Betting previews for HSBC World Matchplay/84 Lumber Classic/Madrid Open
As anticipation builds just a week away from the Ryder Cup, I'm pleasantly surprised to see three televised high quality golf tournaments starting on Thursday. Normally we might have expected to see next week's contestants taking a week off to fine tune their games, but thankfully most have chosen to do so on the course. The highlight of the week is undoubtably the HSBC World Matchplay from Wentworth, where Tiger Woods bids for a seventh consecutive tournament victory, while Ernie Els aims for his seventh win in that particular event.
Those two golfing gods can't both reach the final as the draw has come out extremely lop-sided. As well as Tiger and Ernie, the bottom half includes the new world no.2 and weekend winner Jim Furyk, home favourite Luke Donald, course specialist Angel Cabrera and world-class Tim Clark. Clearly reaching the final from this half will be no cakewalk for Woods as any of those six are realistic finalists. Even the greatest can't win every week, and this draw represents a great chance to lay Tiger at a very skinny 6/4. I find it hard to envisage how a running accumulator on each match would yield less than that price, but also think he will enjoy no significant advantage on the claustrophobic West Course.
Clearly the best betting strategy here is to focus on the immeasurably easier top-half of the draw. The top players here are Retief Goosen and ADAM SCOTT. Goose has a very indifferent record at Wentworth in both strokeplay and matchplay so, especially as recent form has been below par, is readily opposed. His first-round opponent Paul Casey will be a tough enough nut to crack before he reaches the big guns. Alternatively, Scott comes here in peak form, and has a far more straightforward first-round opponent in Mike Weir. In the States, Scott to beat Weir would be far from obvious, but the Canadian's record in this event is poor. Coming straight off a win in Singapore, he looks very much the one to beat in this half of the draw.
Without doubt, the weakest quarter is the top one. David Howell is the shortest price but he too remains one very much to oppose in my book. Despite nearly winning in Germany a fortnight ago, his driving was all over the place again. That will be severely penalised here, especially against first-round opponent Colin Montgomerie who has always claimed to feel more confident at Wentworth than any other venue. But the best value lies in backing both of their potential second round opponents. The winner will play either defending champ MICHAEL CAMPBELL or SIMON KHAN. Cambo, a course specialist, starts heavy favourite for that match and is expected to win before putting up a stout defence, but Khan should also be backed at simply the wrong each-way odds. Priced at 125/1 to win the event, Khan's place odds are 62.5/1, when the accumulative odds on winning the necessary three matches is no more than 30/1. Hopefully by backing those three in the top-half, a situation will arise where we are either guaranteed a finalist, or finding the required saver is easy.
The Madrid Open looks the biggest conundrum of the week as far as betting is concerned. The market is headed by Ryder Cuppers Padraig Harrington, Darren Clarke and Jose-Maria Olazabal. It would take a brave man to be expecting 100% concentration on the task in hand from any of them, and the two Irishmen are hardly prolific anyway. I could see an argument for backing a determined Thomas Bjorn, anxious to make a fool out of Ian Woosnam after being left out of the Ryder Cup side. But, for me, his ridiculous outburst against the captain just confirmed that his temperament leaves a lot to be desired, and makes him a nightmare for punters.
With doubts surrounding the top-4, there might be a smidgeon of value around on some of the players who didn't miss Ryder Cup qualification by a mile. The three I like are IAN POULTER, NICLAS FASTH and ANTONY WALL. Poulter isn't huge at 20/1, but he is long overdue a win and has been playing consistently well for months. His attacking game is expected to suit the course perfectly.
Fasth is the best value for me. He is quite a regular winner considering his moderate place in the world rankings, especially in this part of the world. Niclas' last two starts in Spain have yielded a win in the national Open and seventh place in the prestigious Volvo Masters. As for Wall, he's been playing consistently well without winning all summer. Sooner or later things are going to drop his way as long as he continues the good form, and a second win is surely around the corner.
