British Open Preview
As you can no doubt imagine, finding the winner of the Open Championship is something I spend months pondering, but I have to say the 2006 renewal is as wide-open and tough to call as I've ever seen. As well as looking for all the usual necessary credentials in an Open winner- good links record, ability to play in the wind, good short game - we also have to decipher the exact nature of the Hoylake course. Unlike every other Open in living memory, we have absolutely no course form to work from as it was last held there in 1967. Surprisingly, despite all the equipment advances in the intervening period, Hoylake will only play a couple of hundred yards longer. Graeme McDowell gave a lengthy radio interview and described the requirements he believed were necessary. McDowell, not a forlorn trade at a huge price himself by any means, said he felt it was the type of course where the best players would rise to the top of the leaderboard, and expected to see an all-star top-10. He said it was a positional course, with accuracy from the tee to dry, narrow fairways essential to set up the best angle and avoid the penal rough and bunkers. Wind is the course's main defence, so with the weather forecast very good I expect we'll see some very low scores this week.
Matters are complicated further by the fact that all of the big-5 have question marks surrounding them. Despite only 2 outings since the Masters, Tiger Woods showed he is in decent enough form at the Western Open a fortnight ago, finishing 2nd after a poor start. But Cog Hill, always one of his favourite courses, has little in common with Hoylake and Woods' open record suggests he is very poor value. Asides two facile wins at St Andrews, a course made for Tiger if ever there was one, he has never looked like winning an Open. Phil Mickelson may have blown the US Open last month but he comes into this as the leading player in many people's eyes. But his Open record is poor, finishing in the top-10 only once. Vijay Singh has improved on links courses over the years but this remains his worst Major and he could well struggle if the greens dry out. Retief Goosen looked a banker each-way selection 6 weeks ago but has lost his form since.
Of the other six in the world's top 10, Adam Scott has a shocking Open record, as does David Howell. Geoff Ogilvy was one of my long-term fancies for this when he was a 100/1 chance, but all of that has long gone with his US Open win and very, very few players win two Majors in succession. Sergio Garcia is interesting after four Open top-10s in five years, but can't be trusted until his putting consistently improves. So we're left with ERNIE ELS and JIM FURYK. Ernie has enough question marks of his own to answer, having failed to produce anywhere near his best since returning from injury just before Christmas. The consequence is that the greatest links player, and most consistent Open contender of the last decade is twice the price of recent years. I was quietly encouraged by Ernie's warm-up at Loch Lomond, his first event since taking a break after the US Open to prepare intensively for this. He improved after a slowish start in Scotland to finish in the top-10, ranking an impressive fourth for greens in regulation. He sounds confident and reckons Hoylake will suit. I've backed Els in some way or other for the Open pretty much every year since he turned pro, and have been rewarded over and again with one win, three second places, as well as four other top-10s. On many of those occasions, he came into the event below his best, so I'd be mad to abandon the strategy in this most open of Opens.
Furyk is more of a risky proposition, but the odds make the gamble worth it. Finishing 4th twice and then 10th from 1997 - 1999, Furyk looked a likely future Open winner but since then its all gone horribly wrong in this event. Only one cut has been made since, and even then he finished a disappointing 41st. Amongst those six failures, three can be excused as two were at the totally unsuitable St Andrews and once he was struggling with a wrist injury. 2006 though, has arguably been Furyk's best. A win at Wachovia is supplemented by four other top-4 finishes, all in the highest company on the PGA Tour. Most recently, he must have been devastated to miss out on a play-off for the US Open by missing from four feet on the last hole. The final factor that leads me to overlook those poor recent Opens is the fact that Hoylake simply must suit Furyk. He is as straight as anyone off the tee, among the very best iron players and a superb putter.
Though his 2006 form has so far been patchy, I can see MICHAEL CAMPBELL going very well here. 5th place at St Andrews last year was Cambo's best Open since nearly winning at the same venue in 1995, and confirmation that having won the US Open he no longer looked out of place amongst the elite. Since returning from his winter break, he has looked sublime on occasion but back to his infuriating worst on others. I like the fact that Campbell swerved one of his favourite events at Loch Lomond to prepare, and think 50/1 is a more than adequate estimation of his chances. And throughout his career, the Kiwi has shown his best form on tough, positional golf courses, especially on linksy courses in Australasia.
