China Open Snooker Preview
After a long run of shock results, the snooker scene has become much more predictable in recent months. The last five tournaments have been shared between the top-class quartet of Ronnie O'Sullivan, Mark Selby, Stephen Maguire and Shaun Murphy, all of whom are expected to be major players at next month's season highlight, the 888.com World Championships.
In the meantime we've got the China Open which starts on Monday. For some players, especially those without serious ranking concerns, a tournament at this time of year represents an inconvenient interruption in their practice regime for the big one. When the Scottish Open was held at this time of year we saw some extremely unlikely results, and last year's Graeme Dott/Jamie Cope final in this event could hardly be described as obvious. I particularly doubt we'll see a fully focussed and motivated Ronnie O'Sullivan.
The crucial punting angle this week is an extremely lop-sided draw. Of the 'big 6' - those four recent winners, world champ John Higgins and home favourite Ding Junhui - five are in the bottom half of the draw. Besides them, the bottom half also contains live contenders Neil Robertson, Marco Fu and capable outsiders like Ali Carter and Stuart Bingham.
Maguire is the only one in the top half, and he is another who its generally sensible to avoid until his motivation level is known. Its easy to imagine the Scot sailing through to the final, and just as easy to imagine him losing badly in the first-round. My strategy, then, is to throw a few alternative each-way darts from the top-half in the hope that I'll have a couple of representatives in the quarter-finals and beyond.
My main selection is the one player in the top-half with the twin qualities of good recent form, and being somebody who can always be relied upon to give 100% wherever, or whenever the game. Earlier in the year, KEN DOHERTY had looked on a downward spiral, but from the Masters onwards he's bounced back well. He followed up on an impressive semi-final appearance at Wembley by making the final in Malta. Mike Dunn looks a straightforward opponent to begin so his odds are likely to shorten from 18/1.
There are other capable players in Doherty's section, though none make any punting appeal until we've got a clearer idea which will emerge. For instance, Ken's second match would be a tricky one against either Ryan Day or Matthew Stevens. Day starts favourite here, but has let me down too many times this season. Its hard to take a strong opinion about this match until we know which Stevens will turn up. Throughout most of the season, Stevens has looked a very pale shadow of the player who reached two world finals, but he didn't do a lot wrong when we recently opposed him in the final qualifying round for Sheffield.
Stevens is fighting for his career, and could be dangerous for that reason alone. Another Welshman in a similar bind is Mark Williams, who has won this event before. Also in Doherty's quarter, Williams is capable of emerging but no more so than equally out-of-form opponents Peter Ebdon and Jamie Cope. Once again, lets see how the opening exchanges go before having any further bets.
If Maguire is to be opposed in the top quarter, then just about anyone in the section could make the semis. Stephen Hendry remains vulnerable, but while I toyed with backing his first-round opponent Barry Hawkins there's not much in his recent portfolio to recommend. Instead the two I like for each-way purposes are STEPHEN LEE and FERGAL O'BRIEN at 50/1 and 125/1 respectively.
Its been a long time since I backed Lee, but he's done enough recently to expect a comfortable first-round win over Nigel Bond. Following that he's scheduled to meet defending champion Dott, a player Lee has a fine head-to-head record against. As for O'Brien, on his day he's a match for anyone as O'Sullivan found to his cost earlier in the year. If he beats his dangerous Chinese wild-card opponent in the preliminary round, Fergal could present a very tricky first-round opponent for Maguire.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
4pts ew KEN DOHERTY @ 18/1 (BET365, BETDIRECT, STAN JAMES)
2pts ew STEPHEN LEE @ 50/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew FERGAL O'BRIEN @ 100/1 (GENERAL, 125/1 CORALS)
In the meantime we've got the China Open which starts on Monday. For some players, especially those without serious ranking concerns, a tournament at this time of year represents an inconvenient interruption in their practice regime for the big one. When the Scottish Open was held at this time of year we saw some extremely unlikely results, and last year's Graeme Dott/Jamie Cope final in this event could hardly be described as obvious. I particularly doubt we'll see a fully focussed and motivated Ronnie O'Sullivan.
The crucial punting angle this week is an extremely lop-sided draw. Of the 'big 6' - those four recent winners, world champ John Higgins and home favourite Ding Junhui - five are in the bottom half of the draw. Besides them, the bottom half also contains live contenders Neil Robertson, Marco Fu and capable outsiders like Ali Carter and Stuart Bingham.
Maguire is the only one in the top half, and he is another who its generally sensible to avoid until his motivation level is known. Its easy to imagine the Scot sailing through to the final, and just as easy to imagine him losing badly in the first-round. My strategy, then, is to throw a few alternative each-way darts from the top-half in the hope that I'll have a couple of representatives in the quarter-finals and beyond.
My main selection is the one player in the top-half with the twin qualities of good recent form, and being somebody who can always be relied upon to give 100% wherever, or whenever the game. Earlier in the year, KEN DOHERTY had looked on a downward spiral, but from the Masters onwards he's bounced back well. He followed up on an impressive semi-final appearance at Wembley by making the final in Malta. Mike Dunn looks a straightforward opponent to begin so his odds are likely to shorten from 18/1.
There are other capable players in Doherty's section, though none make any punting appeal until we've got a clearer idea which will emerge. For instance, Ken's second match would be a tricky one against either Ryan Day or Matthew Stevens. Day starts favourite here, but has let me down too many times this season. Its hard to take a strong opinion about this match until we know which Stevens will turn up. Throughout most of the season, Stevens has looked a very pale shadow of the player who reached two world finals, but he didn't do a lot wrong when we recently opposed him in the final qualifying round for Sheffield.
Stevens is fighting for his career, and could be dangerous for that reason alone. Another Welshman in a similar bind is Mark Williams, who has won this event before. Also in Doherty's quarter, Williams is capable of emerging but no more so than equally out-of-form opponents Peter Ebdon and Jamie Cope. Once again, lets see how the opening exchanges go before having any further bets.
If Maguire is to be opposed in the top quarter, then just about anyone in the section could make the semis. Stephen Hendry remains vulnerable, but while I toyed with backing his first-round opponent Barry Hawkins there's not much in his recent portfolio to recommend. Instead the two I like for each-way purposes are STEPHEN LEE and FERGAL O'BRIEN at 50/1 and 125/1 respectively.
Its been a long time since I backed Lee, but he's done enough recently to expect a comfortable first-round win over Nigel Bond. Following that he's scheduled to meet defending champion Dott, a player Lee has a fine head-to-head record against. As for O'Brien, on his day he's a match for anyone as O'Sullivan found to his cost earlier in the year. If he beats his dangerous Chinese wild-card opponent in the preliminary round, Fergal could present a very tricky first-round opponent for Maguire.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
4pts ew KEN DOHERTY @ 18/1 (BET365, BETDIRECT, STAN JAMES)
2pts ew STEPHEN LEE @ 50/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew FERGAL O'BRIEN @ 100/1 (GENERAL, 125/1 CORALS)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 6:29 AM
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