Cricket World Cup Betting Preview
There is a certain school of thought that the World Cup, that begins on Tuesday, is played over too long a period. Certainly this is a marathon, with 51 matches spread over 6 weeks, and I can understand how the non-gambling cricket connoiseur might find some of the less competitive first phase matches a little tiresome. But if you love both cricket and gambling, this is heaven. Australia vs Scotland may be an entirely predictable result and no-contest, but any experienced gambler knows there is plenty of fun to be had playing the top batman, handicap, or total runs markets, not to mention the dozens of spreads available on each and every game. Its also a chance to see numerous cricketing legends in their final major tournament, including Brian Lara, Sachin Tendulkar, Glenn McGrath and Adam Gilchrist. There are so many potential value bets on offer, the best way to go about this is to assess each of the major teams individually, with reference to their overall chance and the speciality markets that apply to that team only as well.
AUSTRALIA
Ever since their facile defence in South Africa 4 years ago, the Australians have been red-hot favourites for a third consecutive world crown. And after regaining the Ashes with a whitewash and winning their first 6 games in the Commonwealth Bank Series, it did look hard to see exactly how they could be stopped. But the wheels came off quite spectacularly with 5 consecutive defeats. England beat them 2-0 in the Commonwealth Bank Series Final, and then New Zealand won the Chappel-Hadlee Series 3-0, chasing down scores of over 335 in the last two games. Matters were compounded by injuries to Brett Lee, Matthew Hayden and Andrew Symonds, with the first-named ruled out of this tournament, and the other pair still uncertain to play before the second phase.
There's no problem with the batting or fielding. In the One-Day World Rankings, 4 of the top-10 batsmen are Australian, with Mike Hussey in top spot and Ricky Ponting third. But the question marks over the depth and quality of their bowling loom larger than ever. They are severely weakened by the absence of Lee, one of the best limited-overs bowlers in the world and a critical presence in the potentially costly closing overs. Glenn McGrath is still very economical if slightly less of a wicket-taking threat, but the back-up is meagre. Nathan Bracken and Stuart Clark are nothing out of the ordinary in one-day cricket, while Shane Watson and Brad Hogg looked ineffective and expensive in the middle overs in those recent defeats. On these slow Caribbean pitches, taking the pace off the ball and defending during those middle overs could be the single biggest determinant. And here, the favourites look very, very weak.
In the speciality team markets, McGrath may have lost a bit of pace, but he still looks a rock-solid bet to be the most economical bowler. His career average economy of 3.83 is incomparable to the rest of this moderate attack, with next best figures being Bracken with 4.45, a trend strongly confirmed in the Chappel-Hadlee series.
VERDICT: No sensible person would ever write the Aussies off but the current odds of 9/4 represent appalling value.
ADVISED BETS
6pts GLENN MCGRATH @ 5/2 - MOST ECONOMICAL AUSTRALIAN BOWLER (STAN JAMES)
SOUTH AFRICA
For my money South Africa, newly installed as the top-ranked one-day side, are the most likely winners of the event. Since returning to international cricket, they have looked strong contenders in each World Cup, only to fall short of the final each time. Usually they've gone down in classics, most memorably falling to the Aussies in the 1999 semi in England, when Alan Donald ran himself out needing one run to win. Last time on home turf, it was Mark Boucher's inability to correctly calculate the required Duckworth-Lewis run-rate.
They have a settled, strong side full of players better suited to one-day cricket than Tests. Makhaya Ntini could easily finish up as top tournament bowler while Shaun Pollock and Jacques Kallis are the type of genuinely world-class all-rounders that are invaluable in limited overs cricket. Equally players like Justin Kemp, Charl Langeveldt and Andrew Hall rarely look top-class at Test level but offer valuable contributions in the one-day game. The batting line-up is very strong, with four of the opening five - Graeme Smith, Kallis, Herschelle Gibbs and Ashwell Prince - all expected to make significant contributions at some stage. Their only weakness is the lack of a top-quality slower bowler, with Smith and Kemp most likely to share the 5th bowler duties. In stark contrast to the Aussies, South Africa come here in the best of form, having just hammered India and Pakistan in recent one-day series.
VERDICT: A rock-solid chance of atoning for previous World Cup disappointments.
ADVISED BETS
10pts SOUTH AFRICA TO WIN THE TROPHY @ 9/2
3pts MAKHAYA NTINI TOP TOURNAMENT WICKET-TAKER @ 10/1 (GENERAL)
WEST INDIES
Its 28 years since the West Indies last won the World Cup, and for the last decade or so the reputation of Caribbean cricket has been in freefall. But with the trophy being held in the Caribbean for the first time, and Brian Lara desperate to impress in his final World Cup, a sporting fairytale looks increasingly possible.
