European Masters/Canadian Open Betting Previews
A slightly smaller package of outright golf bets this week. . First to Crans-Sur-Sierre in Switzerland for the European Masters. A quality field used to turn up for this one, but now we should be thankful that SERGIO GARCIA has a house nearby because he is the only player from the world's top-50 in attendance.
Played in rarefied air 5000ft above sea level, the ball travels further than usual on an already short course. The course's main defences are the rough, and the wierd, saucer-shaped greens. The result is a big advantage to the best players who hit it long and straight, and who possess good short games to get near the tricky pin positions. In all of these respects, defending champion Garcia is in a class of his own here. Before winning last year, he blew a great winning chance behind Luke Donald in 2004. There is nobody in Donald's class in opposition this week. The closest challengers are Miguel-Angel Jiminez and Simon Dyson. Jiminez at his best would be a serious contender, but has been out of form for months. Dyson holds the best recent form, but as a consequence his price is plenty short enough.
The PGA Tour moves on to Canada for their national Open. The only time in recent years the event was held at the old-fashioned Hamilton course, it was won by the unfathomable Bob Tway at what seems like a very short 80/1. A further look at the top-10 confirms that accuracy is very much the order of the day on a tough course. With Tiger giving the rest a chance by having a week off, many will look to Vijay Singh after his resurgent showing at the Deutsche Bank. I'm not falling for that old chestnut though - he'll probably win now but I've had enough of losing money on Vijay in the last year. It would come as no surprise to me at all if he slipped back into the poor form of the previous month. Instead, I've got a team of six to go into battle with.
I've said several times recently that JIM FURYK is now the closest challenger to Woods and Mickelson. On a course like this that rewards accuracy, I'd go further and suggest he's second only to Woods. The only problem is his career-long tendency to finish 2nd or 3rd. I don't think there's anything wrong with his temperament, so put it down to the fact that ultra-consistent players will obviously miss out more often than they win. He must enter the staking plan here at 8/1.
You won't go far wrong backing home players in their national Opens, and MIKE WEIR has a blindingly obvious chance here. He lost nothing in defeat at the USPGA, and deserves a win after a very consistent season. Top-10 here 2 years ago and desperate to please his public, I can't see the accurate left-hander being far away on a course that suits.
I'm also giving one more chance to ZACH JOHNSON, who must surely deliver soon. Again, his accurate game should be rewarded on this golf course, and 50/1 looks a very fair each-way punt. Johnson will win plenty during his career, and is overdue. And WOODY AUSTIN could go close here at a nice 80/1. Austin, a former rookie of the year and twice a PGA Tour winner, has been playing his best golf for a while, racking up excellent tee-to-green statistics and a series of high finishes. He's prospered well on narrow tracks with small greens in the past, so these odds must be worth a go.
Completing the staking plan, I have two Aussies at three figure odds. Both relish tough, old-fashioned golf courses and the test they provide. The first, STEPHEN LEANEY, is a multiple winner around the world and long overdue his first PGA Tour win. The 2003 US Open runner-up has been in fine fettle lately, making his last five cuts with two top-10s and a top-20. 100/1 looks big. And at a massive 250/1, lets give another chance to MATTHEW GOGGIN. Since a highly creditable runner-up placing at the Western Open in July, Goggin has missed all his cuts and the price is back to where it was before he showed such promise. That doesn't surprise me, as he's never been consistent, but time after time he has shown his best on the toughest courses.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
EUROPEAN MASTERS
8pts win SERGIO GARCIA @ 5/1 (PREMIERBET, BETFRED, PADDY POWER)
CANADIAN OPEN
5pts win JIM FURYK @ 8/1 (LADBROKES, PREMIERBET, TOTE)
2pts ew MIKE WEIR @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 22/1 WITH VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 50/1 (BLUESQ, LADBROKES)
1pt ew WOODY AUSTIN @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew STEPHEN LEANEY @ 100/1 (BLUESQ, HILLS)
0.5pts ew MATTHEW GOGGIN @ 250/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-125.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
Played in rarefied air 5000ft above sea level, the ball travels further than usual on an already short course. The course's main defences are the rough, and the wierd, saucer-shaped greens. The result is a big advantage to the best players who hit it long and straight, and who possess good short games to get near the tricky pin positions. In all of these respects, defending champion Garcia is in a class of his own here. Before winning last year, he blew a great winning chance behind Luke Donald in 2004. There is nobody in Donald's class in opposition this week. The closest challengers are Miguel-Angel Jiminez and Simon Dyson. Jiminez at his best would be a serious contender, but has been out of form for months. Dyson holds the best recent form, but as a consequence his price is plenty short enough.
