World stars to dominate in Japan

With both main Tours either side of the Atlantic now finished for the year, many golf fans and punters consider this time of the year to be the silly season. I, however, look forward to it with relish as I believe picking winners is far easier at this time of year. As the world's top players spread out across the globe, some to the Japanese Tour, some to the European Tour's "Far-East Swing", some down under for the ANZ Tour and some to South Africa, fields are often notable by their lack of strength in depth.

This week's Taiheyo Masters in Japan is a prime example. Top Europeans are always very much worth noting on their rare Japanese excursions. Lee Westwood won this event three years running in the 1990s and last year DARREN CLARKE won in a canter. This time round, Clarke and JUSTIN LEONARD are the only representatives from the World's top 50 players yet both are very fair prices at 8/1 and 14/1 respectively. A huge question mark has surrounded Clarke all year as his season has been seriously distracted by his wife's battle with cancer, and only a fortnight ago he pulled out at halfway during the Volvo Masters. In his previous event in Mallorca, Darren's game had looked in great nick when only a poor week on the greens prevented him from getting in a blow on runaway winner Raphael Jacquelin. As he said after pulling out, "Valderrama is not the place to be when you're mind is elsewhere" so I think we've got to forgive him that effort. This course, Gotemba, is much more straightforward and I expect a more relaxed Clarke to turn up. In fact, he is one of the few players who is probably at his best in such laid-back end of season tournaments - I've always held the view that he gets a bit too wound up when in contention in the more prestigious events.

Leonard is even more obvious at bigger odds. I presume his price is an over-reaction to a very moderate effort at the weekend's Tour Championship. Again, I wouldn't read too much into that. He is the only competitor from that event in Japan this week, and the next players in the betting - David Smail, Dean Wilson and the home players - would all be at least five times the price of Leonard if this were being held in the US. Unlike many of his fellow Americans, Justin has shown over the years that he can produce outside his home country, winning and playing well in several Opens and also Sun City. And lets not forget, 2005 has been the Texan's best year in a long time since beefing up, with two wins on the PGA Tour and four other top-15 finishes. Smail is the only other player from the world's top 100 here (he is number 80 as opposed to Clarke 20th and Leonard 29th), and has lots of winning form in Japan but has never really shone on this course so looks well worth taking on.

Far more attention will be focussed on the HSBC Champions Trophy in China, a new big money event which has managed to attract Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh and most of the top Europeans. What to make of Tiger's chances this week? Well, last weekend was infuriating. For three days, he hit the ball over the place and, as only Tiger can, still managed to somehow craft a competitive score. Then on Sunday, I thought he played well enough to normally have won on a tough course like East Lake, only to run into a player on an amazing streak in Bart Bryant. On that evidence, there's nothing wrong with the offer of 5/2 on the Tiger, but I'm going to look elsewhere for a pre-tournament bet as Woods' form in the lesser events hasn't matched his showing on the big stages this year.

At this stage of the year, it should prove fruitful to look for players who seem fresh and determined to still get something out of the season, as opposed to those winding down. PADRAIG HARRINGTON stands out as a man coming into form at the right time. Pod's season was going well, having landed his first two wins in the US, until his father died just before the Open and the distraction seemed to curtail any serious efforts this summer. Suddenly, a fortnight ago on a course he hates, Valderrama, Ireland's finest sprung back to form with three fine closing rounds. He kept up the good work with 7th place at East Lake and looks highly likely to contend over the next few weeks. It is always important in Asia to side with players who have proved they can cope with the humidity and the different pace of greens. On this count, Harrington again scores well with past wins in Hong Kong and Taiwan along with numerous other good efforts in this part of the world.

Another player who has prospered before in Asia is LEE WESTWOOD, who as I mentioned earlier has previously been prolific in Japan at this time of the year. All in all this prolific winner has six victories on this continent to his name, and is still desperately searching for his first win of 2005. Like Harrington, Westwood just missed out on the money at Valderrama, finishing 7th but comes here in good form and good heart. Asians Vijay Singh and KJ Choi also merit the utmost respect in these conditions, while Miguel Angel Jiminez and Thomas Bjorn also have shown they relish Asian conditions. However, for my final selection, I've simply got to stand by DAVID HOWELL for the time being despite a poor effort at Valderrama. As I've argued several times in recent weeks, Howell is the most improved player in the world and looks certain to really make his mark at a higher level soon. In a limited field, with fatigue an issue for many, the Swindon man looks a solid each-way bet.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

TAIHEYO MASTERS

8pts win DARREN CLARKE @ 8/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
4pts ew JUSTIN LEONARD @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

HSBC CHAMPIONS TROPHY

3pts ew PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 40/1 (SPORTING ODDS)
1pt ew DAVID HOWELL @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)