Els set for glorious return
I'm quite sure all golf fans, and indeed all reasonable minded human beings, will take the opportunity to wish the nicest guy in sport, ERNIE ELS, a successful comeback after several months out with injury at this week's Nedbank Challenge at Sun City, South Africa. As always, 12 world-class players gather for this rich invitational event, with Ernie and compatriot Retief Goosen heading the market.
Between them, and Sergio Garcia, Goose and Ernie have made this tournament their own in recent years. Defending champion Goosen though, has been disappointing on recent outings and can't possibly be backed at a best price of 7/2, and Sergio remains unbackable while his putting remains in crisis. Its notable that Ernie has chosen this event as his comeback, as he originally targetted the New Year, so I'm expecting the Big Easy to be fit and ready. Certainly, Els has the natural talent to win straight after a lay-off. The undisputed King of Sun City, with three titles to his name, a fully-fit and in-form Ernie would be nearer 2/1 than the 9/2 on offer. Take the tip as I'm expecting a big comeback from a man known for starting the season well.
Of the rest, Jim Furyk looks way too short at single figures, while Adam Scott has to deal with very different conditions to the links he struggled on in Australia last week. I prefer CHRIS DIMARCO, who has moved up a level in world golf this year since his gutsy play-off defeat to Tiger at Augusta and his star performance at the Presidents Cup. Having shown some form at Sun City on previous visits, Chris shouldn't be far off the places and looks a decent trade at least.
I could just see LUKE DONALD finally nailing his first win of 2005 this late in the day. The lack of a win must be a disappointment to the Wycombe man but he's still performed with credit consistently all season in the States and remains an outstanding prospect. Sun City has been toughened up, placing a greater emphasis on tee to green accuracy, an area of the game in which Luke has few peers. The clinching factor for me is that Donald has remained in fine form at the end of the season when many others have lost interest.
Regular readers may have noticed a couple of weeks ago that I broke a self-imposed rule and paid the price for it. After numerous brainstorms, collapses and generally erratic golf, I made a rule earlier in the year to never back THOMAS BJORN again. Well, this week really is last chance saloon for Thomas and I, but I just can't resist the price of 12/1 to win the Hong Kong Open.
The case against is obvious. Despite possessing as much talent as the best, Bjorn has thrown in some real stinkers when in contention. Most famously, he blew a golden opportunity to win the 2003 Open when taking three shots to get out of a bunker, but I never really held that against him as he would hardly be the first to bottle a Major. What infuriated me was his persistent ability to find a bizarre double bogey from nowhere to ruin a hot birdie streak. This time last year in Asia, Bjorn looked in great nick and a certain winner only to self-destruct every time. Nevertheless since then, he may have buried that hoodoo by winning at Forest Of Arden in gritty fashion and then only losing out by a shot in the USPGA, having played a flawless back nine. The fact remains that those two performances at the Open and PGA are the closest any European has come to winning a Major this century. Bjorn remains a world class player, and in a limited field like this simply cannot be ignored. A repetition of his excellent fifth two outings ago in the same country would probably be enough to win this week.
The principal opposition comes from last week's winner PAUL CASEY and Colin Montgomerie. Casey's win at the weekend showed once again how little strength in depth there is in these Asian events and how a top player can win without being anywhere near his best. Despite missing two critical short putts in the closing stages, a barrage of lesser rivals failed miserably to go past Casey who sat in the clubhouse for an hour before returning to win a play-off. The Englishman has been extremely consistent just lately and will surely be on the premises again here as he aims for his third 2005 win in Asia.
Monty's chance is obvious were he to repeat the late season form that propelled him to an eighth Order of Merit but there is a strong suggestion that he is struggling to raise his game so quickly after an exhausting effort. Since winning the OOM at Valderrama, Colin's two efforts have been extremely disappointing. And as much as I don't want to take anything away from Monty, it should be remembered that his only victory in the past 20 months came in the Dunhill Links, where he looked anything but convinving on the final day and only won because his main opponent, Kenny Ferrie, literally fell apart when the pressure was on.
Last year four of the top five places in this tournament were filled by Miguel Angel Jiminez, Bjorn, Padraig Harrington and David Howell, so clearly this is a course where the cream can be expected to rise to the top. The case for the Europeans is strengthened further by the fact that the two leading Asians, Jaidee and Wiratchant, have very moderate records here. With Harrington and Howell absent, Jiminez in nowhere near the form of last year, and KJ Choi rather inconsistent of late, the only other leading contender who makes any appeal is NICK DOUGHERTY. Admittedly, I'm having to overlook last week's poor effort when Nick simply never got going in China, but on the basis of his overall 2005 form and particularly his fine effort on his penultimate outing in Hong Kong behind Howell and Woods, 25/1 still makes plenty of each-way appeal.
The ANZ Tour moves on to its regular venue at Coolum Resort for the Australian PGA Championship. Sadly again us Brits will once again be deprived of live televised coverage though, of course, this is no obstacle to my betting intentions. Moonah Links really delivered a beating to several players and it might be sensible to avoid those who suffered badly over the weekend.
