Betting Preview for Next Deputy Labour Leader
Its perhaps not surprising that media and betting interest on this contest has been patchy so far. We are after all talking about a position that wields little real political power, and if media reports are to be believed the post may not even carry the title of Deputy Prime Minister. But with the Labour leadership settled without a contest, this is the only election in town and as far as betting is concerned, why should we care about the relevance of the job? This is in fact a cracking contest, with few obvious pointers to help pick the winner. Things could hot up over the next week or so with a live Newsnight debate televised on Tuesday, following this weekend’s extensive hustings. At present its possible to make a case for all six contenders, and I’m far from convinced that the current odds are even close to the correct mark.
Obviously, the key is trying to ascertain opinion within the various sections of the Labour movement that make up the electoral college. There are three sections, the first consisting of 356 MPs and 19 MEPs, the second individual Labour party members and the final third made up of over 3M individual members of trade unions affiliated to the Labour Party.
We know plenty about the first section, as 351 of the 375 voters have already expressed a first preference at the nomination stage. On the already stated first preferences, the current percentage tally is as follows:
JOHNSON: 23%
HARMAN: 19%
HAIN: 15%
CRUDDAS: 14%
BLEARS: 14%
BENN: 14%
However, with voters ordering all six candidates in order of preferences much can change once votes are transferred from losing candidates. In fact, the key to winning this contest could be more than simply having many strong supporters, rather to avoid unpopularity with a particular faction. Gaining lots of second and third preference votes could be a winning strategy. Also bearing in mind that few of these have held high office, name recognition is likely to be a major factor.
The party membership is particularly hard to predict. Hundreds of thousands have left in recent years, and those that remain are unlikely to fit a clearly defined ideological profile. Groups like the Fabian Society, Labour students and the Christian Socialist Movement, not to mention the unions, have a diverse set of aims and interests. Its also important to remember that many people will have more than one vote in the contest. Many Labour members will also be trade unionists so will get a vote in both sections. As the Guardian pointed out last week, in extreme cases some MPs could actually wield up to half a dozen votes.
No doubt the union vote will be critical. 3.2 members are eligible under one member, one vote, but turnout is expected to be derisory. The open question is how influential the support of union leaders and political committees will be. Clearly their influence is incomparable to the days of union block votes, but I wouldn’t underestimate it. I’m sure the union leaderships and memberships will have taken this very seriously and weighed up all the candidates, who no doubt have been working hard over the past year to make their pitch to this critical section of their electorate. So taking all this into account, here’s my assessment of the chances of each candidate.
ALAN JOHNSON
Judging by the first preferences of MPs and MEPs, the Education Secretary looks a strong favourite. Johnson enjoys as great a media profile as anyone else in the field, and is widely seen as a ‘safe pair of hands’, a working-class former postman capable of uniting both ‘Old’ and ‘New’ Labour, if such terms are still relevant. This may well have played a part in securing the influential nominations of previous incumbent and party favourite John Prescott, plus rising Blairite star David Miliband. His only problem may be hostility from some of the private sector unions, who have accused him of ‘selling out’. Head of the giant Unite organisation Derek Simpson has been venomous about Johnson’s apparent indifference to the loss of manufacturing jobs. On the other hand, Johnson has the backing of the union he used to head, the Communication Workers Union, and is rumoured to enjoy strong support within pivotal public sector union, UNISON. The Hull-West MP looks very much the favourite in my view, and worthy of shorter odds than at present.
CURRENT ODDS: 2/1
HILARY BENN
Currently rated as favourite after steady support in recent days, probably on the basis of some unreliable polls. The son of Labour legend Tony certainly has strong name recognition, and is no doubt widely respected throughout the party. As International Development Secretary, Benn has had an easier ride than other candidates. However, he has so far run a lacklustre campaign in comparison to some very eager rivals, culminating in a struggle to obtain enough parliamentary support to get on the ballot paper. Notably, Benn has also failed to win the backing of any of the union leaderships so could also be right up against it in that crucial section. The current price around 6/4 is way too short and I strongly advise laying on Betfair.
CURRENT ODDS: 7/4
HARRIET HARMAN
Harman has her share of critics, and hasn’t always enjoyed the best media profile, but is mounting a strong challenge nonetheless. Judging by the names of her supporters, she looks to be the favoured Brownite candidate, enough to put her in clear second place among MPs as far as nominations are concerned. Her list of endorsements also suggest strong support in local government. Notably, Harman made another pitch recently to female party members by promising to address the ‘gender gap’ in wages across local govt. Her husband Jack Dromey is also a very well respected former Union leader which could help in that section.
Many people believe Labour will be best served by a female deputy, not only to further gender equality but to soften the dour, ‘clunking fist’ image of Brown. Harman was involved closely with long-time ally Brown over childcare initiatives like Sure Start, a certain theme of his Premiership and next election campaign. Not the favourite by any means, but perhaps the biggest danger to Johnson.
