Betting previews for Mallorca Classic and FUNAI Classic
The penultimate week of the European Tour is upon us, with a nailbiting weekend in store for us Paul Casey backers for the Order of Merit. Padraig Harrington's win at the Dunhill Links has brought him right into the argument and the Irishman has altered his schedule to contest the Mallorca Open, while Casey rests up before next week's lucrative decider at Valderrama. The situation is this: Casey holds a 218,000 Euro lead over Harrington, 243,000 over David Howell who is not playing in Mallorca, and 445,000 over Robert Karlsson who is in this week's field. The Mallorca prize money on offer is this: 1st, 291,660, 2nd, 194,440 3rd,109,550. So Harrington must win to take the lead before Valderrama, but a top-3 finish will tighten things up considerably.
So what strategy to pursue? Having a saver seems a bit pointless, as even a Harrington win would not eliminate Howell from the equation, whereas a Karlsson win would bring him closer. There is also a similar precedent. Back in 2002, I vividly recall holding a big ante-post voucher on Retief Goosen before Harrington again won the Dunhill Links and rescheduled to play in extra events to try and close the gap. Now I'm a big Harrington fan generally, but as the Ryder Cup in Ireland suggested, he doesn't seem to carry the burden of expectation very well. That year, he played miserably in the final couple of events and Goosen won without producing anything of note himself. So under the circumstances, this week has to be about cheering against Pod.
The opposition is no pushover anyway. This event has been seriously dominated by the home contingent, with SERGIO GARCIA and Jose-Maria Olazabal winning the last two runnings. Sergio was second last year as well, and on his penultimate outing at the Ryder Cup went a long way to banishing the memories of a poor season. I've still got huge reservations about his putting though. Garcia putted great at the K Club, but then he always has in that team format, with help and support from a partner. Whether he can carry it over to strokeplay is another matter, but I'm still putting him in as a saver as he is certain to be there or thereabouts come Sunday and will probably trade a lot shorter. His compatriot and foursomes partner Olazabal is reluctantly left out of the staking plan though despite a similarly exemplary record on a course he designed. Jose-Maria's problem is that, Ryder Cup aside, he just hasn't produced much this summer to warrant such short odds.
One player well overdue some reward for a generally consistent year is SIMON KHAN. 15th at St Andrews last time was a perfectly fair effort, considering he's not really the links type, so it would seem his solid summer form is still there. Khan loves this course too, having been top-5 in 2003 and 2004, and being right in contention last year before a poor weekend dropped him down to 21st. 40/1 looks very reasonable each-way value.
At the same odds, I'm giving JOSE-MANUEL LARA one more chance to gain a long overdue first victory. Lara's form at Pula is beyond question - runner-up last year and top-11 the two previous years. A fine player from tee to green if a little suspect with the putter, Pula is perfect for him. Generally he is very consistent in this part of the world so represents decent each-way value at least.
Austrian MARKUS BRIER opened his winning account in his native land earlier in the year, and has a fair chance of following up on a course that suits. Brier came 4th here a couple of years back having contended throughout, and made the top-22 on both other visits. Recent top-10s in Germany and Holland confirm his wellbeing and suggest 80/1 is simply too big at this level.
Finally, in my endless search for a 100/1 winner, I'm going for SIMON WAKEFIELD to get some reward for a good season. The general problem has been putting in three good rounds only to blow it with one disaster, but I'm sure he's well aware of this and must fancy his chances on a course where he made the frame last year.
After yet another barren week in the States, where yet another three-figured price winner delivered, there's more pro-am hell in store at the FUNAI Classic. The market here is headed by Vijay Singh and recent winner Davis Love. Singh makes no appeal whatsoever after the year he's had, and a very disappointing finish at St Andrews. Love does have plenty of course form in the book as well as recent form, but even when he was undoubtably world-class he wasn't a player to take short odds about and is readily swerved here. Once again, the strategy here is to keep stakes to a minimum.
My idea of the best bet is England's JUSTIN ROSE. Justin is another player overdue a win, but this summer has at least been knocking on the door again. The fact that he came third in this event last year is a massive positive, as are the four consecutive top-15 finishes in September. My second selection is also a European, though CARL PETTERSSON has a couple of wins to his name over here. Having just missed out on the Ryder Cup, I'm backing the big Swede to bounce back swiftly this side of the Atlantic. This event is another putting contest, in other words perfect for Pettersson who has made the top-15 two years running in this event and generally has a fine record in Florida.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
MALLORCA CLASSIC
5pts win SERGIO GARCIA @ 6/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew SIMON KHAN @ 40/1 (STAN JAMES, LADBROKES, BET365)
1pt ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew MARKUS BRIER @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew SIMON WAKEFIELD @ 100/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
FUNAI CLASSIC
1pt ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew CARL PETTERSSON @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
Good Luck!
