Ryder Cup Betting Preview
Its been a long, hard year on the golf betting front, but at last there is a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. A couple of moderate wins over the past fortnight have reduced the annual deficit, but more importantly Paul Casey stands on the brink of landing a 33/1 touch in the Order of Merit after his victory in the World Matchplay. He's no certainty just yet as there's still three lucrative events to go in which a victory or pair of victories could bring several players into the argument beyond Casey and David Howell. But I'm confident enough to resist having any savers just yet. Howell was struggling with back and neck injuries last week and could have his work cut out earning the 300,000 Euros he needs to have any chance of overhauling Casey. As for the others, they can be guarded against if and when they get closer to the target.
And of course the outcome of this week's Ryder Cup will no doubt play a big part in the struggle to maintain an annual profit. I'm going in heavily here, and confidently expect a win for Europe. Prior to the last Ryder Cup when the outsiders Europe hammered the US, every Ryder Cup in living memory had been a toss of a coin affair at some stage on the final day. If the norm were to resume, prices of just under Evens on a European win would be no more than fair, but there are several reasons to think that their price should be significantly shorter. Firstly, it is legitimate to argue that the reasons those matches were so close was because the Europeans consistently performed beyond the expectations of the formbook. There is consensus that Europe have mastered the art of building the kind of camaraderie and team ethic more effectively than the Americans, who have often resembled a bunch of individuals. The statistic that identifies this better than any is a massive 23 point aggregate lead held by Europe in the pairs matches since 1983. While I'm sure the US will be determined to erase the memories of 2004 under what appears to be a shrewd captain in Tom Lehman, there is no reason to suggest Team Europe will be any less formidable.
The US have consistently started as favourites in Ryder Cups, as a consequence of the superior records of their players in strokeplay tournaments. For the first time this simply isn't the case.
Whilst the US do boast the world's best three players in Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Jim Furyk, their side also includes several distinctly moderate players. Brett Wetterich strikes me as the type of player who we won't hear about for another 5 years until he pops up at 500/1 in a PGA Tour event. At least he did prove his 'bottle' in winning twice earlier in the year, but I could think of at least 25 similar US players of the same standard who didn't qualify for the team. Zach Johnson and Vaughan Taylor are decent prospects, but completely unproven and inexperienced outside the US. The same comments apply to JJ Henry, though I'd rate him below that promising pair. Chad Campbell back to his best would be expected to play a leading role, but has shown no hint of form for months. Even pivotal players like Scott Verplank, David Toms and Chris Dimarco aren't in form. Woods seems certain to resume his successful Presidents Cup partnership with Furyk in a bid to improve on a dire record in this event, but even here this strategy has the danger of putting all their eggs in one basket.
In stark contrast Europe have few, if any, serious worries about form. Paul McGinley and Darren Clarke probably have the most to prove, but are still strongly fancied to produce in Ireland. When this venue was used for the European Open in July, wind and rain made scoring very tough and the course penal for anyone straying off line. Bad weather is always expected to suit the Europeans anyway, but if the forecast is as expected, this really isn't the ideal scenario for inexperienced Americans used to target golf who've rarely played outside their own country. Even more so if they're struggling for form. Chad Campbell is the only player bar Woods on the US side who excels in tough conditions, but he comes here in the worst form of anyone.
So here's the betting strategy. I suggest backing Europe to win the match at a shade of odds-on, and on the handicap giving away 1.5 shots, alongside a buy of their points supremacy at 0.9 on the spreads. If as expected the Europeans win comfortably that should yield a decent profit. But its also well worth laying whichever side when they have built a lead and are strongly odds-on with a view to trading out for a profit when the situation reverses. Prior to the 2004 thrashing of Oakland Hills, that strategy would have yielded a healthy profit in every Ryder Cup going back to 1983.