CURRENT ODDS: 8/1
HAZEL BLEARS
I must be honest and confess I’d had Blears down as a complete no-hoper on the basis of some embarrassing TV performances, but I am slowly amending this view. By all accounts, she has fared best of all the candidates at the hustings so far. The post of Labour deputy is a fairly meaningless one, perfect in its way for an ultra-loyal cheerleader like Blears. As party chair she will enjoy widespread name recognition throughout the party. On the negative side, she is seen as a Blairite with the support of several distinctly Blairite Ministers. Presumably this will alienate party members desperate for a new direction, and is unlikely to help gain union support though she has secured the backing of Usdaw, the shop workers’ union. Her critical battle is with Harman, to emerge as the best placed female and win the votes of those who want a female deputy.
CURRENT ODDS: 11/1
JON CRUDDAS
Cruddas has been running the most interesting and distinctive campaign so far. Whereas the other five are known as government loyalists, he is the only candidate who departs from this self-congratulatory line. He has been speaking passionately and consistently for months about the need for the party - £24M in debt, membership and vote in freefall - to re-engage with its membership and core vote. His call for stronger rights for agency workers and building more social housing would certainly win my vote if I had one, and explains the support Cruddas has received from the giant merged union, UNITE.
However, I doubt how much resonance this message has within the wider Labour membership, let alone the MPs/MEPs section where he looks certain to struggle. The Blair years have inevitably alienated the Old Left who would have been receptive to this message, but also more progressive soft-Left elements. My suspicion is that the current party membership is more Blairite than ever, after so many defected over Iraq and privatisations. That Cruddas, who worked closely with No 10 for years, has been portrayed as ‘Old Labour’ doesn’t augur well for his chances and he will also have a problem with name recognition.
CURRENT ODDS: 10/1
PETER HAIN
The Northern Ireland secretary, a veteran of the anti-apartheid movement, is best-priced with the bookies at 14/1. He struggled for first choice nominations in the MPs/MEPs college with a similar number to Blears, Benn and Cruddas but shouldn’t be written off just yet. Nobody has been campaigning harder for this job than Hain, who in particular has been courting the unions extensively for years. It seems to be paying dividends having gained the support of ASLEF, the Bakers, Food and Allied Workers’ Union plus two regions of the GMB.
A regular fluent media performer who will have little problem with name recognition, Hain also has a strong political base in Wales, home to a significant proportion of Labour members. It was notable that Hain picked up a defector from Cruddas camp at the weekend, fellow Welsh MP Paul Flynn. I reckon he will emerge as the most popular ‘left’ candidate, and could yet be the biggest threat to Johnson.
CURRENT ODDS: 14/1
ADVISED BETS
LAY HILARY BENN 20pts @ 2/1 or less (BETFAIR)
20pts ALAN JOHNSON @ 2/1 (SKYBET)
5pts HARRIET HARMAN @ 8/1 (HILLS)
5pts PETER HAIN @ 14/1 (HILLS, PADDY POWER)
Obviously, the key is trying to ascertain opinion within the various sections of the Labour movement that make up the electoral college. There are three sections, the first consisting of 356 MPs and 19 MEPs, the second individual Labour party members and the final third made up of over 3M individual members of trade unions affiliated to the Labour Party.
We know plenty about the first section, as 351 of the 375 voters have already expressed a first preference at the nomination stage. On the already stated first preferences, the current percentage tally is as follows:
JOHNSON: 23%
HARMAN: 19%
HAIN: 15%
CRUDDAS: 14%
BLEARS: 14%
BENN: 14%
However, with voters ordering all six candidates in order of preferences much can change once votes are transferred from losing candidates. In fact, the key to winning this contest could be more than simply having many strong supporters, rather to avoid unpopularity with a particular faction. Gaining lots of second and third preference votes could be a winning strategy. Also bearing in mind that few of these have held high office, name recognition is likely to be a major factor.
The party membership is particularly hard to predict. Hundreds of thousands have left in recent years, and those that remain are unlikely to fit a clearly defined ideological profile. Groups like the Fabian Society, Labour students and the Christian Socialist Movement, not to mention the unions, have a diverse set of aims and interests. Its also important to remember that many people will have more than one vote in the contest. Many Labour members will also be trade unionists so will get a vote in both sections. As the Guardian pointed out last week, in extreme cases some MPs could actually wield up to half a dozen votes.
No doubt the union vote will be critical. 3.2 members are eligible under one member, one vote, but turnout is expected to be derisory. The open question is how influential the support of union leaders and political committees will be. Clearly their influence is incomparable to the days of union block votes, but I wouldn’t underestimate it. I’m sure the union leaderships and memberships will have taken this very seriously and weighed up all the candidates, who no doubt have been working hard over the past year to make their pitch to this critical section of their electorate. So taking all this into account, here’s my assessment of the chances of each candidate.