The Windies have emerged in recent years as a quality one-day outfit, unrecognisable from the side that has struggled so badly in Test cricket. They won the 2005 ICC Champions Trophy in England, and lost in the final of its renewal in India late last year to Australia. In Chris Gayle, they have a potentially match-winning destructive opener, who can also be relied upon to provide economical slow bowling in the middle overs. Ramnaresh Sarwan and Shivarine Chanderpaul perfectly compliment Lara in the middle-order and I expect emerging all-rounder Dwayne Bravo to be one of the stars of the tournament. There doesn't really look to be a weakness in the side, as the fast bowlers are usually well-backed up by a variety of slower bowling options, with Gayle, Marlon Samuels and even Dwayne Smith all well capable of doing a containing job.
With fanatical home support guaranteed, they look the best value bet to win the trophy. I think the tournament top runscorer market could be dominated by openers, as they'll probably play a few more innings when set small totals by the minnows. And in those one-sided games, I expect at least a couple are likely to hit very big scores. Gayle looks the most likely and best value candidate here, at odds of 16/1. And on the speciality bet front, Corey Collymore is well over-priced at 10/1 to be top bowler in a wide-open market.
VERDICT: Strong contenders on home turf and the best value outright bet.
ADVISED BETS
However any idea of backing them in this competition went out the window with the news that talented fast-bowling duo Mohammed Asif and Shoaib Akhtar are to miss the event, along with all-rounder Abdul Razzaq. Their lack of strength in bowling depth was clear to see when similarly short of manpower in the recent ICC Trophy, and I seriously doubt they'll be a factor this time. Expect them to concede some big totals here.
VERDICT: Will struggle without Asif and Akhtar.
INDIA
Despite reaching the final in 2003 and an extremely talented line-up, the Indians are another side that have tended to under-achieve. Their batting line-up is particularly formidable with Tendulkar, Dravid, Ganguly and Sehwag all world-class match-winners. Wicket-keeper Dhoni has moved to No.2 in the world one-day batting rankings with some explosive efforts and could be one of the stars of the tournament. Another positive is the wide choice of slow bowlers for use during the middle overs, when containment is the key. On the recent form of a home series win against Sri Lanka, they have to be taken very seriously but its hard to get away from a recent poor travelling record. In South Africa, they were blown away 4-0, and on last year's trip to the West Indies they also suffered a comprehensive 4-1 defeat.
Again the top Indian wicket-taker market looks wide open, with both Munaf Patel and Sri Sreesanth representing excellent value at 8/1 and 9/1 respectively. They were first and joint-third in the wicket-taking stakes against Sri Lanka, and Sreesanth was outstanding in the recent Test series against South Africa.
VERDICT: Potentially dangerous, but doubts remain outside the sub-continent.
ADVISED BETS
3pts MUNAF PATEL TOP INDIAN WICKET-TAKER @ 8/1 (LADBROKES)
3pts SRI SREESANTH TOP INDIAN WICKET-TAKER @ 9/1 (TOTE)
SRI LANKA
No team comes in better prepared than the 1995 champions. Coach Tom Moody has been on record in defining this event as their main goal for the last year and they certainly look one of the likeliest winners. Everything depends on the ability of the top-order to deal with new ball. Jayasuriya and Thuranga are often devastating in the power plays, but at the same time their weakness has always been in conditions favourable to pace bowling. Failures on recent tours of India and New Zealand came as a direct consequence of this. Indeed they have usually been vulnerable outside the sub-continent, but their outstanding 5-0 Natwest Series win in England last year lingers in the memory. And while Murali will probably be the most dangerous and economical middle-over bowler in the tournament, he is far from the only threat. Chaminda Vaas was the leading wicket-taker in the last World Cup while Lasith Malinga looks a rising star. This time I fancy the younger man to challenge for top honours.
VERDICT: Should make the semis at least.
