Els and Singh look a winning double
There are 3 tournaments on which to play this week, and thankfully not an amateur in site, though on the downside the only live coverage available on British TV will be the FBR Open on the PGA Tour. In Australia, we have an excellent tournament, the Heineken Classic, being played on one of the world's greatest courses, Royal Melbourne, yet Sky are yet again refusing to show live pictures overnight and we have to wait till 7am for highlights. Until 2 years ago, the winter months were brightened by the prospect of live coverage of the excellent Australasian tour. Surely I wasn't the only insomniac who stayed up all night? This ludicrous policy at Sky ruins what would no doubt be a great in-running market and I suggest that all of you agree should join me in bombarding Sky with e-mails on the subject.
Anyway, enough of the rant and on to the selections. In Melbourne, Ernie Els is attempting a very rare feat, his 4th consecutive victory in this tournament. Unsurprisingly, his odds are very prohibitive at 3/1 despite some strong opposition led by Aussies Stuart Appleby, Adam Scott, Peter Lonard and a host of top Europeans. Everything is made for Ernie here. Royal Melbourne has all the characteristics of a great links course and the Big Easy is the finest links exponent in the world. For each of the last 3 years he has won unchallenged and 3/1 would have looked a big price after Day 1. However, I just cannot bring myself to back him at those odds in a single but I will be looking to back Ernie at 6/1 or bigger in-running. Also, I suggest a small win double with the FBR favourite Vijay Singh, which I shall get to in a minute.
With Ernie dominating the market, there should be some each-way value around, and nobody fits the bill better than my current nemesis, THOMAS BJORN. I suppose I shouldn't be too harsh as Thomas does at least keep coming up with place returns but his efforts at the weekend were again infuriating. For some reason, he keeps throwing in bizarre double-bogeys in the middle of some scintillating spells of golf to ruin winning chances. Nevertheless, Bjorn remains a winner waiting to happen and should thrive under linksy conditions. His record at the British Open is world class and on his only previous visit to Melbourne finished a respectable 14th despite his game being in a slump at the time. Contrast that with the fact that he hasn't had a bad tournament since chasing home Ernie in the Amex Championship in October and the Dane looks a sure-fire contender.
There are several consistent Australians available at big prices who look sure to go well this week at decent odds - Nick O'Hern, Richard Green, Peter Fowler and PETER O'MALLEY - though I'm deterred by the fact they are all highly dodgy under pressure. Preference is for the latter who is also the best price at a whopping 100/1. Runner-up to Ernie in 2002 and a respectable 11th last year, Melbourne appears to suit O'Malley's accurate game. Always one of the straightest hitters in the world, POM tends to come unstuck on short putts and has never been a convincing front runner. Hopefully, he'll start the final day 3 shots back before launching his customary late charge!
In the US, the tour moves on to the regular fixture in the Arizona Desert, the FBR Open (formally the Phoenix). The market is headed by World No 1 VIJAY SINGH, twice a former winner of this and very much the one to beat. Apparently, the rough has grown considerably at Scottsdale and after heavy rain, the course is playing long. This absolutely plays into the hands of the remarkable Fijian, who is certain to be on the premises. As mentioned above, Vijay should be backed in a double with Ernie Els (pays 19/1 with Ladbrokes) but again I just can't bring myself to back him in a single at such short odds. Look to back Vijay in-running at 8/1 or bigger.
With the rough up, accuracy should be at a premium and therefore it is impossible to overlook the claims of in-form TOM LEHMAN. The Ryder Cup captain has been wonderfully consistent without winning since early Autumn and his last effort when runner-up to Tiger at Torrey Pines was arguably the best of the lot. Lehman never flinched in that dual and further convinced me that he will win again this season. Tom won here in 2000 and otherwise has an excellent course record. Its very hard to see him out of the top 10.
Many good judges think this could be a big year in the US for FREDDIE JACOBSEN. The Swede looked a winner waiting to happen halfway through his debut season in the States last year before his game went surprisingly off the boil. Freddie looked right back to form at the weekend when only some trouble on the greens kept him out of the frame and he looks ready to return to the stellar form of 2003. An excellent 9th on his first Scottsdale visit last year, Jacobsen went into the notebook as a future winner of this, and with the greens softened by the rain I can see this aggressive player shooting right at the pins this week.
The third tournament is the untelevised Nashua Masters in South Africa. This one looks a bit of a lottery to me with some fairly disappointing characters heading the betting in a very poor field so I'm leaving well alone. Finally, just a quick note that I'm going to be publishing my weekly analysis on my blog. I started this blog late last year in order to post a few political articles I've written but now I intend to start publishing my golf tips on there as well, if only as a desperate attempt to get people to actually look at the site! If there's an in-running selection fancied over the weekend, I'm much more likely to just put it up on the blog. I'll still be continuing with the e-mails but if you fancy a look (or indeed an in-depth political debate) then here's the address:
http://krishnamurty.blogspot.com/
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
HEINEKEN CLASSIC
2pts EW THOMAS BJORN @ 22/1 (SPORTING ODDS, SKYBET, STANLEY - 25/1 WITH PADDY POWER)
1pt EW PETER O'MALLEY @ 100/1 (SPORTING ODDS, SKYBET)
2pts WIN DOUBLE ERNIE ELS @ 3/1 & VIJAY SINGH @ 4/1 (FOR THE FBR OPEN) (LADBROKES)
FBR OPEN
1pt EW TOM LEHMAN @ 25/1 (WIDELY AVAILABLE)
1pt EW FREDDIE JACOBSEN @ 40/1 (365, BET DIRECT, VICTOR CHANDLER)
STATISTICS (AFTER WEEK 4)
PROFIT/LOSS: + 13.125 PTS
Anyway, enough of the rant and on to the selections. In Melbourne, Ernie Els is attempting a very rare feat, his 4th consecutive victory in this tournament. Unsurprisingly, his odds are very prohibitive at 3/1 despite some strong opposition led by Aussies Stuart Appleby, Adam Scott, Peter Lonard and a host of top Europeans. Everything is made for Ernie here. Royal Melbourne has all the characteristics of a great links course and the Big Easy is the finest links exponent in the world. For each of the last 3 years he has won unchallenged and 3/1 would have looked a big price after Day 1. However, I just cannot bring myself to back him at those odds in a single but I will be looking to back Ernie at 6/1 or bigger in-running. Also, I suggest a small win double with the FBR favourite Vijay Singh, which I shall get to in a minute.
