Casey and Cabrera to launch money list bids
At last, we've reached that great time of the year when, for the next 5 months, we are pretty much guaranteed two world-class events on either side of the Atlantic every week. The European Tour begins a spell of lucrative tournaments with the British Masters at The Belfry and therefore the race for the Order of Merit now starts in earnest. All is still to play for as leader David Howell has only 1M Euros to his name, almost certainly no more than 40% of the total required to win. It looks even more wide open than ever this year with usual jolly Ernie Els struggling for form. To win the OOM, you need some big showings in the Majors and WGC events, especially if like Els, dual-champ Goosen, Garcia, Donald and Olazabal you only play in a limited number of European events. The betting at present is ridiculously biased in favour of the four market leaders and offers no end of each-way value.
The four contenders according to the betting are Howell, Henrik Stenson, Els and Goosen. I've already mentioned Els' lack of form. Goosen proved again last year that he is disinterested in a third OOM, and will miss key events at the end of the year. In any case, he's not playing at The Belfry so his price won't shorten in the short-term. I do rate Stenson very highly, and Howell certainly has a great chance if he can reproduce the European form of the last two summers. But those two are hardly in another league to the likes of PAUL CASEY, ANGEL CABRERA, MICHAEL CAMPBELL and others who are at least eight times the price just because they trail be a few hundred thousand at this early stage. Ladbrokes are still offering generous each-way terms of 1/4 odds the first 4 so I recommend backing Casey and Cabrera each-way with them.
Both of these two are also in my staking plan for this week. But as far as the OOM is concerned, 66/1 chance Cabrera finished 5th last year, along with two 11th places in the previous three years. The huge hitting Argentinian always plays well at this stage of the year in Europe, and has the potential to surprise some of the bigger names in the Majors. In the past his prize money tally has suffered as a consequence of the infrequency of his wins, but he isn't a bottler. The way Cabrera won the Volvo PGA last year for instance, was exemplary. With a bit of luck at the right time, he could easily emerge as a world-class player. Casey's price of 33/1 is even crazier. Paul plays a very heavy European schedule, and has been an absolute model of consistency since last autumn. He's had no luck in recent final rounds, but another win is surely around the corner. If he were to win this week, on a course where he won the last event played there, Casey would probably be single figures on Monday to win the money list, let alone finish in the first 4. As for Campbell, 66/1 would be massive if he were to recapture his 2005 form. I'm not overly concerned that this streaky player hasn't done anything notable since January as, like Cabrera, his season never seems to get going until the big money events in May. Backing him this week without a recent outing would be a risky business, but expect Cambo to be right back in the groove for Wentworth and his US Open defence. His price with Ladbrokes is much shorter than the best, so I recommend a win only bet on him with Skybet.
So onto this week's event at The Belfry. I don't think this event is too difficult a puzzle to solve. The course is not straightforward by any means, favouring the longer hitters and best iron players. I'll be surprised if more than 25 players finish under par. After working my way through the first 30 or so in the betting, I was left with a shortlist of only nine players who I give a decent chance to. Of those 9, I'm overlooking Colin Montgomerie whose form I am unconvinced about. Richard Green also bites the dust on the grounds that he doesn't win very often and bottled an outstanding chance to turn over Woods and Els in Dubai. The Aussie left-hander remains worth keeping an eye on in speciality bets, especially match bets and finishing positions. David Howell is reluctantly ignored due to a less than impressive course record, though it should be remembered the course form available is from 2000-2003, when Howell was nowhere near the player he is now. The biggest danger to my selections though, has to come from Padraig Harrington. Pod famously blew the B & H International here 6 years ago by being disqualified for signing an incorrect scorecard when 5 clear with a round to go. He also finished in the first three in 2002 and 2003. Clearly this is about a perfect a course for Harrington's usually world-class iron play, but I just can't find anything this season to suggest he's about to win. In fact, he has yet to post a top-10 finish in 2006. Were he to turn it around though, I could live to regret ignoring the 16/1 available here and more to the point, the 25/1 available for the Order of Merit.
