Paul Krishnamurty

Weekly Golf Column Update

2010-11-20T22:41:00.000-08:00

Good news! Since I last updated my annual golf stats, fortunes have taken a turn for the better. After Ian Poulter's win in the Hong Kong Open, the weekly preview is 70 points up for 2010. I'm also holding a 9/1 ante-post bet about Martin Kaymer to win the Race to Dubai, for which he is heavily odds-on with one event to go.

The stats for my new cricket column at http://www.alloutcricket.co.uk/hot-tips remain healthy, at 103 points up since starting four months ago. Don't miss my Ashes preview on Tuesday.

You can now follow all my betting tips on Twitter @paulmotty

2010 WINNERS

MARTIN KAYMER WON ABU DHABI CHAMPIONSHIP @ 14/1
IAN POULTER WON WGC-ACCENTURE MATCHPLAY @ 28/1
ANTHONY KIM WON HOUSTON OPEN @ 25/1
ADAM SCOTT WON VALERO TEXAS OPEN @ 25/1
GRAEME MCDOWELL WON US OPEN @ 66/1
MATT KUCHAR WON BARCLAYS CLASSIC @ 35/1
EUROPE WON RYDER CUP @ 7/10
LUKE DONALD TIED TOP OVERALL SCORER @ 16/1
IAN POULTER TIED TOP OVERALL SCORER @ 18/1
TIGER WOODS TIED TOP US SCORER @ 11/2
MARTIN KAYMER WON DUNHILL LINKS @ 16/1
MATTEO MANASSERO WON CASTELLO MASTERS @ 50/1
ADAM SCOTT WON BARCLAYS SINGAPORE OPEN @ 16/1
IAN POULTER WON HONG KONG OPEN @ 12/1

2009 RUNNERS-UP

MATT KUCHAR 2ND BOB HOPE CLASSIC @ 33/1
BRANDT SNEDEKER 2ND FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN @ 40/1
RICKIE FOWLER 2ND WASTE MANAGEMENT PHOENIX OPEN @ 80/1
ROBERT ALLENBY 2ND PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP @ 80/1
RHYS DAVIES 2ND CELTIC MANOR WALES OPEN @ 25/1
SCOTT VERPLANK 2ND TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP @ 40/1
COREY PAVIN 2ND TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP @ 125/1
ALEJANDRO CANIZARES 2ND FRENCH OPEN @ 60/1
RYAN MOORE 2ND AT & T NATIONAL @ 40/1
PADRAIG HARRINGTON 2ND & 18/1 IRISH OPEN
JEFF OVERTON 2ND @ 28/1 GREENBRIER CLASSIC
JASON DAY 2ND @ 50/1 DEUTSCHE BANK CHAMPIONSHIP
JOHAN EDFORS 2ND @ 80/1 VIVENDI CUP
MATTEO MANASSERO 2ND HONG KONG OPEN @ 50/1

2010-09-27T17:11:00.000-07:00

LATEST BETTING HIGHLIGHTS

Last weekend saw my best winner of 2010 with Ed Miliband elected as Labour leader, whom I tipped heavily for the Betfair blog

http://betting.betfair.com/specials/politics-betting/uk-politics/next-labour-leader-betting-why-the-market-favours-the-wrong-220810.html

Following on, I've advised reinvesting some of the winnings on Labour to win the next election, at least as a trade with a view to laying back at a shorter price later on in the electoral cycle.

http://betting.betfair.com/specials/politics-betting/uk-politics/politics-betting-ignore-red-ed-jibes-and-back-labour-for-nex-260910.html

My new cricket column for www.alloutcricket.co.uk has also got off to a flying start, returning 106 points profit so far.

At 57 points down over the year, the weekly golf column for Golf Monthly has been less impressive, although I am holding a very strong position on Martin Kaymer to win the Race to Dubai.

