US Open Betting Preview
Despite the venue changing every year, you always know pretty much what to expect with the US Open. Extremely narrow fairways, penal rough both besides the fairway and close to the greens, which as long as it doesn't rain are guaranteed to be lightning fast by the weekend. The winner will have to possess patience and endurance in abundance, not to mention nerves of steel and a game with no weaknesses as mistakes will be punished.
Its no wonder with such precise qualities that certain types of player always seem to prosper while others are almost certain to go through their entire careers without ever challenging for a US Open. Ernie Els and Retief Goosen have four between them, for instance, yet neither player approaches the event with their games in anywhere close to full working order. Tiger Woods also has a pair of US Opens to his name, but is unsighted on a golf course since the Masters so form has to be taken on trust. It is also unlikely that, unless putting up a vastly improved driving performance than the norm for the last 2 years, he will enjoy such a narrow test. In the last Major held at Winged Foot, the 1997 USPGA, Tiger was back in 29th place. Nevertheless, it should be remembered that Woods has finished no worse than 5th in his last five majors.
However, I can't find a justification for Woods' price being shorter than PHIL MICKELSON, a man bidding for his third consecutive Major and for me, the best player in the world right now. Prior to 2004, Mickelson had already built up a bank of close finishes in the Majors, but his record since maturing is phenomenal and certainly not reflective of odds of over 7/1. In the 9 Majors since the start of 2004 his record is 3 wins and four more top-10s including very near misses in both 2004 Opens. His genius short game is always a huge asset on the toughest golf courses, as is a rare ability to bounce back quickly after a bad hole. And crucially for this of all events, he is the top-ranked player for greens in regulation in 2006. 3 times a runner-up at Shinnecock, Pinehurst and Bethpage, you'd think Lefty had a US Open in him somewhere. He's never got into one with a more obvious chance.
My long-range fancy for this event had been Jim Furyk, the 2003 champion. Unfortunately my enthusiasm has waned since he pulled out of last week's Barclays Classic with a neck injury. It has been reported that this was only precautionery, and Furyk's game is unaffected. Should his health prove no handicap, with his metronomically accurate game, he will surely be there or thereabouts. Rather than back him on the outright at short-odds under the circumstances, a better way of siding with Jim is to buy IG Sport's US hotshots. The scoring is 20pts for a top-10 finish, 20pts for a win and a 20pt bonus if all 4 players make the cut. Along with Furyk, our star-studded line up is completed by Mickelson, Tiger and David Toms and can be bougjht at 49. All 4 have big chances, in fact Toms was also strongly considered for the outright market.
Normally in Majors I play the top-American market when I fancy an Amercan longshot, but with Tiger and Mickelson both strong, the best way of backing AARON OBERHOLSER is in the outright market. Since his debut win at Pebble Beach in February, Oberholser has looked a regular winner waiting to happen. He went well for a long way at Augusta, before finishing a highly respectable 14th on his Masters debut, and was one of eight leaders in round 3 at Sawgrass before some disaster holes sent him spiralling down. Another player who ranks well in the crucial greens in regulation stats, and in good form with 4th place on his penultimate outing, there must be a decent prospect of Oberholser improving on promising 9th on last year's US Open debut.
Another young American who comes here in encouraging form is ZACH JOHNSON. Despite no show on his two previous appearances, I've long marked down Johnson as a future US Open winner. He possesses all the right steady, accurate traits required and has always looked to have a winning temperament when in contention. After two consecutive top-5 finishes before wisely taking a week off, I'm expecting a peak effort from Johnson this week. The best market to play is the "Without Woods and Mickelson" at 50/1.
With Els and Goosen out of form, the top Rest of the World market makes more appeal than usual. Here I like the chances of consistent South African TIM CLARK at 18/1. Prior to last week's disappointing run, Clark had looked a winner waiting to happen. He is yet another player with the perfect accurate game for US Open courses, a point proven by 13th and 3rd place in the last 2 years.
As well as Clark, Sawgrass winner STEPHEN AMES looks reasonable value at 20/1. Since that career highlight there's been three good efforts out of five, including 11th at the Masters and 4th at Colonial. Again, Ames fits the statistical profile of a US Open winner. In fact, he is also very high on my shortlist for next month's British Open. Finally for this market, KJ CHOI looks under-rated at 40/1. KJ has shown in various Majors that he enjoys the test of the toughest courses more than most and I doubt he'll be too far away.
As for top European, IAN POULTER absolutely stands out at 20/1. Despite disappointing on recent European ventures, Poulter's has been in cracking form this year in the US. He carried the fine form showed in US Open qualifying by finishing 9th at Westchester on Sunday, his second top-10 in three outings. This is amongst the best US form shown by any of the Europeans recently. The fact that he is ranked 3rd in driving accuracy will surely serve him in good stead here.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
US OPEN
8pts win PHIL MICKELSON @ 15/2 (PADDY POWER, BETFAIR)
1pt ew AARON OBERHOLSER @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
BETTING WITHOUT WOODS & MICKELSON
1pt ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 50/1 (SKYBET)
SPREADS
BUY US HOTSHOTS 10pts @ 49 (IGSPORT)
TOP REST OF THE WORLD
3pts ew TIM CLARK @ 18/1 (STAN JAMES 1/4 1-4)
2pts ew STEPHEN AMES @ 20/1 (CORAL 1/4 1-4) 1pt ew KJ CHOI @ 40/1 (CORAL)
TOP EUROPEAN
2pts ew IAN POULTER @ 22/1
2006 STATS: (-65pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
Its no wonder with such precise qualities that certain types of player always seem to prosper while others are almost certain to go through their entire careers without ever challenging for a US Open. Ernie Els and Retief Goosen have four between them, for instance, yet neither player approaches the event with their games in anywhere close to full working order. Tiger Woods also has a pair of US Opens to his name, but is unsighted on a golf course since the Masters so form has to be taken on trust. It is also unlikely that, unless putting up a vastly improved driving performance than the norm for the last 2 years, he will enjoy such a narrow test. In the last Major held at Winged Foot, the 1997 USPGA, Tiger was back in 29th place. Nevertheless, it should be remembered that Woods has finished no worse than 5th in his last five majors.
