Garcia the one to beat in Euro finale
After recent winners like Wes Short and Lucas Glover, punters could be forgiven for losing faith with pre-tournament golf betting, but with both of this week's tournaments being staged at venues with a history of favouring the market leaders, I have a feeling normal service will be resumed. The 2005 European Tour reaches its conclusion with the megabucks Volvo Masters at its regular venue, Valderrama in Spain. This is last chance saloon for my Order of Merit tip MICHAEL CAMPBELL who must finish at least 4th to have a chance of catching Colin Montgomerie. I feel I must allow myself a minor moan about this bet as Campbell has done us proud and I was right that his main rival Retief Goosen was worth laying as he wouldn't take the prize seriously. If there were any justice in the betting world, we would now be celebrating as the Goose fails to bother to turn up for the deciding event but the astonishing and completely unpredictable return to brilliance of seven times OOM winner Monty has propelled the moody Scot past the Kiwi wonder! Lets just hope his highly controversial Indonesian prize money is not all that separates the two come Sunday night.
Nevertheless, I have a suspicion that justice may yet prevail and Campbell will finish his finest season ever with another big money triumph. Valderrama is a very difficult golf course that drives many to distraction. Course form is more important here than most, as is accuracy from tee to green. The US Open champ has now proved beyond doubt that he is capable of truly world class golf under such conditions and has shown a liking for Valderrama in the past. Ignore his catastrophic performance at last year's event as his game was all over the place at the time. On his previous two visits, Michael finished 7th and 9th in a more competitive Amex field in 2000.
The market revolves around Spanish enigma SERGIO GARCIA, who is very much the player to beat. He is the best player in the field on world rankings and status, has never finished out of the top-7 here, has finished top 3 in three of his last four performances and has home support. It is inconceivable that Sergio will go through his career without winning at Valderrama, and only failed last year by missing a very short birdie putt on the last. Putting remains the only thing keeping Garcia from giving Tiger Woods a regular run for his money and, frankly, he looked awful with the short stick in Mallorca last week. Obviously this is a deterrant to piling in but it is also important to remember that the greens are so hard on this course that everybody struggles, minimising the usual disadvantages faced by a poor putter. His chance is so obvious that I can't leave him out of the staking plan.
If there is an obvious rival for Europe's best player this season, DAVID HOWELL would have as good a claim as anyone. Howell has emerged as a world-class player in 2005 and deserves a big win to round the season off. Seven top-6 finishes from his last eleven starts make tremendous reading, with a gutsy win in Germany finally ridding him of the dreaded bottler tag. Considering the fact that he proved last year that he can play Valderrama well with a strong finish to make the top 5, Howell again looks a rock-solid value each-way bet.
For my final European selection, once again I shall take a chance on my nemesis LEE WESTWOOD. I've lost count of how much has been lost backing Westwood in the past year but I've got to stand by him as he will surely win again, soon, and probably more than once. On many occasions, often in world class company in the States, Lee has looked every inch a world class player again but strangely he keeps ruining his chance with one really poor round. His time is bound to come again soon and Valderrama is one place he will be very confident about. If you take away two efforts in 2002 and 2003 when his game was in a shocking state, Westwood's last four results here have been 7th, 2nd, 4th and 2nd.
Match and spread bets are more attractive than usual this week as there is no halfway cut which ensures we get four full rounds of competition, allowing for a poor start. I strongly fancy BRADLEY DREDGE will go well here as he has in the past. Bradley's barely had a poor tournament all summer and generally makes appeal in such markets as opposed to the win market. Alternatively three players well worth opposing are PADRAIG HARRINGTON, MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ and PAUL MCGINLEY. Pod has never liked Valderrama and is expected to struggle unless his long game dramatically improves on recent efforts. One of the finest performances of Jimenez's distinguished career came here when losing a play-off to Tiger Woods back in 1999, yet surprisingly he's done absolutely nothing on this course in the five years since and hasn't looked entirely convincing of late. In five visits to Valderrama, McGinley has yet to make the top 30, a poor figure in such limited fields, so I see no reason to expect a drastic turnaround.