At the outstanding price of 100/1, MIKE WEIR looks to have been seriously under-rated. Weir is a great player of positional golf courses, combining accuracy with fine wedge play and a sublime short-game. Having chipped his way to the 2003 Masters, Weir looked a likely future Open winner when 9th at Troon in 2004. Unfortunately he lost all form for a year but has bounced back well this year without winning just yet. 6th at the US Open, his third good showing in that Major, proved he was back to his best and he also hasn't missed a cut since February. When winning the Masters, Amex and Tour Championships, the Canadian left-hander has proved himself well up to winning on the big stage. A Hoylake Open represents his best chance yet of proving it in this particular Major.
There are several outsiders fancied to go well, and its a dilemma choosing which market to play for each. Normally I like the top European and top Rest of the World player markets but with so many contenders in each, this looks less value than usual. So, first of all, I'm backing ROD PAMPLING for the outright at a juicy 125/1. Pampling first sprung to fame when leading the Open after day 1 at Carnoustie only to miss the cut. Since then, the consistent Australian has slowly grown in stature, and finally shed the bottler tag when winning the prestigious Bay Hill Invitational. He's followed up by missing only one cut, finished a creditable 16th at the Masters and registering three more top-10s, all in high-grade PGA Tour events. As an Aussie used to playing classic linksy courses like Royal Melbourne and Huntingdale, Pampling should relish the conditions of the Open Championship and looks top value in the outright, top-20 and spread markets.
This year's Open represents clearly the best chance of a first European Major success since Paul Lawrie at Carnoustie in 1999. I can never remember our continent having as much strength in depth as it has this year. Luke Donald was left out of the staking plan very reluctantly, and only because he has yet to achieve anything of note in an Open. He has played the course recently though, expressing great confidence afterwards and like Furyk, looks the ideal type for Hoylake. Padraig Harrington was a long range fancy for this, but at a best priced 22/1 is short enough. If the wind gets up though, I will certainly be backing Pod in-running. Jose-Maria Olazabal was another long-range fancy, but his form seems to have deserted him in the last few weeks. For the first time ever, I give Colin Montgomerie a decent chance of winning - as long as the wind stays away - though I suspect Winged Foot will go down as his last and best chance of landing that elusive Major. IAN POULTER certainly doesn't look a forlorn hope for a home winner on the basis of some excellent recent form and a personal best at last year's Open. I prefer to back the Luton man in speciality markets though. In particular, he looks an outstanding bet to beat Angel Cabrera over 72 holes with Bluesq and Paddy Power. Cabrera has only one good Open to his name at Carnoustie and looks totally unsuited to this short course.
With so many UK and Ireland players in contention, the best market in which to back MIGUEL ANGEL JIMINEZ is the "Top Continental Europe" market. There's only 20 competitors here, including Seve Ballesteros and four other complete no-hopers. The market is headed by Sergio Garcia and Jose-Maria Olazabal, whom I've expressed doubts about above. Jiminez meanwhile remains one of the most under-rated players in the world. Despite 13 European Tour wins and numerous good efforts in Majors, including top-20 in both the 2006 Masters and US Open, Jiminez always seems to be spoken of and priced up as a lower order player. It would come as no surprise if he were to land a Major before his career is out, and I think Hoylake will suit the Spaniard. I only left him out of the outright staking plan at the last minute, and then only because he looks outstanding value for this specific market.
My most lucrative Open market over the years has been variations of the top American or top American without Tiger markets. With little confidence surrounding Woods this year, bookies haven't bothered leaving him out so odds are inflated to compensate for the inclusion of Woods and Mickelson. As I said above, I'm not particularly positive about either of those and the only serious American contender I fancy is Jim Furyk. Therefore there must be a bit of value in picking out some big prices here for each-way betting. Yet again, FRED COUPLES has been massively underestimated at 50/1. Freddie is the best player never to win an Open in my view with nine top-10 finishes. 4th at St Andrews last year and 3rd at the Masters proved Couples is not finished at the highest level just yet. I can see this course favouring the experienced players, and as long as the weather stays good and the old back problems don't flare up, Couples shouldn't be too far away. With consistency from tee to green essential here, BART BRYANT and BO VAN PELT also look well worth a shout at 66/1. Van Pelt hasn't missed a cut since January and made both cuts in his previous Open appearances. Ultra-accurate Bryant too impressed on his Open debut last year when finishing 23rd, and also went well for a long way at Winged Foot before some final day disasters sent him back to 32nd. To repeat, if the wind doesn't blow too hard, players hitting greens in regulation are bound to score well here and both of these score very highly in that category. Finally, I must back JEFF MAGGERT in this market at 100/1. Having finally won a strokeplay event earlier this year after years of bottling, Maggert may well add to a mightily impressive Majors record. The fact is most Major courses require accuracy and consistency from tee to green as an essential, so people like Maggert keep popping up in the top-10. After countless high finishes in US Majors, Hoylake could present Maggert with his best opportunity of matching his only top-5 Open finish from 1996 at Lytham.
