Hawkins the answer to snooker puzzle
After what has seemed like an eternal wait, at long last the first ranking tournament of the snooker season is upon us. The game is in such a terrible state, with very few sponsors interested, that there is considerable uncertainty about the motivation of many of the top players. Ronnie O'Sullivan was complaining again a few days ago about the lack of tournaments - there are only six ranking tournaments where once there was 15 - and suggested that his new career on the US Pool circuit would take precedence. Besides Ronnie, many of the top players seem more interested in developing their poker careers and can't be relied upon to be fully wound up for this week's Grand Prix, which carries few ranking points. The one star who should be prepared is Mark Williams, who must perform this year to rescue his place amongst the game'e elite top 16, but I'd want to see some evidence of his resurgence before parting with cash.
In the past, this tournament has been renowned for producing shocks. The top 16 players usually haven't played competitive snooker since the World Championships while the rest are match fit from a series of qualifying events. Without a doubt, many seeds will fall in the early stages so the sensible strategy must be to find plausible winners at big prices who are fancied to survive the first few rounds. The one that really stands out to me is BARRY HAWKINS at 100/1. The top half of the draw is dominated by World No 1 Ronnie and the player most likely to knock him off his perch, Stephen Maguire. My view is that Maguire is the man to beat this year but he could still be worth taking on this early in the year and I will never trust Ronnie again at short odds after his virtual nervous breakdown at Sheffield. Should these two get turned over, Hawkins looks as likely as anyone else in that half of the draw to reach the final. His first-round match against Tony Drago looks a shoe-in before potentially facing Peter Ebdon in Round 2. In recent years, Ebdon's form in early season best of nine matches has been nothing out of the ordinary whereas Hawkins looks the younger, hungrier player. In any case, there would be little to choose between the two on last year's form so I see no reason to warrant Hawkins' price tag.
Another contender at a big price in the top half could be PAUL HUNTER, in his first tournament back after cancer surgery. Paul is 50/1 to pull off what would be an extremely popular win, and though it is asking a hell of a lot, that price could look enormous should the draw open up for him. The Leeds man couldn't have been given an easier opening match against the limited Rory Mcleod and could trade at a much lower price just after that first match. Finally in the top half, have a tiny speculative punt on JAMIE COPE at 500/1. Though I've never had the pleasure of watching Cope play, many good judges speak very highly of him and Jamie's results in qualifying have been very impressive. Again, should he successfully negotiate a tough first round match against Joe Perry, only ordinary opposition would stand in the way of a good run.
The bottom half looks a lot tighter, with plenty of close matches in prospect. I'm going to break the habit of the lifetime here and recommend a trade on snooker legend STEPHEN HENDRY at 10/1. Hendry is normally the last player I'd back in a tournament like this, as his motivation and concentration are definitely suspect these days but I'm very confident that he will get through the early stages and trade at much, much shorter. The Scot has started the season well, playing well to reach the final of the Invitational Northern Ireland Classic in August and showing some nice form on the friendly Premier League circuit. Anything close to a reproduction of that form will surely be enough to get past Dominic Dale and Mark King and as other seeds fall, Hendry's price will definitely contract. However, should Hendry reach the last 8 I strongly recommend closing out this trade at shortish prices.
