Golf Betting Preview for W/E 8/10/06
Only three weeks left of the 2005-6 European Tour, along with this year's Order of Merit title. My ante-post selection Paul Casey is sitting pretty with a 120,000 Euro lead and is best priced at 1/2, but I wouldn't take anything for granted just yet. He looked knackered at The Grove last week, not surprising after a very tough stint that included a Ryder Cup and 130 odds holes at Wentworth previously. Casey is as fit as anyone so perhaps he'll bounce back at the lucrative Dunhill Links on Thursday, but realistically he's never been a great links player and I'd be happy to see him make the top-15. His closest pursuer by far is David Howell, who worryingly has a fine record in this event with three top-6 finishes. There is obviously a big temptation to have a saver but its not really worth it as Howell could quite conceivably make up the deficit without winning over the last two big scoring opportunities here and at Valderrama in 16 days. And I don't fancy Howell this week. His best form here has been when the scoring has been easy and conditions friendly. Looking at the weekend weather forecast, I doubt that will be the case and the very best links players will probably come to the fore. Though he's a fine player, I've never considered Howell in that bracket. Third placed Robert Karlsson is still within striking range from 360,000 Euros behind, and if fourth-placed fellow Swede HENRIK STENSON continues his excellent recent form and wins here, he could still be a factor.
The most interesting stat pointing to Stenson is that he finished 6th here in 2003 when nowhere near the player he is now. Last year he followed up with third place so obviously is happy with the format. Looking back at Stenson's overall season, its easy to make the case that he's going to follow up on his recent victory in Germany soon. Over the winter and in the early months, he was arguably the best player in Europe, culminating in 4th place at Sawgrass. At that stage he was hyped into roughly 6th favourite for the Masters, so perhaps its no surprise that his form took a nosedive for a short period while he became accustomed to his new status and expectations. But in recent weeks he's looked right back to his best with that German win, and was one of the unsung heroes of the Ryder Cup with some sparkling form.
I could also see PADRAIG HARRINGTON getting into this argument yet, but he absolutely has to win this week. That is no forlorn hope by any means as there are few better links players in the world than Harrington, as the Irishman's record in this event testifies. In the five runnings of the Dunhill Links, Pod won in 2002 and has twice made the top-5 in other years. Since the end of May, he has been runner-up three times and made the top six on three other occasions, and had a solid enough score back in 17th behind Tiger last week. Harrington is overdue a win, and this event probably represents as good a chance has he gets all season.
LEE WESTWOOD has improved with age as a links exponent. When he was at his globetrotting winning machine best back in the late 90s, he never looked a natural for this type of golf and even confessed to hating St Andrews, where two of this week's four rounds are played. Yet strangely despite his star slipping from that high since the early days, Westwood has put together a solid set of Open finishes, won this in 2003 and finished 5th and 7th in the two years since. Joint top points scorer in the Ryder Cup, and generally in good form throughout the late summer, 33/1 looks a very big price for the Worksop wonder to end an uncharacteristic losing streak.
All of these European contenders though will have to get past the formidable presence of ERNIE ELS, the finest links player of them all. Runner-up twice in four completions here, following on from the best overall record of anyone in its forerunner of the Dunhill Cup not to mention an awesome record in the Open Championship and other links affairs around the world, its very hard to see Ernie not winning this one before his career is out. Distant fifth behind Tiger last week suggests he's finally coming back to his best after injury. 8/1 may be considerably shorter than anyone else in the field, but its still not bad considering the conditions. If the weather is even moderately bad, I don't reckon we need look beyond about 15 players here.
Completing a more expensive staking plan than usual, I'm having a rare bet on DARREN CLARKE. As a renowned poor finisher, I tend to avoid Darren, but I can't quibble with either his overall links record or his absolutely brilliant form at the Ryder Cup. After a shortened season for well documented personal reasons, there must be a good chance Clarke will finish the year strongly. Again if the weather turns bad, there are few players I'd rather be on.
In the States, attention moves to the Chrysler Classic of Greensboro. With the favourite at 22/1 on this increasingly random tour, I'm considerably less confident about the outcome. However, course form at Forest Oaks has proved a very good guide in the past, so the selections almost picked themselves from a limited shortlist. I strongly fancy STEVE STRICKER to land an overdue win here. Since returning from a long lay-off with injury and form problems, Stricker's form has been splendidly consistent. In 14 starts he's made the top-10 in half of those, including in each of his last four starts. He must go well back on the course where he made the top-3 back in 1996. Even though he was a class player back then, I wonder if he ever notched up such a consistent set of figures as recently.
Again defending champ KJ CHOI cannot be ignored on the basis of a tremendous track record. Of the Korean's last 16 rounds here, 11 have been in the 60s and he's never finished worse than 7th on his last four visits to Forest Oaks. 2006 form is solid enough too. KJ made back-to-back top-10s in August including the USPGA and has only missed three cuts since April - forgiveable as they were the first three Majors.
