Matchplay Expert Donald Ready For WGC Marathon
The WGC World Matchplay is probably the only big tournament of the year where literally every player has a chance of winning. The 18-hole matchplay format has proved time and again to be the greatest leveller in golf, and any player who gets on a hot streak with the putter can suddenly find themselves in the latter stages of this knockout event. A look at the list of previous 7 winners partly tells the story. Jeff Maggert, Steve Stricker and Kevin Sutherland were absolutely out of the blue and available at big three figure prices. Darren Clarke and David Toms were more realistic middle-priced winners while Tiger Woods has won it twice. However, Tiger's victories both occurred in years where the course was very damp and long-hitters had an advantage, which will not be the case this week with accuracy now of greater importance. In other years, Woods has been humbled by Peter O'Malley and Nick O'Hern so he is still very beatable. He looks well worh taking on with a potentially tough draw, with matchplay expert Robert Allenby, defending champion David Toms, Adam Scott, Chad Campbell and Henrik Stenson all in the same quarter. Tiger also has to prove he has fully overcome the flu-bug that forced him to withdraw at Riviera on Saturday, and if there is one crucial asset required to win this event, it would be physical fitness with up to 126 holes played over five days. With all this against him, I'm extremely tempted to lay Woods at 6.2 on Betfair.
All the other leading players have records ranging from the promising like Phil Mickelson who has won 60% of his matches here without ever reaching the semis, to the poor Ernie Els (33% win ratio). Ernie is one of many players who have voiced their dislike for this type of lottery golf, a useful thing to know for match betting purposes and in eliminating likely contenders from our thoughts. Other players with distinctly poor records here are Stuart Appleby, Vijay Singh, Padraig Harrington, Kenny Perry and Colin Montgomerie.
One of the golden rules of betting at the World Matchplay in previous years has been to back American players, who supposedly enjoy home advantage in conditions they are used to. The only non-US winner of the event in seven runnings was Darren Clarke, who stands out as one of the few Europeans happy with the format. The world's top 64 is looking a lot more international nowadays though, and most of the European contenders now regularly play in the States. None more so than LUKE DONALD, who is based there. Its no secret that Luke is expected to reach the pinnacle of the game, and he's proved a consistent, worthy member of the world's top 20 already even if he hasn't notched up the expected multiple wins yet. I think he's ready to move up another notch on the international stage this year and has chances in the Majors, but it may be the case that matchplay is the format we're likely to see the best of Luke. Everything points to it. His amateur matchplay record was prolific, he had a fine debut in the Ryder Cup. And on his first visit last year to La Costa, he won his first two matches impressively. There's nothing wrong with recent form with two top-12 finishes over the past fortnight, and his ultra-accuracy from the tee is the most important asset at La Costa.
All the value lies in the bottom half of the draw, which excludes Woods' quarter as well as the one containing Els and Mickelson. With Vijay and Goosen unfancied, and Davis Love out of form, Donald very much looks the class act in this half of the draw, along with Jim Furyk, CHRIS DIMARCO and Darren Clarke. Dimarco was runner-up here last year, and clearly loves the format having played a starring role in the recent US Presidents Cup victory and was also the only American to emerge with distinction from the last Ryder Cup. The contest of matchplay seems to bring out a more competitive side to Chris's personality that is not always seen in normal strokeplay affairs. As I've said in recent weeks that I really fancy Dimarco for a big year, and last week's surprise missed cut has not deterred me in the slightest from sticking with him here.
I never thought I'd see the day when I'd be tipping PAUL MCGINLEY to win an event in the US, but that time has arrived. A lifelong bottler of mediocre strokeplay events in Europe, McGinley suddenly came good with a massive win at the season ending Volvo Masters in Spain and has started the season in the US in fine, consistent form. But the real argument behind backing the popular Irishman is that matchplay has always been his forte. As with Dimarco, McGinley has shown a different side when playing this format in the Ryder Cup and more recently finished runner-up to Michael Campbell at the other World Matchplay event at Wentworth. The draw has also been kind, being in the easier half and opening with a match against Shingo Katayama, who has yet to win a match here in four visits.
Another European with a decent outside chance is Sweden's CARL PETTERSSON at 125/1. Like Donald, Pettersson is permanently based in the States so any issue of home advantage is negated. Two excellent rounds of 68 at Riviera to close at the weekend marked a nice return of form for Pettersson, whose early 2006 form has not matched up to the expectations created by a fine finish to 2005. There's certainly nothing particularly fearsome about his first-round opponent, Kenny Perry.
