bottom of this message,I've listed the 15 players who have won more than 50% of their matches over the past 2 years. Tiger, winner both years, has of course got a 100% record and is very much the one to beat again. Matchplay brings the best out in Woods and usually brings the worst out in his terrified opponents. Last year, he drove the ball terribly for 5 days yet one by one his opponents fell apart. I wouldn't put anyone off backing Tiger but would suggest backing each him for each match individually as an accumulator as the odds will almost certainly beat the best-priced 4/1 on offer. If, for example, he had to play Mickelson in the semi and Vijay Singh in the final, the accumulative odds would probably be closer to 7/1. Woods and Mickelson are far from the only strong contenders in that half of the draw. In my view, Padraig Harrington, Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia and David Toms all have fine chances this week, while even Jerry Kelly and Shigeki Maruyama could be lively outsiders. Under these circumstances, the best strategy is to leave them all to carve each other up while we concentrate on the far less competitive other half of the draw. Here, the big guns are Vijay Singh and Retief Goosen, who both have poor records in the event and are readily opposed. I suggest backing 4 nicely priced players safe in the knowledge that one semi-finalist will guarantee a profitable tournament, before we have to worry about Woods and co.
First up, I'm going for the consistent STEWART CINK at 40/1 (50/1 with Ladbrokes). Cink has already won a WGC event, the 2004 NEC Invitational, and there could be more big prizes to come this year. The key point behind backing him is his first round match against Fred Funk. Short-hitting Funk has never won a match here in 4 attempts and has never struck me as a man with the temparament for matchplay. Provided Stewart wins that match, he will be nowhere near that price - especially for the place part.
In the same quarter, JONATHAN KAYE looks worth a speculative punt at a massive 150/1. Despite failing to follow up on his fine start to the season when runner-up in the Mercedes, Kaye remains a player with a promising future. He should have a nice advantage off the tee against round 1 opponent Jay Haas, and aside a potential round 2 match-up against Singh, shouldn't fear anyone prior to the quarter final, where he would be one victory away from a lucrative place.
After a disappointing winter by his own standards, Australian ROBERTALLENBY looked right back to form at the Nissan last week. Only 3 shots behind at halfway, Bob looked a likely contender before rain brought proceedings to a halt. With a 60% win record here over the past 2 years and plenty of form in bad weather, 80/1 looks much too big. Once again, the clincher is his Round 1 opponent. I strongly fancy Allenby to take care of Open champion Todd Hamilton tomorrow, who has done nothing this season.
For the 4th selection, my old favourite PETER LONARD stands out as exceptional value at 80/1 (100/1 with Ladbrokes). After a magnificent winter at home in Australia which included a remarkable hat-trick of wins, I know I'm not alone in thinking that this is the year when Peter makes the big breakthrough in the States. His record at La Costa is excellent, with a 62.5% success rate over the past 2 years, only going down in a play off in the 2003 semi.
Elsewhere this week, there are 3 other low-grade strokeplay events. On the US Tour, the Tucson Open has been a minefield for punters in recent years and is best swerved as far as the staking plan is concerned. If you want an interest, look no further than the promising AARON OBERHOLSER to improve on last year's 6th place. The New Zealand PGA is another co-sanctioned event with the Nationwide Tour and looks as much of a lottery as last week's Jacobs Creek Open, which outsider Stephen Bowditch ran away with. Again, I'm keeping my powder dry but if you must have a bet, you could do a lot worse than back Kiwi DAVID SMAIL at 16/1 with Golfing Gods.
The Sunshine Tour in South Africa comes to a close this week, with the finale Tour Championship. Despite last week's near-miss, its worth persevering with future Major winner CHARL SCHWARTZEL. The youngster would have dotted up last week but for a disastrous run of holes in Round 3, but showed his character again by storming back into 2nd place. Charl is miles ahead of the rest in the South African money list and must be worth backing to finish the winter in style.
Finally, I may well be advising match selections as the World Matchplay progresses. However, I won't be sending out another e-mail so if you're interested, check out my blog
http://krishnamurty.blogspot.com/
or alternatively, this new sports betting advice site to which I am> contributing
www.coattugger.com>> Good Luck!
PLAYERS WITH A WORLD MATCHPLAY STRIKE-RATE OF OVER 50% FOR 2003/2004 TIGER WOODS 100%
DARREN CLARKE 88%
DAVIS LOVE III 86%
DAVID TOMS 78%
JERRY KELLY 75%>
IAN POULTER 75%
PHIL MICKELSON 71%
CHAD CAMPBELL 67%
JIM FURYK 67%
PADRAIG HARRINGTON 67%
STEVEN LEANEY 67%
PETER LONARD 63%
ROBERT ALLENBY 60%
ALEX CEJKA 60%
JAY HAAS 60%
STAKING PLAN
WORLD MATCHPLAY
2pts ew STEWART CINK @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 50/1 WITH LADBROKES)
1pt ew ROBERT ALLENBY @ 80/1 (HILLS, LADBROKES, STANLEY)
1pt ew PETER LONARD @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 100/1 WITH LADBROKES)
1pt ew JONATHAN KAYE @ 150/1 (SPORTING ODDS, LADBROKES)
VODACOM SA TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP
4pts WIN CHARL SCHWARTZEL @ 6/1 (BETFRED, GOLFING GODS, STAN JAMES)
STATISTICS (After Week 7)
PROFIT/LOSS: (-28.75 PTS)
With the course at La Costa waterlogged after several recent downpours and more predicted over the weekend, the shortest hitters are at a massive disadvantage. With conditions similar over the last 2 runnings of theevent, we have plenty of form to work on. Towards the bottom of this message,I've listed the 15 players who have won more than 50% of their matches over the past 2 years. Tiger, winner both years, has of course got a 100% record and is very much the one to beat again. Matchplay brings the best out in Woods and usually brings the worst out in his terrified opponents. Last year, he drove the ball terribly for 5 days yet one by one his opponents fell apart. I wouldn't put anyone off backing Tiger but would suggest backing each him for each match individually as an accumulator as the odds will almost certainly beat the best-priced 4/1 on offer. If, for example, he had to play Mickelson in the semi and Vijay Singh in the final, the accumulative odds would probably be closer to 7/1. Woods and Mickelson are far from the only strong contenders in that half of the draw. In my view, Padraig Harrington, Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia and David Toms all have fine chances this week, while even Jerry Kelly and Shigeki Maruyama could be lively outsiders. Under these circumstances, the best strategy is to leave them all to carve each other up while we concentrate on the far less competitive other half of the draw. Here, the big guns are Vijay Singh and Retief Goosen, who both have poor records in the event and are readily opposed. I suggest backing 4 nicely priced players safe in the knowledge that one semi-finalist will guarantee a profitable tournament, before we have to worry about Woods and co.