Similarly in the final quarter, JOHN HIGGINS looks a very reasonable trade at 16/1. For reasons that I can't fathom, the Wizard of Wishaw has developed a worrying tendency to lose concentration over the last few years despite apparently retaining all the ability that made him World Champion and the one to beat a few years ago. The only players who look capable of stopping him reaching the last 8 are Ian McCulloch and Ryan Day who, though dangerous, would start a match against Higgins as big outsiders. As with Hendry, if and when Higgins reaches the latter stages, he would be worth laying back at short prices.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
2pts ew BARRY HAWKINS @ 100/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER, UK BETTING)
0.25pts ew JAMIE COPE @ 500/1 (BET DIRECT)
2pts win PAUL HUNTER @ 50/1 (BET365) (Lay back at less than 10/1)
4pts win STEPHEN HENDRY @ 10/1 (WIDELY AVAILABLE) (Lay back at less than 4/1)
4pts win JOHN HIGGINS @ 16/1 (SPORTING ODDS) (Lay back at less than 5/1)
In the past, this tournament has been renowned for producing shocks. The top 16 players usually haven't played competitive snooker since the World Championships while the rest are match fit from a series of qualifying events. Without a doubt, many seeds will fall in the early stages so the sensible strategy must be to find plausible winners at big prices who are fancied to survive the first few rounds. The one that really stands out to me is BARRY HAWKINS at 100/1. The top half of the draw is dominated by World No 1 Ronnie and the player most likely to knock him off his perch, Stephen Maguire. My view is that Maguire is the man to beat this year but he could still be worth taking on this early in the year and I will never trust Ronnie again at short odds after his virtual nervous breakdown at Sheffield. Should these two get turned over, Hawkins looks as likely as anyone else in that half of the draw to reach the final. His first-round match against Tony Drago looks a shoe-in before potentially facing Peter Ebdon in Round 2. In recent years, Ebdon's form in early season best of nine matches has been nothing out of the ordinary whereas Hawkins looks the younger, hungrier player. In any case, there would be little to choose between the two on last year's form so I see no reason to warrant Hawkins' price tag.
Another contender at a big price in the top half could be PAUL HUNTER, in his first tournament back after cancer surgery. Paul is 50/1 to pull off what would be an extremely popular win, and though it is asking a hell of a lot, that price could look enormous should the draw open up for him. The Leeds man couldn't have been given an easier opening match against the limited Rory Mcleod and could trade at a much lower price just after that first match. Finally in the top half, have a tiny speculative punt on JAMIE COPE at 500/1. Though I've never had the pleasure of watching Cope play, many good judges speak very highly of him and Jamie's results in qualifying have been very impressive. Again, should he successfully negotiate a tough first round match against Joe Perry, only ordinary opposition would stand in the way of a good run.
The bottom half looks a lot tighter, with plenty of close matches in prospect. I'm going to break the habit of the lifetime here and recommend a trade on snooker legend STEPHEN HENDRY at 10/1. Hendry is normally the last player I'd back in a tournament like this, as his motivation and concentration are definitely suspect these days but I'm very confident that he will get through the early stages and trade at much, much shorter. The Scot has started the season well, playing well to reach the final of the Invitational Northern Ireland Classic in August and showing some nice form on the friendly Premier League circuit. Anything close to a reproduction of that form will surely be enough to get past Dominic Dale and Mark King and as other seeds fall, Hendry's price will definitely contract. However, should Hendry reach the last 8 I strongly recommend closing out this trade at shortish prices.
Similarly in the final quarter, JOHN HIGGINS looks a very reasonable trade at 16/1. For reasons that I can't fathom, the Wizard of Wishaw has developed a worrying tendency to lose concentration over the last few years despite apparently retaining all the ability that made him World Champion and the one to beat a few years ago. The only players who look capable of stopping him reaching the last 8 are Ian McCulloch and Ryan Day who, though dangerous, would start a match against Higgins as big outsiders. As with Hendry, if and when Higgins reaches the latter stages, he would be worth laying back at short prices.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
2pts ew BARRY HAWKINS @ 100/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER, UK BETTING)
0.25pts ew JAMIE COPE @ 500/1 (BET DIRECT)
2pts win PAUL HUNTER @ 50/1 (BET365) (Lay back at less than 10/1)
4pts win STEPHEN HENDRY @ 10/1 (WIDELY AVAILABLE) (Lay back at less than 4/1)
4pts win JOHN HIGGINS @ 16/1 (SPORTING ODDS) (Lay back at less than 5/1)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 9:30 AM
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