Betting Previews for Volvo Masters & Chrysler Championship
The final act of this year's Order of Merit race is upon us as the 2005-2006 European Tour season comes to a conclusion at Valderrama this weekend. Before the 2006-2007 starts in a fortnight in Hong Kong, there's two more weeks of the US season left, with next week's Tour Championship to follow on from this week's Chrysler Championship. As always, the Volvo Masters Andalucia is an extremely lucrative affair, which means that we are still a long way from counting the winnings from OOM leader Paul Casey. With the first two prizes 666,660 and 444,440 Euros respectively, Casey needs to finish third to make Padraig Harrington or David Howell need the win rather than second place, while Robert Karlsson has a squeak if he can win the event and the others all finish 3rd or worse.
So far, not bothering with the saver has paid dividends. The only plausible saver is to lay Casey on Betfair at around 1/3, but I'm going to take my chances anyway. After all, its heavily odds-on that none of the contenders will win here, especially considering their ordinary course records, and as long as they don't run away with it a saver is always a possibility in-running. Having said that, I do make Casey very much one to oppose around the quirky layout of Valderrama. His main quality, length and strength, is fairly irrelevant around here, where accuracy is at an absolute premium.
One of the consequences of Valderrama's quirks is that few players relish the test, and many
have atrocious records yet still turn up for the guaranteed prize money. The two that really stand out are the two highest ranked players and market leaders, SERGIO GARCIA and LUKE DONALD. The bookies aren't giving much away at 7/1 and 9/1 respectively, but its very hard to see either being far away and will both probably at least trade much shorter. Garcia has finished runner-up for the last two years and never worse than 7th. I think this course suits him as well as any as it rewards his magnificent long game and penalises his inability to hole a putt less than most. The greens here are so hard very few lengthy birdie putts are holed by anyone. This also plays into Donald's hands, who rarely misses a green in regulation. Interestingly, Donald finished like a train last year in 3rd and looked to be getting the hang of a course that takes some knowing. After all, he has only played eight rounds here and for the first time, comes here fresh.
Another player who might have benefitted over the years because of the nature of the greens here is COLIN MONTGOMERIE, who is a very big price at 25/1 considering his great course record. Joint-winner in 2002, Monty looked set for another win here last year before he and Garcia shared a catastrophic final 2-ball to let in Paul McGinley. Like Sergio, Monty will be desperate to land his first win of the season, especially when it hasn't been so bad. After all, he probably came closer to winning a Major in 2006 than he ever has or will. And he was playing well enough last month to finish 6th in Germany under far less suitable conditions.
On the basis of his course record, rising star BRADLEY DREDGE also looks worth an each-way punt at 28/1. Dredge finished 3rd to Monty and Langer in 2002 and has made the top-15 on three out of four visits to Valderrama. After an improved 2005 where he promised much but consistently failed to produce the goods on the final day and some similar frustrations in 2006, last month's runaway win at Crans Sur Sierre may have marked a significant step in the Welshman's career. It was very interesting to see him finish runner-up to Harrington in his next start at the Dunhill Links, especially considering the fact that Bradley has never looked at his best on links courses. Clearly, Dredge's confidence at an all-time high, and should be persevered with when conditions suit, as they most certainly do here.
There was a period at the weekend where I thought I'd finally cracked the impossible PGA Tour with a 50/1 winner when Justin Rose was 8 shots ahead, but alas his putting fell apart over the weekend and we had to settle for a place behind Joe Durant, more in keeping with the usual Stateside winner in that he never even appeared on my radar. The Chrysler Championship, however, has produced top-class winners in recent years in the form of VIJAY SINGH, Retief Goosen and to a lesser extent Carl Pettersson and KJ Choi. For this reason, I'm prepared to lay out a bit more than in recent weeks here.
Furthermore, there's plenty of class on show, with Ernie Els playing here for the first time along with Singh, Goosen and Adam Scott from the world's top-10. The player I really like though is another course debutant, rising star TREVOR IMMELMAN. For my money, Immelman is the emerging player of 2006. He's been labelled a superstar in the making since practising with Els as a kid, and after steady progress on the Sunshine and European Tours, Trevor has at last come of age in the States. His win over Tiger and Vijay at the Western Open in July confirmed he has the temperament to compete in the highest company, and looking back over the past six months confirms that he is now one of the very best around and getting better. Immelman's last 13 starts have yielded 7 top-10s and the only two occasions he failed to make the top-20 were Majors - in fact his lowest position of 34th came after a lay-off for the birth of his first child. 14th place at the weekend was also slightly misleading as he threw in one disastrous triple-bogey at the end of round 3 that transformed his position on the leaderboard.
