Stick with Gore while he's still 50/1
The Madrid Open has developed a reputation in recent years as a tournament for outsiders and there is every reason to believe that trend will continue. There are only four world class players who have bothered to make the long trip back from South Africa and I have serious doubts about three of them.
After two tremendous weeks, Colin Montgomerie seeks to extend his Order of Merit lead in a tournament that he has only recently added to his schedule. Some might take that as a tip but I really can't see 42 year-old Monty managing to produce three weeks in a row with two of them interrupted by jetlag. Without taking anything away from his recent successes, I just don't believe he can produce it as consistently as at his peak so Colin must rate a good lay at less than 8/1.
Next in the betting is Darren Clarke, who has a decent record at Club De Campo but such a bad career win ratio that single figure odds make no appeal whatsoever, especially bearing in mind his stop-start season as his wife's illness has distracted his attention. Miguel Angel Jiminez has never done much here despite generally performing on home soil, so almost by process of elimination JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL looks the obvious main selection.
Spanish legend Olly must rate the unluckiest player not to win in 2005 after a series of fine efforts either side of the Atlantic but he has a good chance of finally hitting the jackpot this week. Last time out in Europe he finished runner-up and his final round at the weekend in San Francisco was his best of the week. With home support I'm sure he'll be busting a gut to win this event and he looks the one to beat.
I'm also prepared to give STEVE WEBSTER one last chance in 2005. After waiting what seemed like an eternity to land his first professional victory, this talented player was widely tipped to finally fulfil his considerable potential. Despite a few good efforts since, I think its fair to say we're still waiting. I vividly recall a previous visit to Club De Campo in 2001 though, when Steve put up what at the time was his best career effort when only being denied by Retief Goosen in a play-off so lets see if positive associations do the trick here.
There really doesn't seem to much strength in depth once you look past the first four and with the tournament prone to yielding shock winners I'm going for a couple of small, speculative punts at huge odds. This event is always played at the end of the season and often players battling to save their Tour cards have come to the fore. Last season I recall being impressed by WADE ORMSBY as he won his card with three fine closing rounds. When he turned pro a couple of years back, Ormsby was being touted as the latest Aussie prospect and there have been several highly promising performances even if the youngster hasn't really produced the goods yet. Positive memories of Club De Campo could encourage a big run this week. One player in need of a big finish to the year to retain his card is talented South African HENNIE OTTO. Otto is capable of winning in good company on his day and his best efforts in Europe have usually come in Spain. After some solid efforts in minor events at home, I expect a decent showing on his first European excursion for a while. The PGA Tour moves on to its regular fixture in Las Vegas, the Michelin Pro-Am Championship. As always in such events, one of the key attributes will be patience with fourballs including two amateurs expected to produce rounds in excess of 6 hours. Normally I'm not enthusiastic about betting in this type of tournament but this year several players seem to stand out.
Anyone who saw the recent 84 Lumber Classic must now be in no doubt about the massive potential of JASON GORE. Since arriving on the world scene as a no-hoper in June at the US Open where he played superbly for the first three days, Gore continued his winning ways on the Nationwide Tour before landing his first PGA win in Pennsylvania. This attacking prospect is a birdie machine and I could see him taking easy Summerlin apart. Certainly while he is still available at 50/1+ Jason remains very much a player to keep on your side.
With scoring certain to be very low, only the most in-form putters can be expected to contend so I simply have to include BEN CRANE in the staking plan. After a fine summer, Crane is no secret to the bookies as his best price of 33/1 indicates. Nevertheless, such has been his consistency lately that he looks a better value bet than anyone above him in the betting. He's already managed two top-20s here in the past three years when barely a shadow of his present confident self and has shown promise in pro-ams before. As one of the slowest players on tour, Crane at least will be happy with the snails pace of this tournament.
Sweden's CARL PETTERSSON has taken the eye in recent weeks with a solid run of figures without ever really threatening to win. He finished last year in similar vein including 5th place here so is clearly happy with the pro-am format. I could see this fine putter shooting very low on this easy set-up so Carl looks worth chancing at the tasty odds of 80/1.
Though he doesn't particularly stand out on recent form, I can't ignore the massive price of 80/1 for LEE WESTWOOD. Despite two years without a win, plenty of his golf during this time has been top class and I'm sure a win is just around the corner. Though it was 8 years ago, Lee remains one of the few Europeans to have actually won in the States. He was only beaten by three shots a fortnight ago at the Dunhill Links where he was only 20/1 in a field of only slightly lower quality so this price makes plenty of appeal. Lets not forget, too, that Westwood has won pr0-ams in Scotland and South Africa before so shouldn't be fazed by the format.
Good Luck!
