UK Snooker Championship Preview
The second biggest event of the snooker calendar began yesterday in York, the UK Championships. The tournament takes place over the next fortnight, with the seeded players opening their campaigns on Wednesday. With matches played over best of 17 frames than the usual best of 9, this tournament has always tended to follow the formbook and yield predictable results. Even in the past 2 years, while the winners have been unseeded, neither Stephen Maguire or Ding Junhui were shock winners.
The problem nowadays is working out exactly what the formbook says. Tournaments are so few and far between, and the three we've had so far have each used a different format. The Northern Ireland Classic, a low key affair if ever there was one, was a standard knockout with most matches played over best of 9. The Grand Prix was played partly in a round-robin group format over best of 5, with many contenders eliminated early amidst that particular lottery. And once again Ronnie O'Sullivan dominated the Premier League, where the short matches and fast paced play suit him down to a tee. I wouldn't take too much notice of that form though, as two of his six vanquished rivals there were Steve Davis and Jimmy White, while Ding missed the finals due to Asian Games commitments.
Snooker has only become a wide-open betting heat in recent years - normally this is a sport dominated by the elite players. But the last few years have seen a long-standing elite slip into slow decline, and no single player has been good enough to dominate. Ronnie remains prohibitively priced for every event, but ultimately flatters to deceive. I can't think of any sporting star that has so regularly let down odds-on backers. Stephen Hendry is a very pale shadow of the player who dominated snooker for a decade, yet incredibly is world ranked No 1. Ken Doherty is the provisional top-ranked player, but has got there without improving. An opportunity to dominate the game exists for any young star who can mature quickly into the type of competitor in the Davis/Hendry mould.
Bearing that in mind, having downed Ronnie in the NI Classic, its easy to make a very strong case for a successful defence for Ding. The Chinese prodigy is one of two young players in particular who look certain to contend for multiple world titles over the next decade - Ding and NEIL ROBERTSON. Its particularly interesting to see that they have won the two open events so far. The only problem with Ding here is that he has a very tricky draw, with potentially Ryan Day, Matthew Stevens, Peter Ebdon and John Higgins barring his route to the final.
As always with snooker betting, the absolute key is trying to calculate which areas of the draw are weakest. One quarter particularly takes the eye. In the bottom quarter, its very hard to see a semi-finalist emerging other than Robertson, SHAUN MURPHY and world champ Graeme Dott. 2005 World Champion Murphy is long overdue another win. He's certainly got the talent and temperament to win, and seems a better player over the longer frames. In fact, it was Robertson who knocked Murphy out last season here in a cracker. Unless Dott can stop the Aussie in the second round, I strongly expect to see a classic Murphy/Robbo quarter-final. If this is the case, by backing both Murphy and Robertson now, we will be guaranteed an 8/1 chance in the semis at attractive each-way terms.
The player I fear most is John Higgins, who I believe was the best player last season. His draw is perfectly reasonable, but the odds of 6/1 are nothing out of the ordinary. A better value bet lies with dual world champion MARK WILLIAMS at 16/1. Towards the end of last season, Williams looked almost back to his best, and may well have added a third World crown had he not lost a classic to Ronnie at Sheffield. His Aberdeen efforts were curtailed by injury, but provided all is now well as reported, the Welsh star is a big threat to all here.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
10pts ew SHAUN MURPHY @ 16/1 (PADDY POWER, STAN JAMES, HILLS)
10pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 16/1 (HILLS)
10pts win MARK WILLIAMS @ 16/1 (SPORTING ODDS, PADDY POWER, STAN JAMES, HILLS)
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP
10pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 40/1
The problem nowadays is working out exactly what the formbook says. Tournaments are so few and far between, and the three we've had so far have each used a different format. The Northern Ireland Classic, a low key affair if ever there was one, was a standard knockout with most matches played over best of 9. The Grand Prix was played partly in a round-robin group format over best of 5, with many contenders eliminated early amidst that particular lottery. And once again Ronnie O'Sullivan dominated the Premier League, where the short matches and fast paced play suit him down to a tee. I wouldn't take too much notice of that form though, as two of his six vanquished rivals there were Steve Davis and Jimmy White, while Ding missed the finals due to Asian Games commitments.
Snooker has only become a wide-open betting heat in recent years - normally this is a sport dominated by the elite players. But the last few years have seen a long-standing elite slip into slow decline, and no single player has been good enough to dominate. Ronnie remains prohibitively priced for every event, but ultimately flatters to deceive. I can't think of any sporting star that has so regularly let down odds-on backers. Stephen Hendry is a very pale shadow of the player who dominated snooker for a decade, yet incredibly is world ranked No 1. Ken Doherty is the provisional top-ranked player, but has got there without improving. An opportunity to dominate the game exists for any young star who can mature quickly into the type of competitor in the Davis/Hendry mould.
Bearing that in mind, having downed Ronnie in the NI Classic, its easy to make a very strong case for a successful defence for Ding. The Chinese prodigy is one of two young players in particular who look certain to contend for multiple world titles over the next decade - Ding and NEIL ROBERTSON. Its particularly interesting to see that they have won the two open events so far. The only problem with Ding here is that he has a very tricky draw, with potentially Ryan Day, Matthew Stevens, Peter Ebdon and John Higgins barring his route to the final.
As always with snooker betting, the absolute key is trying to calculate which areas of the draw are weakest. One quarter particularly takes the eye. In the bottom quarter, its very hard to see a semi-finalist emerging other than Robertson, SHAUN MURPHY and world champ Graeme Dott. 2005 World Champion Murphy is long overdue another win. He's certainly got the talent and temperament to win, and seems a better player over the longer frames. In fact, it was Robertson who knocked Murphy out last season here in a cracker. Unless Dott can stop the Aussie in the second round, I strongly expect to see a classic Murphy/Robbo quarter-final. If this is the case, by backing both Murphy and Robertson now, we will be guaranteed an 8/1 chance in the semis at attractive each-way terms.
The player I fear most is John Higgins, who I believe was the best player last season. His draw is perfectly reasonable, but the odds of 6/1 are nothing out of the ordinary. A better value bet lies with dual world champion MARK WILLIAMS at 16/1. Towards the end of last season, Williams looked almost back to his best, and may well have added a third World crown had he not lost a classic to Ronnie at Sheffield. His Aberdeen efforts were curtailed by injury, but provided all is now well as reported, the Welsh star is a big threat to all here.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
10pts ew SHAUN MURPHY @ 16/1 (PADDY POWER, STAN JAMES, HILLS)
10pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 16/1 (HILLS)
10pts win MARK WILLIAMS @ 16/1 (SPORTING ODDS, PADDY POWER, STAN JAMES, HILLS)
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP
10pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 40/1
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 5:18 PM
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