A strong field is headed by US Open champ Michael Campbell and Stuart Appleby. Campbell is always to be feared down under, but is overlooked this week as he missed the cut on his only previous Coolum visit and might just be a bit tired after a hectic end to the campaign, just a few days after returning from the Grand Slam event in Hawaii. Appleby is more likely, having finished third here in 2003 and losing nothing in defeat at the weekend, where he very much had the worst of the weather. There was a stage early on Sunday that I thought Apples would complete a superb weekend comeback but he quickly faded. As this week's test is slightly less suitable and at single figure odds, I'm looking for bigger prices.
All things considered, I'm going to have to break an even tighter rule than the one concerning Thomas Bjorn and back perennial loser NICK O'HERN. Coolum was the scene of Nick's one and only career victory back in 1999, and I'm taking a chance that the positive memories can do the trick as surely he must win again soon. O'Hern's form in Europe over the past couple of years has been superbly consistent, and his last two efforts when 3rd behind Howell and Tiger in Hong Kong, and 2nd at the weekend's Australian Open very much mark the left-hander down as the man to beat. If recent outings on home turf are anything to go by, we should have little trouble getting into contention for at least a place - O'Hern has finished top-8 on six of his last seven outings in Australia.
One man I definitely have my eye on both this week and for the coming season is WADE ORMSBY. As a rookie in 2003, Ormsby was bang in contention here before dropping back to 7th on the final nine holes so obviously gets on with the course. Some decent finishes at the end of the European season suggested a profitable winter lay ahead for this fine prospect, and missing the cut at Moonah might work in his favour as he comes to Coolum fresh as opposed to so many others. 100/1 looks tremendous each-way value.
Finally, I'm taking a small each-way chance on another very hot prospect, CAMILIO VILLEGAS. I must confess my first hand viewings of Villegas are extremely limited as he plies his trade on the Nationwide Tour which is never televised here. But his results and reputation suggest he has a big future in the game and should be one of the most exciting recruits to the PGA Tour this coming season. The Colombian looked set for a place at the weekend before a couple of late bogeys, but his record in Australia shows he likes it out here and may well have been underestimated by the bookies at 50/1.
NEDBANK CHALLENGE
6pts win ERNIE ELS @ 9/2 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew CHRIS DIMARCO @ 16/1 (HILLS, BOYLES)
1.5pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 16/1 (TOTESPORT)
HONG KONG OPEN
3pts ew THOMAS BJORN @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
4pts win PAUL CASEY @ 10/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 25/1 (BETFRED, BET DIRECT, SKYBET)
AUSTRALIAN PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
2.5pts ew NICK O'HERN @ 14/1 (CORALS, LADBROKES)
1pt ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew WADE ORMSBY @ 100/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2005 STATISTICS: +69.25pts
Between them, and Sergio Garcia, Goose and Ernie have made this tournament their own in recent years. Defending champion Goosen though, has been disappointing on recent outings and can't possibly be backed at a best price of 7/2, and Sergio remains unbackable while his putting remains in crisis. Its notable that Ernie has chosen this event as his comeback, as he originally targetted the New Year, so I'm expecting the Big Easy to be fit and ready. Certainly, Els has the natural talent to win straight after a lay-off. The undisputed King of Sun City, with three titles to his name, a fully-fit and in-form Ernie would be nearer 2/1 than the 9/2 on offer. Take the tip as I'm expecting a big comeback from a man known for starting the season well.
Of the rest, Jim Furyk looks way too short at single figures, while Adam Scott has to deal with very different conditions to the links he struggled on in Australia last week. I prefer CHRIS DIMARCO, who has moved up a level in world golf this year since his gutsy play-off defeat to Tiger at Augusta and his star performance at the Presidents Cup. Having shown some form at Sun City on previous visits, Chris shouldn't be far off the places and looks a decent trade at least.
I could just see LUKE DONALD finally nailing his first win of 2005 this late in the day. The lack of a win must be a disappointment to the Wycombe man but he's still performed with credit consistently all season in the States and remains an outstanding prospect. Sun City has been toughened up, placing a greater emphasis on tee to green accuracy, an area of the game in which Luke has few peers. The clinching factor for me is that Donald has remained in fine form at the end of the season when many others have lost interest.
Regular readers may have noticed a couple of weeks ago that I broke a self-imposed rule and paid the price for it. After numerous brainstorms, collapses and generally erratic golf, I made a rule earlier in the year to never back THOMAS BJORN again. Well, this week really is last chance saloon for Thomas and I, but I just can't resist the price of 12/1 to win the Hong Kong Open.
The case against is obvious. Despite possessing as much talent as the best, Bjorn has thrown in some real stinkers when in contention. Most famously, he blew a golden opportunity to win the 2003 Open when taking three shots to get out of a bunker, but I never really held that against him as he would hardly be the first to bottle a Major. What infuriated me was his persistent ability to find a bizarre double bogey from nowhere to ruin a hot birdie streak. This time last year in Asia, Bjorn looked in great nick and a certain winner only to self-destruct every time. Nevertheless since then, he may have buried that hoodoo by winning at Forest Of Arden in gritty fashion and then only losing out by a shot in the USPGA, having played a flawless back nine. The fact remains that those two performances at the Open and PGA are the closest any European has come to winning a Major this century. Bjorn remains a world class player, and in a limited field like this simply cannot be ignored. A repetition of his excellent fifth two outings ago in the same country would probably be enough to win this week.