Huge priced winners like Glover and Short prove the phenomenal strength in depth on the other side of the Atlantic and I am generally loathe to back favourites in the US but I must make an exception this week. The last two runnings at Westin Innesbrook have been dominated by VIJAY SINGH and RETIEF GOOSEN yet both look well overpriced. Goosen in particular seems a big price here at 14/1 considering that he's already won on his course debut in 2003. His odds seem an over-reaction to a recent injury and an uninspired return last week. I'm happy to ignore last week's effort and if the injury was still bothering him surely the Goose wouldn't be playing a run of the mill tournament like this. Looking at the bare facts, he has won three of his last six strokeplay starts and just a month ago, Retief looked the hottest player on the planet at the Presidents Cup. A final and decisive reason for siding with the quiet South African is an awesome record for winning tournaments at this time of the year, when plenty of others have had enough.
As for Singh, last year he led the field a merry dance here with a facile 5 shot win and the World No 2 also finished runner-up in 2003. After a few disappointing results culminating in last week's shock missed cut, Vijay seems out of favour but this relentless competitor will be desperate to bounce back and the fact that this week's event will be far less of a putting contest is very much in his favour. Prior to last week's blip, seven of his previous eight starts had yielded a top-10 finish despite being below his best while five of his last seven visits to Florida have yielded a top-3 finish! Like Goosen, the stats speak for themselves.
At this time of the year, its always useful to keep an eye out for players chasing a place in the top 30 on the US Money List which qualifies them for the lucrative forthcoming Tour Championship. In 37th place at present and in need of a big week is KJ CHOI. KJ did us a massive favour on his penultimate start when obliging at 40/1 and he looks to have found his form just in time. Choi is always at his best when faced with bentgrass greens and a course that particularly rewards strong iron play. The Korean relished such conditions when winning this tournament 3 years ago and a similar combination sparked his recent win at Greensboro. Interestingly, he avoided a potential earner last week and so will arrive fresh and prepared for one of his best opportunities of the year.
Finally, for a change I also recommend doubling up the four obvious selections each side of the Atlantic. Garcia, Howell, Singh and Goosen all look rock-solid contenders and highly likely to at least get places. A place double will at least cover our stake while two winners would be very lucrative!
Good Luck!
VOLVO MASTERS
4pts win SERGIO GARCIA @ 7/1 (UKBETTING, LADBROKES, TOTE)
2pts ew DAVID HOWELL @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 25/1 (HILLS, SKYBET, BETDIRECT)
1.5pts ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
MATCHES, 2-BALLS AND SPREADS
SUPPORT BRADLEY DREDGE
OPPOSE PADRAIG HARRINGTON
OPPOSE MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ
OPPOSE PAUL MCGINLEY
CHRYSLER CHAMPIONSHIP
3pts win RETIEF GOOSEN @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 8/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew KJ CHOI @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
4 X 1pt ew doubles GARCIA/HOWELL @ SINGH/GOOSEN
2005 STATISTICS (-7pts)
Nevertheless, I have a suspicion that justice may yet prevail and Campbell will finish his finest season ever with another big money triumph. Valderrama is a very difficult golf course that drives many to distraction. Course form is more important here than most, as is accuracy from tee to green. The US Open champ has now proved beyond doubt that he is capable of truly world class golf under such conditions and has shown a liking for Valderrama in the past. Ignore his catastrophic performance at last year's event as his game was all over the place at the time. On his previous two visits, Michael finished 7th and 9th in a more competitive Amex field in 2000.
The market revolves around Spanish enigma SERGIO GARCIA, who is very much the player to beat. He is the best player in the field on world rankings and status, has never finished out of the top-7 here, has finished top 3 in three of his last four performances and has home support. It is inconceivable that Sergio will go through his career without winning at Valderrama, and only failed last year by missing a very short birdie putt on the last. Putting remains the only thing keeping Garcia from giving Tiger Woods a regular run for his money and, frankly, he looked awful with the short stick in Mallorca last week. Obviously this is a deterrant to piling in but it is also important to remember that the greens are so hard on this course that everybody struggles, minimising the usual disadvantages faced by a poor putter. His chance is so obvious that I can't leave him out of the staking plan.
If there is an obvious rival for Europe's best player this season, DAVID HOWELL would have as good a claim as anyone. Howell has emerged as a world-class player in 2005 and deserves a big win to round the season off. Seven top-6 finishes from his last eleven starts make tremendous reading, with a gutsy win in Germany finally ridding him of the dreaded bottler tag. Considering the fact that he proved last year that he can play Valderrama well with a strong finish to make the top 5, Howell again looks a rock-solid value each-way bet.