ALAN JOHNSON
Judging by the first preferences of MPs and MEPs, the Education Secretary looks a strong favourite. Johnson enjoys as great a media profile as anyone else in the field, and is widely seen as a ‘safe pair of hands’, a working-class former postman capable of uniting both ‘Old’ and ‘New’ Labour, if such terms are still relevant. This may well have played a part in securing the influential nominations of previous incumbent and party favourite John Prescott, plus rising Blairite star David Miliband. His only problem may be hostility from some of the private sector unions, who have accused him of ‘selling out’. Head of the giant Unite organisation Derek Simpson has been venomous about Johnson’s apparent indifference to the loss of manufacturing jobs. On the other hand, Johnson has the backing of the union he used to head, the Communication Workers Union, and is rumoured to enjoy strong support within pivotal public sector union, UNISON. The Hull-West MP looks very much the favourite in my view, and worthy of shorter odds than at present.
CURRENT ODDS: 2/1
HILARY BENN
Currently rated as favourite after steady support in recent days, probably on the basis of some unreliable polls. The son of Labour legend Tony certainly has strong name recognition, and is no doubt widely respected throughout the party. As International Development Secretary, Benn has had an easier ride than other candidates. However, he has so far run a lacklustre campaign in comparison to some very eager rivals, culminating in a struggle to obtain enough parliamentary support to get on the ballot paper. Notably, Benn has also failed to win the backing of any of the union leaderships so could also be right up against it in that crucial section. The current price around 6/4 is way too short and I strongly advise laying on Betfair.
CURRENT ODDS: 7/4
HARRIET HARMAN
Harman has her share of critics, and hasn’t always enjoyed the best media profile, but is mounting a strong challenge nonetheless. Judging by the names of her supporters, she looks to be the favoured Brownite candidate, enough to put her in clear second place among MPs as far as nominations are concerned. Her list of endorsements also suggest strong support in local government. Notably, Harman made another pitch recently to female party members by promising to address the ‘gender gap’ in wages across local govt. Her husband Jack Dromey is also a very well respected former Union leader which could help in that section.
Many people believe Labour will be best served by a female deputy, not only to further gender equality but to soften the dour, ‘clunking fist’ image of Brown. Harman was involved closely with long-time ally Brown over childcare initiatives like Sure Start, a certain theme of his Premiership and next election campaign. Not the favourite by any means, but perhaps the biggest danger to Johnson.
CURRENT ODDS: 8/1
HAZEL BLEARS
I must be honest and confess I’d had Blears down as a complete no-hoper on the basis of some embarrassing TV performances, but I am slowly amending this view. By all accounts, she has fared best of all the candidates at the hustings so far. The post of Labour deputy is a fairly meaningless one, perfect in its way for an ultra-loyal cheerleader like Blears. As party chair she will enjoy widespread name recognition throughout the party. On the negative side, she is seen as a Blairite with the support of several distinctly Blairite Ministers. Presumably this will alienate party members desperate for a new direction, and is unlikely to help gain union support though she has secured the backing of Usdaw, the shop workers’ union. Her critical battle is with Harman, to emerge as the best placed female and win the votes of those who want a female deputy.
CURRENT ODDS: 11/1
JON CRUDDAS
Cruddas has been running the most interesting and distinctive campaign so far. Whereas the other five are known as government loyalists, he is the only candidate who departs from this self-congratulatory line. He has been speaking passionately and consistently for months about the need for the party - £24M in debt, membership and vote in freefall - to re-engage with its membership and core vote. His call for stronger rights for agency workers and building more social housing would certainly win my vote if I had one, and explains the support Cruddas has received from the giant merged union, UNITE.
However, I doubt how much resonance this message has within the wider Labour membership, let alone the MPs/MEPs section where he looks certain to struggle. The Blair years have inevitably alienated the Old Left who would have been receptive to this message, but also more progressive soft-Left elements. My suspicion is that the current party membership is more Blairite than ever, after so many defected over Iraq and privatisations. That Cruddas, who worked closely with No 10 for years, has been portrayed as ‘Old Labour’ doesn’t augur well for his chances and he will also have a problem with name recognition.
CURRENT ODDS: 10/1
PETER HAIN
The Northern Ireland secretary, a veteran of the anti-apartheid movement, is best-priced with the bookies at 14/1. He struggled for first choice nominations in the MPs/MEPs college with a similar number to Blears, Benn and Cruddas but shouldn’t be written off just yet. Nobody has been campaigning harder for this job than Hain, who in particular has been courting the unions extensively for years. It seems to be paying dividends having gained the support of ASLEF, the Bakers, Food and Allied Workers’ Union plus two regions of the GMB.
A regular fluent media performer who will have little problem with name recognition, Hain also has a strong political base in Wales, home to a significant proportion of Labour members. It was notable that Hain picked up a defector from Cruddas camp at the weekend, fellow Welsh MP Paul Flynn. I reckon he will emerge as the most popular ‘left’ candidate, and could yet be the biggest threat to Johnson.
CURRENT ODDS: 14/1
ADVISED BETS
LAY HILARY BENN 20pts @ 2/1 or less (BETFAIR)
20pts ALAN JOHNSON @ 2/1 (SKYBET)
5pts HARRIET HARMAN @ 8/1 (HILLS)
5pts PETER HAIN @ 14/1 (HILLS, PADDY POWER)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 6:46 AM
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