Resurgent Olly big value at Memorial
Its back to the usual sub-standard fare in Europe this week. Despite good prize money and a great course at Celtic Manor, hardly any of the big names on show at Wentworth over the weekend have stayed on for the Wales Open. The market leader is Miguel-Angel Jiminez, who hit one of the rounds of 2005 with a last day 62 to win the title here. Despite his best ever Wentworth finish confirming Jiminez is in good form, he makes no appeal at a best price of 10/1. Neither does the other challenger for favouritism, Michael Campbell, make much appeal after a disappointing weekend where he confessed afterwards to not really hitting the heights of last season just yet.
This looks primed for another big-priced winner, (though probably not as unlikely as Jeff Maggert last week!). The only obvious contender for me is the homegrown BRADLEY DREDGE. We saw recently with Francesco Molinari how a national Open can often bring the best out in a player, and Dredge certainly represents the best of the Welsh. 2005 was undoubtably Bradley's best year to date with a series of good finishes, even if his last day putting was a regular concern. Recent weeks have suggested he is coming to form just in time for the summer events and a charge for a Ryder Cup spot. In four weeks since an early-season break, Dredge has made all four cuts and has two top-10 finishes.
Having backed him several times recently, it would be madness to leave out last year's runner-up JOSE-MANUEL LARA. Regular readers will know the reasons inside out by now. He has an outstanding long game, and is generally best on the tougher courses where putting isn't such an issue. Having shown his liking for Celtic Manor, this must represent a good chance to open his European Tour account.
Finally, for an outsider, take a chance on JOSE-FELIPE LIMA. The young French player looks an excellent prospect to me, with a series of good efforts to his name over the past three years. Three consecutive top-20 finishes in April suggested the form was becoming more consistent, though his last couple of efforts in better company have been a tad disappointing. Nevertheless, he has won already on Tour so there shouldn't be any worries on that score, and came a promising 8th place on this course last year.
Without a doubt, the attention of most golf fans will migrate back to the US this week for the Memorial Tournament. A genuine world-class field is on show, with only Tiger Woods missing from the world's top 5. This event is normally won by one of the top players, but there are many problems with pursuing that strategy. Phil Mickelson deserves to start favourite, but I wonder whether he will be fully tuned up on his first start for 3 weeks. This is the beginning of the run-up to the US Open, where Mickelson will bid for the second leg of the Grand Slam. If recent years have been anything to go by with regard to Lefty's preparation, expect him to start peaking next week. Ernie Els has a fine record here, but shows little sign of regaining his pre-injury form just yet. Similarly on past Memorial form, we should be remortgaging our houses to take the 16/1 about Vijay Singh, but his last three efforts have been, frankly, poor. Adam Scott has never shown his best form here.
So of the leading players, we're left by default with JIM FURYK and RETIEF GOOSEN. Of Furyk's last 12 starts, 5 have resulted in top-10 finishes with three further top-20s. At Memorial his record is even better, with a win and three other top-10s from his last eight visits and never missing the cut. 14/1 about an infrequent winner like Furyk is hardly giving money away, but his chance is extremely obvious round here. As for Goosen, 2006 has been solid if unspectacular so far which enables us to take generous odds of 16/1. I'm not concerned in the least with a disappointing effort at Wentworth, where he has never prospered and instead prefer to look at his US Tour form. Four of his last five US starts have resulted in top-10s, with three places. Encouragingly, Goose has made the top-8 on both visits to Muirfield Village too.
The one player on either side of the Atlantic whose price really screams value though is JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL. Sunday's fast-finishing 14th place at Wentworth was a more than acceptable return on his first start for six weeks. He should be well primed for a run at Muirfield Village, a course that will surely suit this world-class iron player. Lets just remind ourselves of Olly's 2006 form. 7th at Sawgrass, 2nd at Sugarloaf and 3rd at Augusta in consecutive weeks in March/April. This following on from 2nd place at Warwick Hills and two other top-20 finishes. Clearly OIly is back to his world-class best, and he should be nowhere near 50/1 for any event when in this form.
