When Greece won the last Euros, it was widely interpreted as a massive shock. Of course they did start as rank outsiders so in that sense it was a shock, but I recall several shrewd characters who thought they were under-rated beforehand and duly profitted. They certainly weren't unbackable.
It has become an indisputable fact that international football, especially the final knockout stages of tournaments, is far more wide open than the betting suggests. Austria are completely out of their depth, but besides them and perhaps the other hosts Switzerland, there is very little to choose between the rest.
In my view, the main reason is that, in stark contrast to club football where the cheque book and transfer market dictate success, international football remains a test of coaching, strategy and team unity. Even the biggest countries are forced to pick from the players available, unable to dig themselves out of a hole with a multi-million pound signing. There are numerous examples over the last two decades - Greece, Czech Republic, Turkey, Denmark, Republic of Ireland - of teams that had very limited strength of depth on paper, but overachieved because of the continuity and spirit within their set-up.
As usual, my plan is to look for value trades on teams that have the ability to reach the latter stages and see their odds shorten dramatically. Examination of the draw is essential. One finalist will come from Groups A and B, one from C and D. The first of those halves contains Austria and Switzerland, who are hard to fancy. Austria are no-hopers, well worth taking on heavily in each game. Without being hosts, they wouldn't have had a prayer of qualifying. The Swiss are somewhat better - in fact I backed them in various forms to do well at the last world cup and they did qualify for the last-16. However, their supposed home advantage, (lets face it, the Swiss aren't known for creating a hostile atmosphere!), is more than adequately reflected in their odds.
Of the other six in that half, Germany stand out. Coach Joachim Low is widely credited as being the coaching brain behind their impressive 2006 World Cup campaign, which was headed by Jurgen Klinsmann. The pair added attacking brilliance to Germany's infamous efficient qualities, and saw massive improvement. Klose, Podolski and Ballack are all expected to make their mark on the scoresheet. In a group with Austria, Croatia and Poland, its very hard to see them not progressing to the latter stages. But are they any value at 4/1? Probably not, though they're a must for any combinations in the 'Name the Finalists' market. And I love the 4/5 available on Germany scoring 8 or more tournament goals with Betfair. They are capable of making that total in the group stages, let alone over the probable five or six games.
The other three fancied sides in that half - at least fancied by the market to progress - are Portugal, Czech Republic and Croatia. In all three cases though, any value may have gone. I did very nicely in 2004 out of trading Portugal and the Czechs at nice prices through till the semi-finals, though this time everyone rates them accordingly. Under Scolari, Portugal have become a very hard side to beat, and reliable in the major championships. However, they've also rarely turned on the style during his leadership. Christiano Ronaldo, in particular, has rarely looked a patch of his Man Utd self at international level. This side massively underperformed in the semis of both the last World Cup and Euros, so make no appeal to me at short-prices. Like Germany though, they must be taken seriously as potential finalists from this draw.
Under the brilliant stewardship of Karel Brueckner, the Czechs have become a major force in international football. In 2004, I felt they were the best team and a little unlucky, hitting the woodwork on several occasions against Greece in the semis. They qualified impressively again, and have never looked notably inferior when up against other top sides. However on the downside, there must be a danger that the Koller/Baros front-line is getting a bit long in the tooth and without Nedved, Rosicky or Poborsky I doubt they'll represent the same threat this time.
My lack of confidence in these two makes TURKEY a must-bet at 3.35 to qualify from Group A. Why they are more than whole a point higher than the Swiss is a mystery to me. Its six years since they reached the World Cup semis, and nobody would deny that they haven't matched that level since. But they remain a competitive force against any European side. Their record in qualification wasn't as impressive as some others, but then they were in a much more competitive group than most. Its not so much that I think Turkey are particularly brilliant, rather they rate as big value at the odds. Beyond just qualifying, 66/1 is a huge each-way price. No way on earth should the real odds on them reaching the final be 33/1. Theoretically to achieve that, they could be required to qualify from that group, followed by ties against Poland and the Czechs. If we can get them through to the last eight, that each-way bet will be a valuable position to hold.
Also with regard to Group A, I think there will be very few goals, making Boylesports 15/8 about less than 13 goals from the six group games a decent bet. Portugal and the Czechs both have miserly defensive records, and it is in this department that the Swiss and Turkey are at their best. Indeed, the latter pair's main weakness is an inability to score. I can see plenty of 0-0 and 1-0 scorelines here.
Group C is this year's 'Group of Death', with Italy, Holland, France and Romania. The last-named are no rags by any means, with a fine qualification record and rock-solid defence. Italy are seriously respected as potential winners, but France look to me the team to oppose. They no longer have Zidane and Henry is a pale shadow of his former self, and few coaches in the tournament instill less confidence than Raymond Domenech. If you take away a Zidane-inspired return to their best in the latter stages of the World Cup, France have been disappointing for several years. They only just qualified because Scotland failed against Georgia. I just cannot have them as 1.63 chances to qualify from that brutal group, and strongly recommend laying it.
Its in Group D where we find my main outright bet, RUSSIA. Spain are all the rage here, as short as second-favourites purely on the basis of the individuals in their squad. But how often has the team with the best individuals won these tournaments? Not many is the answer, though more times than the Spanish have produced their best at a major tournament. Any team with Torres, Fabregas and the rest deserves respect, but in my view they simply have to be opposed at those odds.
The other three teams in that group are Russia, Greece and Sweden. Greece have broadly the same outfit that won last time, and certainly have the capability to qualify again. It will surely be much harder second time around though. As for Sweden, they're a team that I urgently want to oppose. They are another ageing side, (that still includes Freddie Ljundberg!), and are rated too heavily on past performances and qualifying. Its worth noting that the group that Spain and Sweden qualified from was absolutely dire - Northern Ireland held a chance of qualifying close to the end.
Russia, who qualified ahead of decent sides in England and Israel, have a great chance of reaching the latter stages. They have the best coach in the event, Guus Hiddink, and remember its only a few weeks since a Russian side won the UEFA Cup. Should they qualify as expected, their odds of 28/1 would reduce dramatically and they would hold a decent chance against the rest.
Finally, as alluded to above, the 'Name the Finalists' market could also offer some trading value. I'm having four bets, covering permutations of Germany and Portugal from the top-half, plus Italy and Russia from the bottom at the combined odds of roughly 9/2. I'm confident that come the quarter-final stages and beyond this will offer a chance to close out for profit if desired.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
OUTRIGHT
10pts ew RUSSIA @ 28/1 (STAN JAMES, BETDIRECT, BETFRED, TOTE)
3pts ew TURKEY @ 66/1 (PADDY POWER, SKYBET)
GROUP A
15pts TURKEY TO QUALIFY @ 3.35 (BETFAIR)
8pts UNDER 13 GROUP GOALS @ 15/8 (BOYLES)
GROUP B
15pts GERMANY TO SCORE OVER 7.5 GOALS @ 4/5 (BET365)
GROUP C
LAY FRANCE 30pts TO QUALIFY @ 1.63 (BETFAIR) OR 6/4 NOT TO QUALIFY (HILLS)
NOMINATE THE FINALISTS
10pts GERMANY/ITALY @ 11/1 (STAN JAMES, BETDIRECT)
6pts PORTUGAL/ITALY @ 18/1 (TOTE)
2pts GERMANY/RUSSIA @ 55/1 (HILLS)
2pts PORTUGAL/RUSSIA @ 80/1 (BET365, HILLS, SPORTINGBET)