2010 WINNERS

MARTIN KAYMER WON ABU DHABI CHAMPIONSHIP @ 14/1
IAN POULTER WON WGC-ACCENTURE MATCHPLAY @ 28/1
ANTHONY KIM WON HOUSTON OPEN @ 25/1
ADAM SCOTT WON VALERO TEXAS OPEN @ 25/1
GRAEME MCDOWELL WON US OPEN @ 66/1
MATT KUCHAR WON BARCLAYS CLASSIC @ 35/1

2009 RUNNERS-UP

MATT KUCHAR 2ND BOB HOPE CLASSIC @ 33/1
BRANDT SNEDEKER 2ND FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN @ 40/1
RICKIE FOWLER 2ND WASTE MANAGEMENT PHOENIX OPEN @ 80/1
ROBERT ALLENBY 2ND PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP @ 80/1
RHYS DAVIES 2ND CELTIC MANOR WALES OPEN @ 25/1
SCOTT VERPLANK 2ND TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP @ 40/1
COREY PAVIN 2ND TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP @ 125/1
ALEJANDRO CANIZARES 2ND FRENCH OPEN @ 60/1
RYAN MOORE 2ND AT & T NATIONAL @ 40/1
PADRAIG HARRINGTON 2ND & 18/1 IRISH OPEN
JEFF OVERTON 2ND @ 28/1 GREENBRIER CLASSIC
JASON DAY 2ND @ 50/1 DEUTSCHE BANK CHAMPIONSHIP
JOHAN EDFORS 2ND @ 80/1 VIVENDI CUP

Weekly Golf Column Latest

2010-07-15T03:56:00.000-07:00

So far, 2010 has been a frustrating year on the golf betting front. Going into the Open, my weekly column is 11 points down. There have been some highlights in big events, such as Graeme McDowell winning the US Open and Ian Poulter becoming World Matchplay champion, but as you can see below, there have been plenty of big-priced second places. Not to worry, as any hardened golf gambler knows, all you can do is try and get people in contention on Sunday afternoon, after which luck plays a huge part. I'm sure things will start to go my way soon, hopefully at St Andrews.

My Open preview can be seen here
http://www.golf-monthly.co.uk/tours-and-news/tournews/491069/open-championship-golf-betting-guide.html

2010 WINNERS

MARTIN KAYMER WON ABU DHABI CHAMPIONSHIP @ 14/1
IAN POULTER WON WGC-ACCENTURE MATCHPLAY @ 28/1
ANTHONY KIM WON HOUSTON OPEN @ 25/1
ADAM SCOTT WON VALERO TEXAS OPEN @ 25/1
GRAEME MCDOWELL WON US OPEN @ 66/1

2009 RUNNERS-UP

MATT KUCHAR 2ND BOB HOPE CLASSIC @ 33/1
BRANDT SNEDEKER 2ND FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN @ 40/1
RICKIE FOWLER 2ND WASTE MANAGEMENT PHOENIX OPEN @ 80/1
ROBERT ALLENBY 2ND PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP @ 80/1
RHYS DAVIES 2ND CELTIC MANOR WALES OPEN @ 25/1
SCOTT VERPLANK 2ND TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP @ 40/1
COREY PAVIN 2ND TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP @ 125/1
ALEJANDRO CANIZARES 2ND FRENCH OPEN @ 60/1
RYAN MOORE 2ND AT & T NATIONAL @ 40/1

The Ultimate General Election Betting Guide

2010-05-01T06:16:00.000-07:00

Given that we've since had a change of Prime Minister, various attempted coups against Gordon Brown and been teased about early polls that never came to pass, it seems like an eternity since the last General Election. My regret about this isn't just political. Of all the various sports and markets that I make my living betting on, nothing even comes close to an election.

Taking risks on political betting is nothing like sport. As with other novelty markets, (i.e. Big Brother, X Factor), there are simply fewer random effects to account for. We can all confidently assert that Chelsea will beat Hull City, but there are no secrets and the odds will reflect their overwhelming superiority. However, once every so often, the outsiders will play a blinder, Chelsea might hit the woodwork six times, and punters who've shelled out a fortune at miniscule odds about the favourites will learn a lesson they'll never forget.

That crucial element of 'luck' is removed when betting on politics. If I predict, for example, the Lib Dems to win City of Durham by 2,000 votes plus, I can only lose if I'm badly wrong. 2,000 people are not going to all be impeded on their way to the polling booths in Durham.

Five years ago, such confidence proved justified . After analysing every seat, my prediction was Labour 359, Conservative 191, Lib Dem 67. The actual shares were 356, 196 and 62, ensuring nearly all the bets on seat totals and size of majority were landed.

In fairness, politics was much more predictable back then. During the long economic boom, the opinion polls barely shifted, showing a clear Labour lead with the Tories stuck in the low 30s. The only really significant swing in 2005 was away from Labour towards the Lib Dems, primarily thanks to their opposition to the Iraq war.