Its a good job Tiger has opted for Wentworth rather than the 84 Lumber Classic of Pennsylvania because he would have probably ended it as a betting spectacle very quickly. There is a marked advantage to the longer hitters, who can really open their shoulders on this course. Last year's winner Jason Gore fitted the profile perfectly with his huge-hitting, attacking game. In 2004, VIJAY SINGH won comfortably and must come right into calculations again with Ryder Cuppers David Toms and Chris Dimarco the only players from the world's top-30 in opposition. In the last event where big-hitters had an advantage, the Deutsche Bank a fortnight ago, Singh lost nothing in defeat to the unbeatable Woods. Last week's effort was only moderate, but I never thought he was suited by Hamilton. At the same price with less opposition and much more suitable conditions he must be included in the staking plan.
My other four selections all fit the profile of a Lumber winner. RORY SABBATINI, RYAN MOORE, CAMILIO VILLEGAS and JB HOLMES can all hit the ball a country mile when they want to. Sabbatini's early-season form took a bit of a dive but 5th place at the weekend confirms he's back in form and should be raring to go on a course where he's made the top-10 previously. Villegas was tied with Sabbatini at Hamilton, the latest top effort in a fine first season on tour. I'm sticking with the Colombian until he delivers, as I think he's a good a prospect as there is on tour.
Moore is another top prospect enjoying a fine first year. Prior to missing the cut in Canada, he had notched two consecutive top-12 finishes, most notably after a slow start at the USPGA. Moore is another one worth persisting with at attractive odds on suitable golf courses until he wins. Finally, Holmes is the biggest price of the lot despite already winning on Tour in spectacular style. Since that breakthrough Scottsdale win results have been mixed, but Holmes hasn't disgraced himself and has the length to turn this course into a pitch and putt affair.
Good Luck!
HSBC WORLD MATCHPLAY
LAY TIGER WOODS 10pts @ 2.6 (BETFAIR)
4pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 12/1 (BET365, TOTE, SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 22/1 (SPORTING ODDS, 25/1 EXPEKT)
0.5pts ew SIMON KHAN @ 125/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
MADRID OPEN
2pts ew IAN POULTER @ 20/1 (LADBROKES, STAN JAMES)
2pts ew NICLAS FASTH @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew ANTONY WALL @ 40/1 (BLUESQ, SKYBET)
84 LUMBER CLASSIC OF PENNSYLLVANIA
5pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 7/1 (LADBROKES, BETFAIR)
1pt ew RORY SABBATINI @ 40/1 (BLUESQ, LADBROKES, CORALS, HILLS)
1pt ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 50/1 (BETFRED, LADBROKES, CORALS, HILLS)
1pt ew RYAN MOORE @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 66/1 CORALS)
0.5pts ew JB HOLMES @ 100/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-104.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
Those two golfing gods can't both reach the final as the draw has come out extremely lop-sided. As well as Tiger and Ernie, the bottom half includes the new world no.2 and weekend winner Jim Furyk, home favourite Luke Donald, course specialist Angel Cabrera and world-class Tim Clark. Clearly reaching the final from this half will be no cakewalk for Woods as any of those six are realistic finalists. Even the greatest can't win every week, and this draw represents a great chance to lay Tiger at a very skinny 6/4. I find it hard to envisage how a running accumulator on each match would yield less than that price, but also think he will enjoy no significant advantage on the claustrophobic West Course.
Clearly the best betting strategy here is to focus on the immeasurably easier top-half of the draw. The top players here are Retief Goosen and ADAM SCOTT. Goose has a very indifferent record at Wentworth in both strokeplay and matchplay so, especially as recent form has been below par, is readily opposed. His first-round opponent Paul Casey will be a tough enough nut to crack before he reaches the big guns. Alternatively, Scott comes here in peak form, and has a far more straightforward first-round opponent in Mike Weir. In the States, Scott to beat Weir would be far from obvious, but the Canadian's record in this event is poor. Coming straight off a win in Singapore, he looks very much the one to beat in this half of the draw.
Without doubt, the weakest quarter is the top one. David Howell is the shortest price but he too remains one very much to oppose in my book. Despite nearly winning in Germany a fortnight ago, his driving was all over the place again. That will be severely penalised here, especially against first-round opponent Colin Montgomerie who has always claimed to feel more confident at Wentworth than any other venue. But the best value lies in backing both of their potential second round opponents. The winner will play either defending champ MICHAEL CAMPBELL or SIMON KHAN. Cambo, a course specialist, starts heavy favourite for that match and is expected to win before putting up a stout defence, but Khan should also be backed at simply the wrong each-way odds. Priced at 125/1 to win the event, Khan's place odds are 62.5/1, when the accumulative odds on winning the necessary three matches is no more than 30/1. Hopefully by backing those three in the top-half, a situation will arise where we are either guaranteed a finalist, or finding the required saver is easy.
