Furyk can warm-up for Open with Westchester win
Just a week to go until the US Open and still no sign of Tiger Woods on the PGA Tour. Punters and bookies will be forced into guesswork in assessing his chances at Winged Foot. Most of his potential rivals line up somewhere this week, though with bad weather forecast its not out of the question that some of the Americans pull out of the Barclays Classic.
I'm also extremely surprised to see the likes of Thomas Bjorn, Colin Montgomerie and Miguel-Angel Jiminez playing in the low-grade Austrian Open rather than acclimatising in the States. Needless to say, that trio dominate the market but it would take a brave and quite possibly stupid punter to back them at inhibited odds. Jiminez's woeful performance when defending the Wales Open last week served as a reminder of the dangers of backing favourites whose market position is entirely dependent on the weakness of their opponents. Monty put in his best performance in ages in Wales, but doesn't look an imminent winner by any means while Bjorn has a long track record of inconsistency and failing to deliver when expected to.
I suspect the bigger guns also will have one eye on next week's Major so the best strategy here must be to look for a couple of small bets at decent prices. Its not a long course, and previous course form was gained in considerably lower standard Challenge Tour events so there's a strong element of guesswork. At big prices, I like the look of TOM WHITEHOUSE and DAVID GRIFFITHS. First to Whitehouse, who is enjoying a fine first season on the main Tour and is widely rated as a decent prospect. His last seven starts have yielded 3 top-15 finishes in considerably better company which makes the 100/1 on offer look attractive. Griffiths did very well In consecutive weeks in May. 3rd in Spain having led going into the final round, starting that round in catastrophic fashion and coming back strongly was an excellent effort, followed up by 16th place in Italy hovering around the fringes of contention all week. With only two missed cuts all season, this level of tournament is certainly within his range.
The Barclays Classic represents an immeasurably higher standard of golf, with pretty much all of next week's contenders bar Tiger in attendance. As is usually the case, the warm-up for the US Open is played on a track which requires similar accurate qualities. There's a long history of tournaments at Westchester so we've got a bank of course form to work from. Of the big guns, Phil Mickelson's form here is only moderate while Ernie Els, Vijay Singh and Sergio Garcia are all previous winners with fine overall records. The problem with that trio is a lack of any recent form. Retief Goosen's form here is ordinary, and though he's almost certainly improved in the interim the Goose is generally seen to his best on tracks that reward his length rather than accuracy. Padraig Harrington defends his title, having finished runner-up the previous year but this is reflected in the price.
Despite letting me down last week, JIM FURYK must enter calculations once again. Metronomically accurate and therefore liable to hit the vast majority of the small greens here, Furyk has three top-3 finishes at Westchester and six top-20 finishes in 8 years. Surely he must win an event here at some stage in his career, and as he's enjoying arguably his best ever spell over the past year this looks as good a time as any. In any case, last week's relative failure was mostly due to a slow start after an unlucky draw so 18th was no disgrace.
Another player who looks bound to be suited by this course is LUKE DONALD. In the early stages of his career, few players have done me more financial favours than Donald, but this season has been frustrating as I missed his win at the Honda Classic. He was disappointing at Wentworth recently, but on reflection that had as much to do with the conditions as it did with his form. As a short-hitter, lengthened, rain-soaked Wentworth did resemble something of an unsuitable beast over the weekend.
Possessing a very similar, accurate profile, this looks another great opportunity for TIM CLARK to finally open his account in the States. A poor weekend at the Memorial ruined another winning chance, but there's never been any question over Clark's temperament, having won on various continents. It can only be a matter of time if his 2006 record is anything to go by, with four top-20s from his last 6 starts including 2nd at the Masters. Significantly, his last two Westchester visits have yielded top-12 finishes and Clark was also 7th recently at the Heritage Classic, another event where accuracy to small greens is paramount.
Good Luck!