ADVISED BET
3pts MURALI MOST ECONOMICAL TOURNAMENT BOWLER @ 10/1 (STAN JAMES)
1pt ew LASITH MALINGA TOP TOURNAMENT WICKET-TAKER @ 18/1 (BLUESQ)
NEW ZEALAND
The Kiwis have a long held reputation as a top one-day side but the cracks have started to show lately. Until that astonishing Chappel-Hadlee series whitewash over Australia, they had looked badly out of sorts all winter. Whereas they have previously batted all the way down the order, their line-up looks more brittle and shorter than usual. With Nathan Astle retired, and captain Stephen Fleming struggling, there's been far too much reliance on Jacob Oram and Brendan McCullum to bail the middle-order out. The ever-impressive Shane Bond looks the only bowler capable of doing serious damage. They also looked uncharacteristically out of sorts in the field on occasion in recent matches, and have struggled to find the right bowling balance with part-timers like Scott Styris looking ineffective.
Oram's successful recovery from injury remains the key and essential to them having any chance at all in my view. Wicket-keeper batsman McCullum looks outstanding each-way value to be top runscorer.
VERDICT: Pinning all their hopes on Bond and Oram. Up against it in any case.
ADVISED BET
2pts ew BRENDAN MCCULLUM TOP RUNSCORER @ 20/1 (LADBROKES)
ENGLAND
No-hopers two months ago, England have suddenly become very live contenders. Perhaps by accident rather than design, the selectors appear to have found a nice balance for once. Liam Plunkett was superb in the Commonwealth Bank Series, and along with James Anderson, Monty Panesar, Jon Lewis and star all-rounder Andrew Flintoff there is plenty of strikepower in the bowling. Economical spinner Jamie Dalyrimple and veteran wicket-keeper Paul Nixon add depth to the batting. On his return from injury, Kevin Pieterson is widely expected to be one of the batting stars of the tournament, and Paul Collingwood regularly proves invaluable as a world class fielder and middle-order 'finisher'. After so many years of one-day failure, one fears over-reacting but everything does look in place for a very serious tilt at winning the trophy.
The spreads look the best route to backing England. For instance, Spreadex offer a performance index which can be bought at 39. As long as they make the Super Eight, (a foregone conclusion surely), the maximum loss is 14 points and if they qualify for the last-4 we're guaranteed at least 11 points profit.
VERDICT: Have found their form at exactly the right time. An excellent chance of progressing to the latter stages and even pulling off a victory that would have seemed unthinkable at the start of the year.
ADVISED BET
BUY ENGLAND ON OUTRIGHT SPREAD 5pts @ 39 (100/75/50/25/0) (SPREADEX)
AUSTRALIA
Ever since their facile defence in South Africa 4 years ago, the Australians have been red-hot favourites for a third consecutive world crown. And after regaining the Ashes with a whitewash and winning their first 6 games in the Commonwealth Bank Series, it did look hard to see exactly how they could be stopped. But the wheels came off quite spectacularly with 5 consecutive defeats. England beat them 2-0 in the Commonwealth Bank Series Final, and then New Zealand won the Chappel-Hadlee Series 3-0, chasing down scores of over 335 in the last two games. Matters were compounded by injuries to Brett Lee, Matthew Hayden and Andrew Symonds, with the first-named ruled out of this tournament, and the other pair still uncertain to play before the second phase.
There's no problem with the batting or fielding. In the One-Day World Rankings, 4 of the top-10 batsmen are Australian, with Mike Hussey in top spot and Ricky Ponting third. But the question marks over the depth and quality of their bowling loom larger than ever. They are severely weakened by the absence of Lee, one of the best limited-overs bowlers in the world and a critical presence in the potentially costly closing overs. Glenn McGrath is still very economical if slightly less of a wicket-taking threat, but the back-up is meagre. Nathan Bracken and Stuart Clark are nothing out of the ordinary in one-day cricket, while Shane Watson and Brad Hogg looked ineffective and expensive in the middle overs in those recent defeats. On these slow Caribbean pitches, taking the pace off the ball and defending during those middle overs could be the single biggest determinant. And here, the favourites look very, very weak.
In the speciality team markets, McGrath may have lost a bit of pace, but he still looks a rock-solid bet to be the most economical bowler. His career average economy of 3.83 is incomparable to the rest of this moderate attack, with next best figures being Bracken with 4.45, a trend strongly confirmed in the Chappel-Hadlee series.
VERDICT: No sensible person would ever write the Aussies off but the current odds of 9/4 represent appalling value.
ADVISED BETS
6pts GLENN MCGRATH @ 5/2 - MOST ECONOMICAL AUSTRALIAN BOWLER (STAN JAMES)
SOUTH AFRICA
For my money South Africa, newly installed as the top-ranked one-day side, are the most likely winners of the event. Since returning to international cricket, they have looked strong contenders in each World Cup, only to fall short of the final each time. Usually they've gone down in classics, most memorably falling to the Aussies in the 1999 semi in England, when Alan Donald ran himself out needing one run to win. Last time on home turf, it was Mark Boucher's inability to correctly calculate the required Duckworth-Lewis run-rate.
