Maruyama set for Nissan revenge
There's quite a rare treat this week for golf punters with 4 tournaments coming from Malaysia, Australia, South Africa and the US and consequently, live in-running betting available 24 hours per day until Sunday evening. Who needs sleep anyway? Without question the pedigree event is the long standing fixture at Riviera in the US, the Nissan Open, where Canadian Mike Weir is bidding for his third consecutive victory in the event and a strong opposition is led by back to form Tiger Woods and Retief Goosen.
Despite Weir's excellent second at the weekend, 14/1 looks short enough for my liking considering the woeful form of his previous two efforts. The same applies to Woods, in one of the few events which he has never won and Goosen, who is playing the tricky Riviera course for the first time.
Better value lies down the field on a course that takes some getting to know. One man who looked last year to have worked it out is SHIGEKI MARUYAMA. Last year's Nissan Open produced one of the most exciting head to head contests of last year, when the Japanese star nearly hunted down Weir from a seemingly impossible situation. With a home near to the course, Maruyama looks a live bet at 40/1 to erase the bad memories of his recent near miss in the Sony.
A player to go into the notebook over the past fortnight is Korean KJ CHOI. With a series of excellent efforts in last year's Majors, I'm expecting a third PGA Tour victory for KJ this year. He was 5th here a couple of years ago and looks to have the accurate game required to succeed at Riviera. After two decent efforts without quite getting into contention, Choi looks primed for the leaderboard this week.
Finally, despite a poor record at the course, I just can't leave LUKE DONALD out of the staking plan. Having developed one of he most consistent tee to green games in the world, Luke really should be expected to prosper around here. After a slow start last week, Donald once again fought back to finish a creditable 11th. If he had even the semblance of previous course form Luke would, at 33/1, be the main selection but even so, it would be folly to ignore these odds about a player very much on the up.
The latest leg stop for the globetrotting European Tour is the Malaysian Open, which thankfully is to be shown live on Sky. With the top Europeans completely dominating the Far-East Swing so far, it seems surprising that the top 3 in the betting, PADRAIG HARRINGTON, Miguel-Angel Jiminez and THOMAS BJORN are more or less the same prices they were when dominating the Hong Kong Open late last year.
The last Asian tournament in Singapore was again dominated by Europeans with BJORN, Monty and Nick Dougherty pulling clear of the rest. Bjorn could easily have won that event had it not been for a couple of typically ill-timed double-bogeys. Though he seems to be developing a habit for missed chances since his 2003 Open disaster, I'm still prepared to resist labelling Thomas a bottler and expect him to put those bad memories behind him in 2005 with a series of wins. Aside a disappointing missed cut in Melbourne a fortnight ago, Bjorn's has looked in excellent shape since the autumn and must be persevered with.
Of the other two contenders, only one can be justifiably backed at these odds and I'm coming down in marginal favour of another dubious finisher, PADRAIG HARRINGTON. Jiminez is very short at 8/1 and I have a theory that the Spaniard plays his very best golf when warm after a few tournaments. I wonder whether we'll see the best of him on his seasonal debut though if we do, Jiminez will be a certainty for a place at least. Alternatively, Harrington is very rarely not involved in the finish on these trips to Asia at rates at least a saver at 13/2.
The Australian event, the Jacobs Creek Open, has attracted very little interest with the layers. Only Skybet and Golfing Gods have bothered so far so I'm not going to bother adding to the staking plan here. For those looking for an interest I suggest promising Colombian CAMILIO VILLEGAS at 25/1 with both firms. This guy looks a superstar in the making and a repeat performance of his 10th place at the Heineken a fortnight ago would quite possibly be enough to land a poor event.
In the South African event similar problems apply but at least there are 4 firms pricing it up with Paddy Power and Chandler as well as the aforementioned pair. This is another weak field and I'm sticking with the brilliant CHARL SCHWARTZEL to justify favouritism. His first victory in the Dunhill Championship before Christmas was an important career landmark for this future major winner. In 2 years and quite possibly less, Schwartzel will be competing in a far higher class than this.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
NISSAN OPEN
1pt ew SHIGEKI MARUYAMA @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew KJ CHOI @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew LUKE DONALD @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
MALAYSIAN OPEN
3pts ew THOMAS BJORN @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
4pts win PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 13/2 (STAN JAMES, BET DIRECT)
TELKOM PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
4pts win CHARL SCHWARTZEL @ 7/1 (SKYBET, VICTOR CHANDLER, PADDY POWER)
STATISTICS (After Week 6)
PROFIT/LOSS: (-8.75 PTS)
Despite Weir's excellent second at the weekend, 14/1 looks short enough for my liking considering the woeful form of his previous two efforts. The same applies to Woods, in one of the few events which he has never won and Goosen, who is playing the tricky Riviera course for the first time.