That predictability is long gone. The last Parliament quickly saw the Tories, under a more personable, swing-voter friendly leader in David Cameron, open up big opinion poll leads. As the Lib Dems twice switched leaders and all but disappeared from mainstream media coverage, Cameron was able to position himself as the default alternative to an unpopular government.

However even at their high mid-term point, the Tories never truly captured public sentiment. Indeed, a clear sign of the electorate's scepticism about Cameron's Tories was evident when Gordon Brown suddenly re-established a lead after replacing Tony Blair as PM. Had he held that infamous election that never was in late 2007, Labour would have been heavily odds-on to win the most seats. Once Brown famously 'bottled' that early election, and the economy turned very sour, the opinion polls swung further towards the Tories than for at least three decades.

During the last three years, the long-running ICM/Guardian poll series has shown variations between a Labour lead of six points, and a Tory lead of twenty. Now, since the dramatic advance of the Lib Dems during this campaign, the latest of these 'gold standard' polls shows all three parties separated by just seven points. The electorate has never been so volatile, reflecting a wider disenchantment with both the process and political class in general. It all makes for the most exciting election in living memory.

How that public mood plays out in terms of seat totals depends on a variety of regional nuances and tactical factors. We should treat predictions from the TV news with great caution, even on the night itself. Too often, their projections rely on simplistic assumptions about national swing based on the headline voting figures, implying that there is a uniform effect across the whole country and that seats will be distributed accordingly. Two examples involving the Lib Dems illustrate why this isn't the case.

In 2005, when the BBC coverage started, showing exit polls that turned out to be broadly accurate, their estimate was for the Lib Dems to get around 50 seats. Consequently, the in-running markets on Betfair reflected those predictions and some astonishing value appeared either to lay them getting below 50, or to back them to get 60+. Remember, this is after all the votes had been cast. The result was 62.

Equally, as their polls have improved massively in recent weeks, we've heard some wild projections about their seat tally. Even though these projections already recognise that the voting system is hopelessly biased against the Lib Dems, they seem unable to reflect the fact that Lib Dem support is particularly concentrated in certain regions, amongst specific type of voter. They don't have the resources to run strong local campaigns beyond the first 120-odd seats they either hold or are realistically targetting. As a Lib Dem supporter, I take no pleasure in saying this, but even on a brilliant night where they won the popular vote, they'll struggle to get many more than 100.

The converse effect is that the Lib Dems should be very reliable in the seats that they are targetting, and this is where most of the best value in the constituency betting lies. Before I get to each party's best targets, here's my prediction of the overall results.

POLLS AND SEAT PREDICTIONS

I've deliberately tried to leave this to the last moment, so as not to be wrong-footed by debate performances or events on the campaign trail. Given that the latest polls were taken since 'Bigotgate' and the final TV debate, I doubt we'll see much movement before Thursday.

CONSERVATIVES 36% (313 SEATS)
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 29% (100 SEATS)
LABOUR 25% (204 SEATS)
OTHERS 10% (33 SEATS)

Note these predictions are optimistic from a Tory perspective and negative for Labour, compared to current estimates, (yesterday's Yougov/Sun daily tracker had scores of CON 34/LD 28/LAB 28, for instance). Two reasons lead me to think the Tories will perform slightly better than that poll suggests. Firstly, their support is likelier to be registered to vote and more motivated to turn out. In contrast, getting their increasingly distant core vote to the polling booths has been a long-term problem for Labour, while this extra Lib Dem support stems mainly from young people, amongst whom turnout is lower. Secondly, opinion polls have repeatedly over-estimated Labour in previous decades, partly for those reasons of turnout.

Even on these optimistic figures, there's no real evidence of a seismic shift in public opinion towards the Tories. Considering they scored 32.3% in 2005, under an unpopular leader in Michael Howard, before the recession, there don't appear to be many new Tory voters out there. Those that have switched are probably pre-1997 supporters, rather than new, previously anti-Tory segments of the population. Nevertheless, the swing will be enough to ensure they comfortably win the most seats, and to make David Cameron PM. My prediction leaves them 13 short of an overall majority, but enough to form a workable minority government without forming a coalition.

