Tiger Unopposable in Phoenix
This week sees the final, and clearly the least prestigious, of the World Golf Championship events with the World Cup staged at Portugal's Victoria Club de Golfe. The World Cup is played in a pairs format and historically has been dominated by the US, though nowadays the Americans treat the tournament with contempt. Despite possessing five of the world's top 10 ranked players, apparently the best pair they can come up with are 25th ranked Stewart Cink and 49th best Zach Johnson. Both are decent players, but make little appeal in the Mediterranean where I've never seen either perform.
There is a real gulf in class amongst the 24 nations competing, with at least 6 way out of their depth and a further 8 representing little value despite odds of at least 40/1 so perhaps the best betting strategy is to use a process of elimination. Of the other 10, the US make no appeal, while the Australians have no previous record in the event to make their chance obvious despite a competitive looking pairing of Peter Lonard and Mark Hensby. 28/1 shots France could have been given a squeak on paper were it not for Thomas Levet's complete lack of recent form so if we rule out these 3, only 7 teams remain worthy of consideration.
The market is dominated by ENGLAND, SPAIN and Ireland. The English pairing of Luke Donald and last week's winner David Howell look certain to be on the premises, such is the consistency of both players' long game. Last year Donald, with partner Paul Casey, edged out the Spanish pairing of Sergio Garcia and Miguel Angel-Jiminez by a shot with Irish pair Padraig Harrington and Paul McGinley, (who won this event in the 1990s), a close third. Of the three, I marginally favour England for a successful defence of their title, as Howell and Donald look the most in-form pairing, but at 4/1 the bookies are hardly giving money away. I also recommend combining England and Spain with 'good thing' Tiger Woods in Japan - the odds equate to between 11/2 and 13/2.
For an each-way alternative, WALES look fair value at 25/1. Bradley Dredge has been extremely consistent in the latter half of 2005 while partner Stephen Dodd won twice earlier in the year and has three top-10 finishes from his last six events in Portugal. Both finished with sub-70 rounds at the weekend so come here in decent nick. Dredge in particular would look a winner waiting to happen if he were not so nervy on the final day. However such problems are often overcome in team golf, where the burden is shared and a player feels less lonely when the heat is on.
The other three teams with chances this week are South Africa, who would have been a selection were it not for injury doubts surrounding Trevor Immelman, big-hitting Argentine duo Angel Cabrera and Ricardo Gonzalez and Sweden. Swedish pair Henrik Stenson and Niclas Fasth look a danger but, in keeping with general trends about Stenson, look seriously underpriced.
The main singles event of the week is the Dunlop Phoenix Open in Japan. With only 8 players from the world's top 100, its very hard to see past a successful defence for TIGER WOODS. Last year Woods arrived in Japan on the back of a disastrous campaign by his own exceptional standards, having failed to win a single strokeplay event, only to answer his critics in the best possible way by with a facile 8 shot victory. Though still looking a bit wayward from the tee, his form has been incomparable in 2005 with 6 victories including two Majors and two World Golf Championships. Over the past fortnight, Woods has been unlucky to run into two inspired front-running performances from Bart Bryant and David Howell, and is unlikely to face such a challenge this week.
At least several of Tiger's pricincipal rivals have shown in the past that they won't flinch in a head to head with the great man over the weekend. Jim Furyk emerged trimuphant from his dual with Woods at the Western Open in July, while Michael Campbell's self belief has been transformed since his memorable triumph at the US Open. Pick of the opposition though is THOMAS BJORN, who beat Tiger in Dubai back in the days when just about everybody recoiled from a showdown such was Woods' aura of invincibility, despite playing all four rounds together. Denmark's finest has an awesome record in this event, winning twice in the last four years and never finishing worse than 12th. Last year he took the eye again, staying on strongly into 7th despite a disastrous first round. After a promising 5th in China at the weekend, this regular Asian winner looks set for a profitable winter.
An even more obvious favourite this week is Retief Goosen on a rare Sunshine Tour appearance in his native South Africa. Goose is a best priced 11/10 to deliver but this is a short price too far for a value seeker such as myself, especially considering his lacklustre final round performance at the Tour Championship and the driving problems he encountered both there and the previous week. Rivals are not exactly obvious with Charl Schwartzel disappointing in Europe of late while similar comments apply to Darren Fichardt. So for an interest, I recommend a couple of small each-way bets on RICHARD STERNE and TITCH MOORE.
Sterne is very highly rated and has a big future ahead of him. In the first half of 2005, he put together a very impressive consistent run of high finishes amongst far more competitive company on the European Tour. Though his form tailed off a bit, a closing 67 in China at the weekend suggests he might be coming into form again just in time for the forthcoming big tournaments on his home tour. Big-hitting Moore is very consistent at this level, with fifteen top-10 finishes on the Sunshine Tour over the past three winters, including 3 victories. Moore finished top-10 in the prestige Dunhill Links Championship recently and looks bound to be close up again this week in such weak company.
Good Luck!