The principal opposition comes from last week's winner PAUL CASEY and Colin Montgomerie. Casey's win at the weekend showed once again how little strength in depth there is in these Asian events and how a top player can win without being anywhere near his best. Despite missing two critical short putts in the closing stages, a barrage of lesser rivals failed miserably to go past Casey who sat in the clubhouse for an hour before returning to win a play-off. The Englishman has been extremely consistent just lately and will surely be on the premises again here as he aims for his third 2005 win in Asia.
Monty's chance is obvious were he to repeat the late season form that propelled him to an eighth Order of Merit but there is a strong suggestion that he is struggling to raise his game so quickly after an exhausting effort. Since winning the OOM at Valderrama, Colin's two efforts have been extremely disappointing. And as much as I don't want to take anything away from Monty, it should be remembered that his only victory in the past 20 months came in the Dunhill Links, where he looked anything but convinving on the final day and only won because his main opponent, Kenny Ferrie, literally fell apart when the pressure was on.
Last year four of the top five places in this tournament were filled by Miguel Angel Jiminez, Bjorn, Padraig Harrington and David Howell, so clearly this is a course where the cream can be expected to rise to the top. The case for the Europeans is strengthened further by the fact that the two leading Asians, Jaidee and Wiratchant, have very moderate records here. With Harrington and Howell absent, Jiminez in nowhere near the form of last year, and KJ Choi rather inconsistent of late, the only other leading contender who makes any appeal is NICK DOUGHERTY. Admittedly, I'm having to overlook last week's poor effort when Nick simply never got going in China, but on the basis of his overall 2005 form and particularly his fine effort on his penultimate outing in Hong Kong behind Howell and Woods, 25/1 still makes plenty of each-way appeal.
The ANZ Tour moves on to its regular venue at Coolum Resort for the Australian PGA Championship. Sadly again us Brits will once again be deprived of live televised coverage though, of course, this is no obstacle to my betting intentions. Moonah Links really delivered a beating to several players and it might be sensible to avoid those who suffered badly over the weekend.
A strong field is headed by US Open champ Michael Campbell and Stuart Appleby. Campbell is always to be feared down under, but is overlooked this week as he missed the cut on his only previous Coolum visit and might just be a bit tired after a hectic end to the campaign, just a few days after returning from the Grand Slam event in Hawaii. Appleby is more likely, having finished third here in 2003 and losing nothing in defeat at the weekend, where he very much had the worst of the weather. There was a stage early on Sunday that I thought Apples would complete a superb weekend comeback but he quickly faded. As this week's test is slightly less suitable and at single figure odds, I'm looking for bigger prices.
All things considered, I'm going to have to break an even tighter rule than the one concerning Thomas Bjorn and back perennial loser NICK O'HERN. Coolum was the scene of Nick's one and only career victory back in 1999, and I'm taking a chance that the positive memories can do the trick as surely he must win again soon. O'Hern's form in Europe over the past couple of years has been superbly consistent, and his last two efforts when 3rd behind Howell and Tiger in Hong Kong, and 2nd at the weekend's Australian Open very much mark the left-hander down as the man to beat. If recent outings on home turf are anything to go by, we should have little trouble getting into contention for at least a place - O'Hern has finished top-8 on six of his last seven outings in Australia.
One man I definitely have my eye on both this week and for the coming season is WADE ORMSBY. As a rookie in 2003, Ormsby was bang in contention here before dropping back to 7th on the final nine holes so obviously gets on with the course. Some decent finishes at the end of the European season suggested a profitable winter lay ahead for this fine prospect, and missing the cut at Moonah might work in his favour as he comes to Coolum fresh as opposed to so many others. 100/1 looks tremendous each-way value.
Finally, I'm taking a small each-way chance on another very hot prospect, CAMILIO VILLEGAS. I must confess my first hand viewings of Villegas are extremely limited as he plies his trade on the Nationwide Tour which is never televised here. But his results and reputation suggest he has a big future in the game and should be one of the most exciting recruits to the PGA Tour this coming season. The Colombian looked set for a place at the weekend before a couple of late bogeys, but his record in Australia shows he likes it out here and may well have been underestimated by the bookies at 50/1.
NEDBANK CHALLENGE
6pts win ERNIE ELS @ 9/2 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew CHRIS DIMARCO @ 16/1 (HILLS, BOYLES)
1.5pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 16/1 (TOTESPORT)
HONG KONG OPEN
3pts ew THOMAS BJORN @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
4pts win PAUL CASEY @ 10/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 25/1 (BETFRED, BET DIRECT, SKYBET)
AUSTRALIAN PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
2.5pts ew NICK O'HERN @ 14/1 (CORALS, LADBROKES)
1pt ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew WADE ORMSBY @ 100/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2005 STATISTICS: +69.25pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 5:26 PM
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