They have a settled, strong side full of players better suited to one-day cricket than Tests. Makhaya Ntini could easily finish up as top tournament bowler while Shaun Pollock and Jacques Kallis are the type of genuinely world-class all-rounders that are invaluable in limited overs cricket. Equally players like Justin Kemp, Charl Langeveldt and Andrew Hall rarely look top-class at Test level but offer valuable contributions in the one-day game. The batting line-up is very strong, with four of the opening five - Graeme Smith, Kallis, Herschelle Gibbs and Ashwell Prince - all expected to make significant contributions at some stage. Their only weakness is the lack of a top-quality slower bowler, with Smith and Kemp most likely to share the 5th bowler duties. In stark contrast to the Aussies, South Africa come here in the best of form, having just hammered India and Pakistan in recent one-day series.
VERDICT: A rock-solid chance of atoning for previous World Cup disappointments.
ADVISED BETS
10pts SOUTH AFRICA TO WIN THE TROPHY @ 9/2
3pts MAKHAYA NTINI TOP TOURNAMENT WICKET-TAKER @ 10/1 (GENERAL)
WEST INDIES
Its 28 years since the West Indies last won the World Cup, and for the last decade or so the reputation of Caribbean cricket has been in freefall. But with the trophy being held in the Caribbean for the first time, and Brian Lara desperate to impress in his final World Cup, a sporting fairytale looks increasingly possible.
The Windies have emerged in recent years as a quality one-day outfit, unrecognisable from the side that has struggled so badly in Test cricket. They won the 2005 ICC Champions Trophy in England, and lost in the final of its renewal in India late last year to Australia. In Chris Gayle, they have a potentially match-winning destructive opener, who can also be relied upon to provide economical slow bowling in the middle overs. Ramnaresh Sarwan and Shivarine Chanderpaul perfectly compliment Lara in the middle-order and I expect emerging all-rounder Dwayne Bravo to be one of the stars of the tournament. There doesn't really look to be a weakness in the side, as the fast bowlers are usually well-backed up by a variety of slower bowling options, with Gayle, Marlon Samuels and even Dwayne Smith all well capable of doing a containing job.
With fanatical home support guaranteed, they look the best value bet to win the trophy. I think the tournament top runscorer market could be dominated by openers, as they'll probably play a few more innings when set small totals by the minnows. And in those one-sided games, I expect at least a couple are likely to hit very big scores. Gayle looks the most likely and best value candidate here, at odds of 16/1. And on the speciality bet front, Corey Collymore is well over-priced at 10/1 to be top bowler in a wide-open market.
VERDICT: Strong contenders on home turf and the best value outright bet.
ADVISED BETS
6pts WINDIES TO WIN TROPHY @ 8/1 (BETFAIR)
4pts COREY COLLYMORE - TOP WINDIES WICKET-TAKER @ 10/1 (LADBROKES, TOTE)
1pt ew CHRIS GAYLE TOP TOURNAMENT RUNSCORER @ 16/1 (GENERAL)
PAKISTAN
For as long as I've been watching the game, Pakistan have been a cricketing enigma. Full of talented players with both bat and ball, persistently undone by indiscipline, inconsistency, infighting or a combination of all three. This time looks no exception. On their recent tour of South Africa, the visitors manage to intersperse a record-breaking 351 in Durban with three low totals and crushing defeats. Mohammed Yousuf was the leading batsman in world cricket in 2006, with Inzaman and Younis Khan cementing a world-class middle-order, while all-rounder Shahid Afridi can win a game virtually single-handed if allowed to settle at the crease.
However any idea of backing them in this competition went out the window with the news that talented fast-bowling duo Mohammed Asif and Shoaib Akhtar are to miss the event, along with all-rounder Abdul Razzaq. Their lack of strength in bowling depth was clear to see when similarly short of manpower in the recent ICC Trophy, and I seriously doubt they'll be a factor this time. Expect them to concede some big totals here.
VERDICT: Will struggle without Asif and Akhtar.
INDIA
Despite reaching the final in 2003 and an extremely talented line-up, the Indians are another side that have tended to under-achieve. Their batting line-up is particularly formidable with Tendulkar, Dravid, Ganguly and Sehwag all world-class match-winners. Wicket-keeper Dhoni has moved to No.2 in the world one-day batting rankings with some explosive efforts and could be one of the stars of the tournament. Another positive is the wide choice of slow bowlers for use during the middle overs, when containment is the key. On the recent form of a home series win against Sri Lanka, they have to be taken very seriously but its hard to get away from a recent poor travelling record. In South Africa, they were blown away 4-0, and on last year's trip to the West Indies they also suffered a comprehensive 4-1 defeat.