They can win so many seats despite such a small rise in their share of the vote, because the Labour vote is collapsing. Clearly, there is a groundswell of opinion that its time for a change. Most switchers may have decided that the change should be in a Lib Dem, rather than Conservative, direction, yet the consequence will be to make the Tories' task easier in dozens of critical Labour-held marginals. To take the fairly typical example of a constituency where the 2005 result was Lab 42, Con 30, LD 18. If the Lab vote drops by 10%, 7% of which go Lib Dems and 3% to the Conservatives, Cameron's party would win on 33.

Basically, the Tories will take the world of beating in any Labour-held seat where they scored 30% last time. That is enough to become the largest party with ease, but in order to gain a sizeable majority, they'll need to start winning over people who've never previously voted Tory. That was possible when the election looked a 2-horse race, less so now Clegg has stolen the 'change agenda'.

Those seat total predictions are based on analysis of every single constituency stretching back three years. Here's how it breaks down.

To start, I took the 200 likeliest Tory gains from Labour, including some highly unlikely places. 77 are confidently fancied to go Tory, 44 very much so. In itself, that ensures the Tories win the most seats. 52 are fancied to stay Labour. A further 25 Con/Lab marginals are still deemed too close to call, though for the sake of the overall prediction I have allocated 15 to the Tories, 10 to Labour. Then there's the 46 of these seats where the Lib Dems could play a significant hand. Out of these, I'm only predicting the Tories will win 12. So here, the total is 104 Tory gains from Labour.

A couple of months ago, that kind of result looked like it could be enough to secure a small Tory majority, because they looked certain to make substantial gains from the Lib Dems. Six months ago, I'd have predicted 20+. Suddenly, due to the outbreak of Cleggmania following the Lib Dem leader's starring performance in the TV debates, the reverse effect seems vaguely possible. In my view, several seats will change hands in either direction, but there will be little or no net change. For the sake of the calculations, I'm predicting no net change. Against Labour, my estimate is that the Lib Dems will gain 38.

BEST CONSERVATIVE BETS

While there is obviously a margin of error with these predictions, given the unusually high number of 'too close to calls' and unforeseen local factors, I'll be very surprised if they're more than 20 off the mark. In previous elections, picking the correct band in the seat totals markets has been pretty easy and I think it is once again. In the Tories' case, the best bet is 5/2 about the 300 - 324 band, along with a saver on 325 - 349 at 3/1. I see very little risk in such a strategy.

Of course, given that they're heavily odds-on to win the most seats, they are a similarly prohibitive price for their likeliest gains. Brave punters might be best served focussing on a couple of seats where the Labour lead may have been previously exaggerated due to a popular long-term MP, KEIGHLEY and CREWE & NANTWICH . In the former, Anne Cryer is standing down, making it a prime target to return to pre-1997 status. The latter was famously won in a 2008 by-election, at what may prove to be the height of Cameron's popularity. The scale of the victory was stunning, even if the result wasn't quite the surprise it was made out to be, as the former Labour incumbent, the late Gwyneth Dunwoody, almost certainly enjoyed a vast personal vote.

Three Labour-held seats in Yorkshire, where the Tories are outsiders, look decent value. The relevant swing appears to be bigger in this heavily targetted region. While the Ashcroft money is buying publicity on a grand scale in these pivotal marginals, the Labour vote is fragmenting. DARLINGTON used to be Tory back in the 1980s, and despite requiring a whopping 13% swing, could go back. This is former Blair acolyte Alan Milburn's seat, and since learning of his numerous outside interests, I'd be sceptical about how hard he's working to keep the seat for his predecessor.

MORLEY & OUTWOOD, where Ed Balls must be worried about being remembered as the 2010 version of Michael Portillo, could be the headline story of the night. The concern in Morley is that the core Labour vote will fragment to the Lib Dems, BNP and UKIP, if it even bothers to turn out, whereas the Tories will get their significant minority out in droves. In a similar scenario, SCUNTHORPE could be vulnerable following the arrest of Labour MP Elliott Morley on expenses charges.

One more Tory bet appeals, on them to win MIDDLESBOROUGH SOUTH and CLEVELAND. Similar arguments apply here about the fragmentation of Labour's core vote, and it looks well within range given that the Tories were supported by over 30% of this electorate even during their darkest days.