The top team scorer markets normally offer a bit of value. Only a handful of players can be expected to play in all 5 potential matches, and its safe to discount all of those who are unlikely to get more than 3 matches as the winner can be expected to accumulate at least 3.5 points. In previous matches, when Europe had an easily defined core of superstars who could be expected to dominate the team selections in fourballs and foursomes. Nowadays though, the side is so strong in depth that its not that easy to see who to leave out. There are some obvious pairings we can probably identify early. SERGIO GARCIA has formed brilliant partnerships in the past with Lee Westwood in fourballs and Luke Donald in foursomes. Donald in turn has partnered Casey to a World Cup triumph, so perhaps they might team up in fourballs. I have a suspicion that Colin Montgomerie will again be paired with Padraig Harrington. Garcia, Donald and Harrington look set to play all five, with the Spaniard again looking the best bet at 6/1. Sergio has a Ryder Cup record to die for, winning 10 points from three appearances and only losing one from ten pairs matches. He has the perfect matchplay temperament and seems to come alive in this team format, and if conditions are as bad as expected his superb long game should prosper.
With the US team. it does look a little easier to identify a core. I would imagine Tom Lehman is planning to use Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk, Phil Mickelson, Chris Dimarco and STEWART CINK in all five sets of matches. The reasons I'm going with Cink are firstly the double-figure price which considerably beats the price of the other 4, and secondly form. Whereas team-mates Campbell, Johnson, Wetterich, Dimarco, Toms and Verplank have only five top-10 finishes since May between the six of them, Cink comes here on the back of four top-5 finishes in his last eight starts. Another advantage he has over so many of his rivals is a proven ability to play in fairly bad weather. If the Woods/Furyk partnership were only to win 2 points out of a potential 4, 12/1 on an in-form, probable ever-present like Cink would look massive each-way value.
Good Luck!
RYDER CUP
20pts win EUROPE @ 9/10 (HILLS. 1.97 ON BETFAIR)
8pts EUROPE (-1.5pts) @ 11/8 (BETFAIR)
BUY EUROPE/USA POINTS SUPREMACY 10pts @ 0.9 (SPREADEX)
TOP EUROPEAN SCORER
5pts SERGIO GARCIA @ 6/1 (BETFAIR, BLUESQ, VICTOR CHANDLER, SPORTING ODDS)
TOP US SCORER
3pts ew STEWART CINK @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-72.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
And of course the outcome of this week's Ryder Cup will no doubt play a big part in the struggle to maintain an annual profit. I'm going in heavily here, and confidently expect a win for Europe. Prior to the last Ryder Cup when the outsiders Europe hammered the US, every Ryder Cup in living memory had been a toss of a coin affair at some stage on the final day. If the norm were to resume, prices of just under Evens on a European win would be no more than fair, but there are several reasons to think that their price should be significantly shorter. Firstly, it is legitimate to argue that the reasons those matches were so close was because the Europeans consistently performed beyond the expectations of the formbook. There is consensus that Europe have mastered the art of building the kind of camaraderie and team ethic more effectively than the Americans, who have often resembled a bunch of individuals. The statistic that identifies this better than any is a massive 23 point aggregate lead held by Europe in the pairs matches since 1983. While I'm sure the US will be determined to erase the memories of 2004 under what appears to be a shrewd captain in Tom Lehman, there is no reason to suggest Team Europe will be any less formidable.
The US have consistently started as favourites in Ryder Cups, as a consequence of the superior records of their players in strokeplay tournaments. For the first time this simply isn't the case.
Whilst the US do boast the world's best three players in Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Jim Furyk, their side also includes several distinctly moderate players. Brett Wetterich strikes me as the type of player who we won't hear about for another 5 years until he pops up at 500/1 in a PGA Tour event. At least he did prove his 'bottle' in winning twice earlier in the year, but I could think of at least 25 similar US players of the same standard who didn't qualify for the team. Zach Johnson and Vaughan Taylor are decent prospects, but completely unproven and inexperienced outside the US. The same comments apply to JJ Henry, though I'd rate him below that promising pair. Chad Campbell back to his best would be expected to play a leading role, but has shown no hint of form for months. Even pivotal players like Scott Verplank, David Toms and Chris Dimarco aren't in form. Woods seems certain to resume his successful Presidents Cup partnership with Furyk in a bid to improve on a dire record in this event, but even here this strategy has the danger of putting all their eggs in one basket.
