Betting previews for Gleneagles and Avenel golf events
Its going to be hard for us punters to get as enthusiastic about this weekend's golf after Sunday night's incredible drama, so imagine what it must be like for the golfers. Several defections from exhausted Winged Foot competitors have left the US event bereft of top names, while PAUL CASEY, Thomas Bjorn and Colin Montgomerie are the only top Europeans to fly back for the fairly prestigious Johnnie Walker Championship at Gleneagles. While Monty sounded upbeat to have gone so close, he must be mentally exhausted and he wouldn't be human to not reflect that he probably blew the best chance he'll ever get to land that elusive Major.
Casey will also have been delighted with the weekend's efforts, finished superbly to make top-15 after opening with a 77. He has an extremely obvious chance on a course that he's won before back in 2001. Casey deserves some reward for several months of phenomenal consistency - he's finished no worse than 18th anywhere in the world since January. After the last-day disaster at The Belfry where he had the event won, question marks resurfaced about his bottle. In many ways this reminds me of David Howell's slow progress to the world's top-10. For 18 months, he was the most consistent player in Europe but just couldn't finish off tournaments. Eventually, he nailed an event in Germany last summer which proved the perfect springboard to move up to the highest level in world golf. If Casey continues to play as consistently as this, the rewards will come. We must keep the faith.
The other top player, Bjorn, could be interesting on a course he should like despite having never played it. But as always there's a huge element of guesswork about Bjorn's mindset, its surely better to go with players who didn't make the journey to the States to suffer golfing torture which is bound to have left its mark on confidence. Most obviously, PAUL BROADHURST has a great chance to gain some compensation for failing to qualify for Winged Foot. Enjoying his best form at least for a decade, Borady again played really well behind Robert Karlsson in Austria. A winner already in Portugal this year, knowing he likes the course from a 3rd place in 2003, he must surely be there or thereabouts over the weekend.
FRANCESCO MOLINARI can be forgiven a few disappointing efforts since that runaway debut win in his native Italian Open. Rookies always suffer from inconsistency, especially as they learn the regular courses, but confidence will surely be on a high playing on a course where he finished a fine 6th on his debut last year, Gleneagles has proved a good course for similar novice prospects in recent years - Adam Scott and Paul Casey were both very inexperienced when winning their titles.
Using a similar argument, it wouldn't surprise me at all if ROSS FISHER were a factor on his first main tour visit to Scotland. Over the winter on the South African and Australian tours, Fisher showed a similar level of extemely promising form as Molinari, particularly on classic courses like Fancourt. He lost nothing in defeat when a close 5th behind the vastly more experienced Bjorn, Casey and Clarke in the Irish Open last month, and will be in contention again before long.
Such is the mediocrity of the field for the Booz Allen Classic that it would come as no surprise if this were the week of the 250/1 outsider. Padraig Harrington had looked an extremely vulnerable favourite but now he and Bo Van Pelthas withdrawn, there's about 10 players vying for favouritism from 25/1 upwards. Of this bunch, the only one that strikes me as a likely contender is BART BRYANT. The key to success at Avenel is accuracy to the greens, and Bryant is one of the best in this department. 32nd doesn't really imply how well Bryant played at the US Open as a couple of early disasters distorted a very good week. Interestingly, Bryant had some reasonable form here from 2000-2003. I doubt he ever played a weaker field in those years, when he was nowhere near the accomplished Tour member that he has now become.
TED PURDY hasn't played a round at Avenel since a poor visit in 1999 but seeing as only the most devout golf afficionados had heard of Purdy until a couple of years ago I don't think its particularly relevant. Since winning his first event two seasons ago, Purdy has established himself as a steady, consistent Tour member who gets into contention once every couple of months. After a series of consistent if unspectacular efforts, he looks worth a punt to gain his first place since 5th at the prestigious Bay Hill in March.
I'm also taking another chance on CHARLEY HOFFMAN, who you may remember gave us a real run for our money at 250/1 recently. This emerging prospect has also seemed at his best on courses that reward his accurate long game, and he will also have taken a lot of positives out of his US Open debut. Hoffman was actually on the fringes of contention before a poor Saturday. Sunday's 73 was no disaster though so expect him to come here in good spirits.
Good Luck!
