Tour Championship Preview
The final event of the 2005/2006 PGA Tour season has been severely undermined by the optional absence of the world's two leading players, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. Its no great shock to see Mickelson opting for a long winter, but Woods' decision to take another week's rest before heading to the Far East next week is bizarre. On the positive side, it leaves us with an interesting betting heat which probably wouldn't have been the case had Tiger played.
27 players remain in the event, of which 12 have never played the East Lake course. The best form on the course is held by Vijay Singh and Retief Goosen. However Goose cannot be backed after a poor season by his standards, and I'm just not prepared to back Singh after he let me down badly again at the weekend. Jim Furyk is a very worthy favourite after the best season of his career. He came 3rd here in 1999 and on all recent form deserves to be labelled the best player around bar Tiger, but I can think of better single-figure bets than Furyk, who while wonderfully consistent has never really been a prolific winner. The resurgent Davis Love comes here in fine form and also has a great record at East Lake, but his price of 12/1 is just too short for a man who had looked in terminal decline until about 6 weeks ago.
At the odds, the one that really stands out is ADAM SCOTT at 14/1. Presumably this is a reaction to last week's missed cut, but I never fancied him to do much at Copperhead and on all other 2006 form and his last three rounds at East Lake in 2005, the young Aussie has a favourite's chance in my view. While his only recent win has come in Singapore, it should be noted that Scott has seven top-5 finishes since May, including runner-up to Woods in the WGC on his penultimate start. 7th in this event last year did him great credit after a poor start.
My other two selections are course debutants at much bigger odds. Firstly AARON OBERHOLSER remains a player very much on my short-list after another very promising year. Since winning his first event at Pebble Beach, he threatened to contend for a long way in both of the season's first two Majors, plus Sawgrass. His schedule is lighter than most - a sensible move in my view - but his form has held throughout with three consecutive top-12s in August and September including the two WGC events. Recent greens in regulation statistics read very nicely, as do his final three rounds on his last event a fortnight ago.
Finally, I'm sticking with last week's unlucky selection ROD PAMPLING. Hopefully some of you will have found a firm offering top-6 for each-way bets on the Aussie. I didn't and was doubly frustrated on Sunday night following the Paul Casey saga to see Pamps finish a shot out of the frame at 125/1. But what this confirms is that Rod is in top nick approaching a crucial time of the year for him, with the Australasian season about to commence. The Bay Hill winner looks very fair value again here at 50/1.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
4pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew AARON OBERHOLSER @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew ROD PAMPLING @ 50/1 (LADBROKES, PADDY POWER, HILLS, SPORTINGBET)
Good Luck!
2006 STATS: +78.5pts
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
27 players remain in the event, of which 12 have never played the East Lake course. The best form on the course is held by Vijay Singh and Retief Goosen. However Goose cannot be backed after a poor season by his standards, and I'm just not prepared to back Singh after he let me down badly again at the weekend. Jim Furyk is a very worthy favourite after the best season of his career. He came 3rd here in 1999 and on all recent form deserves to be labelled the best player around bar Tiger, but I can think of better single-figure bets than Furyk, who while wonderfully consistent has never really been a prolific winner. The resurgent Davis Love comes here in fine form and also has a great record at East Lake, but his price of 12/1 is just too short for a man who had looked in terminal decline until about 6 weeks ago.
At the odds, the one that really stands out is ADAM SCOTT at 14/1. Presumably this is a reaction to last week's missed cut, but I never fancied him to do much at Copperhead and on all other 2006 form and his last three rounds at East Lake in 2005, the young Aussie has a favourite's chance in my view. While his only recent win has come in Singapore, it should be noted that Scott has seven top-5 finishes since May, including runner-up to Woods in the WGC on his penultimate start. 7th in this event last year did him great credit after a poor start.
My other two selections are course debutants at much bigger odds. Firstly AARON OBERHOLSER remains a player very much on my short-list after another very promising year. Since winning his first event at Pebble Beach, he threatened to contend for a long way in both of the season's first two Majors, plus Sawgrass. His schedule is lighter than most - a sensible move in my view - but his form has held throughout with three consecutive top-12s in August and September including the two WGC events. Recent greens in regulation statistics read very nicely, as do his final three rounds on his last event a fortnight ago.
Finally, I'm sticking with last week's unlucky selection ROD PAMPLING. Hopefully some of you will have found a firm offering top-6 for each-way bets on the Aussie. I didn't and was doubly frustrated on Sunday night following the Paul Casey saga to see Pamps finish a shot out of the frame at 125/1. But what this confirms is that Rod is in top nick approaching a crucial time of the year for him, with the Australasian season about to commence. The Bay Hill winner looks very fair value again here at 50/1.
Good Luck!
STAKING PLAN
4pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew AARON OBERHOLSER @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew ROD PAMPLING @ 50/1 (LADBROKES, PADDY POWER, HILLS, SPORTINGBET)
Good Luck!
2006 STATS: +78.5pts
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 8:16 AM
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