The European Tour moves on to the Italian Open this week. The market leader and classiest player on show by some way is, at 7/1 Argentinian Angel Cabrera. I've no doubt he will be there or thereabouts, as he invariably is on European Tour outings. He makes no betting appeal though as a rare winner, and hasn't won this event at the last attempts (though he did lead going into the final round two years ago.
The best course form on offer comes from ANDERS HANSEN. The Dane has finished 9th and 2nd over the past two years so he must come into the reckoning on the back of some solid form in February and March. In particular, a replication of his effort in 4th place behind Woods and Els in Dubai would make Hansen a shoe-in amongst this company.
Several inexperienced prospects have done well on this course. Graeme McDowell won two years ago and Richard Finch was runner-up last year. On the basis that inexperience clearly isn't too much of a disadvantage, my other three selections are players who are nowhere near fulfilling their potential. Firstly, and quite obviously this looks a chance for Italian FRANCESCO MOLINARI to gain reward for some very solid recent form. Molinari looked very promising over the winter in the globet-trotting stage of the European Tour. Top-tens on world class courses at Perth and in the SA Open at Fancourt marked him down as a player to follow, so he must have a chance in his national Open on a course where he has registered two top-20 finishes already. Molinari also warmed up in the perfect style, playing four good rounds in Spain but never getting beyond the fringes of contention.
100/1 looks a big price for DAVID GRIFFITHS after his weekend exploits. I was particularly impressed with the way he bounced back from the worst possible start to his final round, watching a 2 shot lead disintegrate into an impossible deficit in minutes. Take out six holes when understandably feeling the pressure in a new situation, and Griffiths' week was nothing short of outstanding, an excellent follow up on another recent top-10 in the Algarve. Hopefully David will have learned from that experience, and can continue his progress this week.
The final selection is a small each-way punt on another hot prospect, ANDRES ROMERO. This young Argentinian is a recent graduate from the Challenge Tour, and is being tipped for great things by all sorts of judges. He did indeed look a very exciting prospect when third in Portugal last month. It would asking a lot to win at this early stage in his career, but 150/1 looks worth the risk. Like Molinari, he has already shown decent form here when even less experienced, finishing a highly respectable 21st last year.
I'm really hoping I can get to see some of the US Tour event this week, the Wachovia Championship at Quail Hollow. This venue has really established itself over the last couple of years, and the event attracts as strong a field as you'll find outside the Majors and Sawgrass. Of the players that matter, only Tiger Woods is missing from the field this week, spending time with his dying father.
In Tiger's absence, I am a bit surprised to see odds of 7/1 about Phil Mickelson chalked up. Lets just recap his recent record. He wins the Bellsouth Classic effectively after two rounds, and follows up with his second Masters victory pretty much assured by the back 9. On his first outing back, and probably a bit rusty, he makes a slow start before getting slowly into contention on Sunday only to finish with some bogeys chasing the title. Mickelson is clearly the best player in this field on current form and feared greatly, but perhaps he's done his share of winning for a while. Better to look for bigger prices I think.
On a proper test like Quail Hollow, I suspect this will be fought out by the top players. Of them, there's just too many doubts about Ernie Els' form and fitness to back him at the moment while compatriot Retief Goosen was unimpressive again at the weekend and has never played the course. Sergio Garcia would have a massive chance if he were to show any hint of form with the putter, but recent displays in that department have been truly desperate. David Toms and Chris Dimarco are out of form, and Stuart Appleby has a poor course record.
With doubts about all of these, the case for VIJAY SINGH retaining the title gains strength. Vijay must owe me a fortune now after all my losses on him in the last year, but I'm adamant that there is very little difference between Singh's form now and 18 months ago when he was World No 1. The key is a struggle with the putter, but nowhere near as pronounced as Garcia's problems. Quail Hollow will place a much greater emphasis on greens in regulation than usual, so putting should be less of a factor. No wonder then that the Fijian, who has few peers if any in the long game department, has finished 1st, 2nd and 10th here on three visits.
Similarly with doubts surrounding his main rivals, 33/1 about LUKE DONALD looks an absolutely massive price. Since winning the Honda Classic, and being widely greeted as a Major winner in waiting, a few bad weeks has seen his price shoot right back up to attractive levels. Struggling at Sawgrass and Augusta are hardly evidence of a great loss of form, and I expect Luke to bounce back very soon. Though his best finish from two previous attempts is a moderate 15th, Quail Hollow looks made for an accurate iron player like Donald.
As in recent weeks, I'm sticking with GEOFF OGILVY to continue his steady rise up the golfing echelons. The World Matchplay winner has barely had a bad round for months, and generally seems to be seen at his best on the tougher courses like this one and Major venues. A solid 22nd and 10th on his two previous visits, the logic of his overall improvement implies he must be a contender.
Finally its too early in the week to scour the match bets as few firms will have priced any up yet. If I get a chance to look, I'll let you know, but I will say this much. Look to oppose Stuart Appleby who is bound to be well rated on the back of a win and a fourth place in the last fortnight. It means very little - Apples has poor records on several courses he doesn't like, and hasn't done anything much in three Quail Hollow attempts.
Good Luck!