Anyway, that leaves us with a shortlist of 5. Casey, impressive winner of the last event played here in 2003, is a very obvious choice. I've already argued his case for the Order of Merit, and this is a great opening opportunity. Cabrera too has a course record to die for, winner in 2002, runner-up the previous year and never worse than 9th. Ignore last week's missed cut in Italy, as that event was probably a warm-up before his favourite spell of the season. There was nothing wrong with his form 4 weeks ago at the Masters.
This course was the scene of HENRIK STENSON's first professional win at a huge price back in 2001. Clearly the Swede is about a hundred times more accomplished nowadays and must fancy his chances. After the win in Qatar and third-place at Sawgrass, 14/1 for an event in Europe would have seemed a bit fanciful but a couple of poor efforts and blowing a last round lead in China has seen his odds drift. When it comes to the central requirement at The Belfry, hitting it long and straight, nobody fits the bill better in this field than Stenson.
The other two selections are bigger prices, NICK DOUGHERTY and JOSE-MANUEL LARA. Dougherty is becoming expensive to follow, but I'm adamant he'll win this summer and at 40/1 he'll pay for all the previous losing weeks and some more. It would be pretty meaningless to look at Dougherty's disappointing efforts here in 2002 and 2003 when he was still very inexperienced. More interesting is 12th place behind Stenson back in his rookie year. In Nick's last event, he hit four sub-70 rounds so there's no reason to doubt his form. He too, should possess the credentials for this course. Finally Lara has to be included at massive odds of 80/1. I know he is yet to win a tournament, but his odds don't reflect the ultra-consistent form from tee to green Lara has shown lately. He is definitely one for speciality markets, such as a sell of his finishing position in the mid-30s.
Whereas in Europe, my bets are based around a belief that the winner will come from one of the market leaders, I take the completely opposite view of the US event, the Byron Nelson Classic. With Woods, Mickelson and Goosen absent, there are question marks surrounding so many of the contenders. Ernie Els and Sergio Garcia are struggling. Vijay Singh was a massive disappointment at the weekend, where a last round 81 when still in contention led some people to suggest he may be in terminal decline. A similar thing happened to Vijay at Sawgrass so its not an argument to be dismissed out of hand, but it would take a very brave man to write off this gutsy workaholic. It would be typical of Singh, with his pride wounded, to bounce back here but for now my patience with him has snapped. Adam Scott has never played here and is not generally suited to short par-70 courses. This leaves last week's winner Jim Furyk with a very big chance, but I wouldn't dream of backing him at odds of 10/1 to land rare back-to-back wins. His career form at Las Colinas is only fair, and he's never been a prolific winner.
Looking down the field, the candidates don't fare much better either. Geoff Ogilvy, Tim Clark and Luke Donald might have been considered were it not for either poor course form or injury worries. Scott Verplank looks bound to be there or thereabouts as usual, but rarely wins and makes more appeal in speciality markets. By process of elimination, I think its a fair punt that FRED COUPLES can land this, 19 years after last winning the event. As you'd expect for a player who has long fought against back trouble, Couples' record here is mixed. Aside the win in 1987, Freddy finished runner-up in 1998 and has another three top-10s to his name. 2006 has been his best year for a decade, with only a poor putting stroke on the final holes costing him victory at the Nissan Open and letting Mickelson get away from him on the back 9 at Augusta. I'm sure Freddy was instantly gutted to lose his chance in the Masters in that fashion, but on reflection he must be proud to have finished 3rd and shown that he can still compete at the very highest level. I'll be closing my eyes if he has a testing 3-footer to win on Sunday, but that shouldn't deter an interest at 40/1.