AUSTRIAN OPEN
1pt ew DAVID GRIFFITHS @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew TOM WHITEHOUSE @ 100/1 (PADDY POWER)
BARCLAYS CLASSIC
3pts ew JIM FURYK @ 16/1 (STAN JAMES, PADDY POWER)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 33/1 (BET DIRECT, BLUESQ, TOTE, HILLS)
1pt ew TIM CLARK @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-60pts)2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
I'm also extremely surprised to see the likes of Thomas Bjorn, Colin Montgomerie and Miguel-Angel Jiminez playing in the low-grade Austrian Open rather than acclimatising in the States. Needless to say, that trio dominate the market but it would take a brave and quite possibly stupid punter to back them at inhibited odds. Jiminez's woeful performance when defending the Wales Open last week served as a reminder of the dangers of backing favourites whose market position is entirely dependent on the weakness of their opponents. Monty put in his best performance in ages in Wales, but doesn't look an imminent winner by any means while Bjorn has a long track record of inconsistency and failing to deliver when expected to.
I suspect the bigger guns also will have one eye on next week's Major so the best strategy here must be to look for a couple of small bets at decent prices. Its not a long course, and previous course form was gained in considerably lower standard Challenge Tour events so there's a strong element of guesswork. At big prices, I like the look of TOM WHITEHOUSE and DAVID GRIFFITHS. First to Whitehouse, who is enjoying a fine first season on the main Tour and is widely rated as a decent prospect. His last seven starts have yielded 3 top-15 finishes in considerably better company which makes the 100/1 on offer look attractive. Griffiths did very well In consecutive weeks in May. 3rd in Spain having led going into the final round, starting that round in catastrophic fashion and coming back strongly was an excellent effort, followed up by 16th place in Italy hovering around the fringes of contention all week. With only two missed cuts all season, this level of tournament is certainly within his range.
The Barclays Classic represents an immeasurably higher standard of golf, with pretty much all of next week's contenders bar Tiger in attendance. As is usually the case, the warm-up for the US Open is played on a track which requires similar accurate qualities. There's a long history of tournaments at Westchester so we've got a bank of course form to work from. Of the big guns, Phil Mickelson's form here is only moderate while Ernie Els, Vijay Singh and Sergio Garcia are all previous winners with fine overall records. The problem with that trio is a lack of any recent form. Retief Goosen's form here is ordinary, and though he's almost certainly improved in the interim the Goose is generally seen to his best on tracks that reward his length rather than accuracy. Padraig Harrington defends his title, having finished runner-up the previous year but this is reflected in the price.
Despite letting me down last week, JIM FURYK must enter calculations once again. Metronomically accurate and therefore liable to hit the vast majority of the small greens here, Furyk has three top-3 finishes at Westchester and six top-20 finishes in 8 years. Surely he must win an event here at some stage in his career, and as he's enjoying arguably his best ever spell over the past year this looks as good a time as any. In any case, last week's relative failure was mostly due to a slow start after an unlucky draw so 18th was no disgrace.
Another player who looks bound to be suited by this course is LUKE DONALD. In the early stages of his career, few players have done me more financial favours than Donald, but this season has been frustrating as I missed his win at the Honda Classic. He was disappointing at Wentworth recently, but on reflection that had as much to do with the conditions as it did with his form. As a short-hitter, lengthened, rain-soaked Wentworth did resemble something of an unsuitable beast over the weekend.
Possessing a very similar, accurate profile, this looks another great opportunity for TIM CLARK to finally open his account in the States. A poor weekend at the Memorial ruined another winning chance, but there's never been any question over Clark's temperament, having won on various continents. It can only be a matter of time if his 2006 record is anything to go by, with four top-20s from his last 6 starts including 2nd at the Masters. Significantly, his last two Westchester visits have yielded top-12 finishes and Clark was also 7th recently at the Heritage Classic, another event where accuracy to small greens is paramount.
Good Luck!
AUSTRIAN OPEN
1pt ew DAVID GRIFFITHS @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew TOM WHITEHOUSE @ 100/1 (PADDY POWER)
BARCLAYS CLASSIC
3pts ew JIM FURYK @ 16/1 (STAN JAMES, PADDY POWER)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 33/1 (BET DIRECT, BLUESQ, TOTE, HILLS)
1pt ew TIM CLARK @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-60pts)2005 STATS: +49.5pts
ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED
VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 3:37 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home