2006 STATS: +90pts
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
So what strategy to pursue? Having a saver seems a bit pointless, as even a Harrington win would not eliminate Howell from the equation, whereas a Karlsson win would bring him closer. There is also a similar precedent. Back in 2002, I vividly recall holding a big ante-post voucher on Retief Goosen before Harrington again won the Dunhill Links and rescheduled to play in extra events to try and close the gap. Now I'm a big Harrington fan generally, but as the Ryder Cup in Ireland suggested, he doesn't seem to carry the burden of expectation very well. That year, he played miserably in the final couple of events and Goosen won without producing anything of note himself. So under the circumstances, this week has to be about cheering against Pod.
The opposition is no pushover anyway. This event has been seriously dominated by the home contingent, with SERGIO GARCIA and Jose-Maria Olazabal winning the last two runnings. Sergio was second last year as well, and on his penultimate outing at the Ryder Cup went a long way to banishing the memories of a poor season. I've still got huge reservations about his putting though. Garcia putted great at the K Club, but then he always has in that team format, with help and support from a partner. Whether he can carry it over to strokeplay is another matter, but I'm still putting him in as a saver as he is certain to be there or thereabouts come Sunday and will probably trade a lot shorter. His compatriot and foursomes partner Olazabal is reluctantly left out of the staking plan though despite a similarly exemplary record on a course he designed. Jose-Maria's problem is that, Ryder Cup aside, he just hasn't produced much this summer to warrant such short odds.
One player well overdue some reward for a generally consistent year is SIMON KHAN. 15th at St Andrews last time was a perfectly fair effort, considering he's not really the links type, so it would seem his solid summer form is still there. Khan loves this course too, having been top-5 in 2003 and 2004, and being right in contention last year before a poor weekend dropped him down to 21st. 40/1 looks very reasonable each-way value.
At the same odds, I'm giving JOSE-MANUEL LARA one more chance to gain a long overdue first victory. Lara's form at Pula is beyond question - runner-up last year and top-11 the two previous years. A fine player from tee to green if a little suspect with the putter, Pula is perfect for him. Generally he is very consistent in this part of the world so represents decent each-way value at least.
Austrian MARKUS BRIER opened his winning account in his native land earlier in the year, and has a fair chance of following up on a course that suits. Brier came 4th here a couple of years back having contended throughout, and made the top-22 on both other visits. Recent top-10s in Germany and Holland confirm his wellbeing and suggest 80/1 is simply too big at this level.
Finally, in my endless search for a 100/1 winner, I'm going for SIMON WAKEFIELD to get some reward for a good season. The general problem has been putting in three good rounds only to blow it with one disaster, but I'm sure he's well aware of this and must fancy his chances on a course where he made the frame last year.
After yet another barren week in the States, where yet another three-figured price winner delivered, there's more pro-am hell in store at the FUNAI Classic. The market here is headed by Vijay Singh and recent winner Davis Love. Singh makes no appeal whatsoever after the year he's had, and a very disappointing finish at St Andrews. Love does have plenty of course form in the book as well as recent form, but even when he was undoubtably world-class he wasn't a player to take short odds about and is readily swerved here. Once again, the strategy here is to keep stakes to a minimum.
My idea of the best bet is England's JUSTIN ROSE. Justin is another player overdue a win, but this summer has at least been knocking on the door again. The fact that he came third in this event last year is a massive positive, as are the four consecutive top-15 finishes in September. My second selection is also a European, though CARL PETTERSSON has a couple of wins to his name over here. Having just missed out on the Ryder Cup, I'm backing the big Swede to bounce back swiftly this side of the Atlantic. This event is another putting contest, in other words perfect for Pettersson who has made the top-15 two years running in this event and generally has a fine record in Florida.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
MALLORCA CLASSIC
5pts win SERGIO GARCIA @ 6/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew SIMON KHAN @ 40/1 (STAN JAMES, LADBROKES, BET365)
1pt ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew MARKUS BRIER @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew SIMON WAKEFIELD @ 100/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
FUNAI CLASSIC
1pt ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew CARL PETTERSSON @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
Good Luck!
2006 STATS: +90pts
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 2:20 PM
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