Skybet have opened a new market on a top-20 finish, which looks the perfect format to back some of the outsiders I fancy. As I've said, the Australians should be comfortable with the conditions, and as well as Pampling, I reckon RICHARD GREEN, BRETT RUMFORD, MATTHEW GOGGIN and JARROD LYLE all have a squeak of a high finish at Hoylake. NICK O'HERN is another Aussie who looks set for a high finish but as he is very short for the top-20 I prefer him as a spread proposition.
Finally, some more match bets. Last week's Scottish Open winner Johan Edfors is matched against rising PGA star CARL PETTERSSON. Despite Edfors miraculous progress, I expect him to struggle on his Open debut, especially just days after that memorable Loch Lomond triumph. And Angel Cabrera, who I mentioned above as a player likely to struggle, must be opposed with ultra consistent TIM CLARK. Clark is another ultra-accurate player bound to be suited by the course, but who has been overlooked here due to a poor Open record. He shouldn't have to finish too high to get the better of Cabrera though.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
OUTRIGHT - (PADDY POWER, BETFRED AND BLUESQ ALL GO 1/4 ODDS, 6 PLACES)
2.5pts ew ERNIE ELS @ 16/1 (18/1 SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew JIM FURYK @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew MIKE WEIR @ 100/1 (LADBROKES, STAN JAMES, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew ROD PAMPLING @ 125/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
TOP US PLAYER
1pt ew FRED COUPLES @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BART BRYANT @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BO VAN PELT @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JEFF MAGGERT @ 100/1 (CORAL, STAN JAMES)
TOP CONTINENTAL EUROPEAN
4pts ew MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ @ 14/1 (HILLS)
TOP 20 FINISH (ALL WITH SKYBET)
4pts ROD PAMPLING @ 10/3
3pts RICHARD GREEN @ 11/2
2pts BRETT RUMFORD @ 15/2
2pts MATTHEW GOGGIN @ 15/2
1.5pts JARROD LYLE @ 12/1
72-HOLE MATCH BETS
11pts IAN POULTER @ 10/11 (VS ANGEL CABRERA)
11pts TIM CLARK @ 10/11 (VS ANGEL CABRERA)
11pts CARL PETTERSSON @ 10/11 (VS JOHAN EDFORS) (VICTOR CHANDLER)
SPREADS
SELL NICK O'HERN FINISHING POSITION 2PTS @ 34 (SPREADFAIR)
SELL ROD PAMPLING FINISHING POSITION 2PTS @ 35 (SPREADFAIR)
2006 STATS: (-57pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
Matters are complicated further by the fact that all of the big-5 have question marks surrounding them. Despite only 2 outings since the Masters, Tiger Woods showed he is in decent enough form at the Western Open a fortnight ago, finishing 2nd after a poor start. But Cog Hill, always one of his favourite courses, has little in common with Hoylake and Woods' open record suggests he is very poor value. Asides two facile wins at St Andrews, a course made for Tiger if ever there was one, he has never looked like winning an Open. Phil Mickelson may have blown the US Open last month but he comes into this as the leading player in many people's eyes. But his Open record is poor, finishing in the top-10 only once. Vijay Singh has improved on links courses over the years but this remains his worst Major and he could well struggle if the greens dry out. Retief Goosen looked a banker each-way selection 6 weeks ago but has lost his form since.
Of the other six in the world's top 10, Adam Scott has a shocking Open record, as does David Howell. Geoff Ogilvy was one of my long-term fancies for this when he was a 100/1 chance, but all of that has long gone with his US Open win and very, very few players win two Majors in succession. Sergio Garcia is interesting after four Open top-10s in five years, but can't be trusted until his putting consistently improves. So we're left with ERNIE ELS and JIM FURYK. Ernie has enough question marks of his own to answer, having failed to produce anywhere near his best since returning from injury just before Christmas. The consequence is that the greatest links player, and most consistent Open contender of the last decade is twice the price of recent years. I was quietly encouraged by Ernie's warm-up at Loch Lomond, his first event since taking a break after the US Open to prepare intensively for this. He improved after a slowish start in Scotland to finish in the top-10, ranking an impressive fourth for greens in regulation. He sounds confident and reckons Hoylake will suit. I've backed Els in some way or other for the Open pretty much every year since he turned pro, and have been rewarded over and again with one win, three second places, as well as four other top-10s. On many of those occasions, he came into the event below his best, so I'd be mad to abandon the strategy in this most open of Opens.
