Betting preview for Deutsche Bank and US Bank Championship
There's always a fear after a Major championship that backing players who were in contention can be a risky business, as it must be hard to motivate oneself in the lesser event. Thankfully the only players in contention at Hoylake to re-appear this week are Sergio Garcia, Angel Cabrera and Andres Romero - neither of whom could hardly be described as being in the thick of it.
The European event in Germany very much takes centre stage with one of the best fields of the year. With the understandable exception of Darren Clarke and late withdrawal Colin Montgomerie, pretty much everyone who is anyone in European golf is playing, along with world-class South Africans Retief Goosen and Tim Clark. The course, Gut Kaden, has a history of separating the men from the boys so I'm expecting a leaderboard packed with stars. Several look well worth taking on. I can't back Goosen, in spite of a good course record, because he was unconvincing again at the Open. Similarly, Sergio Garcia may have produced his best for a long time on a tailor-made course but is unlikely to hole enough birdie putts here. David Howell is struggling, Henrik Stenson has looked off the pace for months now and defending champ Niclas Fasth has plenty to prove after a poor month.
The standout selection for me is a man who missed the cut at Hoylake, PADRAIG HARRINGTON. I had fancied Pod long-term for the Open, but changed my mind at the last as I don't think the benign conditions favoured him. Not for the first time anyway, Harrington spectacularly failed to deliver when carrying massive expectations into a Major. Having benefitted from a weekend rest, I expect him to bounce back here. A winner at Gut Kaden in 2003, last year's lacklustre effort can be ignored as it was just a week after the death of his father. Prior to the Open Harrington had looked a winner in waiting with three top-5s from four starts, so this looks a perfect opportunity at quite reasonable odds of 16/1.
All of my other three selections made the cut at Hoylake, but will have been disappointed with their efforts. Firstly, LUKE DONALD showed again that he doesn't have the game for links golf just yet. This sort of parkland test is far more to his liking, and I expect a swift return to his ultra-consistent PGA Tour form. Gut Kaden used to be a big-hitters paradise, but course changes mean that accuracy too is essential. That brings Donald into it for me, as his one obvious weakness is length off the tee, but greens in regulation are more likely to be important nowadays.
Despite this, those who hit it long and straight should score very well. Taking this into consideration, I've got to overlook PAUL CASEY's abysmal weekend. When you're holding an ante-post voucher for the Order of Merit, it is extremely disheartening to see a player look so disinterested when there is plenty of Euros still up for grabs. He's clearly another Brit who has much to learn about links, but again Gut Kaden is a completely different proposition. He was 5th to Harrington here in 2003, and again you can overlook last year's failures as he was badly out of form at the time. If Casey returns to the form he was showing up until the Open, its very hard to imagine him out of the top-10.
Finally in Europe, I'm straying back into the market to back a player who must owe me a small fortune, LEE WESTWOOD. A dual winner at Gut Kaden, Westwood must fancy his chances of continuing his recent improved form. 4th in Ireland earlier in the month, his last round of 69 in tough scoring conditions at Hoylake was excellent and could act as the perfect warm-up.
The PGA Tour moves on to its regular fixture at Brown Deer Park, home of the US Bank Championship. While the recent roll-call of winners doesn't suggest picking the winner will be easy, it does suggest experience is the order of the day with Ben Crane and Shigeki Maruyama the only 'young' winners in the last decade. The course specialist par excellence and market leader is KENNY PERRY. Because he hasn't quite hit the heights of recent years since a back operation, Perry is as big as 16/1 to win a title he last won in 2003. Bearing in mind that he has not finished lower than 9th on his last six visits and was placed on four of those, 16/1 is a very big each-way price. And I'm not deterred by the injury and inferior 2006 form. 2 of his last 4 US starts have resulted in top-15 finishes. Such is the competitive nature of the US Tour, you can't finish that high playing too far below your best.
Otherwise, this looks a great opportunity for a couple of players still looking for that elusive first Tour win. I've stated the case for BO VAN PELT on several occasions. Its getting a bit frustrating waiting for the breakthrough, but Bo deserves credit for his consistency. Missing the cut at Hoylake was Van Pelt's first since the opening event of the year. He must have every chance on a course where he has two consecutive top-15 finishes against a field notably lacking the class of most other weeks. Asides the Majors, four of BRETT QUIGLEY's last six PGA Tour starts have yielded top-10 finishes which makes 50/1 look absolutely huge. The case for Quigley is even further enhanced when you look at his Brown Deer Park record - top-4 in two of the last three runnings of this event.