In stark contrast Europe have few, if any, serious worries about form. Paul McGinley and Darren Clarke probably have the most to prove, but are still strongly fancied to produce in Ireland. When this venue was used for the European Open in July, wind and rain made scoring very tough and the course penal for anyone straying off line. Bad weather is always expected to suit the Europeans anyway, but if the forecast is as expected, this really isn't the ideal scenario for inexperienced Americans used to target golf who've rarely played outside their own country. Even more so if they're struggling for form. Chad Campbell is the only player bar Woods on the US side who excels in tough conditions, but he comes here in the worst form of anyone.
So here's the betting strategy. I suggest backing Europe to win the match at a shade of odds-on, and on the handicap giving away 1.5 shots, alongside a buy of their points supremacy at 0.9 on the spreads. If as expected the Europeans win comfortably that should yield a decent profit. But its also well worth laying whichever side when they have built a lead and are strongly odds-on with a view to trading out for a profit when the situation reverses. Prior to the 2004 thrashing of Oakland Hills, that strategy would have yielded a healthy profit in every Ryder Cup going back to 1983.
The top team scorer markets normally offer a bit of value. Only a handful of players can be expected to play in all 5 potential matches, and its safe to discount all of those who are unlikely to get more than 3 matches as the winner can be expected to accumulate at least 3.5 points. In previous matches, when Europe had an easily defined core of superstars who could be expected to dominate the team selections in fourballs and foursomes. Nowadays though, the side is so strong in depth that its not that easy to see who to leave out. There are some obvious pairings we can probably identify early. SERGIO GARCIA has formed brilliant partnerships in the past with Lee Westwood in fourballs and Luke Donald in foursomes. Donald in turn has partnered Casey to a World Cup triumph, so perhaps they might team up in fourballs. I have a suspicion that Colin Montgomerie will again be paired with Padraig Harrington. Garcia, Donald and Harrington look set to play all five, with the Spaniard again looking the best bet at 6/1. Sergio has a Ryder Cup record to die for, winning 10 points from three appearances and only losing one from ten pairs matches. He has the perfect matchplay temperament and seems to come alive in this team format, and if conditions are as bad as expected his superb long game should prosper.
With the US team. it does look a little easier to identify a core. I would imagine Tom Lehman is planning to use Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk, Phil Mickelson, Chris Dimarco and STEWART CINK in all five sets of matches. The reasons I'm going with Cink are firstly the double-figure price which considerably beats the price of the other 4, and secondly form. Whereas team-mates Campbell, Johnson, Wetterich, Dimarco, Toms and Verplank have only five top-10 finishes since May between the six of them, Cink comes here on the back of four top-5 finishes in his last eight starts. Another advantage he has over so many of his rivals is a proven ability to play in fairly bad weather. If the Woods/Furyk partnership were only to win 2 points out of a potential 4, 12/1 on an in-form, probable ever-present like Cink would look massive each-way value.
Good Luck!
RYDER CUP
20pts win EUROPE @ 9/10 (HILLS. 1.97 ON BETFAIR)
8pts EUROPE (-1.5pts) @ 11/8 (BETFAIR)
BUY EUROPE/USA POINTS SUPREMACY 10pts @ 0.9 (SPREADEX)
TOP EUROPEAN SCORER
5pts SERGIO GARCIA @ 6/1 (BETFAIR, BLUESQ, VICTOR CHANDLER, SPORTING ODDS)
TOP US SCORER
3pts ew STEWART CINK @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-72.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 4:20 PM
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