Apples the bet at Moonah Links
For an insomniac such as myself, this week marks the beginning of one of my favourite stretches of the year as the Australasian season gets under way. The next three weeks sees the Australian PGA and Masters but first there is the small matter of the Australian Open at Moonah Links. At approximately the same time, there is a decent European Tour event taking place, the Volvo China Open. Both look great betting heats.
First to Australia. As we have seen time and again, links golf is a specialised art and usually the same contenders emerge in tournaments played on such courses, even more so on the tougher ones. Should the wind arrive, Moonah Links is reported to be one of the hardest around and I can see plenty of big numbers being run up by players struggling in the conditions and failing to reach greens in regulation. Defending champion Peter Lonard clearly has mastered the art of links, and is now aiming to become the first player to win three consecutive Opens for 59 years. Its a worry that he will be under such intense media attention as well as having to overcome jetlag and cope with vastly different greens than at last week's World Cup. Nevertheless, it would be foolish to write off Lonard, as his record at home is simply awesome. His last 11 events in Australia have yielded five wins and no finish below 8th.
All good runs must come to an end though, and I have a feeling that this year might just be the turn of STUART APPLEBY to win his second Open. Appleby is a genuinely world class links player, losing a play-off in the 2002 British Open being the career highlight, as well as numerous wins on the PGA Tour. Aussie Open champ in 2001, last year he was second to Lonard and the previous year at Moonah, Stuart started the final day as favourite before a disappointing finish. Another factor in his favour is that, along with favourite Adam Scott, his recent PGA Tour form stands out quite some way ahead of the rest of this field, most of whom play in the US. Its very hard to envisage circumstances where Appleby isn't in contention at the weekend, and I make him a confident each-way bet at 11/1.
Scott remains one of the outstanding young talents in golf, but he looks well worth opposing this week. His record in Australia is ordinary in comparison to the rest of his form, even more so on tough links courses as his poor British Open record shows. Nick O'Hern possesses a very obvious chance on his third place behind Howell and Woods in China, as well as a string of top notch efforts in Europe all season. On the downside though, he has proved time and again that he lacks the bottle to close out tournaments. Nick's short putting remains an issue of particular concern and he's bound to be left plenty of tricky short par-putts on this course, where he disappointed two years ago. Other obvious contenders with questions to answer are Robert Allenby, whose recent form has been poor, and Mark Hensby who partnered Lonard in Portugal last week and is unproven in his own country.
Another player who has flattered to deceive in his native Australia is GEOFF OGILVY, but recent form in the States suggests Geoff could be set for his most prosperous winter yet. After finally winning his maiden event earlier in the season, Ogilvy was playing some really consistent tee to green golf all summer, as 5th and 6th place in the final two Majors show. Consecutive top-ten finishes in this event in 2001 and 2002 confirm that St Andrews was no fluke and Geoff can handle conditions, so he looks worth a saver at least.
Normally I'd steer clear of RODNEY PAMPLING, as I have him down as a bottler, but the 33/1 price tag on offer this week means I simply can't pass up the opportunity. Winner of the International in 2004, Pampling has become a consistent performer on the PGA Tour, and has a fine Australian record with his three places from his last 5 starts at home. Blowing a five shot halfway lead in this last year no doubt remains an embarrassment but this doesn't alter the obvious value in his place odds.
For the fourth and final selection, take a chance on former champion GREG CHALMERS. The left-hander recently turned around a long bad run with a fine finish to the 2005 Nationwide Tour season, regaining his main Tour card in the process. Chalmers has sounded bullish about his prospects this winter in interviews recently, stressing that this is the first time in a while that he has felt fresh and fit from a well-earned break.
Last winter, backing the top Europeans and handful of leading Asians on the "Far-East Swing" proved a profitable strategy once again and I see very little reason to abandon it for the China Open. Of the leading Europeans two stand out, Englishmen PAUL CASEY and NICK DOUGHERTY. The only other Europeans that are anywhere near the same class - Stephen Dodd, Anders Hansen, Thomas Levet - are all at a disadvantage to their English rivals having travelled to and from Portugal in between Chinese events.
In any case, their form stands out. Casey won in China earlier in the year and has been in very solid recent form, with three top-10s from his last five starts, all in considerably stronger company. Dougherty looks even more obvious on the basis of third place behind Howell and Woods a fortnight ago. Despite taking longer to show his famous potential than young peers Donald and Casey, Nick's stock has risen considerably since winning his first event in Singapore in February. I've described Dougherty as a winner waiting to happen several times since and this looks the best opportunity to date.