20pts CONSERVATIVES TO WIN 300 - 324 SEATS @ 3.5 (VCBET, BLUESQ, BETFAIR)
15pts CONSERVATIVES TO WIN 325 - 349 SEATS @ 4.0 (BETFRED)

15pts CONSERVATIVES TO WIN CREWE & NANTWICH @ 1/2 (PADDY POWER)
15pts CONSERVATIVES TO WIN KEIGHLEY @ 2/5 (PADDY POWER, SKYBET)
6pts CONSERVATIVES TO WIN MORLEY & OUTWOOD @ 2.75 (VCBET, HILLS)
6pts CONSERVATIVES TO WIN MIDDLESBOROUGH SOUTH AND CLEVELAND (2.75 CORALS, VCBET)
3pts CONSERVATIVES TO WIN DARLINGTON @ 5/1 (LADBROKES)
3pts CONSERVATIVES TO WIN SCUNTHORPE @ 5/1 (PADDY POWER, CORALS, HILLS)

BEST LIB DEM & LABOUR BETS

As for Labour and the Lib Dems, I would equally recommend either a straight unders/overs bet or a spread bet. Skybet offer 5/6 for Labour to get lower than 221, well above my 204 prediction, or alternatively we can sell at 206. With the Lib Dems, Skybet also offer 5/6 about them getting over 85, or we can buy at 89. With those spread bets, the upside is far greater than the downside. Even those negative predictions don't factor in the potential for total meltdown. It is quite possible that the remaining core Labour vote either doesn't turn out, or fragments to several smaller parties. There could well be some massive unforeseen shock results out there. That sell of Labour seats also acts as a type of saver against the Tories performing even better than my seats prediction suggests.

Before getting to the plethora of Lib Dem constituency bets, two very small silver linings for Labour supporters. There is one part of the UK where they aren't in freefall - Scotland. Their resilience owes much to a fear of a Tory government, as well as leadership changes and the shine gradually wearing off the SNP administration. In 2005, they lost many votes to the Lib Dems, who were led by a popular Scot in Charles Kennedy, who in contrast to the unpopular Blair, had opposed the Iraq war. Following a brief spell led by another Scot, Ming Campbell, Lib Dem support in Scotland collapsed as they disappeared off the radar and opted for a lesser-known English leader in Clegg. The recent surge has turned that around, but I doubt there will be much difference between the two parties' respective 2005 positions.

If it hadn't been for a freak by-election result in 2006, which saw the Lib Dems pull off a 100/1 upset, DUNFERMLINE and WEST FIFE wouldn't be even on the radar as a vulnerable Labour seat. I expect that they will win it back on a proper General Election turnout, especially given that Gordon Brown may enjoy a rare personal vote as he lives in the constituency. Equally, I don't think they should be outsiders against the Tories in EAST RENFREWSHIRE. There is scant evidence of a Tory revival in Scotland.

BEST BETS ON LABOUR

30pts LABOUR TO GET LESS THAN 220.5 SEATS @ 1.83 (SKYBET)
SELL LABOUR SEATS @ 206

8pts LABOUR TO WIN DUNFERMLINE & WEST FIFE @ 3.0 (SPORTINGBET)
5pts LABOUR TO WIN EAST RENFREWSHIRE @ 2.2 (SPORTINGBET)

BEST BETS ON LIB DEMS

As mentioned above, the key point about the Lib Dems is how their vote is particularly concentrated in the relatively small number of seats they target. They are gradually replacing Labour as the party of the inner-cities, and can expect to pick up seats in Liverpool, Sheffield, Hull, Newcastle and London. University towns are a stronghold, to add to their long-standing tradtions in the South-West and rural Scotland.

Two recent polls are worth mentioning. ICM's marginals poll for the Guardian suggested that the Clegg-bounce was occuring almost entirely within Lab-held targets, rather than the Tory equivalent. And a couple of days earlier, Yougov's regionals poll showed huge swings from Labour to the Lib Dems in the North of England.

The best Lib Dem bets range from odds-on bankers to some tasty outsiders. Big-hitters should have no fears taking the 1.57 about CITY OF DURHAM, especially given its high student population. They need a 4% swing from Labour in this ideal seat, way below the 13% regional swing recorded last week.

Usually in elections, the very biggest names receive a significant personal boost in their seats, and often the surrounding areas. Anyone who watched the debate must surely now know that Nick Clegg is a Sheffield MP, given the number of times he mentioned it, and he can expect to gain SHEFFIELD CENTRAL at the very least. Critically, a significant chunk of the voters in this redrawn constituency were previously in Clegg's Sheffield Hallam, so he would have probably benefitted from a personal vote even without the massive advances of the past fortnight.

