Loch Lomond Betting Preview
Arguably the best fortnight of the golfing season starts on Thursday with the annual precurser to next week's Open Championship, the Scottish Open at Loch Lomond. A key point to remember is that these two events are very different in nature. Whereas next week's jamboree is the premier links tournament of the year, Loch Lomond is target golf in a picturesque setting. So don't assume for a moment that this week's winner must automatically have a great chance at Hoylake. In fact no Scottish Open winner has ever followed up in the big one.
There's a genuinely world class field on show in Scotland, despite regular visitor Phil Mickelson's sensible decision to practice at Hoylake instead. Former champions Ernie Els and Retief Goosen have plenty to prove on the back of disappointing seasons and are available at 14/1 for the first time in years on a course where they have both excelled. Goosen particularly looks worth opposing after a very poor weekend in Ireland. As for Ernie, rumours of his demise are surely premature and the Big Easy is talking a good game on his website. Els reckons he's been putting in the hours practising for this fortnight and thinks its coming together. At current odds he is very much in my thoughts for Hoylake, but I want to see the evidence first. Loch Lomond normally turns into a putting contest, and this was the area of Ernie's game giving the greatest concern, so he is probably best watched.
Defending champion Tim Clark loves this place and has a very obvious chance after another fast-finish on Sunday, but his great course record is more than factored into the price. Another deterrant to backing the consistent South African is the fact that I just cannot seem to call this guy right! Clark's success here is due in no small part to his ability to hit greens in regulations consistently. On a course where every hole is a birdie chance provided you can keep the ball in play, metronomic accuracy with driver and irons is essential, far more important than length unless the course become soaked. With a decent weather forecast, the relatively short-hitting LUKE DONALD must have a cracking chance as he has a very similar, if slightly superior profile to Clark. On his first visit to Loch Lomond last year, Donald hit 68/67/67/67 to finish 5th and its hard to see how he could ever run up a big score here. Since winning the Honda Classic in March, Luke has retained good form with six top-25 finishes from 9 starts, including three top-10s. 8 of those starts came on the US Tour, and we have seen previously just how dangerous Donald can be when back on the slightly lower grade European Tour.
I'm also surprised to see DAVID HOWELL as big as 18/1 bearing in mind his tremendous progress this season. The Order of Merit leader hinted that he was about to enter the biggest league of all when bang in contention at the US Open for the first two days. It was no surprise to see him struggle under the pressure of his first really serious attempt at a Major, but make no mistake he has arrived amongst the game's elite. His awesome performance when running away with the BMW Championship at Wentworth was followed by more good form in the States. Ignore the missed cut in France a fortnight ago, by his own admission Howell was knackered. This week he will be fresh and well prepared for another tilt at a course he's twice finished in the top-3 previously. His putting stroke in particular should be a massive asset here.
Another one who likes Loch Lomond is IAN POULTER, having finished top-10 for the last three years. Its interesting to see Poulter right up near the top of the driving accuracy stats on the US Tour this season, as I'd never really considered that to be a strength. The fact that Ian hasn't won for a couple of seasons shows just how competitive golf is and how a top player can endure an inexplicable barren run. I'm adamant Poulter is a winner waiting to happen during arguably his most consistent season to date. There's certainly nothing wrong with his temperament, which looked as good as anyone when winning six European Tour titles from 2000 - 2004. After five top-10s in 2006, including 3rd on his penultimate outing in France, a change of luck is surely due.
Unsurprisingly a week before the British Open the field for the PGA Tour event, the JDR Classic, is very weak. This event has produced 16 first time winners in 33 years and looks once again to be a complete lottery. As far as betting is concerned, stakes should be kept to an absolute minimum, but as the event is televised its still worth having a small punt to make a dull event a bit more interesting.
A couple of my favourites head the market, Zach Johnson and Bo Van Pelt. Seeing as they owe me plenty from the last season or two, this will probably be the week they finally oblige but I see them as characters worth chancing at big odds, not when they are less than 25/1. This is especially the case here because they've never done anything of note on this course. Of the shorter prices, the best bet looks rejuvenated STEVE STRICKER. A class act in his heyday, Stricker has come back brilliantly in recent weeks to regain his card after a long spell suffering from injury and severe loss of form. Stricker's made his last six cuts, including three top-6 finishes, the highlight of which was of course the US Open where he played an absolute blinder. This is a course he likes, having finished 4th in 2004 when in nowhere near the form he is now.
I've long been a fan of JUSTIN ROSE, who remains an unfulfilled talent. He really looked the business when winning four times on the European Tour back in 2002, but the death of his father and mentor set him back before he took the brave, but possibly unwise step of going straight to the US Tour. I reckon he'll open his account over there at some stage and as he's not in bad form, a low grade event like this could be the opportunity he's been waiting for.
Finally, I'm having a speculative punt on another unfulfilled talent, PAT PEREZ. The case for 80/1 chance Perez lies largely on two top-12 finishes in 2002 and 2003 on this course. He played well at last week's Western Open for three rounds before a poor Sunday, but has enough about him to get competitive in this company.
Good Luck!