There's been a few big priced winners over the years in this event, with Robert Damron, Ted Purdy, Loren Roberts and John Cook all starting at three figure odds in the last decade. With so many of the shorter priced players unfancied, I've found a batch of outsiders who might represent a bit of value. Accuracy from tee to green is very much required on these courses, which must bring JERRY KELLY into calculations at 80/1. Kelly is usually seen to his best on such courses, and confirmed his wellbeing with a solid 5th place at Hilton Head Island last month. That was a third top-10 of the year for Jerry, who has shown before he is only just below top-class under the right conditions. Both he and Couples are also well worth a look in speciality markets.
2006 has been the best ever year for Australian golf, with Appleby, Pampling, Ogilvy and Baddeley landing 5 US Tour events between them already. The next Aussie to join that list could well be STEPHEN LEANEY. A multiple winner in Europe and Australasia, Leaney's career highlight has to be finishing runner-up to Jim Furyk in the 2003 US Open. He is another who is usually seen to best effect on courses that reward his accuracy, and has finished a creditable 7th and 27th in the last two years here. Just lately his stats have been particularly impressive without managing to string four good rounds together to seriously alert the judges. At 125/1, its worth having a punt that this is the week this proven winner finally clicks in the States.
My final two selections are extremely speculative. CHARLEY HOFFMAN and DAVID BRANSHAW have both run up some nice figures recently based around their tee to green game. At 150/1, a continuation of that form would give them an outside squeak. Slight preference is for Branshaw, who also finished 14th on his sole visit in 2004.
Good Luck!
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1 (LADBROKES)
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1 (LADBROKES)
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1 (SKYBET)
BRITISH MASTERS
3pts ew HENRIK STENSON @ 14/1 (BET DIRECT)
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 18/1 (BET DIRECT, BET365, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 80/1 (365, CORAL, PADDY POWER)
BYRON NELSON CLASSIC
1pt ew FRED COUPLES @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JERRY KELLY @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew STEPHEN LEANEY @ 125/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew DAVID BRANSDON @ 150/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 200/1 WITH SPORTING ODDS/BET)
0.5pts ew CHARLEY HOFFMAN @ 150/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-2.25pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
NOTE: LAST WEEK'S STATS WERE SLIGHTLY WRONG. I HAD FORGOTTEN TO ADD THE PLACE RETURNS OF JOSE-MANUEL LARA THE PREVIOUS WEEK.
The four contenders according to the betting are Howell, Henrik Stenson, Els and Goosen. I've already mentioned Els' lack of form. Goosen proved again last year that he is disinterested in a third OOM, and will miss key events at the end of the year. In any case, he's not playing at The Belfry so his price won't shorten in the short-term. I do rate Stenson very highly, and Howell certainly has a great chance if he can reproduce the European form of the last two summers. But those two are hardly in another league to the likes of PAUL CASEY, ANGEL CABRERA, MICHAEL CAMPBELL and others who are at least eight times the price just because they trail be a few hundred thousand at this early stage. Ladbrokes are still offering generous each-way terms of 1/4 odds the first 4 so I recommend backing Casey and Cabrera each-way with them.
Both of these two are also in my staking plan for this week. But as far as the OOM is concerned, 66/1 chance Cabrera finished 5th last year, along with two 11th places in the previous three years. The huge hitting Argentinian always plays well at this stage of the year in Europe, and has the potential to surprise some of the bigger names in the Majors. In the past his prize money tally has suffered as a consequence of the infrequency of his wins, but he isn't a bottler. The way Cabrera won the Volvo PGA last year for instance, was exemplary. With a bit of luck at the right time, he could easily emerge as a world-class player. Casey's price of 33/1 is even crazier. Paul plays a very heavy European schedule, and has been an absolute model of consistency since last autumn. He's had no luck in recent final rounds, but another win is surely around the corner. If he were to win this week, on a course where he won the last event played there, Casey would probably be single figures on Monday to win the money list, let alone finish in the first 4. As for Campbell, 66/1 would be massive if he were to recapture his 2005 form. I'm not overly concerned that this streaky player hasn't done anything notable since January as, like Cabrera, his season never seems to get going until the big money events in May. Backing him this week without a recent outing would be a risky business, but expect Cambo to be right back in the groove for Wentworth and his US Open defence. His price with Ladbrokes is much shorter than the best, so I recommend a win only bet on him with Skybet.