My old constituency HULL NORTH is by far their best chance in an Old Labour city that has been turning towards the Lib Dems for years at council level. Again, they should be able to rely on a large university population here, adding to an already impressive regional swing. All three Newcastle seats look within range, the easiest of which should be NEWCASTLE NORTH, while NEWCASTLE-UPON-TYNE CENTRAL is also fair value at 2/1. Again, you may have noticed Clegg referring to this city's Lib Dem council and its return to building council housing, one of the forgotten issues of this election.

In addition to these odds-on bets, the Lib Dems appeal as outsiders in numerous seats. In London, EALING CENTRAL & ACTON, LEYTON & WANSTEAD and WALTHAMSTOW are all plausible gains from Labour in areas where they are increasingly organised. Frank Dobson also looks vulnerable in HOLBORN & ST PANCRAS.

Back in fertile North-East territory, BLYTH VALLEY and REDCAR both look realistic targets. And if there's to be a Clegg-effect in South Yorkshire where he's an MP, PENISTON and STOCKBRIDGE isn't the worst value 6/1 bet out there.

Finally, though the price has been halved since a local poll put them well in front, the Lib Dems could come from fourth place to win Luton South. This is another seat sure to receive media coverage, as Esther Rantzen is running in protest at outgoing Labour MP Margaret Moran's expenses claims. Esther's campaign is apparently struggling, with most defectors of Labour voters
preferring the Lib Dems. Their candidate has a long history in Luton politics, previously for Labour until defecting in 2003. He looks sure to pick up much of the previous Labour vote amongst Luton's Muslim community.

18pts LIB DEMS TO WIN OVER 85.5 SEATS (SKYBET)
BUY LIB DEM SEATS @ 89

20pts LIB DEMS TO WIN CITY OF DURHAM @ 8/15 (HILLS, BET365)
15pts LIB DEMS TO WIN SHEFFIELD CENTRAL @ 10/11 (HILLS)
10pts LIB DEMS TO WIN HULL NORTH @ 1.83 (LADBROKES)
10pts LIB DEMS TO WIN NEWCASTLE NORTH @ 1.8 (VCBET)
6pts LIB DEMS TO WIN REDCAR @ 2.75 (LADBROKES)
5pts LIB DEMS TO WIN HOLBORN & ST PANCRAS @ 3.25 (PADDY POWER, LADBROKES, CORALS)
5pts LIB DEMS TO WIN NEWCASTLE-UPON-TYNE CENTRAL @ 3.0 (PADDY POWER, LADBROKES, CORALS)
4pts LIB DEMS TO WIN BLYTH VALLEY @ 4.0 (LADBROKES, HILLS)
3pts LIB DEMS TO WIN WALTHAMSTOW @ 4.0 (LADBROKES)
3pts LIB DEMS TO WIN LEYTON/WANSTEAD @ 5.5 (CORAL)
6pts LIB DEMS TO WIN EALING CENTRAL/ACTON @ 2.75 (VCBET, PADDY POWER, STAN JAMES, LADBROKES)
3pts LIB DEMS TO WIN LUTON SOUTH @ 6/1 (TOTE, BETFRED, CORALS, SKYBET)
2pts LIB DEMS TO WIN PENISTON & STOCKBRIDGE @ 6/1 (HILLS)

BEST OF THE REST

A few words now about those pivotal Tory/Lib Dem marginals. As stated above, I've estimated no net change overall between them, although several will change hands.

Lib Dem MPs are generally very good at building a personal vote in their constituencies, and are hard to replace. Still up to a dozen seats are vulnerable to a resurgent Tory party, most notably; St Austell & Newquay, Carshalton & Wallington, Sutton & Cheam, Torbay and Herefordshire South. In return, they have a good chance of picking up Tory seats such as Eastbourne, St Albans, Wells, Filton & Bradley Stoke.

Boundary changes also confuse matters slightly, altering the effects of incumbency. So on the one hand, the Lib Dems could struggle to retain Chippenham, which they hold on notional figures, but where they have no sitting MP. Alternatively, Solihull has a Lib Dem MP, yet is notionally Conservative on the adjusted figures. My prediction is for Lorely Burt to hold off the Tory challenge thanks to the benefit of incumbency.