First up, I'm going for the consistent STEWART CINK at 40/1 (50/1 with Ladbrokes). Cink has already won a WGC event, the 2004 NEC Invitational, and there could be more big prizes to come this year. The key point behind backing him is his first round match against Fred Funk. Short-hitting Funk has never won a match here in 4 attempts and has never struck me as a man with the temparament for matchplay. Provided Stewart wins that match, he will be nowhere near that price - especially for the place part.
In the same quarter, JONATHAN KAYE looks worth a speculative punt at a massive 150/1. Despite failing to follow up on his fine start to the season when runner-up in the Mercedes, Kaye remains a player with a promising future. He should have a nice advantage off the tee against round 1 opponent Jay Haas, and aside a potential round 2 match-up against Singh, shouldn't fear anyone prior to the quarter final, where he would be one victory away from a lucrative place.
After a disappointing winter by his own standards, Australian ROBERTALLENBY looked right back to form at the Nissan last week. Only 3 shots behind at halfway, Bob looked a likely contender before rain brought proceedings to a halt. With a 60% win record here over the past 2 years and plenty of form in bad weather, 80/1 looks much too big. Once again, the clincher is his Round 1 opponent. I strongly fancy Allenby to take care of Open champion Todd Hamilton tomorrow, who has done nothing this season.
For the 4th selection, my old favourite PETER LONARD stands out as exceptional value at 80/1 (100/1 with Ladbrokes). After a magnificent winter at home in Australia which included a remarkable hat-trick of wins, I know I'm not alone in thinking that this is the year when Peter makes the big breakthrough in the States. His record at La Costa is excellent, with a 62.5% success rate over the past 2 years, only going down in a play off in the 2003 semi.
Elsewhere this week, there are 3 other low-grade strokeplay events. On the US Tour, the Tucson Open has been a minefield for punters in recent years and is best swerved as far as the staking plan is concerned. If you want an interest, look no further than the promising AARON OBERHOLSER to improve on last year's 6th place. The New Zealand PGA is another co-sanctioned event with the Nationwide Tour and looks as much of a lottery as last week's Jacobs Creek Open, which outsider Stephen Bowditch ran away with. Again, I'm keeping my powder dry but if you must have a bet, you could do a lot worse than back Kiwi DAVID SMAIL at 16/1 with Golfing Gods.
The Sunshine Tour in South Africa comes to a close this week, with the finale Tour Championship. Despite last week's near-miss, its worth persevering with future Major winner CHARL SCHWARTZEL. The youngster would have dotted up last week but for a disastrous run of holes in Round 3, but showed his character again by storming back into 2nd place. Charl is miles ahead of the rest in the South African money list and must be worth backing to finish the winter in style.
Finally, I may well be advising match selections as the World Matchplay progresses. However, I won't be sending out another e-mail so if you're interested, check out my blog
http://krishnamurty.blogspot.com/
or alternatively, this new sports betting advice site to which I am> contributing
www.coattugger.com>> Good Luck!
PLAYERS WITH A WORLD MATCHPLAY STRIKE-RATE OF OVER 50% FOR 2003/2004 TIGER WOODS 100%
DARREN CLARKE 88%
DAVIS LOVE III 86%
DAVID TOMS 78%
JERRY KELLY 75%>
IAN POULTER 75%
PHIL MICKELSON 71%
CHAD CAMPBELL 67%
JIM FURYK 67%
PADRAIG HARRINGTON 67%
STEVEN LEANEY 67%
PETER LONARD 63%
ROBERT ALLENBY 60%
ALEX CEJKA 60%
JAY HAAS 60%
STAKING PLAN
WORLD MATCHPLAY
2pts ew STEWART CINK @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 50/1 WITH LADBROKES)
1pt ew ROBERT ALLENBY @ 80/1 (HILLS, LADBROKES, STANLEY)
1pt ew PETER LONARD @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 100/1 WITH LADBROKES)
1pt ew JONATHAN KAYE @ 150/1 (SPORTING ODDS, LADBROKES)
VODACOM SA TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP
4pts WIN CHARL SCHWARTZEL @ 6/1 (BETFRED, GOLFING GODS, STAN JAMES)
STATISTICS (After Week 7)
PROFIT/LOSS: (-28.75 PTS)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 4:08 AM
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