Grand Prix Snooker Preview
This ranking tournament starts on Saturday from Aberdeen, with its unique format retained from last year. To begin, 48 players are split into eight groups of six. Groups are decided on a league basis over best of seven frame matches. The top two from each group qualify for the last-16, when a normal knockout draw comes into operation.
Because we can only predict a limited amount about the draw, early betting is very tricky. As I've mentioned before, no sport has become better for backing outsiders than snooker. And if last year's event was anything to go by, this could be the best of the lot for that strategy. The four semi-finalists were NEIL ROBERTSON, who went on to win his first tournament success, and three outsiders in the form of Jamie Cope, Mark King and Alan McManus.
The main reason is this early best-of-7 format. Over matches as short as that, upsets must be expected. So I expect to be incrementally adding to the portfolio as I go along. To start though, I have four selections, all of whom I'd expect to be trading much shorter should they progress beyond the group stages.
Looking through the groups, the best draw may have gone to the continually under-rated MARK SELBY. Selby will surely win his first tournament soon, having reached the World final and semis in this season's only event so far in China. He looks likely to qualify from a moderate group including Peter Ebdon, Matthew Stevens, Joe Delaney, Dave Harold and Liu Song. The key here is that Ebdon and Stevens are both very much players suited to longer formats, and in any case Ebdon usually starts the season slowly. Delaney should be outclassed, while Harold and the lesser known Song must be outsiders.
Robbo has questions to answer after some very poor showings in the Premier League, but could well bounce back in familiar surroundings. His group opponents don't look very fearsome, particularly Jimmy Michie and Mark Davis. Stephen Lee, Joe Swail and Joe Perry are more capable but all well below the Australian's high standards.
A player fitting a similar profile to last year's finalists Robbo and Cope is MARK ALLEN. The Northern Irishman is a superstar in the making, as he showed at the Crucible last year. He could well step up a level very quickly now and open his account in a ranking tournament of this stature. As far as his group opponents are concerned, he won't fear Ken Doherty whom he beat at the Crucible, nor the declining Mark Williams. And Allen is at least the match of Ian McCulloch, Michael Judge or Ricky Walden.
And while he has become an incredibly expensive player to follow, ALI CARTER looks under-rated at 66/1. If he hadn't lost a deciding frame to Selby at Sheffield there's every chance he would have been a serious challenger for the world title. He was very consistent in the second half of last season, suggesting an overdue breakthrough win was imminent.
Good Luck!
4pts NEIL ROBERTSON @ 18/1 (BOYLESPORTS, PADDY POWER)
4pts MARK SELBY @ 20/1 (BOYLESPORTS, TOTE)
1pt ew ALASTAIR CARTER @ 66/1 (TOTE, VCBET, 80/1 HILLS)
1pt ew MARK ALLEN @ 66/1 (GENERAL, 80/1 CENTREBET)
Because we can only predict a limited amount about the draw, early betting is very tricky. As I've mentioned before, no sport has become better for backing outsiders than snooker. And if last year's event was anything to go by, this could be the best of the lot for that strategy. The four semi-finalists were NEIL ROBERTSON, who went on to win his first tournament success, and three outsiders in the form of Jamie Cope, Mark King and Alan McManus.
The main reason is this early best-of-7 format. Over matches as short as that, upsets must be expected. So I expect to be incrementally adding to the portfolio as I go along. To start though, I have four selections, all of whom I'd expect to be trading much shorter should they progress beyond the group stages.
Looking through the groups, the best draw may have gone to the continually under-rated MARK SELBY. Selby will surely win his first tournament soon, having reached the World final and semis in this season's only event so far in China. He looks likely to qualify from a moderate group including Peter Ebdon, Matthew Stevens, Joe Delaney, Dave Harold and Liu Song. The key here is that Ebdon and Stevens are both very much players suited to longer formats, and in any case Ebdon usually starts the season slowly. Delaney should be outclassed, while Harold and the lesser known Song must be outsiders.
Robbo has questions to answer after some very poor showings in the Premier League, but could well bounce back in familiar surroundings. His group opponents don't look very fearsome, particularly Jimmy Michie and Mark Davis. Stephen Lee, Joe Swail and Joe Perry are more capable but all well below the Australian's high standards.
A player fitting a similar profile to last year's finalists Robbo and Cope is MARK ALLEN. The Northern Irishman is a superstar in the making, as he showed at the Crucible last year. He could well step up a level very quickly now and open his account in a ranking tournament of this stature. As far as his group opponents are concerned, he won't fear Ken Doherty whom he beat at the Crucible, nor the declining Mark Williams. And Allen is at least the match of Ian McCulloch, Michael Judge or Ricky Walden.
And while he has become an incredibly expensive player to follow, ALI CARTER looks under-rated at 66/1. If he hadn't lost a deciding frame to Selby at Sheffield there's every chance he would have been a serious challenger for the world title. He was very consistent in the second half of last season, suggesting an overdue breakthrough win was imminent.
Good Luck!
4pts NEIL ROBERTSON @ 18/1 (BOYLESPORTS, PADDY POWER)
4pts MARK SELBY @ 20/1 (BOYLESPORTS, TOTE)
1pt ew ALASTAIR CARTER @ 66/1 (TOTE, VCBET, 80/1 HILLS)
1pt ew MARK ALLEN @ 66/1 (GENERAL, 80/1 CENTREBET)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 6:37 AM
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