ITALIAN OPEN
2pts ew ANDERS HANSEN @ 25/1 (SPORTING BET/ODDS, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew FRANCESCO MOLINARI @ 33/1 (SPORTING BET, BET365, EXPEKT)
0.5pts ew DAVID GRIFFITHS @ 100/1 (SPORTING BET,EXPEKT)
0.5pts ew ANDRES ROMERO @ 150/1 (CORAL)
WACHOVIA CHAMPIONSHIP
3pts ew VIJAY SINGH @ 14/1 (SPORTING BET, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew GEOFF OGILVY @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-90.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
The best course form on offer comes from ANDERS HANSEN. The Dane has finished 9th and 2nd over the past two years so he must come into the reckoning on the back of some solid form in February and March. In particular, a replication of his effort in 4th place behind Woods and Els in Dubai would make Hansen a shoe-in amongst this company.
Several inexperienced prospects have done well on this course. Graeme McDowell won two years ago and Richard Finch was runner-up last year. On the basis that inexperience clearly isn't too much of a disadvantage, my other three selections are players who are nowhere near fulfilling their potential. Firstly, and quite obviously this looks a chance for Italian FRANCESCO MOLINARI to gain reward for some very solid recent form. Molinari looked very promising over the winter in the globet-trotting stage of the European Tour. Top-tens on world class courses at Perth and in the SA Open at Fancourt marked him down as a player to follow, so he must have a chance in his national Open on a course where he has registered two top-20 finishes already. Molinari also warmed up in the perfect style, playing four good rounds in Spain but never getting beyond the fringes of contention.
100/1 looks a big price for DAVID GRIFFITHS after his weekend exploits. I was particularly impressed with the way he bounced back from the worst possible start to his final round, watching a 2 shot lead disintegrate into an impossible deficit in minutes. Take out six holes when understandably feeling the pressure in a new situation, and Griffiths' week was nothing short of outstanding, an excellent follow up on another recent top-10 in the Algarve. Hopefully David will have learned from that experience, and can continue his progress this week.
The final selection is a small each-way punt on another hot prospect, ANDRES ROMERO. This young Argentinian is a recent graduate from the Challenge Tour, and is being tipped for great things by all sorts of judges. He did indeed look a very exciting prospect when third in Portugal last month. It would asking a lot to win at this early stage in his career, but 150/1 looks worth the risk. Like Molinari, he has already shown decent form here when even less experienced, finishing a highly respectable 21st last year.
I'm really hoping I can get to see some of the US Tour event this week, the Wachovia Championship at Quail Hollow. This venue has really established itself over the last couple of years, and the event attracts as strong a field as you'll find outside the Majors and Sawgrass. Of the players that matter, only Tiger Woods is missing from the field this week, spending time with his dying father.
In Tiger's absence, I am a bit surprised to see odds of 7/1 about Phil Mickelson chalked up. Lets just recap his recent record. He wins the Bellsouth Classic effectively after two rounds, and follows up with his second Masters victory pretty much assured by the back 9. On his first outing back, and probably a bit rusty, he makes a slow start before getting slowly into contention on Sunday only to finish with some bogeys chasing the title. Mickelson is clearly the best player in this field on current form and feared greatly, but perhaps he's done his share of winning for a while. Better to look for bigger prices I think.
On a proper test like Quail Hollow, I suspect this will be fought out by the top players. Of them, there's just too many doubts about Ernie Els' form and fitness to back him at the moment while compatriot Retief Goosen was unimpressive again at the weekend and has never played the course. Sergio Garcia would have a massive chance if he were to show any hint of form with the putter, but recent displays in that department have been truly desperate. David Toms and Chris Dimarco are out of form, and Stuart Appleby has a poor course record.
With doubts about all of these, the case for VIJAY SINGH retaining the title gains strength. Vijay must owe me a fortune now after all my losses on him in the last year, but I'm adamant that there is very little difference between Singh's form now and 18 months ago when he was World No 1. The key is a struggle with the putter, but nowhere near as pronounced as Garcia's problems. Quail Hollow will place a much greater emphasis on greens in regulation than usual, so putting should be less of a factor. No wonder then that the Fijian, who has few peers if any in the long game department, has finished 1st, 2nd and 10th here on three visits.
Similarly with doubts surrounding his main rivals, 33/1 about LUKE DONALD looks an absolutely massive price. Since winning the Honda Classic, and being widely greeted as a Major winner in waiting, a few bad weeks has seen his price shoot right back up to attractive levels. Struggling at Sawgrass and Augusta are hardly evidence of a great loss of form, and I expect Luke to bounce back very soon. Though his best finish from two previous attempts is a moderate 15th, Quail Hollow looks made for an accurate iron player like Donald.
As in recent weeks, I'm sticking with GEOFF OGILVY to continue his steady rise up the golfing echelons. The World Matchplay winner has barely had a bad round for months, and generally seems to be seen at his best on the tougher courses like this one and Major venues. A solid 22nd and 10th on his two previous visits, the logic of his overall improvement implies he must be a contender.
Finally its too early in the week to scour the match bets as few firms will have priced any up yet. If I get a chance to look, I'll let you know, but I will say this much. Look to oppose Stuart Appleby who is bound to be well rated on the back of a win and a fourth place in the last fortnight. It means very little - Apples has poor records on several courses he doesn't like, and hasn't done anything much in three Quail Hollow attempts.
Good Luck!
ITALIAN OPEN
2pts ew ANDERS HANSEN @ 25/1 (SPORTING BET/ODDS, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew FRANCESCO MOLINARI @ 33/1 (SPORTING BET, BET365, EXPEKT)
0.5pts ew DAVID GRIFFITHS @ 100/1 (SPORTING BET,EXPEKT)
0.5pts ew ANDRES ROMERO @ 150/1 (CORAL)
WACHOVIA CHAMPIONSHIP
3pts ew VIJAY SINGH @ 14/1 (SPORTING BET, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew GEOFF OGILVY @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-90.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 3:50 PM
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