Ronnie Set For Welsh Hat-trick
With the World Championships only 6 weeks away, the snooker season moves on to the Welsh Open event where World No 1 RONNIE O'SULLIVAN is seeking to win for the third consecutive year. He has every chance to do so. Last month's Masters tournament at Wembley was a perfect illustration of the state of the game's elite at the moment. Most of the matches were of a very low standard compared to recent years, and finalists O'Sullivan and John Higgins looked a class apart. There are players in the top-16 with the pedigree to beat the pair - Matthew Stevens, Stephen Hendry, Mark Williams, Shaun Murphy, Stephen Maguire for example - but all have their problems. Hendry and Williams seem in decline, particularly the latter. Stevens rarely seems committed away from the Crucible, Murphy's form is in long matches. Maguire, potentially the best of the lot, has had an awful season. Its no wonder that an experienced campaigner like Ken Doherty has suddenly re-emerged as a major contender without playing noticeably better than in recent years.
With Ronnie, any bet has to take his fragile temparement into account. Regular readers will know I'm far from his biggest fan. Generally, odds of around 2/1 are spectacularly bad value considering his career record, but at Wembley his attitude was exemplary and form superb. Clearly Ronnie takes certain events more seriously than others, Wembley being the most obvious example, and the Welsh Open looks like another as he has won the tournament for the past two years. The draw could not have been kinder. He could probably reach the quarter finals playing left-handed before a potentially tough match against Ken Doherty awaits. Beyond that, his semi final opponent looks like being one of Stephen Maguire, Peter Ebdon or Graham Dott. While 9/4 doesn't exactly scream value, I'm pretty confident that once he dispatches his first two opponents, Ronnie's price won't be much above Evens.
Its interesting that, despite being the best player this season without question, John Higgins is still over twice the odds of O'Sullivan. Twice they have met in finals this year, and twice Higgins has come out on top. In the last four events, the only man to beat Higgins is Ken Doherty, the latest courtesy of a miraculous comeback in the Malta final. Like Ronnie, Higgins has little meaningful opposition prior to the quarter finals where he would probably meet either Stephen Hendry or BARRY HAWKINS - a tough match either way. This match is the most likely impediment to Higgins reaching the final so two bets look worth a mention. Firstly, Paddy Power have a market for naming the two finalists in which a HIGGINS/O'SULLIVAN final looks a strong favourite at 6/1. Secondly, its worth having an interest on Hawkins for the outright. Hendry looks vulnerable these days as he seems to always throw in one really poor performance in each tournament, and seems to have particular trouble in long-drawn out affairs. Semi-finalist at Preston where he went down by the odd frame in 11 to Ronnie, Hawkins remains a fine prospect, and well up to reaching a ranking final of this standard.
The bottom quarter looks much more open, with Shaun Murphy representing the class. As fine a prospect as the World Champion surely is, that week at Sheffield remains the only time that he has reached a ranking event final. It may just be that he is less comfortable in the shorter-frames format, as has been the case for years with Matthew Stevens. Until Murphy comprehensively proves he has the credentials in such tournaments, I can't be taking skinny odds of 11/1. In this section I think the each-way value is represented by ALASTAIR CARTER at 80/1. Prior to last year's World Championship, Carter was rated closely to Murphy as a prospect. Personally I doubt this is the case as Ali seems to lack the big match temparament of Shaun, but it would come as no surprise to me were he to win an event or two of this stature in the forthcoming seasons. Certainly from an odds perspective, he makes much more appeal than the significantly shorter priced Stevens and Mark Williams, who are in the same section of the draw.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
10pts win RONNIE O'SULLIVAN @ 9/4 (12/5 WITH SPORTING ODDS)
5pts RONNIE O'SULLIVAN/JOHN HIGGINS FINAL @ 6/1 (PADDY POWER)
1pt ew BARRY HAWKINS @ 66/1 (BLUESQ, SKYBET, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew ALASTAIR CARTER @ 80/1 (SKYBET, TOTE)
With Ronnie, any bet has to take his fragile temparement into account. Regular readers will know I'm far from his biggest fan. Generally, odds of around 2/1 are spectacularly bad value considering his career record, but at Wembley his attitude was exemplary and form superb. Clearly Ronnie takes certain events more seriously than others, Wembley being the most obvious example, and the Welsh Open looks like another as he has won the tournament for the past two years. The draw could not have been kinder. He could probably reach the quarter finals playing left-handed before a potentially tough match against Ken Doherty awaits. Beyond that, his semi final opponent looks like being one of Stephen Maguire, Peter Ebdon or Graham Dott. While 9/4 doesn't exactly scream value, I'm pretty confident that once he dispatches his first two opponents, Ronnie's price won't be much above Evens.
Its interesting that, despite being the best player this season without question, John Higgins is still over twice the odds of O'Sullivan. Twice they have met in finals this year, and twice Higgins has come out on top. In the last four events, the only man to beat Higgins is Ken Doherty, the latest courtesy of a miraculous comeback in the Malta final. Like Ronnie, Higgins has little meaningful opposition prior to the quarter finals where he would probably meet either Stephen Hendry or BARRY HAWKINS - a tough match either way. This match is the most likely impediment to Higgins reaching the final so two bets look worth a mention. Firstly, Paddy Power have a market for naming the two finalists in which a HIGGINS/O'SULLIVAN final looks a strong favourite at 6/1. Secondly, its worth having an interest on Hawkins for the outright. Hendry looks vulnerable these days as he seems to always throw in one really poor performance in each tournament, and seems to have particular trouble in long-drawn out affairs. Semi-finalist at Preston where he went down by the odd frame in 11 to Ronnie, Hawkins remains a fine prospect, and well up to reaching a ranking final of this standard.
The bottom quarter looks much more open, with Shaun Murphy representing the class. As fine a prospect as the World Champion surely is, that week at Sheffield remains the only time that he has reached a ranking event final. It may just be that he is less comfortable in the shorter-frames format, as has been the case for years with Matthew Stevens. Until Murphy comprehensively proves he has the credentials in such tournaments, I can't be taking skinny odds of 11/1. In this section I think the each-way value is represented by ALASTAIR CARTER at 80/1. Prior to last year's World Championship, Carter was rated closely to Murphy as a prospect. Personally I doubt this is the case as Ali seems to lack the big match temparament of Shaun, but it would come as no surprise to me were he to win an event or two of this stature in the forthcoming seasons. Certainly from an odds perspective, he makes much more appeal than the significantly shorter priced Stevens and Mark Williams, who are in the same section of the draw.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
10pts win RONNIE O'SULLIVAN @ 9/4 (12/5 WITH SPORTING ODDS)
5pts RONNIE O'SULLIVAN/JOHN HIGGINS FINAL @ 6/1 (PADDY POWER)
1pt ew BARRY HAWKINS @ 66/1 (BLUESQ, SKYBET, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew ALASTAIR CARTER @ 80/1 (SKYBET, TOTE)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 6:36 AM
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