Els set for triumphant Riviera return
For those of us addicted to golf betting and quite happy to follow our fortunes over the internet, this is a special week. This is one of the very few weeks where we can bet live in-running 24/7 in the shape of four tournaments worldwide, in the US, Malaysia, South Africa and Australia. The one I'm most likely to ignore is the Australian event, but by far the most prestigious is the annual Nissan Open at Riviera Country Club, California.
Tiger Woods bids to win his fourth consecutive event, but the man to beat is ERNIE ELS. Since returning from injury in December, Ernie has shown the layoff has done his game no harm at all with two excellent weeks at home in South Africa prior to another play-off defeat to Woods in Dubai. As disappointed as Els must have been with that loss, he must also have been re-assured to have matched Woods and I'm expecting a big run from Els over the next few weeks in the run-up to Augusta. Few better opportunities exist than a tournament played at Riviera Country Club, one of his favourite courses, where he was 3rd in the 1995 USPGA and won a top class Nissan in 1999. Imagine a Major was being played on this course, Els would be no more than 10/1 against a vastly stronger field yet he is 9/1 on Betfair to win this.
Ernie's chance is made even more obvious when we consider the Riviera record of the favourite, Woods. Tiger has yet to win here in 8 attempts and has only made the top-5 on two occasions. Twice this year already Woods has proven that he remains capable of winning without playing anywhere near his best, but surely that can't be extended to the courses that suit him least.
Prior to last year's rain-shortened win for Adam Scott, the Nissan has proved a tournament for the more experienced players, with Els at 29 the only previous winner under the age of 30. One player who I could see matching the Nissan winner's profile is CHRIS DIMARCO. At 37, Dimarco now looks to be approaching his peak since his starring performance for the US in the Presidents Cup. Previously a very nervy, unreliable finisher, he looked a completely different character when winning gutsily from the front in Abu Dhabi. The following efforts at home have been solid if unspectacular but confirm that Chris remains in form. He looks exactly the kind of shot-maker to prosper here, even though he has only one good Nissan performance from six (6th in 2002).
Another classy, experienced shot-maker who could come into his own this week is JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL. Over the past year, the dual Masters champion has re-established himself as a world class player on both sides of the Atlantic, with several near misses in big tournaments and just the one victory in Spain. The recent play-off defeat to Tiger was no fluke and 14th place at Pebble Beach was another solid effort. Certainly, there are few tournaments where Olazabal would have a better chance in the States than here, and I reckon he's still capable of another decent prize.
The European Tour event in Malaysia has a rather tricky look to it, not least because we have no previous course form to work from. Normally the golden rule in such events is to stick with the handful of top class overseas players, but in this case only two players fit that description, Padraig Harrington and MIGUEL ANGEL-JIMINEZ. Harrington opens his annual campaign in Malaysia for the sixth year running, but hasn't won on any of the other 5 occasions and can't be fancied in a tournament he admits is basically a warm-up. Jiminez, on the other hand, had two good weeks out of three during the Desert Swing and a fine record in the Far East. A repeat of his 4th place behind Woods and Els a fortnight ago in Dubai would yield an easy victory at this level, and while 8/1 is still hardly giving money away, the Spaniard must enter the staking plan.
Other than Harrington, his principal rival is Thongchai Jaidee, who aims to win the event for the third consecutive victory. Time and again, Jaidee has shown he can compete with the world's best in Asian conditions, though his most recent Asian Tour form has not been anywhere near his best. Nevertheless, Jaidee played well in the Gulf and is bound to be there or thereabouts, but I'm avoiding his miserly 12/1 quote. Similarly, Jyoti Randhawa has chances but makes no appeal at the price.
Of the Asian players, I prefer the chances of THAWORN WIRATCHANT at 25/1. Wiratchant looked every bit as good as Jaidee and Randhawa on the Asian Tour last year yet is double the odds of the former. He played an absolute blinder when 8th in China behind Howell, Woods and a star-studded leaderboard and will be hard to keep out of the places here.
In a weak field, young ROSS FISHER looks a nice each-way bet. Fisher has looked an extremely promising recruit to the European Tour over the winter months, and 12th in Perth at the weekend was another fine effort. Twice Fisher has got himself right into contention only to get stagefright, in China and South Africa. Hopefully those experiences will have been a learning curve, as he is certainly one to follow.
Unfortunately bookmakers have been very slow to price up the events in Australia and South Africa, with only one show on either event available at the moment. The Jacobs Creek Open looks a wide open event in Australia, and my only interest is going to be a bet on one of my regular big priced selections, WADE ORMSBY at 50/1. I'm convinced Ormsby has at least a win at this level in him, and quite possibly a lot more on the European Tour.