Furyk is more of a risky proposition, but the odds make the gamble worth it. Finishing 4th twice and then 10th from 1997 - 1999, Furyk looked a likely future Open winner but since then its all gone horribly wrong in this event. Only one cut has been made since, and even then he finished a disappointing 41st. Amongst those six failures, three can be excused as two were at the totally unsuitable St Andrews and once he was struggling with a wrist injury. 2006 though, has arguably been Furyk's best. A win at Wachovia is supplemented by four other top-4 finishes, all in the highest company on the PGA Tour. Most recently, he must have been devastated to miss out on a play-off for the US Open by missing from four feet on the last hole. The final factor that leads me to overlook those poor recent Opens is the fact that Hoylake simply must suit Furyk. He is as straight as anyone off the tee, among the very best iron players and a superb putter.
Though his 2006 form has so far been patchy, I can see MICHAEL CAMPBELL going very well here. 5th place at St Andrews last year was Cambo's best Open since nearly winning at the same venue in 1995, and confirmation that having won the US Open he no longer looked out of place amongst the elite. Since returning from his winter break, he has looked sublime on occasion but back to his infuriating worst on others. I like the fact that Campbell swerved one of his favourite events at Loch Lomond to prepare, and think 50/1 is a more than adequate estimation of his chances. And throughout his career, the Kiwi has shown his best form on tough, positional golf courses, especially on linksy courses in Australasia.
At the outstanding price of 100/1, MIKE WEIR looks to have been seriously under-rated. Weir is a great player of positional golf courses, combining accuracy with fine wedge play and a sublime short-game. Having chipped his way to the 2003 Masters, Weir looked a likely future Open winner when 9th at Troon in 2004. Unfortunately he lost all form for a year but has bounced back well this year without winning just yet. 6th at the US Open, his third good showing in that Major, proved he was back to his best and he also hasn't missed a cut since February. When winning the Masters, Amex and Tour Championships, the Canadian left-hander has proved himself well up to winning on the big stage. A Hoylake Open represents his best chance yet of proving it in this particular Major.
There are several outsiders fancied to go well, and its a dilemma choosing which market to play for each. Normally I like the top European and top Rest of the World player markets but with so many contenders in each, this looks less value than usual. So, first of all, I'm backing ROD PAMPLING for the outright at a juicy 125/1. Pampling first sprung to fame when leading the Open after day 1 at Carnoustie only to miss the cut. Since then, the consistent Australian has slowly grown in stature, and finally shed the bottler tag when winning the prestigious Bay Hill Invitational. He's followed up by missing only one cut, finished a creditable 16th at the Masters and registering three more top-10s, all in high-grade PGA Tour events. As an Aussie used to playing classic linksy courses like Royal Melbourne and Huntingdale, Pampling should relish the conditions of the Open Championship and looks top value in the outright, top-20 and spread markets.
This year's Open represents clearly the best chance of a first European Major success since Paul Lawrie at Carnoustie in 1999. I can never remember our continent having as much strength in depth as it has this year. Luke Donald was left out of the staking plan very reluctantly, and only because he has yet to achieve anything of note in an Open. He has played the course recently though, expressing great confidence afterwards and like Furyk, looks the ideal type for Hoylake. Padraig Harrington was a long range fancy for this, but at a best priced 22/1 is short enough. If the wind gets up though, I will certainly be backing Pod in-running. Jose-Maria Olazabal was another long-range fancy, but his form seems to have deserted him in the last few weeks. For the first time ever, I give Colin Montgomerie a decent chance of winning - as long as the wind stays away - though I suspect Winged Foot will go down as his last and best chance of landing that elusive Major. IAN POULTER certainly doesn't look a forlorn hope for a home winner on the basis of some excellent recent form and a personal best at last year's Open. I prefer to back the Luton man in speciality markets though. In particular, he looks an outstanding bet to beat Angel Cabrera over 72 holes with Bluesq and Paddy Power. Cabrera has only one good Open to his name at Carnoustie and looks totally unsuited to this short course.
With so many UK and Ireland players in contention, the best market in which to back MIGUEL ANGEL JIMINEZ is the "Top Continental Europe" market. There's only 20 competitors here, including Seve Ballesteros and four other complete no-hopers. The market is headed by Sergio Garcia and Jose-Maria Olazabal, whom I've expressed doubts about above. Jiminez meanwhile remains one of the most under-rated players in the world. Despite 13 European Tour wins and numerous good efforts in Majors, including top-20 in both the 2006 Masters and US Open, Jiminez always seems to be spoken of and priced up as a lower order player. It would come as no surprise if he were to land a Major before his career is out, and I think Hoylake will suit the Spaniard. I only left him out of the outright staking plan at the last minute, and then only because he looks outstanding value for this specific market.