I am going to have one bet in the top half of the draw, a small interest on BART BRYANT at a tasty 125/1. Making his debut after an amazing rise up the rankings with three wins over the last 18 months, Bryant's accurate game looks tailor-made for La Costa. I fancy Bart strongly to win his first round match against under-par John Daly before a potential last-32 clash against Mickelson. In all three of those victories, Bryant showed he has tremendous bottle under the toughest head to head conditions, so he won't be scared and should he win, the draw could open up nicely.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
WGC MATCHPLAY
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew CHRIS DIMARCO @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew PAUL MCGINLEY @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew CARL PETTERSSON @ 125/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew BART BRYANT @ 125/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-68.75pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
All the other leading players have records ranging from the promising like Phil Mickelson who has won 60% of his matches here without ever reaching the semis, to the poor Ernie Els (33% win ratio). Ernie is one of many players who have voiced their dislike for this type of lottery golf, a useful thing to know for match betting purposes and in eliminating likely contenders from our thoughts. Other players with distinctly poor records here are Stuart Appleby, Vijay Singh, Padraig Harrington, Kenny Perry and Colin Montgomerie.
One of the golden rules of betting at the World Matchplay in previous years has been to back American players, who supposedly enjoy home advantage in conditions they are used to. The only non-US winner of the event in seven runnings was Darren Clarke, who stands out as one of the few Europeans happy with the format. The world's top 64 is looking a lot more international nowadays though, and most of the European contenders now regularly play in the States. None more so than LUKE DONALD, who is based there. Its no secret that Luke is expected to reach the pinnacle of the game, and he's proved a consistent, worthy member of the world's top 20 already even if he hasn't notched up the expected multiple wins yet. I think he's ready to move up another notch on the international stage this year and has chances in the Majors, but it may be the case that matchplay is the format we're likely to see the best of Luke. Everything points to it. His amateur matchplay record was prolific, he had a fine debut in the Ryder Cup. And on his first visit last year to La Costa, he won his first two matches impressively. There's nothing wrong with recent form with two top-12 finishes over the past fortnight, and his ultra-accuracy from the tee is the most important asset at La Costa.
All the value lies in the bottom half of the draw, which excludes Woods' quarter as well as the one containing Els and Mickelson. With Vijay and Goosen unfancied, and Davis Love out of form, Donald very much looks the class act in this half of the draw, along with Jim Furyk, CHRIS DIMARCO and Darren Clarke. Dimarco was runner-up here last year, and clearly loves the format having played a starring role in the recent US Presidents Cup victory and was also the only American to emerge with distinction from the last Ryder Cup. The contest of matchplay seems to bring out a more competitive side to Chris's personality that is not always seen in normal strokeplay affairs. As I've said in recent weeks that I really fancy Dimarco for a big year, and last week's surprise missed cut has not deterred me in the slightest from sticking with him here.
I never thought I'd see the day when I'd be tipping PAUL MCGINLEY to win an event in the US, but that time has arrived. A lifelong bottler of mediocre strokeplay events in Europe, McGinley suddenly came good with a massive win at the season ending Volvo Masters in Spain and has started the season in the US in fine, consistent form. But the real argument behind backing the popular Irishman is that matchplay has always been his forte. As with Dimarco, McGinley has shown a different side when playing this format in the Ryder Cup and more recently finished runner-up to Michael Campbell at the other World Matchplay event at Wentworth. The draw has also been kind, being in the easier half and opening with a match against Shingo Katayama, who has yet to win a match here in four visits.
Another European with a decent outside chance is Sweden's CARL PETTERSSON at 125/1. Like Donald, Pettersson is permanently based in the States so any issue of home advantage is negated. Two excellent rounds of 68 at Riviera to close at the weekend marked a nice return of form for Pettersson, whose early 2006 form has not matched up to the expectations created by a fine finish to 2005. There's certainly nothing particularly fearsome about his first-round opponent, Kenny Perry.
I am going to have one bet in the top half of the draw, a small interest on BART BRYANT at a tasty 125/1. Making his debut after an amazing rise up the rankings with three wins over the last 18 months, Bryant's accurate game looks tailor-made for La Costa. I fancy Bart strongly to win his first round match against under-par John Daly before a potential last-32 clash against Mickelson. In all three of those victories, Bryant showed he has tremendous bottle under the toughest head to head conditions, so he won't be scared and should he win, the draw could open up nicely.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
WGC MATCHPLAY
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew CHRIS DIMARCO @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew PAUL MCGINLEY @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew CARL PETTERSSON @ 125/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew BART BRYANT @ 125/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-68.75pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 7:18 AM
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