Campbell gunning for Vines hat-trick
With the 'Desert Swing' section of the European Tour now complete, another world class field moves on to Australia for the Johnnie Walker Classic. The venue, The Vines course in Perth, was the scene of some of my most vivid memories in golf betting when it used to stage the Heineken Classic. Ernie Els' shock defeat to rookie Jarrod Moseley after surrendering a six shot lead over the last 12 holes in 1999 remains the most unlikely comeback I've ever been on the end of, but happier times ensued for me over the following two years with consecutive victories for MICHAEL CAMPBELL.
When betting in this particular part of the world, be it on golf or cricket, it is imperative to know the local weather conditions. As sure as night follows day, strong winds known as the Fremantle Doctor arrive in the late afternoon and have a significant effect on scoring. Therefore an early tee-time is a big advantage, perhaps more than in any other event this season.
A look at the previous roll-call of winners show this is, typically of Australian courses, a course that separates the in-form classy players from the rest. Separation will happen pretty early in my view, and I'm confident that at least a couple of my early-starting quartet will be firmly entrenched on the leaderboard by Friday night. Campbell is definitely the one to beat. Bang in contention right up until the closing holes on his only 2006 outing at Hawaii, the Brighton-based Kiwi is bound to be well prepared for a tilt on what must be his favourite courses after those Heineken wins. I'm expecting Cambo to continue the superb form showed after winning the US Open last June and cement his place in the game's elite.
The other extremely obvious challenger is RETIEF GOOSEN. It has to be a slight concern that Goose missed the cut on both his previous Vines visits, but I'm ignoring them because he is a completely different player to the average Euro-tour performer of 1998 and 1999. After looking the likely winner in the ultimate company in Dubai on his seasonal debut, a disappointing weekend left him in sixth place behind Woods. That is still a very high level to set the bar here and its worth remembering that Goosen said afterwards that he had felt the effects of his winter break over the weekend. If he gets back to the form prior to Christmas that bagged four wins, he will take some beating in every event. With an early start, I doubt we'll see much more than 6/1 again over the weekend.
PAUL CASEY always has to be taken seriously in this part of the world. Four of six visits to the country have yielded top-5 finishes, including one win, and he comes here in good order. On the fringes of things all weekend, I still harboured outside hopes of a place for Casey until he dropped a couple of shots from the 70th hole onwards. Again the early start makes 25/1 look particularly attractive.
There's no question who the locals will be cheering for, as NICK O'HERN returns to his home state. The left-hander has a spectacularly consistent record pretty much everywhere these days but even more so in Australia and very much went into the notebook with a closing round 66 at the weekend. As always, any bet on Nick has to be tempered with the fact that he is a notoriously weak finisher, but the place odds alone justify a bet. If you take the 20/1 though, don't forget to have a saver if he goes odds-on!
Of the rest, Adam Scott is hampered by a late start, and seems to underperform in his own country. Colin Montgomerie played very poorly in Dubai and could struggle. Robert Allenby can't be overlooked after winning three on the bounce in Australia just before Christmas, but did little at Scottsdale last week and has never got into contention at The Vines. The one other contender I do fancy is Peter Lonard, who has only been overlooked because of his late start.
Another pro-am lies ahead over the weekend on the US PGA Tour, albeit the best pro-am of the year at the AT & T Pebble Beach pro-am. Despite the easier conditions set up to not embarrass the celebrities, the tough test of Pebble Beach usually ensures this is another tournament where the class players dominate. Played over three courses with two at Pebble Beach, the small greens there are particularly influential placing a great emphasis on greens in regulation.
Despite letting me down twice at short prices already in 2006. defending champion PHIL MICKELSON is impossible to leave out of the staking plan. Despite not being in his absolute best form, Phil has finished top-10 on all three outings so far. His record at this time of year, the "West Coast Swing", is awesome and I expect he will win at least one event before its finish.
JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL has put together several nice performances in this event, with three top-16 finishes in the last five years. This is interesting because at various stages in that period, the Spaniard's long game has been in crisis. He's probably never come into the event in better form than now, fresh from a play-off defeat to Tiger Woods at Torrey Pines. Last week's missed cut at Scottsdale can be seen as a reaction to that, compounded on an unsuitable course, and is easily ignored.
Of the other contenders, JIM FURYK looks bound to be on the premises. He has looked a winner in waiting on both 2006 starts in Hawaii, and also can boast lots of Pebble Beach form. Vijay Singh though, despite several good previous showings here, is overlooked after a couple of moderate weeks. I know the guy is a workaholic but its hard to see why he should be improving on his sixth consecutive playing week. Mike Weir looks bound to give his showing on his favourite course, but the odds of 33/1 are more than reflective of his chance considering his deterioration in recent years.
At a huge 250/1, I also recommend an interest on MATTHEW GOGGIN. This Aussie has looked an improved player in the last few months, with some good efforts at home and to win his PGA Tour card. His 2006 season has started promisingly, too, going well for a long way at the recent Buick Invitational. The piece of form that interests me is 8th place in this event four years ago, when a shadow of the player he is nowadays.
For spreads and matches, consistent TIM CLARK looks a good bet as usual. Top-10 on his last two visits, his accurate game is clearly suited to Pebble Beach's demands. For similar reasons, I fully expect LUKE DONALD to perform well here as well.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
JOHNNIE WALKER CLASSIC
5pts win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 12/1 (SPORTING ODDS, BET365, BLUESQ, CORAL)
5pts win RETIEF GOOSEN @ 13/2 (SPORTING ODDS, BET DIRECT, STAN JAMES)
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew NICK O'HERN @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
AT & T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM
5pts win PHIL MICKELSON @ 5/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts win JIM FURYK @ 10/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew MATTHEW GOGGIN @ 250/1 (SPORTING ODDS, BLUESQ)
MATCHES, 2-BALLS AND SPREADS
SUPPORT TIM CLARK
SUPPORT LUKE DONALD
2006 STATS: (-19.75pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
When betting in this particular part of the world, be it on golf or cricket, it is imperative to know the local weather conditions. As sure as night follows day, strong winds known as the Fremantle Doctor arrive in the late afternoon and have a significant effect on scoring. Therefore an early tee-time is a big advantage, perhaps more than in any other event this season.