The PGA Tour moves on to Canada for their national Open. The only time in recent years the event was held at the old-fashioned Hamilton course, it was won by the unfathomable Bob Tway at what seems like a very short 80/1. A further look at the top-10 confirms that accuracy is very much the order of the day on a tough course. With Tiger giving the rest a chance by having a week off, many will look to Vijay Singh after his resurgent showing at the Deutsche Bank. I'm not falling for that old chestnut though - he'll probably win now but I've had enough of losing money on Vijay in the last year. It would come as no surprise to me at all if he slipped back into the poor form of the previous month. Instead, I've got a team of six to go into battle with.
I've said several times recently that JIM FURYK is now the closest challenger to Woods and Mickelson. On a course like this that rewards accuracy, I'd go further and suggest he's second only to Woods. The only problem is his career-long tendency to finish 2nd or 3rd. I don't think there's anything wrong with his temperament, so put it down to the fact that ultra-consistent players will obviously miss out more often than they win. He must enter the staking plan here at 8/1.
You won't go far wrong backing home players in their national Opens, and MIKE WEIR has a blindingly obvious chance here. He lost nothing in defeat at the USPGA, and deserves a win after a very consistent season. Top-10 here 2 years ago and desperate to please his public, I can't see the accurate left-hander being far away on a course that suits.
I'm also giving one more chance to ZACH JOHNSON, who must surely deliver soon. Again, his accurate game should be rewarded on this golf course, and 50/1 looks a very fair each-way punt. Johnson will win plenty during his career, and is overdue. And WOODY AUSTIN could go close here at a nice 80/1. Austin, a former rookie of the year and twice a PGA Tour winner, has been playing his best golf for a while, racking up excellent tee-to-green statistics and a series of high finishes. He's prospered well on narrow tracks with small greens in the past, so these odds must be worth a go.
Completing the staking plan, I have two Aussies at three figure odds. Both relish tough, old-fashioned golf courses and the test they provide. The first, STEPHEN LEANEY, is a multiple winner around the world and long overdue his first PGA Tour win. The 2003 US Open runner-up has been in fine fettle lately, making his last five cuts with two top-10s and a top-20. 100/1 looks big. And at a massive 250/1, lets give another chance to MATTHEW GOGGIN. Since a highly creditable runner-up placing at the Western Open in July, Goggin has missed all his cuts and the price is back to where it was before he showed such promise. That doesn't surprise me, as he's never been consistent, but time after time he has shown his best on the toughest courses.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
EUROPEAN MASTERS
8pts win SERGIO GARCIA @ 5/1 (PREMIERBET, BETFRED, PADDY POWER)
CANADIAN OPEN
5pts win JIM FURYK @ 8/1 (LADBROKES, PREMIERBET, TOTE)
2pts ew MIKE WEIR @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 22/1 WITH VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 50/1 (BLUESQ, LADBROKES)
1pt ew WOODY AUSTIN @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew STEPHEN LEANEY @ 100/1 (BLUESQ, HILLS)
0.5pts ew MATTHEW GOGGIN @ 250/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-125.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 4:01 AM
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