Despite some indifferent form recently, I've got to back TIM CLARK as 33/1 looks too big for the best player in the event yet to win in the States. As a multiple winner worldwide, Clark has nothing to prove. Lets not forget he's finished runner-up at the Masters this year, and not missed a single cut. The South African is usually seen to his best on courses that favour accuracy and good iron play. Forest Oaks is such a track, as last year's 6th place suggests. Finally JONATHAN BYRD has a decent each-way chance at 40/1. Byrd finished top-5 here in both 2001 and 2002 before injuries set his career back. There have been plenty of signs of life recently, particularly 5th in Canada on his penultimate start.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
DUNHILL LINKS CHAMPIONSHIP
8pts win ERNIE ELS @ 15/2 (UKBETTING, SPORTING ODDS, BETFRED, BETFAIR)
2.5pts ew HENRIK STENSON @ 18/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew DARREN CLARKE @ 33/1 (BETDIRECT, SKYBET)
CHRYSLER CLASSIC
3pts ew STEVE STRICKER @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew KJ CHOI @ 22/1 (BETDIRECT, VCBET, SPORTING ODDS)
1pt ew TIM CLARK @ 33/1 (BETDIRECT, BETFRED, CORAL)
1pt ew JONATHAN BYRD @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: +56pts
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
The most interesting stat pointing to Stenson is that he finished 6th here in 2003 when nowhere near the player he is now. Last year he followed up with third place so obviously is happy with the format. Looking back at Stenson's overall season, its easy to make the case that he's going to follow up on his recent victory in Germany soon. Over the winter and in the early months, he was arguably the best player in Europe, culminating in 4th place at Sawgrass. At that stage he was hyped into roughly 6th favourite for the Masters, so perhaps its no surprise that his form took a nosedive for a short period while he became accustomed to his new status and expectations. But in recent weeks he's looked right back to his best with that German win, and was one of the unsung heroes of the Ryder Cup with some sparkling form.
I could also see PADRAIG HARRINGTON getting into this argument yet, but he absolutely has to win this week. That is no forlorn hope by any means as there are few better links players in the world than Harrington, as the Irishman's record in this event testifies. In the five runnings of the Dunhill Links, Pod won in 2002 and has twice made the top-5 in other years. Since the end of May, he has been runner-up three times and made the top six on three other occasions, and had a solid enough score back in 17th behind Tiger last week. Harrington is overdue a win, and this event probably represents as good a chance has he gets all season.
LEE WESTWOOD has improved with age as a links exponent. When he was at his globetrotting winning machine best back in the late 90s, he never looked a natural for this type of golf and even confessed to hating St Andrews, where two of this week's four rounds are played. Yet strangely despite his star slipping from that high since the early days, Westwood has put together a solid set of Open finishes, won this in 2003 and finished 5th and 7th in the two years since. Joint top points scorer in the Ryder Cup, and generally in good form throughout the late summer, 33/1 looks a very big price for the Worksop wonder to end an uncharacteristic losing streak.
All of these European contenders though will have to get past the formidable presence of ERNIE ELS, the finest links player of them all. Runner-up twice in four completions here, following on from the best overall record of anyone in its forerunner of the Dunhill Cup not to mention an awesome record in the Open Championship and other links affairs around the world, its very hard to see Ernie not winning this one before his career is out. Distant fifth behind Tiger last week suggests he's finally coming back to his best after injury. 8/1 may be considerably shorter than anyone else in the field, but its still not bad considering the conditions. If the weather is even moderately bad, I don't reckon we need look beyond about 15 players here.
Completing a more expensive staking plan than usual, I'm having a rare bet on DARREN CLARKE. As a renowned poor finisher, I tend to avoid Darren, but I can't quibble with either his overall links record or his absolutely brilliant form at the Ryder Cup. After a shortened season for well documented personal reasons, there must be a good chance Clarke will finish the year strongly. Again if the weather turns bad, there are few players I'd rather be on.
In the States, attention moves to the Chrysler Classic of Greensboro. With the favourite at 22/1 on this increasingly random tour, I'm considerably less confident about the outcome. However, course form at Forest Oaks has proved a very good guide in the past, so the selections almost picked themselves from a limited shortlist. I strongly fancy STEVE STRICKER to land an overdue win here. Since returning from a long lay-off with injury and form problems, Stricker's form has been splendidly consistent. In 14 starts he's made the top-10 in half of those, including in each of his last four starts. He must go well back on the course where he made the top-3 back in 1996. Even though he was a class player back then, I wonder if he ever notched up such a consistent set of figures as recently.
Again defending champ KJ CHOI cannot be ignored on the basis of a tremendous track record. Of the Korean's last 16 rounds here, 11 have been in the 60s and he's never finished worse than 7th on his last four visits to Forest Oaks. 2006 form is solid enough too. KJ made back-to-back top-10s in August including the USPGA and has only missed three cuts since April - forgiveable as they were the first three Majors.
Despite some indifferent form recently, I've got to back TIM CLARK as 33/1 looks too big for the best player in the event yet to win in the States. As a multiple winner worldwide, Clark has nothing to prove. Lets not forget he's finished runner-up at the Masters this year, and not missed a single cut. The South African is usually seen to his best on courses that favour accuracy and good iron play. Forest Oaks is such a track, as last year's 6th place suggests. Finally JONATHAN BYRD has a decent each-way chance at 40/1. Byrd finished top-5 here in both 2001 and 2002 before injuries set his career back. There have been plenty of signs of life recently, particularly 5th in Canada on his penultimate start.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
DUNHILL LINKS CHAMPIONSHIP
8pts win ERNIE ELS @ 15/2 (UKBETTING, SPORTING ODDS, BETFRED, BETFAIR)
2.5pts ew HENRIK STENSON @ 18/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew DARREN CLARKE @ 33/1 (BETDIRECT, SKYBET)
CHRYSLER CLASSIC
3pts ew STEVE STRICKER @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew KJ CHOI @ 22/1 (BETDIRECT, VCBET, SPORTING ODDS)
1pt ew TIM CLARK @ 33/1 (BETDIRECT, BETFRED, CORAL)
1pt ew JONATHAN BYRD @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: +56pts
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 1:38 PM
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