A look at the previous roll-call of winners show this is, typically of Australian courses, a course that separates the in-form classy players from the rest. Separation will happen pretty early in my view, and I'm confident that at least a couple of my early-starting quartet will be firmly entrenched on the leaderboard by Friday night. Campbell is definitely the one to beat. Bang in contention right up until the closing holes on his only 2006 outing at Hawaii, the Brighton-based Kiwi is bound to be well prepared for a tilt on what must be his favourite courses after those Heineken wins. I'm expecting Cambo to continue the superb form showed after winning the US Open last June and cement his place in the game's elite.
The other extremely obvious challenger is RETIEF GOOSEN. It has to be a slight concern that Goose missed the cut on both his previous Vines visits, but I'm ignoring them because he is a completely different player to the average Euro-tour performer of 1998 and 1999. After looking the likely winner in the ultimate company in Dubai on his seasonal debut, a disappointing weekend left him in sixth place behind Woods. That is still a very high level to set the bar here and its worth remembering that Goosen said afterwards that he had felt the effects of his winter break over the weekend. If he gets back to the form prior to Christmas that bagged four wins, he will take some beating in every event. With an early start, I doubt we'll see much more than 6/1 again over the weekend.
PAUL CASEY always has to be taken seriously in this part of the world. Four of six visits to the country have yielded top-5 finishes, including one win, and he comes here in good order. On the fringes of things all weekend, I still harboured outside hopes of a place for Casey until he dropped a couple of shots from the 70th hole onwards. Again the early start makes 25/1 look particularly attractive.
There's no question who the locals will be cheering for, as NICK O'HERN returns to his home state. The left-hander has a spectacularly consistent record pretty much everywhere these days but even more so in Australia and very much went into the notebook with a closing round 66 at the weekend. As always, any bet on Nick has to be tempered with the fact that he is a notoriously weak finisher, but the place odds alone justify a bet. If you take the 20/1 though, don't forget to have a saver if he goes odds-on!
Of the rest, Adam Scott is hampered by a late start, and seems to underperform in his own country. Colin Montgomerie played very poorly in Dubai and could struggle. Robert Allenby can't be overlooked after winning three on the bounce in Australia just before Christmas, but did little at Scottsdale last week and has never got into contention at The Vines. The one other contender I do fancy is Peter Lonard, who has only been overlooked because of his late start.
Another pro-am lies ahead over the weekend on the US PGA Tour, albeit the best pro-am of the year at the AT & T Pebble Beach pro-am. Despite the easier conditions set up to not embarrass the celebrities, the tough test of Pebble Beach usually ensures this is another tournament where the class players dominate. Played over three courses with two at Pebble Beach, the small greens there are particularly influential placing a great emphasis on greens in regulation.
Despite letting me down twice at short prices already in 2006. defending champion PHIL MICKELSON is impossible to leave out of the staking plan. Despite not being in his absolute best form, Phil has finished top-10 on all three outings so far. His record at this time of year, the "West Coast Swing", is awesome and I expect he will win at least one event before its finish.
JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL has put together several nice performances in this event, with three top-16 finishes in the last five years. This is interesting because at various stages in that period, the Spaniard's long game has been in crisis. He's probably never come into the event in better form than now, fresh from a play-off defeat to Tiger Woods at Torrey Pines. Last week's missed cut at Scottsdale can be seen as a reaction to that, compounded on an unsuitable course, and is easily ignored.
Of the other contenders, JIM FURYK looks bound to be on the premises. He has looked a winner in waiting on both 2006 starts in Hawaii, and also can boast lots of Pebble Beach form. Vijay Singh though, despite several good previous showings here, is overlooked after a couple of moderate weeks. I know the guy is a workaholic but its hard to see why he should be improving on his sixth consecutive playing week. Mike Weir looks bound to give his showing on his favourite course, but the odds of 33/1 are more than reflective of his chance considering his deterioration in recent years.
At a huge 250/1, I also recommend an interest on MATTHEW GOGGIN. This Aussie has looked an improved player in the last few months, with some good efforts at home and to win his PGA Tour card. His 2006 season has started promisingly, too, going well for a long way at the recent Buick Invitational. The piece of form that interests me is 8th place in this event four years ago, when a shadow of the player he is nowadays.
For spreads and matches, consistent TIM CLARK looks a good bet as usual. Top-10 on his last two visits, his accurate game is clearly suited to Pebble Beach's demands. For similar reasons, I fully expect LUKE DONALD to perform well here as well.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
JOHNNIE WALKER CLASSIC
5pts win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 12/1 (SPORTING ODDS, BET365, BLUESQ, CORAL)
5pts win RETIEF GOOSEN @ 13/2 (SPORTING ODDS, BET DIRECT, STAN JAMES)
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew NICK O'HERN @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
AT & T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM
5pts win PHIL MICKELSON @ 5/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts win JIM FURYK @ 10/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew MATTHEW GOGGIN @ 250/1 (SPORTING ODDS, BLUESQ)
MATCHES, 2-BALLS AND SPREADS
SUPPORT TIM CLARK
SUPPORT LUKE DONALD
2006 STATS: (-19.75pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 9:52 PM
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