However, I can't find a justification for Woods' price being shorter than PHIL MICKELSON, a man bidding for his third consecutive Major and for me, the best player in the world right now. Prior to 2004, Mickelson had already built up a bank of close finishes in the Majors, but his record since maturing is phenomenal and certainly not reflective of odds of over 7/1. In the 9 Majors since the start of 2004 his record is 3 wins and four more top-10s including very near misses in both 2004 Opens. His genius short game is always a huge asset on the toughest golf courses, as is a rare ability to bounce back quickly after a bad hole. And crucially for this of all events, he is the top-ranked player for greens in regulation in 2006. 3 times a runner-up at Shinnecock, Pinehurst and Bethpage, you'd think Lefty had a US Open in him somewhere. He's never got into one with a more obvious chance.
My long-range fancy for this event had been Jim Furyk, the 2003 champion. Unfortunately my enthusiasm has waned since he pulled out of last week's Barclays Classic with a neck injury. It has been reported that this was only precautionery, and Furyk's game is unaffected. Should his health prove no handicap, with his metronomically accurate game, he will surely be there or thereabouts. Rather than back him on the outright at short-odds under the circumstances, a better way of siding with Jim is to buy IG Sport's US hotshots. The scoring is 20pts for a top-10 finish, 20pts for a win and a 20pt bonus if all 4 players make the cut. Along with Furyk, our star-studded line up is completed by Mickelson, Tiger and David Toms and can be bougjht at 49. All 4 have big chances, in fact Toms was also strongly considered for the outright market.
Normally in Majors I play the top-American market when I fancy an Amercan longshot, but with Tiger and Mickelson both strong, the best way of backing AARON OBERHOLSER is in the outright market. Since his debut win at Pebble Beach in February, Oberholser has looked a regular winner waiting to happen. He went well for a long way at Augusta, before finishing a highly respectable 14th on his Masters debut, and was one of eight leaders in round 3 at Sawgrass before some disaster holes sent him spiralling down. Another player who ranks well in the crucial greens in regulation stats, and in good form with 4th place on his penultimate outing, there must be a decent prospect of Oberholser improving on promising 9th on last year's US Open debut.
Another young American who comes here in encouraging form is ZACH JOHNSON. Despite no show on his two previous appearances, I've long marked down Johnson as a future US Open winner. He possesses all the right steady, accurate traits required and has always looked to have a winning temperament when in contention. After two consecutive top-5 finishes before wisely taking a week off, I'm expecting a peak effort from Johnson this week. The best market to play is the "Without Woods and Mickelson" at 50/1.
With Els and Goosen out of form, the top Rest of the World market makes more appeal than usual. Here I like the chances of consistent South African TIM CLARK at 18/1. Prior to last week's disappointing run, Clark had looked a winner waiting to happen. He is yet another player with the perfect accurate game for US Open courses, a point proven by 13th and 3rd place in the last 2 years.
As well as Clark, Sawgrass winner STEPHEN AMES looks reasonable value at 20/1. Since that career highlight there's been three good efforts out of five, including 11th at the Masters and 4th at Colonial. Again, Ames fits the statistical profile of a US Open winner. In fact, he is also very high on my shortlist for next month's British Open. Finally for this market, KJ CHOI looks under-rated at 40/1. KJ has shown in various Majors that he enjoys the test of the toughest courses more than most and I doubt he'll be too far away.
As for top European, IAN POULTER absolutely stands out at 20/1. Despite disappointing on recent European ventures, Poulter's has been in cracking form this year in the US. He carried the fine form showed in US Open qualifying by finishing 9th at Westchester on Sunday, his second top-10 in three outings. This is amongst the best US form shown by any of the Europeans recently. The fact that he is ranked 3rd in driving accuracy will surely serve him in good stead here.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
US OPEN
8pts win PHIL MICKELSON @ 15/2 (PADDY POWER, BETFAIR)
1pt ew AARON OBERHOLSER @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
BETTING WITHOUT WOODS & MICKELSON
1pt ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 50/1 (SKYBET)
SPREADS
BUY US HOTSHOTS 10pts @ 49 (IGSPORT)
TOP REST OF THE WORLD
3pts ew TIM CLARK @ 18/1 (STAN JAMES 1/4 1-4)
2pts ew STEPHEN AMES @ 20/1 (CORAL 1/4 1-4) 1pt ew KJ CHOI @ 40/1 (CORAL)
TOP EUROPEAN
2pts ew IAN POULTER @ 22/1
2006 STATS: (-65pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 5:18 PM
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