For my final European selection, once again I shall take a chance on my nemesis LEE WESTWOOD. I've lost count of how much has been lost backing Westwood in the past year but I've got to stand by him as he will surely win again, soon, and probably more than once. On many occasions, often in world class company in the States, Lee has looked every inch a world class player again but strangely he keeps ruining his chance with one really poor round. His time is bound to come again soon and Valderrama is one place he will be very confident about. If you take away two efforts in 2002 and 2003 when his game was in a shocking state, Westwood's last four results here have been 7th, 2nd, 4th and 2nd.
Match and spread bets are more attractive than usual this week as there is no halfway cut which ensures we get four full rounds of competition, allowing for a poor start. I strongly fancy BRADLEY DREDGE will go well here as he has in the past. Bradley's barely had a poor tournament all summer and generally makes appeal in such markets as opposed to the win market. Alternatively three players well worth opposing are PADRAIG HARRINGTON, MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ and PAUL MCGINLEY. Pod has never liked Valderrama and is expected to struggle unless his long game dramatically improves on recent efforts. One of the finest performances of Jimenez's distinguished career came here when losing a play-off to Tiger Woods back in 1999, yet surprisingly he's done absolutely nothing on this course in the five years since and hasn't looked entirely convincing of late. In five visits to Valderrama, McGinley has yet to make the top 30, a poor figure in such limited fields, so I see no reason to expect a drastic turnaround.
Huge priced winners like Glover and Short prove the phenomenal strength in depth on the other side of the Atlantic and I am generally loathe to back favourites in the US but I must make an exception this week. The last two runnings at Westin Innesbrook have been dominated by VIJAY SINGH and RETIEF GOOSEN yet both look well overpriced. Goosen in particular seems a big price here at 14/1 considering that he's already won on his course debut in 2003. His odds seem an over-reaction to a recent injury and an uninspired return last week. I'm happy to ignore last week's effort and if the injury was still bothering him surely the Goose wouldn't be playing a run of the mill tournament like this. Looking at the bare facts, he has won three of his last six strokeplay starts and just a month ago, Retief looked the hottest player on the planet at the Presidents Cup. A final and decisive reason for siding with the quiet South African is an awesome record for winning tournaments at this time of the year, when plenty of others have had enough.
As for Singh, last year he led the field a merry dance here with a facile 5 shot win and the World No 2 also finished runner-up in 2003. After a few disappointing results culminating in last week's shock missed cut, Vijay seems out of favour but this relentless competitor will be desperate to bounce back and the fact that this week's event will be far less of a putting contest is very much in his favour. Prior to last week's blip, seven of his previous eight starts had yielded a top-10 finish despite being below his best while five of his last seven visits to Florida have yielded a top-3 finish! Like Goosen, the stats speak for themselves.
At this time of the year, its always useful to keep an eye out for players chasing a place in the top 30 on the US Money List which qualifies them for the lucrative forthcoming Tour Championship. In 37th place at present and in need of a big week is KJ CHOI. KJ did us a massive favour on his penultimate start when obliging at 40/1 and he looks to have found his form just in time. Choi is always at his best when faced with bentgrass greens and a course that particularly rewards strong iron play. The Korean relished such conditions when winning this tournament 3 years ago and a similar combination sparked his recent win at Greensboro. Interestingly, he avoided a potential earner last week and so will arrive fresh and prepared for one of his best opportunities of the year.
Finally, for a change I also recommend doubling up the four obvious selections each side of the Atlantic. Garcia, Howell, Singh and Goosen all look rock-solid contenders and highly likely to at least get places. A place double will at least cover our stake while two winners would be very lucrative!
Good Luck!
VOLVO MASTERS
4pts win SERGIO GARCIA @ 7/1 (UKBETTING, LADBROKES, TOTE)
2pts ew DAVID HOWELL @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 25/1 (HILLS, SKYBET, BETDIRECT)
1.5pts ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
MATCHES, 2-BALLS AND SPREADS
SUPPORT BRADLEY DREDGE
OPPOSE PADRAIG HARRINGTON
OPPOSE MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ
OPPOSE PAUL MCGINLEY
CHRYSLER CHAMPIONSHIP
3pts win RETIEF GOOSEN @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 8/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew KJ CHOI @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
4 X 1pt ew doubles GARCIA/HOWELL @ SINGH/GOOSEN
2005 STATISTICS (-7pts)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 3:33 PM
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