By-election analysis

Thursday's interesting by-election results raise all sorts of interesting questions ahead of the next General Election. Yet again, Tony Blair was saved from the worst possible headlines by a poor Tory performance in Bromley, but there is absolutely nothing for Labour to cheer about. Hazel Blears was rolled out, predictably, to put a positive spin on things but as usual, she failed miserably in convincing anyone bar perhaps Blair, who seems to be completely impervious to his party's imminent decline. The winning independent candidate in Bleneau Gwent made quite a profound victory speech, in which he crystallised the problem faced by the two main parties. He said that, like the dinosaurs, the old political parties who were once considered invincible would die out unless they started to engage with their core support. Just as with Ken Livingstone, Dr Richard Taylor and George Galloway, voters proved more than willing to vote for somebody outside the establishment party machines.

This has far more resonance for Labour. I wrote a couple of years ago on here that Blair was destroying the Labour Party. Now I wonder if the destruction is almost complete. There are virtually no voluntary Labour activists left. New Labour masks its decline as a mass membership party by using paid staff to travel to critical seats, phone canvass and create the illusion of support for Blair at the party conference but its not working. The party is over £10M in debt. Following on from the devastating Dunfermline loss in February, it seems no Labour seat is safe anymore. As it stands, they will struggle to win a single marginal next time. And any hopes of a recovery under a Gordon Brown leadership seem optimistic now. Brown was an asset at the last election, and really should have taken over a couple of years ago when Blair lost all remaining credibility over WMD. But since then his own reputation has taken a nose-dive along with the government in general and David Cameron has emerged, transforming Tory electoral prospects. With the millions of people who define themselves as either socialists, social-democrats or just plain progressives feeling increasingly disenfranchised, Brown's answer is to court the Murdoch press, shift blame from his own incompetance to low-paid public sector workers and signal his support for Trident. Not a sensible strategy.

Labour's problems stem from their transformation into an electoral machine. Under Britain's outdated and unrepresentative electoral system, strategists worked out a long time ago that the only votes worth chasing were those of relatively politically ignorant swing voters who occupied the mythical 'centre-ground'. New Labour's advocates point to three consecutive election victories, but at what cost? We now see that the Left, and much of the loyal core vote that kept the party going during the long opposition years, has given up. When Labour's popularity reaches its low-point, who will be left to support them? Most of us on the Left find a Labour vote unimaginable these days. Now David Cameron promises to imitate this strategy with the Tories, jettisoning one traditional position after another. The interesting thing to see will be how the Right react, should Cameron actually back up his liberalism with policy. Would a Cameron government sideline the party in order to promote loyal, centrally approved A-list candidates? After all, Blair has ignored his party for 9 years yet still they fail to threaten his position.

UKIP's performance in Bromley last night suggests Cameron's core vote will be under threat, but I'm not convinced. Come a General Election, would lifelong Tories really risk another Labour win by issuing a pointless protest vote? There are all sorts of differences between last night's by-election in an ultra-safe Tory seat and a General Election. Firstly, Tory voters may have been complacent and failed to turn out. Secondly, this battle was fought locally by activists - an arena where they rarely trump the youthful, busy Lib Dems. A General Election campaign is largely fought on television, where Cameron has already proved himself as a natural. I'm expecting an extremely slick, if superficial and intellectually dishonest, Tory campaign. Thirdly, come the election, most of those Lib Dem activists will be working in more realistic seats.

What it did confirm was that the Lib Dems and multi-party politics is here to stay. Since Ming Campbell's turgid leadership began, acolytes of the big two have been quick to predict Lib Dem implosion and a return to the days of two-party dominance. No chance. The Lib Dems have carved out their own niche position on the Liberal Left and have proved that their progress from the last decade is a about a lot more than just the leadership. Principled positions on Iraq, Guantanemo, Tuition Fees and Tax have made them the natural home for progressives, especially as Blair turns Labour into a neo-conservative, authoritarian party. Their ever growing base of local councillors has proved the perfect springboard, and they remain the biggest threat to Labour in the North and Scotland. I still think they will suffer a net loss to the Tories next time, but it will be limited and probably be balanced by gains from Labour. With the current electoral geography, a bet on 'No Overall Majority' looks an absolute banker at 2.4 on Betfair.