So onto this week's event at The Belfry. I don't think this event is too difficult a puzzle to solve. The course is not straightforward by any means, favouring the longer hitters and best iron players. I'll be surprised if more than 25 players finish under par. After working my way through the first 30 or so in the betting, I was left with a shortlist of only nine players who I give a decent chance to. Of those 9, I'm overlooking Colin Montgomerie whose form I am unconvinced about. Richard Green also bites the dust on the grounds that he doesn't win very often and bottled an outstanding chance to turn over Woods and Els in Dubai. The Aussie left-hander remains worth keeping an eye on in speciality bets, especially match bets and finishing positions. David Howell is reluctantly ignored due to a less than impressive course record, though it should be remembered the course form available is from 2000-2003, when Howell was nowhere near the player he is now. The biggest danger to my selections though, has to come from Padraig Harrington. Pod famously blew the B & H International here 6 years ago by being disqualified for signing an incorrect scorecard when 5 clear with a round to go. He also finished in the first three in 2002 and 2003. Clearly this is about a perfect a course for Harrington's usually world-class iron play, but I just can't find anything this season to suggest he's about to win. In fact, he has yet to post a top-10 finish in 2006. Were he to turn it around though, I could live to regret ignoring the 16/1 available here and more to the point, the 25/1 available for the Order of Merit.
Anyway, that leaves us with a shortlist of 5. Casey, impressive winner of the last event played here in 2003, is a very obvious choice. I've already argued his case for the Order of Merit, and this is a great opening opportunity. Cabrera too has a course record to die for, winner in 2002, runner-up the previous year and never worse than 9th. Ignore last week's missed cut in Italy, as that event was probably a warm-up before his favourite spell of the season. There was nothing wrong with his form 4 weeks ago at the Masters.
This course was the scene of HENRIK STENSON's first professional win at a huge price back in 2001. Clearly the Swede is about a hundred times more accomplished nowadays and must fancy his chances. After the win in Qatar and third-place at Sawgrass, 14/1 for an event in Europe would have seemed a bit fanciful but a couple of poor efforts and blowing a last round lead in China has seen his odds drift. When it comes to the central requirement at The Belfry, hitting it long and straight, nobody fits the bill better in this field than Stenson.
The other two selections are bigger prices, NICK DOUGHERTY and JOSE-MANUEL LARA. Dougherty is becoming expensive to follow, but I'm adamant he'll win this summer and at 40/1 he'll pay for all the previous losing weeks and some more. It would be pretty meaningless to look at Dougherty's disappointing efforts here in 2002 and 2003 when he was still very inexperienced. More interesting is 12th place behind Stenson back in his rookie year. In Nick's last event, he hit four sub-70 rounds so there's no reason to doubt his form. He too, should possess the credentials for this course. Finally Lara has to be included at massive odds of 80/1. I know he is yet to win a tournament, but his odds don't reflect the ultra-consistent form from tee to green Lara has shown lately. He is definitely one for speciality markets, such as a sell of his finishing position in the mid-30s.
Whereas in Europe, my bets are based around a belief that the winner will come from one of the market leaders, I take the completely opposite view of the US event, the Byron Nelson Classic. With Woods, Mickelson and Goosen absent, there are question marks surrounding so many of the contenders. Ernie Els and Sergio Garcia are struggling. Vijay Singh was a massive disappointment at the weekend, where a last round 81 when still in contention led some people to suggest he may be in terminal decline. A similar thing happened to Vijay at Sawgrass so its not an argument to be dismissed out of hand, but it would take a very brave man to write off this gutsy workaholic. It would be typical of Singh, with his pride wounded, to bounce back here but for now my patience with him has snapped. Adam Scott has never played here and is not generally suited to short par-70 courses. This leaves last week's winner Jim Furyk with a very big chance, but I wouldn't dream of backing him at odds of 10/1 to land rare back-to-back wins. His career form at Las Colinas is only fair, and he's never been a prolific winner.