Good Luck!
WALES OPEN
2pts ew BRADLEY DREDGE @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JOSE-FELIPE LIMA @ 100/1 (LADBROKES)
MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT
2pts ew JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew JIM FURYK @ 14/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew RETIEF GOOSEN @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-66pts)2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
This looks primed for another big-priced winner, (though probably not as unlikely as Jeff Maggert last week!). The only obvious contender for me is the homegrown BRADLEY DREDGE. We saw recently with Francesco Molinari how a national Open can often bring the best out in a player, and Dredge certainly represents the best of the Welsh. 2005 was undoubtably Bradley's best year to date with a series of good finishes, even if his last day putting was a regular concern. Recent weeks have suggested he is coming to form just in time for the summer events and a charge for a Ryder Cup spot. In four weeks since an early-season break, Dredge has made all four cuts and has two top-10 finishes.
Having backed him several times recently, it would be madness to leave out last year's runner-up JOSE-MANUEL LARA. Regular readers will know the reasons inside out by now. He has an outstanding long game, and is generally best on the tougher courses where putting isn't such an issue. Having shown his liking for Celtic Manor, this must represent a good chance to open his European Tour account.
Finally, for an outsider, take a chance on JOSE-FELIPE LIMA. The young French player looks an excellent prospect to me, with a series of good efforts to his name over the past three years. Three consecutive top-20 finishes in April suggested the form was becoming more consistent, though his last couple of efforts in better company have been a tad disappointing. Nevertheless, he has won already on Tour so there shouldn't be any worries on that score, and came a promising 8th place on this course last year.
Without a doubt, the attention of most golf fans will migrate back to the US this week for the Memorial Tournament. A genuine world-class field is on show, with only Tiger Woods missing from the world's top 5. This event is normally won by one of the top players, but there are many problems with pursuing that strategy. Phil Mickelson deserves to start favourite, but I wonder whether he will be fully tuned up on his first start for 3 weeks. This is the beginning of the run-up to the US Open, where Mickelson will bid for the second leg of the Grand Slam. If recent years have been anything to go by with regard to Lefty's preparation, expect him to start peaking next week. Ernie Els has a fine record here, but shows little sign of regaining his pre-injury form just yet. Similarly on past Memorial form, we should be remortgaging our houses to take the 16/1 about Vijay Singh, but his last three efforts have been, frankly, poor. Adam Scott has never shown his best form here.
So of the leading players, we're left by default with JIM FURYK and RETIEF GOOSEN. Of Furyk's last 12 starts, 5 have resulted in top-10 finishes with three further top-20s. At Memorial his record is even better, with a win and three other top-10s from his last eight visits and never missing the cut. 14/1 about an infrequent winner like Furyk is hardly giving money away, but his chance is extremely obvious round here. As for Goosen, 2006 has been solid if unspectacular so far which enables us to take generous odds of 16/1. I'm not concerned in the least with a disappointing effort at Wentworth, where he has never prospered and instead prefer to look at his US Tour form. Four of his last five US starts have resulted in top-10s, with three places. Encouragingly, Goose has made the top-8 on both visits to Muirfield Village too.
The one player on either side of the Atlantic whose price really screams value though is JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL. Sunday's fast-finishing 14th place at Wentworth was a more than acceptable return on his first start for six weeks. He should be well primed for a run at Muirfield Village, a course that will surely suit this world-class iron player. Lets just remind ourselves of Olly's 2006 form. 7th at Sawgrass, 2nd at Sugarloaf and 3rd at Augusta in consecutive weeks in March/April. This following on from 2nd place at Warwick Hills and two other top-20 finishes. Clearly OIly is back to his world-class best, and he should be nowhere near 50/1 for any event when in this form.
Good Luck!
WALES OPEN
2pts ew BRADLEY DREDGE @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JOSE-FELIPE LIMA @ 100/1 (LADBROKES)
MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT
2pts ew JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew JIM FURYK @ 14/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew RETIEF GOOSEN @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-66pts)2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 4:25 PM
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