WORLD CUP OF GOLF
3pts win ENGLAND @ 4/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew WALES @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
DUNLOP PHOENIX OPEN
8pts win TIGER WOODS @ 13/8 (SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew THOMAS BJORN @ 18/1 (BETFRED, UK BETTING, SPORTING ODDS)
2 X 2pts WIN DOUBLES ENGLAND/SPAIN @ TIGER WOODS (BEST PRICES WITH VICTOR CHANDLER)
LIMPOPO CLASSIC
1pt ew RICHARD STERNE @ 20/1 (STAN JAMES, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew TITCH MOORE @ 28/1 (STAN JAMES, PADDY POWER)
2005 STATISTICS: +24.25pts
There is a real gulf in class amongst the 24 nations competing, with at least 6 way out of their depth and a further 8 representing little value despite odds of at least 40/1 so perhaps the best betting strategy is to use a process of elimination. Of the other 10, the US make no appeal, while the Australians have no previous record in the event to make their chance obvious despite a competitive looking pairing of Peter Lonard and Mark Hensby. 28/1 shots France could have been given a squeak on paper were it not for Thomas Levet's complete lack of recent form so if we rule out these 3, only 7 teams remain worthy of consideration.
The market is dominated by ENGLAND, SPAIN and Ireland. The English pairing of Luke Donald and last week's winner David Howell look certain to be on the premises, such is the consistency of both players' long game. Last year Donald, with partner Paul Casey, edged out the Spanish pairing of Sergio Garcia and Miguel Angel-Jiminez by a shot with Irish pair Padraig Harrington and Paul McGinley, (who won this event in the 1990s), a close third. Of the three, I marginally favour England for a successful defence of their title, as Howell and Donald look the most in-form pairing, but at 4/1 the bookies are hardly giving money away. I also recommend combining England and Spain with 'good thing' Tiger Woods in Japan - the odds equate to between 11/2 and 13/2.
For an each-way alternative, WALES look fair value at 25/1. Bradley Dredge has been extremely consistent in the latter half of 2005 while partner Stephen Dodd won twice earlier in the year and has three top-10 finishes from his last six events in Portugal. Both finished with sub-70 rounds at the weekend so come here in decent nick. Dredge in particular would look a winner waiting to happen if he were not so nervy on the final day. However such problems are often overcome in team golf, where the burden is shared and a player feels less lonely when the heat is on.
The other three teams with chances this week are South Africa, who would have been a selection were it not for injury doubts surrounding Trevor Immelman, big-hitting Argentine duo Angel Cabrera and Ricardo Gonzalez and Sweden. Swedish pair Henrik Stenson and Niclas Fasth look a danger but, in keeping with general trends about Stenson, look seriously underpriced.
The main singles event of the week is the Dunlop Phoenix Open in Japan. With only 8 players from the world's top 100, its very hard to see past a successful defence for TIGER WOODS. Last year Woods arrived in Japan on the back of a disastrous campaign by his own exceptional standards, having failed to win a single strokeplay event, only to answer his critics in the best possible way by with a facile 8 shot victory. Though still looking a bit wayward from the tee, his form has been incomparable in 2005 with 6 victories including two Majors and two World Golf Championships. Over the past fortnight, Woods has been unlucky to run into two inspired front-running performances from Bart Bryant and David Howell, and is unlikely to face such a challenge this week.
At least several of Tiger's pricincipal rivals have shown in the past that they won't flinch in a head to head with the great man over the weekend. Jim Furyk emerged trimuphant from his dual with Woods at the Western Open in July, while Michael Campbell's self belief has been transformed since his memorable triumph at the US Open. Pick of the opposition though is THOMAS BJORN, who beat Tiger in Dubai back in the days when just about everybody recoiled from a showdown such was Woods' aura of invincibility, despite playing all four rounds together. Denmark's finest has an awesome record in this event, winning twice in the last four years and never finishing worse than 12th. Last year he took the eye again, staying on strongly into 7th despite a disastrous first round. After a promising 5th in China at the weekend, this regular Asian winner looks set for a profitable winter.
An even more obvious favourite this week is Retief Goosen on a rare Sunshine Tour appearance in his native South Africa. Goose is a best priced 11/10 to deliver but this is a short price too far for a value seeker such as myself, especially considering his lacklustre final round performance at the Tour Championship and the driving problems he encountered both there and the previous week. Rivals are not exactly obvious with Charl Schwartzel disappointing in Europe of late while similar comments apply to Darren Fichardt. So for an interest, I recommend a couple of small each-way bets on RICHARD STERNE and TITCH MOORE.
Sterne is very highly rated and has a big future ahead of him. In the first half of 2005, he put together a very impressive consistent run of high finishes amongst far more competitive company on the European Tour. Though his form tailed off a bit, a closing 67 in China at the weekend suggests he might be coming into form again just in time for the forthcoming big tournaments on his home tour. Big-hitting Moore is very consistent at this level, with fifteen top-10 finishes on the Sunshine Tour over the past three winters, including 3 victories. Moore finished top-10 in the prestige Dunhill Links Championship recently and looks bound to be close up again this week in such weak company.
Good Luck!
WORLD CUP OF GOLF
3pts win ENGLAND @ 4/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew WALES @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
DUNLOP PHOENIX OPEN
8pts win TIGER WOODS @ 13/8 (SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew THOMAS BJORN @ 18/1 (BETFRED, UK BETTING, SPORTING ODDS)
2 X 2pts WIN DOUBLES ENGLAND/SPAIN @ TIGER WOODS (BEST PRICES WITH VICTOR CHANDLER)
LIMPOPO CLASSIC
1pt ew RICHARD STERNE @ 20/1 (STAN JAMES, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew TITCH MOORE @ 28/1 (STAN JAMES, PADDY POWER)
2005 STATISTICS: +24.25pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 9:15 PM
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