I can only guess at the likely odds for the Telkom PGA Championship in South Africa, but can be pretty sure Charl Schwartzel will be favourite. He certainly sets the standard on recent form but played poorly on his only previous visit to this Johannesburg course. The player I like the look of is RICHARD STERNE. 5th in this event last year, Sterne played really well when 16th in Dubai on his latest start, so he arrives in-form and hopefully well set for a tilt at this following a week off.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
NISSAN OPEN
5pts win ERNIE ELS @ 17/2 (SKYBET, BET365)
2pts ew CHRIS DIMARCO @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
MALAYSIAN OPEN
4pts win MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ @ 8/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew THAWORN WIRATCHANT @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew ROSS FISHER @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 66/1 BSQ)
TELKOM PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
2pts ew RICHARD STERNE @ 16/1 OR BIGGER
JACOBS CREEK OPEN
1pt ew WADE ORMSBY @ 50/1 (SKYBET)
Tiger Woods bids to win his fourth consecutive event, but the man to beat is ERNIE ELS. Since returning from injury in December, Ernie has shown the layoff has done his game no harm at all with two excellent weeks at home in South Africa prior to another play-off defeat to Woods in Dubai. As disappointed as Els must have been with that loss, he must also have been re-assured to have matched Woods and I'm expecting a big run from Els over the next few weeks in the run-up to Augusta. Few better opportunities exist than a tournament played at Riviera Country Club, one of his favourite courses, where he was 3rd in the 1995 USPGA and won a top class Nissan in 1999. Imagine a Major was being played on this course, Els would be no more than 10/1 against a vastly stronger field yet he is 9/1 on Betfair to win this.
Ernie's chance is made even more obvious when we consider the Riviera record of the favourite, Woods. Tiger has yet to win here in 8 attempts and has only made the top-5 on two occasions. Twice this year already Woods has proven that he remains capable of winning without playing anywhere near his best, but surely that can't be extended to the courses that suit him least.
Prior to last year's rain-shortened win for Adam Scott, the Nissan has proved a tournament for the more experienced players, with Els at 29 the only previous winner under the age of 30. One player who I could see matching the Nissan winner's profile is CHRIS DIMARCO. At 37, Dimarco now looks to be approaching his peak since his starring performance for the US in the Presidents Cup. Previously a very nervy, unreliable finisher, he looked a completely different character when winning gutsily from the front in Abu Dhabi. The following efforts at home have been solid if unspectacular but confirm that Chris remains in form. He looks exactly the kind of shot-maker to prosper here, even though he has only one good Nissan performance from six (6th in 2002).
Another classy, experienced shot-maker who could come into his own this week is JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL. Over the past year, the dual Masters champion has re-established himself as a world class player on both sides of the Atlantic, with several near misses in big tournaments and just the one victory in Spain. The recent play-off defeat to Tiger was no fluke and 14th place at Pebble Beach was another solid effort. Certainly, there are few tournaments where Olazabal would have a better chance in the States than here, and I reckon he's still capable of another decent prize.
The European Tour event in Malaysia has a rather tricky look to it, not least because we have no previous course form to work from. Normally the golden rule in such events is to stick with the handful of top class overseas players, but in this case only two players fit that description, Padraig Harrington and MIGUEL ANGEL-JIMINEZ. Harrington opens his annual campaign in Malaysia for the sixth year running, but hasn't won on any of the other 5 occasions and can't be fancied in a tournament he admits is basically a warm-up. Jiminez, on the other hand, had two good weeks out of three during the Desert Swing and a fine record in the Far East. A repeat of his 4th place behind Woods and Els a fortnight ago in Dubai would yield an easy victory at this level, and while 8/1 is still hardly giving money away, the Spaniard must enter the staking plan.
Other than Harrington, his principal rival is Thongchai Jaidee, who aims to win the event for the third consecutive victory. Time and again, Jaidee has shown he can compete with the world's best in Asian conditions, though his most recent Asian Tour form has not been anywhere near his best. Nevertheless, Jaidee played well in the Gulf and is bound to be there or thereabouts, but I'm avoiding his miserly 12/1 quote. Similarly, Jyoti Randhawa has chances but makes no appeal at the price.
Of the Asian players, I prefer the chances of THAWORN WIRATCHANT at 25/1. Wiratchant looked every bit as good as Jaidee and Randhawa on the Asian Tour last year yet is double the odds of the former. He played an absolute blinder when 8th in China behind Howell, Woods and a star-studded leaderboard and will be hard to keep out of the places here.
In a weak field, young ROSS FISHER looks a nice each-way bet. Fisher has looked an extremely promising recruit to the European Tour over the winter months, and 12th in Perth at the weekend was another fine effort. Twice Fisher has got himself right into contention only to get stagefright, in China and South Africa. Hopefully those experiences will have been a learning curve, as he is certainly one to follow.
Unfortunately bookmakers have been very slow to price up the events in Australia and South Africa, with only one show on either event available at the moment. The Jacobs Creek Open looks a wide open event in Australia, and my only interest is going to be a bet on one of my regular big priced selections, WADE ORMSBY at 50/1. I'm convinced Ormsby has at least a win at this level in him, and quite possibly a lot more on the European Tour.
I can only guess at the likely odds for the Telkom PGA Championship in South Africa, but can be pretty sure Charl Schwartzel will be favourite. He certainly sets the standard on recent form but played poorly on his only previous visit to this Johannesburg course. The player I like the look of is RICHARD STERNE. 5th in this event last year, Sterne played really well when 16th in Dubai on his latest start, so he arrives in-form and hopefully well set for a tilt at this following a week off.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
NISSAN OPEN
5pts win ERNIE ELS @ 17/2 (SKYBET, BET365)
2pts ew CHRIS DIMARCO @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
MALAYSIAN OPEN
4pts win MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ @ 8/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew THAWORN WIRATCHANT @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew ROSS FISHER @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 66/1 BSQ)
TELKOM PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
2pts ew RICHARD STERNE @ 16/1 OR BIGGER
JACOBS CREEK OPEN
1pt ew WADE ORMSBY @ 50/1 (SKYBET)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 2:29 PM
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