SCOTTISH OPEN
3pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 16/1 (BET DIRECT, TOTE)
3pts ew DAVID HOWELL @ 18/1 (SKYBET, CORAL)
2pts ew IAN POULTER @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
JOHN DEERE RUN CLASSIC
1pt ew STEVE STRICKER @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 50/1 (BETFRED, CORAL, BLUESQ, HILLS)
0.5pts ew PAT PEREZ @ 66/1 (GENERAL, 80/1 WITH BLUESQ)
2006 STATS: (-52pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
There's a genuinely world class field on show in Scotland, despite regular visitor Phil Mickelson's sensible decision to practice at Hoylake instead. Former champions Ernie Els and Retief Goosen have plenty to prove on the back of disappointing seasons and are available at 14/1 for the first time in years on a course where they have both excelled. Goosen particularly looks worth opposing after a very poor weekend in Ireland. As for Ernie, rumours of his demise are surely premature and the Big Easy is talking a good game on his website. Els reckons he's been putting in the hours practising for this fortnight and thinks its coming together. At current odds he is very much in my thoughts for Hoylake, but I want to see the evidence first. Loch Lomond normally turns into a putting contest, and this was the area of Ernie's game giving the greatest concern, so he is probably best watched.
Defending champion Tim Clark loves this place and has a very obvious chance after another fast-finish on Sunday, but his great course record is more than factored into the price. Another deterrant to backing the consistent South African is the fact that I just cannot seem to call this guy right! Clark's success here is due in no small part to his ability to hit greens in regulations consistently. On a course where every hole is a birdie chance provided you can keep the ball in play, metronomic accuracy with driver and irons is essential, far more important than length unless the course become soaked. With a decent weather forecast, the relatively short-hitting LUKE DONALD must have a cracking chance as he has a very similar, if slightly superior profile to Clark. On his first visit to Loch Lomond last year, Donald hit 68/67/67/67 to finish 5th and its hard to see how he could ever run up a big score here. Since winning the Honda Classic in March, Luke has retained good form with six top-25 finishes from 9 starts, including three top-10s. 8 of those starts came on the US Tour, and we have seen previously just how dangerous Donald can be when back on the slightly lower grade European Tour.
I'm also surprised to see DAVID HOWELL as big as 18/1 bearing in mind his tremendous progress this season. The Order of Merit leader hinted that he was about to enter the biggest league of all when bang in contention at the US Open for the first two days. It was no surprise to see him struggle under the pressure of his first really serious attempt at a Major, but make no mistake he has arrived amongst the game's elite. His awesome performance when running away with the BMW Championship at Wentworth was followed by more good form in the States. Ignore the missed cut in France a fortnight ago, by his own admission Howell was knackered. This week he will be fresh and well prepared for another tilt at a course he's twice finished in the top-3 previously. His putting stroke in particular should be a massive asset here.
Another one who likes Loch Lomond is IAN POULTER, having finished top-10 for the last three years. Its interesting to see Poulter right up near the top of the driving accuracy stats on the US Tour this season, as I'd never really considered that to be a strength. The fact that Ian hasn't won for a couple of seasons shows just how competitive golf is and how a top player can endure an inexplicable barren run. I'm adamant Poulter is a winner waiting to happen during arguably his most consistent season to date. There's certainly nothing wrong with his temperament, which looked as good as anyone when winning six European Tour titles from 2000 - 2004. After five top-10s in 2006, including 3rd on his penultimate outing in France, a change of luck is surely due.
Unsurprisingly a week before the British Open the field for the PGA Tour event, the JDR Classic, is very weak. This event has produced 16 first time winners in 33 years and looks once again to be a complete lottery. As far as betting is concerned, stakes should be kept to an absolute minimum, but as the event is televised its still worth having a small punt to make a dull event a bit more interesting.
A couple of my favourites head the market, Zach Johnson and Bo Van Pelt. Seeing as they owe me plenty from the last season or two, this will probably be the week they finally oblige but I see them as characters worth chancing at big odds, not when they are less than 25/1. This is especially the case here because they've never done anything of note on this course. Of the shorter prices, the best bet looks rejuvenated STEVE STRICKER. A class act in his heyday, Stricker has come back brilliantly in recent weeks to regain his card after a long spell suffering from injury and severe loss of form. Stricker's made his last six cuts, including three top-6 finishes, the highlight of which was of course the US Open where he played an absolute blinder. This is a course he likes, having finished 4th in 2004 when in nowhere near the form he is now.
I've long been a fan of JUSTIN ROSE, who remains an unfulfilled talent. He really looked the business when winning four times on the European Tour back in 2002, but the death of his father and mentor set him back before he took the brave, but possibly unwise step of going straight to the US Tour. I reckon he'll open his account over there at some stage and as he's not in bad form, a low grade event like this could be the opportunity he's been waiting for.
Finally, I'm having a speculative punt on another unfulfilled talent, PAT PEREZ. The case for 80/1 chance Perez lies largely on two top-12 finishes in 2002 and 2003 on this course. He played well at last week's Western Open for three rounds before a poor Sunday, but has enough about him to get competitive in this company.
Good Luck!
SCOTTISH OPEN
3pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 16/1 (BET DIRECT, TOTE)
3pts ew DAVID HOWELL @ 18/1 (SKYBET, CORAL)
2pts ew IAN POULTER @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
JOHN DEERE RUN CLASSIC
1pt ew STEVE STRICKER @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 50/1 (BETFRED, CORAL, BLUESQ, HILLS)
0.5pts ew PAT PEREZ @ 66/1 (GENERAL, 80/1 WITH BLUESQ)
2006 STATS: (-52pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 3:22 PM
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