Finally, someone who fits the bill as a typical Brown Deer Park experienced winner is JERRY KELLY. In his native Wisconsin, consistent Kelly is always a player to be reckoned with. In his last 10 outings on this course, Kelly has an impressive six top-15 finishes including a second and third place. After a solid Open and a reasonably consistent season, I'll be surprised if he's too far away come Sunday.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
DEUTSCHE BANK
2.5pts ew PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 18/1 WITH EXPEKT)
2.5pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 40/1 (BET DIRECT, BETFRED)
US BANK CHAMPIONSHIP
2.5pts ew KENNY PERRY @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew BO VAN PELT @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew BRETT QUIGLEY @ 50/1 (365, LADBROKES, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew JERRY KELLY @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-64.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
The European event in Germany very much takes centre stage with one of the best fields of the year. With the understandable exception of Darren Clarke and late withdrawal Colin Montgomerie, pretty much everyone who is anyone in European golf is playing, along with world-class South Africans Retief Goosen and Tim Clark. The course, Gut Kaden, has a history of separating the men from the boys so I'm expecting a leaderboard packed with stars. Several look well worth taking on. I can't back Goosen, in spite of a good course record, because he was unconvincing again at the Open. Similarly, Sergio Garcia may have produced his best for a long time on a tailor-made course but is unlikely to hole enough birdie putts here. David Howell is struggling, Henrik Stenson has looked off the pace for months now and defending champ Niclas Fasth has plenty to prove after a poor month.
The standout selection for me is a man who missed the cut at Hoylake, PADRAIG HARRINGTON. I had fancied Pod long-term for the Open, but changed my mind at the last as I don't think the benign conditions favoured him. Not for the first time anyway, Harrington spectacularly failed to deliver when carrying massive expectations into a Major. Having benefitted from a weekend rest, I expect him to bounce back here. A winner at Gut Kaden in 2003, last year's lacklustre effort can be ignored as it was just a week after the death of his father. Prior to the Open Harrington had looked a winner in waiting with three top-5s from four starts, so this looks a perfect opportunity at quite reasonable odds of 16/1.
All of my other three selections made the cut at Hoylake, but will have been disappointed with their efforts. Firstly, LUKE DONALD showed again that he doesn't have the game for links golf just yet. This sort of parkland test is far more to his liking, and I expect a swift return to his ultra-consistent PGA Tour form. Gut Kaden used to be a big-hitters paradise, but course changes mean that accuracy too is essential. That brings Donald into it for me, as his one obvious weakness is length off the tee, but greens in regulation are more likely to be important nowadays.
Despite this, those who hit it long and straight should score very well. Taking this into consideration, I've got to overlook PAUL CASEY's abysmal weekend. When you're holding an ante-post voucher for the Order of Merit, it is extremely disheartening to see a player look so disinterested when there is plenty of Euros still up for grabs. He's clearly another Brit who has much to learn about links, but again Gut Kaden is a completely different proposition. He was 5th to Harrington here in 2003, and again you can overlook last year's failures as he was badly out of form at the time. If Casey returns to the form he was showing up until the Open, its very hard to imagine him out of the top-10.
Finally in Europe, I'm straying back into the market to back a player who must owe me a small fortune, LEE WESTWOOD. A dual winner at Gut Kaden, Westwood must fancy his chances of continuing his recent improved form. 4th in Ireland earlier in the month, his last round of 69 in tough scoring conditions at Hoylake was excellent and could act as the perfect warm-up.
The PGA Tour moves on to its regular fixture at Brown Deer Park, home of the US Bank Championship. While the recent roll-call of winners doesn't suggest picking the winner will be easy, it does suggest experience is the order of the day with Ben Crane and Shigeki Maruyama the only 'young' winners in the last decade. The course specialist par excellence and market leader is KENNY PERRY. Because he hasn't quite hit the heights of recent years since a back operation, Perry is as big as 16/1 to win a title he last won in 2003. Bearing in mind that he has not finished lower than 9th on his last six visits and was placed on four of those, 16/1 is a very big each-way price. And I'm not deterred by the injury and inferior 2006 form. 2 of his last 4 US starts have resulted in top-15 finishes. Such is the competitive nature of the US Tour, you can't finish that high playing too far below your best.
Otherwise, this looks a great opportunity for a couple of players still looking for that elusive first Tour win. I've stated the case for BO VAN PELT on several occasions. Its getting a bit frustrating waiting for the breakthrough, but Bo deserves credit for his consistency. Missing the cut at Hoylake was Van Pelt's first since the opening event of the year. He must have every chance on a course where he has two consecutive top-15 finishes against a field notably lacking the class of most other weeks. Asides the Majors, four of BRETT QUIGLEY's last six PGA Tour starts have yielded top-10 finishes which makes 50/1 look absolutely huge. The case for Quigley is even further enhanced when you look at his Brown Deer Park record - top-4 in two of the last three runnings of this event.
Finally, someone who fits the bill as a typical Brown Deer Park experienced winner is JERRY KELLY. In his native Wisconsin, consistent Kelly is always a player to be reckoned with. In his last 10 outings on this course, Kelly has an impressive six top-15 finishes including a second and third place. After a solid Open and a reasonably consistent season, I'll be surprised if he's too far away come Sunday.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
DEUTSCHE BANK
2.5pts ew PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 18/1 WITH EXPEKT)
2.5pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 40/1 (BET DIRECT, BETFRED)
US BANK CHAMPIONSHIP
2.5pts ew KENNY PERRY @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew BO VAN PELT @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew BRETT QUIGLEY @ 50/1 (365, LADBROKES, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew JERRY KELLY @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-64.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 2:45 PM
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