With Ernie dominating the market, there should be some each-way value around, and nobody fits the bill better than my current nemesis, THOMAS BJORN. I suppose I shouldn't be too harsh as Thomas does at least keep coming up with place returns but his efforts at the weekend were again infuriating. For some reason, he keeps throwing in bizarre double-bogeys in the middle of some scintillating spells of golf to ruin winning chances. Nevertheless, Bjorn remains a winner waiting to happen and should thrive under linksy conditions. His record at the British Open is world class and on his only previous visit to Melbourne finished a respectable 14th despite his game being in a slump at the time. Contrast that with the fact that he hasn't had a bad tournament since chasing home Ernie in the Amex Championship in October and the Dane looks a sure-fire contender.
There are several consistent Australians available at big prices who look sure to go well this week at decent odds - Nick O'Hern, Richard Green, Peter Fowler and PETER O'MALLEY - though I'm deterred by the fact they are all highly dodgy under pressure. Preference is for the latter who is also the best price at a whopping 100/1. Runner-up to Ernie in 2002 and a respectable 11th last year, Melbourne appears to suit O'Malley's accurate game. Always one of the straightest hitters in the world, POM tends to come unstuck on short putts and has never been a convincing front runner. Hopefully, he'll start the final day 3 shots back before launching his customary late charge!
In the US, the tour moves on to the regular fixture in the Arizona Desert, the FBR Open (formally the Phoenix). The market is headed by World No 1 VIJAY SINGH, twice a former winner of this and very much the one to beat. Apparently, the rough has grown considerably at Scottsdale and after heavy rain, the course is playing long. This absolutely plays into the hands of the remarkable Fijian, who is certain to be on the premises. As mentioned above, Vijay should be backed in a double with Ernie Els (pays 19/1 with Ladbrokes) but again I just can't bring myself to back him in a single at such short odds. Look to back Vijay in-running at 8/1 or bigger.
With the rough up, accuracy should be at a premium and therefore it is impossible to overlook the claims of in-form TOM LEHMAN. The Ryder Cup captain has been wonderfully consistent without winning since early Autumn and his last effort when runner-up to Tiger at Torrey Pines was arguably the best of the lot. Lehman never flinched in that dual and further convinced me that he will win again this season. Tom won here in 2000 and otherwise has an excellent course record. Its very hard to see him out of the top 10.
Many good judges think this could be a big year in the US for FREDDIE JACOBSEN. The Swede looked a winner waiting to happen halfway through his debut season in the States last year before his game went surprisingly off the boil. Freddie looked right back to form at the weekend when only some trouble on the greens kept him out of the frame and he looks ready to return to the stellar form of 2003. An excellent 9th on his first Scottsdale visit last year, Jacobsen went into the notebook as a future winner of this, and with the greens softened by the rain I can see this aggressive player shooting right at the pins this week.
The third tournament is the untelevised Nashua Masters in South Africa. This one looks a bit of a lottery to me with some fairly disappointing characters heading the betting in a very poor field so I'm leaving well alone. Finally, just a quick note that I'm going to be publishing my weekly analysis on my blog. I started this blog late last year in order to post a few political articles I've written but now I intend to start publishing my golf tips on there as well, if only as a desperate attempt to get people to actually look at the site! If there's an in-running selection fancied over the weekend, I'm much more likely to just put it up on the blog. I'll still be continuing with the e-mails but if you fancy a look (or indeed an in-depth political debate) then here's the address:
http://krishnamurty.blogspot.com/
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
HEINEKEN CLASSIC
2pts EW THOMAS BJORN @ 22/1 (SPORTING ODDS, SKYBET, STANLEY - 25/1 WITH PADDY POWER)
1pt EW PETER O'MALLEY @ 100/1 (SPORTING ODDS, SKYBET)
2pts WIN DOUBLE ERNIE ELS @ 3/1 & VIJAY SINGH @ 4/1 (FOR THE FBR OPEN) (LADBROKES)
FBR OPEN
1pt EW TOM LEHMAN @ 25/1 (WIDELY AVAILABLE)
1pt EW FREDDIE JACOBSEN @ 40/1 (365, BET DIRECT, VICTOR CHANDLER)
STATISTICS (AFTER WEEK 4)
PROFIT/LOSS: + 13.125 PTS
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 3:31 PM
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