Looking down the field, the candidates don't fare much better either. Geoff Ogilvy, Tim Clark and Luke Donald might have been considered were it not for either poor course form or injury worries. Scott Verplank looks bound to be there or thereabouts as usual, but rarely wins and makes more appeal in speciality markets. By process of elimination, I think its a fair punt that FRED COUPLES can land this, 19 years after last winning the event. As you'd expect for a player who has long fought against back trouble, Couples' record here is mixed. Aside the win in 1987, Freddy finished runner-up in 1998 and has another three top-10s to his name. 2006 has been his best year for a decade, with only a poor putting stroke on the final holes costing him victory at the Nissan Open and letting Mickelson get away from him on the back 9 at Augusta. I'm sure Freddy was instantly gutted to lose his chance in the Masters in that fashion, but on reflection he must be proud to have finished 3rd and shown that he can still compete at the very highest level. I'll be closing my eyes if he has a testing 3-footer to win on Sunday, but that shouldn't deter an interest at 40/1.
There's been a few big priced winners over the years in this event, with Robert Damron, Ted Purdy, Loren Roberts and John Cook all starting at three figure odds in the last decade. With so many of the shorter priced players unfancied, I've found a batch of outsiders who might represent a bit of value. Accuracy from tee to green is very much required on these courses, which must bring JERRY KELLY into calculations at 80/1. Kelly is usually seen to his best on such courses, and confirmed his wellbeing with a solid 5th place at Hilton Head Island last month. That was a third top-10 of the year for Jerry, who has shown before he is only just below top-class under the right conditions. Both he and Couples are also well worth a look in speciality markets.
2006 has been the best ever year for Australian golf, with Appleby, Pampling, Ogilvy and Baddeley landing 5 US Tour events between them already. The next Aussie to join that list could well be STEPHEN LEANEY. A multiple winner in Europe and Australasia, Leaney's career highlight has to be finishing runner-up to Jim Furyk in the 2003 US Open. He is another who is usually seen to best effect on courses that reward his accuracy, and has finished a creditable 7th and 27th in the last two years here. Just lately his stats have been particularly impressive without managing to string four good rounds together to seriously alert the judges. At 125/1, its worth having a punt that this is the week this proven winner finally clicks in the States.
My final two selections are extremely speculative. CHARLEY HOFFMAN and DAVID BRANSHAW have both run up some nice figures recently based around their tee to green game. At 150/1, a continuation of that form would give them an outside squeak. Slight preference is for Branshaw, who also finished 14th on his sole visit in 2004.
Good Luck!
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1 (LADBROKES)
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1 (LADBROKES)
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1 (SKYBET)
BRITISH MASTERS
3pts ew HENRIK STENSON @ 14/1 (BET DIRECT)
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 18/1 (BET DIRECT, BET365, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 80/1 (365, CORAL, PADDY POWER)
BYRON NELSON CLASSIC
1pt ew FRED COUPLES @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JERRY KELLY @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew STEPHEN LEANEY @ 125/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew DAVID BRANSDON @ 150/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 200/1 WITH SPORTING ODDS/BET)
0.5pts ew CHARLEY HOFFMAN @ 150/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-2.25pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
NOTE: LAST WEEK'S STATS WERE SLIGHTLY WRONG. I HAD FORGOTTEN TO ADD THE PLACE RETURNS OF JOSE-MANUEL LARA THE PREVIOUS WEEK.
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 9:25 AM
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