Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Aussie Scott can star at wet Wentworth

This week's BMW PGA Championship represents the highlight so far of the 2006 European Tour. For once, the field over here is immeasurably superior to the one on show in the States. They've been playing the PGA Championship at the West Course for as long as I've been watching golf, so hopefully good use can be made of the bank of past Wentworth form in finding some value this week. In the past, usually when we've seen dry, fast-running conditions, outsiders have flourished in this prestige event. Recent shock winners include 500/1 Scott Drummond and 200/1 Andrew Oldcorn. I suspect there's much less of that happening at Wentworth now that Ernie Els has overseen various changes to the West Course, including lengthening of over 300 yards. The key to success here over the years has always been accuracy, but the changes, coupled with drenched fairways this week, suggests that length off the tee is of equal importance. As with all great golf courses, waywardness will be severely penalised and the number of potential winners may be limited to the cream of the crop and a handful of players who hit it long and straight.

One might think Els, a 6-time winner of the World Matchplay on this course, would have an advantage having designed the changes. It does seem amazing that he's never won this event, and its been a long time since he started in double figures but frankly he just hasn't impressed recently. Retief Goosen makes even less appeal as he's never even threatened to win here. The player whom I think will most appreciate conditions this week is ADAM SCOTT. Scotty comes here in much better form than those two, with consecutive top-3 finishes in the US. The Aussie seems to absolutely revel in wet conditions, which suit his superb long game and I also feel negates his achilles heel - chipping and putting around dry, fast greens.

As with Els, it seems ridiculous that MICHAEL CAMPBELL has never won a PGA despite challenging on numerous occasions. It was disappointing to see him fail to get into contention in Ireland at the weekend, but close inspection of his card suggests a repetition of the solid form Cambo showed the previous week. From +3 in the first six holes, finishing in 12th place just five shots behind the winner was a decent effort. 3 weeks into his main summer schedule, Campbell should be approaching peak form just about now.

LUKE DONALD gets onto my shortlist in almost every event he plays in, so I can't ignore 20/1 against a European Tour field. 18th place in 2005 was a moderate course debut for a player of his ability, but I'm still convinced he has the perfect game for Wentworth. There is arguably nobody better on narrow, penal courses like this than the consistent Donald, who rarely misses fairways. My only slight nagging doubt is his comparative lack of length off the tee, but if you look back throughout his career, Luke has often prospered on long courses as a result of his superb long irons.

Finally, I was very surprised to see the resurgent JARMO SANDELIN quoted in three-figures. In recent weeks Jarmo has had no peers as far as this week's central requirement is concerned, long, straight driving. Missing the cut at unsuitable, linksy Carton House came as no surprise to me, especially after two consecutive weeks in contention previously. A six-time winner in Europe, Sandelin is a man to take seriously when in form. Two top-10s here in 1996 and 1999 show he can play the course well when in form. Subsequent poor efforts are readily overlooked because his game has been all over the place in that period.

There's also loads of course form to analyse for the US event, the Fedex St Jude Classic at Southwind, though not all of it is entirely relevant as there have been significant course changes in recent years. DAVID TOMS' record here is nothing short of magnificent, finishing 4th and 2nd either side of wins in 2003 and 2004. The problem with backing him confidently at single figure odds is a best finish of 15th from his last six starts. Prior to that of course, Toms had been in superb nick so recent disappointments are probably just a blip and with so few other obvious winners I have to include DT in the staking plan. Fellow major winner and defending champion Justin Leonard similarly has a superb course record, but hasn't finished in the top-25 since February. Bob Estes is another with an outstanding record at Southwind but is a measly 28/1 for such a Tour also-ran.

The one player with good course and recent form is a player I'm adamant will get off the mark in the US soon, FREDDY JACOBSEN. Top-6 on all three Southwind visits, Jacobsen has done better here than anywhere else on the PGA Tour, and last weekend's just off the pace effort had the hallmark of an imminent winner. Again the price hardly screams value, but he must be backed nonetheless as the opposition isn't terrifying.

Good Luck!

BMW CHAMPIONSHIP

3pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 20/1 (BET DIRECT, LADBROKES, SKYBET, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 25/1 (BLUESQ, SKYBET, VICTOR CHANDLER, SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JARMO SANDELIN @ 125/1 (BET DIRECT, BLUESQ)

FEDEX ST-JUDE CLASSIC

3pts win DAVID TOMS @ 8/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew FREDDY JACOBSEN @ 22/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 25/1 WITH BLUESQ)

2006 STATS: (-43pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

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