Deciding whether to include Vijay here was a real dilemma. He has been impossible to get right all season, much of the time looking like a player in decline but being the old warrior that he is, Vijay always seems to bounce back as soon as we start to write him off. His record at Copperhead is excellent, finishing runner-up in 2003 before winning in 2004, and then astounding favourite backers when missing a rare cut last year! But on the basis of Sunday's finish, Singh is more than capable of winning again soon. He started the last round eight shots behind yet still made the place money. I'm not going to get over-excited about his chances, but he probably has the best chance of the stars on show here, and 14/1 is very big considering the course record.
Its also hard not to make a case for STEWART CINK at 25/1 after he finished 3rd here last year. My only nagging doubt is that he's not the most prolific winner out there, but its also true that Cink has not played a bad event since the unsuitable Open Championship. One of very few Americans to emerge from the Ryder Cup debacle with any credit, Stewart also played well for the first three rounds the following week as Tiger ran away with the Amex. He also nearly won the previous WGC event at Firestone only to be touched off by the great man, one of four top-5 finishes in his last nine starts.
Though I don't rate him in quite the same league as Immelman, SEAN O'HAIR is another exciting prospect fancied to go well here. The US are clearly struggling to produce a new generation of stars ready to improve on a dire recent Ryder Cup record, but I rate O'Hair as highly as anyone. In stark contrast to Singh, a poor final round at the weekend turned a winning chance into an average week, but there was enough encouragement from the first three rounds to confirm that the form that brought two top-4 finishes in August and September is still there. Interestingly, Sean made the top-10 on his course debut last year. In my view, he's improved in the meantime and can take a hand in the finish.
Finally, at the crazy odds of 125/1, I've just got to have a small interest on Bay Hill winner ROD PAMPLING. Copperhead is a course that favours the best iron players, hence the good record of the leading players. Pampling normally relishes such courses, which goes some way to explain his Bay Hill win and a good record at Augusta. 4th place here in 2002 also confirms his liking for the course.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
VOLVO MASTERS
6pts win SERGIO GARCIA @ 7/1 (BETFRED, LADBROKES, VCBET)
6pts win LUKE DONALD @ 9/1 (BETFRED, CORALS, PREMIERBET)
2pts ew COLIN MONTGOMERIE @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 28/1 WITH SPORTINGBET)
2pts ew BRADLEY DREDGE @ 28/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
CHRYSLER CLASSIC
3pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2.5pts ew TREVOR IMMELMAN @ 22/1 (BET DIRECT, PADDY POWER, SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew STEWART CINK @ 28/1 (BET365, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew SEAN O'HAIR @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew ROD PAMPLING @ 125/1 (PADDY POWER, SKYBET)
Good Luck!
2006 STATS: +94.75pts
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
So far, not bothering with the saver has paid dividends. The only plausible saver is to lay Casey on Betfair at around 1/3, but I'm going to take my chances anyway. After all, its heavily odds-on that none of the contenders will win here, especially considering their ordinary course records, and as long as they don't run away with it a saver is always a possibility in-running. Having said that, I do make Casey very much one to oppose around the quirky layout of Valderrama. His main quality, length and strength, is fairly irrelevant around here, where accuracy is at an absolute premium.
One of the consequences of Valderrama's quirks is that few players relish the test, and many
have atrocious records yet still turn up for the guaranteed prize money. The two that really stand out are the two highest ranked players and market leaders, SERGIO GARCIA and LUKE DONALD. The bookies aren't giving much away at 7/1 and 9/1 respectively, but its very hard to see either being far away and will both probably at least trade much shorter. Garcia has finished runner-up for the last two years and never worse than 7th. I think this course suits him as well as any as it rewards his magnificent long game and penalises his inability to hole a putt less than most. The greens here are so hard very few lengthy birdie putts are holed by anyone. This also plays into Donald's hands, who rarely misses a green in regulation. Interestingly, Donald finished like a train last year in 3rd and looked to be getting the hang of a course that takes some knowing. After all, he has only played eight rounds here and for the first time, comes here fresh.
Another player who might have benefitted over the years because of the nature of the greens here is COLIN MONTGOMERIE, who is a very big price at 25/1 considering his great course record. Joint-winner in 2002, Monty looked set for another win here last year before he and Garcia shared a catastrophic final 2-ball to let in Paul McGinley. Like Sergio, Monty will be desperate to land his first win of the season, especially when it hasn't been so bad. After all, he probably came closer to winning a Major in 2006 than he ever has or will. And he was playing well enough last month to finish 6th in Germany under far less suitable conditions.