The Madrid Open looks the biggest conundrum of the week as far as betting is concerned. The market is headed by Ryder Cuppers Padraig Harrington, Darren Clarke and Jose-Maria Olazabal. It would take a brave man to be expecting 100% concentration on the task in hand from any of them, and the two Irishmen are hardly prolific anyway. I could see an argument for backing a determined Thomas Bjorn, anxious to make a fool out of Ian Woosnam after being left out of the Ryder Cup side. But, for me, his ridiculous outburst against the captain just confirmed that his temperament leaves a lot to be desired, and makes him a nightmare for punters.
With doubts surrounding the top-4, there might be a smidgeon of value around on some of the players who didn't miss Ryder Cup qualification by a mile. The three I like are IAN POULTER, NICLAS FASTH and ANTONY WALL. Poulter isn't huge at 20/1, but he is long overdue a win and has been playing consistently well for months. His attacking game is expected to suit the course perfectly.
Fasth is the best value for me. He is quite a regular winner considering his moderate place in the world rankings, especially in this part of the world. Niclas' last two starts in Spain have yielded a win in the national Open and seventh place in the prestigious Volvo Masters. As for Wall, he's been playing consistently well without winning all summer. Sooner or later things are going to drop his way as long as he continues the good form, and a second win is surely around the corner.
Its a good job Tiger has opted for Wentworth rather than the 84 Lumber Classic of Pennsylvania because he would have probably ended it as a betting spectacle very quickly. There is a marked advantage to the longer hitters, who can really open their shoulders on this course. Last year's winner Jason Gore fitted the profile perfectly with his huge-hitting, attacking game. In 2004, VIJAY SINGH won comfortably and must come right into calculations again with Ryder Cuppers David Toms and Chris Dimarco the only players from the world's top-30 in opposition. In the last event where big-hitters had an advantage, the Deutsche Bank a fortnight ago, Singh lost nothing in defeat to the unbeatable Woods. Last week's effort was only moderate, but I never thought he was suited by Hamilton. At the same price with less opposition and much more suitable conditions he must be included in the staking plan.
My other four selections all fit the profile of a Lumber winner. RORY SABBATINI, RYAN MOORE, CAMILIO VILLEGAS and JB HOLMES can all hit the ball a country mile when they want to. Sabbatini's early-season form took a bit of a dive but 5th place at the weekend confirms he's back in form and should be raring to go on a course where he's made the top-10 previously. Villegas was tied with Sabbatini at Hamilton, the latest top effort in a fine first season on tour. I'm sticking with the Colombian until he delivers, as I think he's a good a prospect as there is on tour.
Moore is another top prospect enjoying a fine first year. Prior to missing the cut in Canada, he had notched two consecutive top-12 finishes, most notably after a slow start at the USPGA. Moore is another one worth persisting with at attractive odds on suitable golf courses until he wins. Finally, Holmes is the biggest price of the lot despite already winning on Tour in spectacular style. Since that breakthrough Scottsdale win results have been mixed, but Holmes hasn't disgraced himself and has the length to turn this course into a pitch and putt affair.
Good Luck!
HSBC WORLD MATCHPLAY
LAY TIGER WOODS 10pts @ 2.6 (BETFAIR)
4pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 12/1 (BET365, TOTE, SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 22/1 (SPORTING ODDS, 25/1 EXPEKT)
0.5pts ew SIMON KHAN @ 125/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
MADRID OPEN
2pts ew IAN POULTER @ 20/1 (LADBROKES, STAN JAMES)
2pts ew NICLAS FASTH @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew ANTONY WALL @ 40/1 (BLUESQ, SKYBET)
84 LUMBER CLASSIC OF PENNSYLLVANIA
5pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 7/1 (LADBROKES, BETFAIR)
1pt ew RORY SABBATINI @ 40/1 (BLUESQ, LADBROKES, CORALS, HILLS)
1pt ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 50/1 (BETFRED, LADBROKES, CORALS, HILLS)
1pt ew RYAN MOORE @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 66/1 CORALS)
0.5pts ew JB HOLMES @ 100/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-104.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 3:14 PM
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