Better value lies down the field on a course that takes some getting to know. One man who looked last year to have worked it out is SHIGEKI MARUYAMA. Last year's Nissan Open produced one of the most exciting head to head contests of last year, when the Japanese star nearly hunted down Weir from a seemingly impossible situation. With a home near to the course, Maruyama looks a live bet at 40/1 to erase the bad memories of his recent near miss in the Sony.
A player to go into the notebook over the past fortnight is Korean KJ CHOI. With a series of excellent efforts in last year's Majors, I'm expecting a third PGA Tour victory for KJ this year. He was 5th here a couple of years ago and looks to have the accurate game required to succeed at Riviera. After two decent efforts without quite getting into contention, Choi looks primed for the leaderboard this week.
Finally, despite a poor record at the course, I just can't leave LUKE DONALD out of the staking plan. Having developed one of he most consistent tee to green games in the world, Luke really should be expected to prosper around here. After a slow start last week, Donald once again fought back to finish a creditable 11th. If he had even the semblance of previous course form Luke would, at 33/1, be the main selection but even so, it would be folly to ignore these odds about a player very much on the up.
The latest leg stop for the globetrotting European Tour is the Malaysian Open, which thankfully is to be shown live on Sky. With the top Europeans completely dominating the Far-East Swing so far, it seems surprising that the top 3 in the betting, PADRAIG HARRINGTON, Miguel-Angel Jiminez and THOMAS BJORN are more or less the same prices they were when dominating the Hong Kong Open late last year.
The last Asian tournament in Singapore was again dominated by Europeans with BJORN, Monty and Nick Dougherty pulling clear of the rest. Bjorn could easily have won that event had it not been for a couple of typically ill-timed double-bogeys. Though he seems to be developing a habit for missed chances since his 2003 Open disaster, I'm still prepared to resist labelling Thomas a bottler and expect him to put those bad memories behind him in 2005 with a series of wins. Aside a disappointing missed cut in Melbourne a fortnight ago, Bjorn's has looked in excellent shape since the autumn and must be persevered with.
Of the other two contenders, only one can be justifiably backed at these odds and I'm coming down in marginal favour of another dubious finisher, PADRAIG HARRINGTON. Jiminez is very short at 8/1 and I have a theory that the Spaniard plays his very best golf when warm after a few tournaments. I wonder whether we'll see the best of him on his seasonal debut though if we do, Jiminez will be a certainty for a place at least. Alternatively, Harrington is very rarely not involved in the finish on these trips to Asia at rates at least a saver at 13/2.
The Australian event, the Jacobs Creek Open, has attracted very little interest with the layers. Only Skybet and Golfing Gods have bothered so far so I'm not going to bother adding to the staking plan here. For those looking for an interest I suggest promising Colombian CAMILIO VILLEGAS at 25/1 with both firms. This guy looks a superstar in the making and a repeat performance of his 10th place at the Heineken a fortnight ago would quite possibly be enough to land a poor event.
In the South African event similar problems apply but at least there are 4 firms pricing it up with Paddy Power and Chandler as well as the aforementioned pair. This is another weak field and I'm sticking with the brilliant CHARL SCHWARTZEL to justify favouritism. His first victory in the Dunhill Championship before Christmas was an important career landmark for this future major winner. In 2 years and quite possibly less, Schwartzel will be competing in a far higher class than this.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
NISSAN OPEN
1pt ew SHIGEKI MARUYAMA @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew KJ CHOI @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew LUKE DONALD @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
MALAYSIAN OPEN
3pts ew THOMAS BJORN @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
4pts win PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 13/2 (STAN JAMES, BET DIRECT)
TELKOM PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
4pts win CHARL SCHWARTZEL @ 7/1 (SKYBET, VICTOR CHANDLER, PADDY POWER)
STATISTICS (After Week 6)
PROFIT/LOSS: (-8.75 PTS)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 5:37 PM
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