On the basis of his course record, rising star BRADLEY DREDGE also looks worth an each-way punt at 28/1. Dredge finished 3rd to Monty and Langer in 2002 and has made the top-15 on three out of four visits to Valderrama. After an improved 2005 where he promised much but consistently failed to produce the goods on the final day and some similar frustrations in 2006, last month's runaway win at Crans Sur Sierre may have marked a significant step in the Welshman's career. It was very interesting to see him finish runner-up to Harrington in his next start at the Dunhill Links, especially considering the fact that Bradley has never looked at his best on links courses. Clearly, Dredge's confidence at an all-time high, and should be persevered with when conditions suit, as they most certainly do here.
There was a period at the weekend where I thought I'd finally cracked the impossible PGA Tour with a 50/1 winner when Justin Rose was 8 shots ahead, but alas his putting fell apart over the weekend and we had to settle for a place behind Joe Durant, more in keeping with the usual Stateside winner in that he never even appeared on my radar. The Chrysler Championship, however, has produced top-class winners in recent years in the form of VIJAY SINGH, Retief Goosen and to a lesser extent Carl Pettersson and KJ Choi. For this reason, I'm prepared to lay out a bit more than in recent weeks here.
Furthermore, there's plenty of class on show, with Ernie Els playing here for the first time along with Singh, Goosen and Adam Scott from the world's top-10. The player I really like though is another course debutant, rising star TREVOR IMMELMAN. For my money, Immelman is the emerging player of 2006. He's been labelled a superstar in the making since practising with Els as a kid, and after steady progress on the Sunshine and European Tours, Trevor has at last come of age in the States. His win over Tiger and Vijay at the Western Open in July confirmed he has the temperament to compete in the highest company, and looking back over the past six months confirms that he is now one of the very best around and getting better. Immelman's last 13 starts have yielded 7 top-10s and the only two occasions he failed to make the top-20 were Majors - in fact his lowest position of 34th came after a lay-off for the birth of his first child. 14th place at the weekend was also slightly misleading as he threw in one disastrous triple-bogey at the end of round 3 that transformed his position on the leaderboard.
Deciding whether to include Vijay here was a real dilemma. He has been impossible to get right all season, much of the time looking like a player in decline but being the old warrior that he is, Vijay always seems to bounce back as soon as we start to write him off. His record at Copperhead is excellent, finishing runner-up in 2003 before winning in 2004, and then astounding favourite backers when missing a rare cut last year! But on the basis of Sunday's finish, Singh is more than capable of winning again soon. He started the last round eight shots behind yet still made the place money. I'm not going to get over-excited about his chances, but he probably has the best chance of the stars on show here, and 14/1 is very big considering the course record.
Its also hard not to make a case for STEWART CINK at 25/1 after he finished 3rd here last year. My only nagging doubt is that he's not the most prolific winner out there, but its also true that Cink has not played a bad event since the unsuitable Open Championship. One of very few Americans to emerge from the Ryder Cup debacle with any credit, Stewart also played well for the first three rounds the following week as Tiger ran away with the Amex. He also nearly won the previous WGC event at Firestone only to be touched off by the great man, one of four top-5 finishes in his last nine starts.
Though I don't rate him in quite the same league as Immelman, SEAN O'HAIR is another exciting prospect fancied to go well here. The US are clearly struggling to produce a new generation of stars ready to improve on a dire recent Ryder Cup record, but I rate O'Hair as highly as anyone. In stark contrast to Singh, a poor final round at the weekend turned a winning chance into an average week, but there was enough encouragement from the first three rounds to confirm that the form that brought two top-4 finishes in August and September is still there. Interestingly, Sean made the top-10 on his course debut last year. In my view, he's improved in the meantime and can take a hand in the finish.
Finally, at the crazy odds of 125/1, I've just got to have a small interest on Bay Hill winner ROD PAMPLING. Copperhead is a course that favours the best iron players, hence the good record of the leading players. Pampling normally relishes such courses, which goes some way to explain his Bay Hill win and a good record at Augusta. 4th place here in 2002 also confirms his liking for the course.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
VOLVO MASTERS
6pts win SERGIO GARCIA @ 7/1 (BETFRED, LADBROKES, VCBET)
6pts win LUKE DONALD @ 9/1 (BETFRED, CORALS, PREMIERBET)
2pts ew COLIN MONTGOMERIE @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 28/1 WITH SPORTINGBET)
2pts ew BRADLEY DREDGE @ 28/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
CHRYSLER CLASSIC
3pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2.5pts ew TREVOR IMMELMAN @ 22/1 (BET DIRECT, PADDY POWER, SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew STEWART CINK @ 28/1 (BET365, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew SEAN O'HAIR @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew ROD PAMPLING @ 125/1 (PADDY POWER, SKYBET)
Good Luck!
2006 STATS: +94.75pts
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 4:15 PM
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