Again the top Indian wicket-taker market looks wide open, with both Munaf Patel and Sri Sreesanth representing excellent value at 8/1 and 9/1 respectively. They were first and joint-third in the wicket-taking stakes against Sri Lanka, and Sreesanth was outstanding in the recent Test series against South Africa.
VERDICT: Potentially dangerous, but doubts remain outside the sub-continent.
ADVISED BETS
3pts MUNAF PATEL TOP INDIAN WICKET-TAKER @ 8/1 (LADBROKES)
3pts SRI SREESANTH TOP INDIAN WICKET-TAKER @ 9/1 (TOTE)
SRI LANKA
No team comes in better prepared than the 1995 champions. Coach Tom Moody has been on record in defining this event as their main goal for the last year and they certainly look one of the likeliest winners. Everything depends on the ability of the top-order to deal with new ball. Jayasuriya and Thuranga are often devastating in the power plays, but at the same time their weakness has always been in conditions favourable to pace bowling. Failures on recent tours of India and New Zealand came as a direct consequence of this. Indeed they have usually been vulnerable outside the sub-continent, but their outstanding 5-0 Natwest Series win in England last year lingers in the memory. And while Murali will probably be the most dangerous and economical middle-over bowler in the tournament, he is far from the only threat. Chaminda Vaas was the leading wicket-taker in the last World Cup while Lasith Malinga looks a rising star. This time I fancy the younger man to challenge for top honours.
VERDICT: Should make the semis at least.
ADVISED BET
3pts MURALI MOST ECONOMICAL TOURNAMENT BOWLER @ 10/1 (STAN JAMES)
1pt ew LASITH MALINGA TOP TOURNAMENT WICKET-TAKER @ 18/1 (BLUESQ)
NEW ZEALAND
The Kiwis have a long held reputation as a top one-day side but the cracks have started to show lately. Until that astonishing Chappel-Hadlee series whitewash over Australia, they had looked badly out of sorts all winter. Whereas they have previously batted all the way down the order, their line-up looks more brittle and shorter than usual. With Nathan Astle retired, and captain Stephen Fleming struggling, there's been far too much reliance on Jacob Oram and Brendan McCullum to bail the middle-order out. The ever-impressive Shane Bond looks the only bowler capable of doing serious damage. They also looked uncharacteristically out of sorts in the field on occasion in recent matches, and have struggled to find the right bowling balance with part-timers like Scott Styris looking ineffective.
Oram's successful recovery from injury remains the key and essential to them having any chance at all in my view. Wicket-keeper batsman McCullum looks outstanding each-way value to be top runscorer.
VERDICT: Pinning all their hopes on Bond and Oram. Up against it in any case.
ADVISED BET
2pts ew BRENDAN MCCULLUM TOP RUNSCORER @ 20/1 (LADBROKES)
ENGLAND
No-hopers two months ago, England have suddenly become very live contenders. Perhaps by accident rather than design, the selectors appear to have found a nice balance for once. Liam Plunkett was superb in the Commonwealth Bank Series, and along with James Anderson, Monty Panesar, Jon Lewis and star all-rounder Andrew Flintoff there is plenty of strikepower in the bowling. Economical spinner Jamie Dalyrimple and veteran wicket-keeper Paul Nixon add depth to the batting. On his return from injury, Kevin Pieterson is widely expected to be one of the batting stars of the tournament, and Paul Collingwood regularly proves invaluable as a world class fielder and middle-order 'finisher'. After so many years of one-day failure, one fears over-reacting but everything does look in place for a very serious tilt at winning the trophy.
The spreads look the best route to backing England. For instance, Spreadex offer a performance index which can be bought at 39. As long as they make the Super Eight, (a foregone conclusion surely), the maximum loss is 14 points and if they qualify for the last-4 we're guaranteed at least 11 points profit.
VERDICT: Have found their form at exactly the right time. An excellent chance of progressing to the latter stages and even pulling off a victory that would have seemed unthinkable at the start of the year.
ADVISED BET
BUY ENGLAND ON OUTRIGHT SPREAD 5pts @ 39 (100/75/50/25/0) (SPREADEX)
posted by Paul Krishnamurty at 2:37 AM
1 Comments:
Nice review.
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