MADRID OPEN
2pts ew JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew STEVE WEBSTER @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew WADE ORMSBY @ 150/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew HENNIE OTTO @ 150/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
MICHELIN CHAMPIONSHIP
2pts ew JASON GORE @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BEN CRANE @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew CARL PETTERSSON @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 80/1 (SKYBET)
2005 STATISTICS: (-9pts)
After two tremendous weeks, Colin Montgomerie seeks to extend his Order of Merit lead in a tournament that he has only recently added to his schedule. Some might take that as a tip but I really can't see 42 year-old Monty managing to produce three weeks in a row with two of them interrupted by jetlag. Without taking anything away from his recent successes, I just don't believe he can produce it as consistently as at his peak so Colin must rate a good lay at less than 8/1.
Next in the betting is Darren Clarke, who has a decent record at Club De Campo but such a bad career win ratio that single figure odds make no appeal whatsoever, especially bearing in mind his stop-start season as his wife's illness has distracted his attention. Miguel Angel Jiminez has never done much here despite generally performing on home soil, so almost by process of elimination JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL looks the obvious main selection.
Spanish legend Olly must rate the unluckiest player not to win in 2005 after a series of fine efforts either side of the Atlantic but he has a good chance of finally hitting the jackpot this week. Last time out in Europe he finished runner-up and his final round at the weekend in San Francisco was his best of the week. With home support I'm sure he'll be busting a gut to win this event and he looks the one to beat.
I'm also prepared to give STEVE WEBSTER one last chance in 2005. After waiting what seemed like an eternity to land his first professional victory, this talented player was widely tipped to finally fulfil his considerable potential. Despite a few good efforts since, I think its fair to say we're still waiting. I vividly recall a previous visit to Club De Campo in 2001 though, when Steve put up what at the time was his best career effort when only being denied by Retief Goosen in a play-off so lets see if positive associations do the trick here.
There really doesn't seem to much strength in depth once you look past the first four and with the tournament prone to yielding shock winners I'm going for a couple of small, speculative punts at huge odds. This event is always played at the end of the season and often players battling to save their Tour cards have come to the fore. Last season I recall being impressed by WADE ORMSBY as he won his card with three fine closing rounds. When he turned pro a couple of years back, Ormsby was being touted as the latest Aussie prospect and there have been several highly promising performances even if the youngster hasn't really produced the goods yet. Positive memories of Club De Campo could encourage a big run this week. One player in need of a big finish to the year to retain his card is talented South African HENNIE OTTO. Otto is capable of winning in good company on his day and his best efforts in Europe have usually come in Spain. After some solid efforts in minor events at home, I expect a decent showing on his first European excursion for a while. The PGA Tour moves on to its regular fixture in Las Vegas, the Michelin Pro-Am Championship. As always in such events, one of the key attributes will be patience with fourballs including two amateurs expected to produce rounds in excess of 6 hours. Normally I'm not enthusiastic about betting in this type of tournament but this year several players seem to stand out.
Anyone who saw the recent 84 Lumber Classic must now be in no doubt about the massive potential of JASON GORE. Since arriving on the world scene as a no-hoper in June at the US Open where he played superbly for the first three days, Gore continued his winning ways on the Nationwide Tour before landing his first PGA win in Pennsylvania. This attacking prospect is a birdie machine and I could see him taking easy Summerlin apart. Certainly while he is still available at 50/1+ Jason remains very much a player to keep on your side.
With scoring certain to be very low, only the most in-form putters can be expected to contend so I simply have to include BEN CRANE in the staking plan. After a fine summer, Crane is no secret to the bookies as his best price of 33/1 indicates. Nevertheless, such has been his consistency lately that he looks a better value bet than anyone above him in the betting. He's already managed two top-20s here in the past three years when barely a shadow of his present confident self and has shown promise in pro-ams before. As one of the slowest players on tour, Crane at least will be happy with the snails pace of this tournament.
Sweden's CARL PETTERSSON has taken the eye in recent weeks with a solid run of figures without ever really threatening to win. He finished last year in similar vein including 5th place here so is clearly happy with the pro-am format. I could see this fine putter shooting very low on this easy set-up so Carl looks worth chancing at the tasty odds of 80/1.
Though he doesn't particularly stand out on recent form, I can't ignore the massive price of 80/1 for LEE WESTWOOD. Despite two years without a win, plenty of his golf during this time has been top class and I'm sure a win is just around the corner. Though it was 8 years ago, Lee remains one of the few Europeans to have actually won in the States. He was only beaten by three shots a fortnight ago at the Dunhill Links where he was only 20/1 in a field of only slightly lower quality so this price makes plenty of appeal. Lets not forget, too, that Westwood has won pr0-ams in Scotland and South Africa before so shouldn't be fazed by the format.
Good Luck!
MADRID OPEN
2pts ew JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew STEVE WEBSTER @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew WADE ORMSBY @ 150/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew HENNIE OTTO @ 150/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
MICHELIN CHAMPIONSHIP
2pts ew JASON GORE @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BEN CRANE @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew CARL PETTERSSON @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 80/1 (SKYBET)
2005 STATISTICS: (-9pts)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 4:39 PM
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