With form and freshness questions surrounding so many of the other Europeans, it should pay to side with the two best performers on the Asian Tour, THONGCHAI JAIDEE and THAWORN WIRATCHANT. Time and again this pair have shown they can compete with the very best Europe can muster when conditions are in their favour and look in a different class to the rest of the 'home' contingent. Both look excellent each-way bets at 20/1.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
AUSTRALIAN OPEN
4pts ew STUART APPLEBY @ 12/1 (LADBROKES)
2pts ew GEOFF OGILVY @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew ROD PAMPLING @ 33/1 (LADBROKES)
1pt ew GREG CHALMERS @ 80/1 (LADBROKES)
VOLVO CHINA OPEN
4pts win PAUL CASEY @ 9/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew THONGCHAI JAIDEE @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew THAWORN WIRATCHANT @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2005 STATISTICS: +65.25pts
First to Australia. As we have seen time and again, links golf is a specialised art and usually the same contenders emerge in tournaments played on such courses, even more so on the tougher ones. Should the wind arrive, Moonah Links is reported to be one of the hardest around and I can see plenty of big numbers being run up by players struggling in the conditions and failing to reach greens in regulation. Defending champion Peter Lonard clearly has mastered the art of links, and is now aiming to become the first player to win three consecutive Opens for 59 years. Its a worry that he will be under such intense media attention as well as having to overcome jetlag and cope with vastly different greens than at last week's World Cup. Nevertheless, it would be foolish to write off Lonard, as his record at home is simply awesome. His last 11 events in Australia have yielded five wins and no finish below 8th.
All good runs must come to an end though, and I have a feeling that this year might just be the turn of STUART APPLEBY to win his second Open. Appleby is a genuinely world class links player, losing a play-off in the 2002 British Open being the career highlight, as well as numerous wins on the PGA Tour. Aussie Open champ in 2001, last year he was second to Lonard and the previous year at Moonah, Stuart started the final day as favourite before a disappointing finish. Another factor in his favour is that, along with favourite Adam Scott, his recent PGA Tour form stands out quite some way ahead of the rest of this field, most of whom play in the US. Its very hard to envisage circumstances where Appleby isn't in contention at the weekend, and I make him a confident each-way bet at 11/1.
Scott remains one of the outstanding young talents in golf, but he looks well worth opposing this week. His record in Australia is ordinary in comparison to the rest of his form, even more so on tough links courses as his poor British Open record shows. Nick O'Hern possesses a very obvious chance on his third place behind Howell and Woods in China, as well as a string of top notch efforts in Europe all season. On the downside though, he has proved time and again that he lacks the bottle to close out tournaments. Nick's short putting remains an issue of particular concern and he's bound to be left plenty of tricky short par-putts on this course, where he disappointed two years ago. Other obvious contenders with questions to answer are Robert Allenby, whose recent form has been poor, and Mark Hensby who partnered Lonard in Portugal last week and is unproven in his own country.
Another player who has flattered to deceive in his native Australia is GEOFF OGILVY, but recent form in the States suggests Geoff could be set for his most prosperous winter yet. After finally winning his maiden event earlier in the season, Ogilvy was playing some really consistent tee to green golf all summer, as 5th and 6th place in the final two Majors show. Consecutive top-ten finishes in this event in 2001 and 2002 confirm that St Andrews was no fluke and Geoff can handle conditions, so he looks worth a saver at least.
Normally I'd steer clear of RODNEY PAMPLING, as I have him down as a bottler, but the 33/1 price tag on offer this week means I simply can't pass up the opportunity. Winner of the International in 2004, Pampling has become a consistent performer on the PGA Tour, and has a fine Australian record with his three places from his last 5 starts at home. Blowing a five shot halfway lead in this last year no doubt remains an embarrassment but this doesn't alter the obvious value in his place odds.
For the fourth and final selection, take a chance on former champion GREG CHALMERS. The left-hander recently turned around a long bad run with a fine finish to the 2005 Nationwide Tour season, regaining his main Tour card in the process. Chalmers has sounded bullish about his prospects this winter in interviews recently, stressing that this is the first time in a while that he has felt fresh and fit from a well-earned break.
Last winter, backing the top Europeans and handful of leading Asians on the "Far-East Swing" proved a profitable strategy once again and I see very little reason to abandon it for the China Open. Of the leading Europeans two stand out, Englishmen PAUL CASEY and NICK DOUGHERTY. The only other Europeans that are anywhere near the same class - Stephen Dodd, Anders Hansen, Thomas Levet - are all at a disadvantage to their English rivals having travelled to and from Portugal in between Chinese events.
In any case, their form stands out. Casey won in China earlier in the year and has been in very solid recent form, with three top-10s from his last five starts, all in considerably stronger company. Dougherty looks even more obvious on the basis of third place behind Howell and Woods a fortnight ago. Despite taking longer to show his famous potential than young peers Donald and Casey, Nick's stock has risen considerably since winning his first event in Singapore in February. I've described Dougherty as a winner waiting to happen several times since and this looks the best opportunity to date.
With form and freshness questions surrounding so many of the other Europeans, it should pay to side with the two best performers on the Asian Tour, THONGCHAI JAIDEE and THAWORN WIRATCHANT. Time and again this pair have shown they can compete with the very best Europe can muster when conditions are in their favour and look in a different class to the rest of the 'home' contingent. Both look excellent each-way bets at 20/1.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
AUSTRALIAN OPEN
4pts ew STUART APPLEBY @ 12/1 (LADBROKES)
2pts ew GEOFF OGILVY @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew ROD PAMPLING @ 33/1 (LADBROKES)
1pt ew GREG CHALMERS @ 80/1 (LADBROKES)
VOLVO CHINA OPEN
4pts win PAUL CASEY @ 9/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew THONGCHAI JAIDEE @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew THAWORN WIRATCHANT @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2005 STATISTICS: +65.25pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 5:46 PM
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