My most lucrative Open market over the years has been variations of the top American or top American without Tiger markets. With little confidence surrounding Woods this year, bookies haven't bothered leaving him out so odds are inflated to compensate for the inclusion of Woods and Mickelson. As I said above, I'm not particularly positive about either of those and the only serious American contender I fancy is Jim Furyk. Therefore there must be a bit of value in picking out some big prices here for each-way betting. Yet again, FRED COUPLES has been massively underestimated at 50/1. Freddie is the best player never to win an Open in my view with nine top-10 finishes. 4th at St Andrews last year and 3rd at the Masters proved Couples is not finished at the highest level just yet. I can see this course favouring the experienced players, and as long as the weather stays good and the old back problems don't flare up, Couples shouldn't be too far away. With consistency from tee to green essential here, BART BRYANT and BO VAN PELT also look well worth a shout at 66/1. Van Pelt hasn't missed a cut since January and made both cuts in his previous Open appearances. Ultra-accurate Bryant too impressed on his Open debut last year when finishing 23rd, and also went well for a long way at Winged Foot before some final day disasters sent him back to 32nd. To repeat, if the wind doesn't blow too hard, players hitting greens in regulation are bound to score well here and both of these score very highly in that category. Finally, I must back JEFF MAGGERT in this market at 100/1. Having finally won a strokeplay event earlier this year after years of bottling, Maggert may well add to a mightily impressive Majors record. The fact is most Major courses require accuracy and consistency from tee to green as an essential, so people like Maggert keep popping up in the top-10. After countless high finishes in US Majors, Hoylake could present Maggert with his best opportunity of matching his only top-5 Open finish from 1996 at Lytham.
Skybet have opened a new market on a top-20 finish, which looks the perfect format to back some of the outsiders I fancy. As I've said, the Australians should be comfortable with the conditions, and as well as Pampling, I reckon RICHARD GREEN, BRETT RUMFORD, MATTHEW GOGGIN and JARROD LYLE all have a squeak of a high finish at Hoylake. NICK O'HERN is another Aussie who looks set for a high finish but as he is very short for the top-20 I prefer him as a spread proposition.
Finally, some more match bets. Last week's Scottish Open winner Johan Edfors is matched against rising PGA star CARL PETTERSSON. Despite Edfors miraculous progress, I expect him to struggle on his Open debut, especially just days after that memorable Loch Lomond triumph. And Angel Cabrera, who I mentioned above as a player likely to struggle, must be opposed with ultra consistent TIM CLARK. Clark is another ultra-accurate player bound to be suited by the course, but who has been overlooked here due to a poor Open record. He shouldn't have to finish too high to get the better of Cabrera though.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
OUTRIGHT - (PADDY POWER, BETFRED AND BLUESQ ALL GO 1/4 ODDS, 6 PLACES)
2.5pts ew ERNIE ELS @ 16/1 (18/1 SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew JIM FURYK @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew MIKE WEIR @ 100/1 (LADBROKES, STAN JAMES, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew ROD PAMPLING @ 125/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
TOP US PLAYER
1pt ew FRED COUPLES @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BART BRYANT @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BO VAN PELT @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JEFF MAGGERT @ 100/1 (CORAL, STAN JAMES)
TOP CONTINENTAL EUROPEAN
4pts ew MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ @ 14/1 (HILLS)
TOP 20 FINISH (ALL WITH SKYBET)
4pts ROD PAMPLING @ 10/3
3pts RICHARD GREEN @ 11/2
2pts BRETT RUMFORD @ 15/2
2pts MATTHEW GOGGIN @ 15/2
1.5pts JARROD LYLE @ 12/1
72-HOLE MATCH BETS
11pts IAN POULTER @ 10/11 (VS ANGEL CABRERA)
11pts TIM CLARK @ 10/11 (VS ANGEL CABRERA)
11pts CARL PETTERSSON @ 10/11 (VS JOHAN EDFORS) (VICTOR CHANDLER)
SPREADS
SELL NICK O'HERN FINISHING POSITION 2PTS @ 34 (SPREADFAIR)
SELL ROD PAMPLING FINISHING POSITION 2PTS @ 35 (SPREADFAIR)
2006 STATS: (-57pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 1:08 PM
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