JOHNNIE WALKER CHAMPIONSHIP
6pts win PAUL CASEY @ 9/1 (GENERAL, 10/1 WITH LADBROKES)
1.5pts ew PAUL BROADHURST @ 25/1 (365, BETFRED, CORAL)
1pt ew FRANCESCO MOLINARI @ 50/1 (CORALS, PADDY POWER)
1pt ew ROSS FISHER @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
BOOZ ALLEN CLASSIC
1pt ew BART BRYANT @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew TED PURDY @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew CHARLEY HOFFMAN @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-93pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
Casey will also have been delighted with the weekend's efforts, finished superbly to make top-15 after opening with a 77. He has an extremely obvious chance on a course that he's won before back in 2001. Casey deserves some reward for several months of phenomenal consistency - he's finished no worse than 18th anywhere in the world since January. After the last-day disaster at The Belfry where he had the event won, question marks resurfaced about his bottle. In many ways this reminds me of David Howell's slow progress to the world's top-10. For 18 months, he was the most consistent player in Europe but just couldn't finish off tournaments. Eventually, he nailed an event in Germany last summer which proved the perfect springboard to move up to the highest level in world golf. If Casey continues to play as consistently as this, the rewards will come. We must keep the faith.
The other top player, Bjorn, could be interesting on a course he should like despite having never played it. But as always there's a huge element of guesswork about Bjorn's mindset, its surely better to go with players who didn't make the journey to the States to suffer golfing torture which is bound to have left its mark on confidence. Most obviously, PAUL BROADHURST has a great chance to gain some compensation for failing to qualify for Winged Foot. Enjoying his best form at least for a decade, Borady again played really well behind Robert Karlsson in Austria. A winner already in Portugal this year, knowing he likes the course from a 3rd place in 2003, he must surely be there or thereabouts over the weekend.
FRANCESCO MOLINARI can be forgiven a few disappointing efforts since that runaway debut win in his native Italian Open. Rookies always suffer from inconsistency, especially as they learn the regular courses, but confidence will surely be on a high playing on a course where he finished a fine 6th on his debut last year, Gleneagles has proved a good course for similar novice prospects in recent years - Adam Scott and Paul Casey were both very inexperienced when winning their titles.
Using a similar argument, it wouldn't surprise me at all if ROSS FISHER were a factor on his first main tour visit to Scotland. Over the winter on the South African and Australian tours, Fisher showed a similar level of extemely promising form as Molinari, particularly on classic courses like Fancourt. He lost nothing in defeat when a close 5th behind the vastly more experienced Bjorn, Casey and Clarke in the Irish Open last month, and will be in contention again before long.
Such is the mediocrity of the field for the Booz Allen Classic that it would come as no surprise if this were the week of the 250/1 outsider. Padraig Harrington had looked an extremely vulnerable favourite but now he and Bo Van Pelthas withdrawn, there's about 10 players vying for favouritism from 25/1 upwards. Of this bunch, the only one that strikes me as a likely contender is BART BRYANT. The key to success at Avenel is accuracy to the greens, and Bryant is one of the best in this department. 32nd doesn't really imply how well Bryant played at the US Open as a couple of early disasters distorted a very good week. Interestingly, Bryant had some reasonable form here from 2000-2003. I doubt he ever played a weaker field in those years, when he was nowhere near the accomplished Tour member that he has now become.
TED PURDY hasn't played a round at Avenel since a poor visit in 1999 but seeing as only the most devout golf afficionados had heard of Purdy until a couple of years ago I don't think its particularly relevant. Since winning his first event two seasons ago, Purdy has established himself as a steady, consistent Tour member who gets into contention once every couple of months. After a series of consistent if unspectacular efforts, he looks worth a punt to gain his first place since 5th at the prestigious Bay Hill in March.
I'm also taking another chance on CHARLEY HOFFMAN, who you may remember gave us a real run for our money at 250/1 recently. This emerging prospect has also seemed at his best on courses that reward his accurate long game, and he will also have taken a lot of positives out of his US Open debut. Hoffman was actually on the fringes of contention before a poor Saturday. Sunday's 73 was no disaster though so expect him to come here in good spirits.
Good Luck!
JOHNNIE WALKER CHAMPIONSHIP
6pts win PAUL CASEY @ 9/1 (GENERAL, 10/1 WITH LADBROKES)
1.5pts ew PAUL BROADHURST @ 25/1 (365, BETFRED, CORAL)
1pt ew FRANCESCO MOLINARI @ 50/1 (CORALS, PADDY POWER)
1pt ew ROSS FISHER @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
BOOZ ALLEN CLASSIC
1pt ew BART BRYANT @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew TED PURDY @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew CHARLEY HOFFMAN @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-93pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 4:56 PM
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