UK Championship Snooker Betting Preview
The second biggest event of the year behind the World Championship starts tomorrow at a new venue in Telford, after several years at the York Barbican Centre. While snooker has become the No 1 sport for backing outsiders in recent years, these two events usually buck the trend due to the longer matches (each round is best of 17 as opposed to the usual best of 9). Since 1980, the only UK Champion who could be described as a shock winner was Doug Mountjoy back in 1988. Even when the winner hasn't been seeded - Stephen Maguire in 2004, Ding Junhui in 2005 for instance - the result could hardly be seen as an upset and both were favourites by the latter stages of the event.
As usual the most consistently unreliable favourite in the history of betting, Ronnie O'Sullivan, starts at prohibitively short odds of less than 4/1. I'm not reading anything at all into Ronnie's Premier League win last week, as he has proven time and again that he is virtually unbeatable in that quick format. As far as ranking tournaments are concerned, its now getting on for three years since he last won which makes a mockery of this week's odds. I wouldn't lay him yet, however, as his first couple of matches look straightforward. Better to wait until the quarter-finals where he potentially would have to face world champ John Higgins, at which stage those odds will probably be below 2/1 as punters over-react to the earlier easy wins.
For betting purposes I much prefer the top-half of the draw, where three players are strongly fancied to have it between them. In the second section, by far the likeliest quarter-final would be between SHAUN MURPHY and Ding Junhui. I'd make that game a real 50/50 affair, an estimate not reflected in the outright market where Murphy is three points bigger at 10/1. There's nothing in the last year's form to justify this - Ding hasn't won or done much at all in any 2007 ranking event, whereas Murphy reached the semis five times in 2007 and won the Welsh Open. The 2005 World Champion hasn't enjoyed the best of luck in those semi-finals, losing to both O'Sullivan and Mark Selby by the odd frame having held commanding leads. He's due a change of luck, and should have little trouble winning two straightforward opening games to reach the quarters at which point I doubt anything like 10/1 will be available.
Both Murphy and Ding were eliminated in Northern Ireland by the resurgent STEPHEN MAGUIRE. Maguire, the 14th different winner from the last 17 ranking events, at last looks back to the form of 2004 when he was being widely tipped as the game's next big thing. That year, Maguire won this tournament impressively with only first round victim O'Sullivan giving him a hard match. At his best, there are very few players who can live with the Scot (though when betting it must also be considered that at his worst, Maguire can be awful). If he can maintain his form over the next week, I strongly fancy him to emerge from the top quarter.
The big danger to Maguire in this quarter is defending champion Peter Ebdon. Considering that Ebdon has always been a much better player over longer matches, he may well improve on some reasonable efforts so far this season and certainly makes more betting appeal than the declining Stephen Hendry or Mark Williams. I still doubt he'll be able to live with a peak-form Maguire though, and Ebdon also came out clearly second-best to Murphy in Belfast.
The third quarter looks the hardest to predict. Neil Robertson would be the pick on last season's form, but needs to improve dramatically on recent efforts, as does former world champion Graeme Dott. Grand Prix winner Marco Fu is unlikely to reproduce those unpredictable heroics anytime soon, though will still be a tough first-round opponent for the emerging Ryan Day. My pick in this section is world-finalist MARK SELBY who looks the best player without a recent win now that Maguire has got that monkey off his back. The fact that Selby, a very slow player, has produced his best snooker over the longer matches could be a good sign.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
8pts win SHAUN MURPHY @ 10/1 (CORALS, TOTE, BETFAIR)
8pts win STEPHEN MAGUIRE @ 10/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 11.5 ON BETFAIR)
4pts ew MARK SELBY @ 25/1 (LADBROKES)
As usual the most consistently unreliable favourite in the history of betting, Ronnie O'Sullivan, starts at prohibitively short odds of less than 4/1. I'm not reading anything at all into Ronnie's Premier League win last week, as he has proven time and again that he is virtually unbeatable in that quick format. As far as ranking tournaments are concerned, its now getting on for three years since he last won which makes a mockery of this week's odds. I wouldn't lay him yet, however, as his first couple of matches look straightforward. Better to wait until the quarter-finals where he potentially would have to face world champ John Higgins, at which stage those odds will probably be below 2/1 as punters over-react to the earlier easy wins.
For betting purposes I much prefer the top-half of the draw, where three players are strongly fancied to have it between them. In the second section, by far the likeliest quarter-final would be between SHAUN MURPHY and Ding Junhui. I'd make that game a real 50/50 affair, an estimate not reflected in the outright market where Murphy is three points bigger at 10/1. There's nothing in the last year's form to justify this - Ding hasn't won or done much at all in any 2007 ranking event, whereas Murphy reached the semis five times in 2007 and won the Welsh Open. The 2005 World Champion hasn't enjoyed the best of luck in those semi-finals, losing to both O'Sullivan and Mark Selby by the odd frame having held commanding leads. He's due a change of luck, and should have little trouble winning two straightforward opening games to reach the quarters at which point I doubt anything like 10/1 will be available.
Both Murphy and Ding were eliminated in Northern Ireland by the resurgent STEPHEN MAGUIRE. Maguire, the 14th different winner from the last 17 ranking events, at last looks back to the form of 2004 when he was being widely tipped as the game's next big thing. That year, Maguire won this tournament impressively with only first round victim O'Sullivan giving him a hard match. At his best, there are very few players who can live with the Scot (though when betting it must also be considered that at his worst, Maguire can be awful). If he can maintain his form over the next week, I strongly fancy him to emerge from the top quarter.
The big danger to Maguire in this quarter is defending champion Peter Ebdon. Considering that Ebdon has always been a much better player over longer matches, he may well improve on some reasonable efforts so far this season and certainly makes more betting appeal than the declining Stephen Hendry or Mark Williams. I still doubt he'll be able to live with a peak-form Maguire though, and Ebdon also came out clearly second-best to Murphy in Belfast.
The third quarter looks the hardest to predict. Neil Robertson would be the pick on last season's form, but needs to improve dramatically on recent efforts, as does former world champion Graeme Dott. Grand Prix winner Marco Fu is unlikely to reproduce those unpredictable heroics anytime soon, though will still be a tough first-round opponent for the emerging Ryan Day. My pick in this section is world-finalist MARK SELBY who looks the best player without a recent win now that Maguire has got that monkey off his back. The fact that Selby, a very slow player, has produced his best snooker over the longer matches could be a good sign.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
8pts win SHAUN MURPHY @ 10/1 (CORALS, TOTE, BETFAIR)
8pts win STEPHEN MAGUIRE @ 10/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 11.5 ON BETFAIR)
4pts ew MARK SELBY @ 25/1 (LADBROKES)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 7:58 AM
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