Finally, of all the various independents challenging in this election, BOB SPINK could be the one to grab the headlines. Spink has been elected three times as Tory MP for Castle Point, winning the seat back from Labour in 2001. He was expelled from the party a couple of years ago after a series of spats, including a row over anti-immigration leaflets.

Spink is running a well-financed campaign against a young, centrally imposed candidate. I suspect his brand of right-wing Euroscepticism is closer to the mood of this particular electorate than Cameron's Conservatism, and will ensure he retains a substantial chunk of previous supporters. Moreover, given a long record of championing local issues, now he's shorn of the Tory tag, Spink may be able to attract decent numbers from disillusioned Labour voters.

ADVISED BET

4pts BOB SPINK TO WIN CASTLE POINT @ 3/1 (GENERAL)

China Open Snooker Preview

2010-03-28T07:18:00.000-07:00

We've only three weeks to wait until the highlight of the snooker season, (and in my view the sporting season), the World Championships. Before then though, starting early tomorrow, we have the China Open.

The proximity of this event to the World Championship, as with others that had previously been unfortunate enough to take this late position in the annual schedule, has a habit of playing havoc with the formbook. Some of the leading candidates, in particular Ronnie O'Sullivan, have viewed an overseas trip at this time to be an unwelcome diversion. Others, such as last year's champion Peter Ebdon, have suddenly found form following a poor year, presumably because they'd been working hard ahead of the big one.

Most of them are at least 'match fit', as last week saw the final two groups of the Championship League. Marco Fu emerged as champion, but I think we must treat that form with a very large pinch of salt. The format of that league event, where the top-four progress to a best of five knockout stage, often means those producing the best overall form don't win. That was certainly the case with Fu. Based on the superior guide of total frames won, last week's most in-form players were Mark Williams, Peter Ebdon, STEPHEN MAGUIRE, Jamie Cope and MARK ALLEN.

Any of those are very plausible winners in China, but as usual the draw makes certain picks more obvious than others. Williams and Cope, for instance, meet one another in the last-32, after which they would be scheduled to play world no.1 John Higgins. In short, both the top and bottom quarters are extremely competitive, and I am therefore happy to leave those sections alone throughout the opening rounds, until we see who emerges.

The other two are markedly weaker. The third quarter contains at best just three plausible winners, one of whom is Joe Perry, who has endured an awful year. The others are O'Sullivan and ALI CARTER. Such a draw means Ronnie deserves more respect than he normally would in a low-grade overseas event, but he's still well worth taking on. By process of elimination, the efficient Carter looks a solid bet at 5/1 to win this quarter. He's very good at beating inferior opponents, and wouldn't have to play Ronnie until the decisive quarter-final.

The second quarter contains many more capable players, but most have struggled this year. Nevertheless, I will be keeping an eye on the likes of Ryan Day and Barry Hawkins in the early stages to see if they improve. You may recall in the last ranking event, we had a couple of speculative bets on Hawkins and Higginson from a similar draw, that promised much before ultimately disappointing. I'm tempted with both, especially Higginson, but will wait to see how he gets on in his wildcard match first, as an odds-on win there shouldn't make much difference to his outright price.

The two big guns in here are Maguire and Allen at 14/1 and 20/1 respectively, which represents decent each-way value. They are hot favourites against Hawkins and Graeme Dott respectively in their openers, and would play one another should both deliver. If as expected, one of them reaches the quarters, we would be on roughly a 15/2 shot to win the event and a 7/2 shot to reach the final. Whoever they play in that quarter, our man would be favourite. Moreover, as this top half is significantly easier - with no O'Sullivan, Higgins or Murphy - the semi final task won't be impossible either.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

10pts ALI CARTER TO WIN 3RD QUARTER @ 5/1 (BOYLESPORTS)

OUTRIGHT

8pts ew STEPHEN MAGUIRE @ 14/1 (SKYBET, BETFRED, TOTE, CORALS)
6pts ew MARK ALLEN @ 20/1 (TOTE, BETFRED, BLUESQ, HILLS)

Weekly Golf Column Update

2009-10-26T09:47:00.000-07:00

As anyone who has been following my weekly golf column will need no reminding, I have been on a truly terrible run. After the glory days of 2008, where my annual profit topped 600 points, with just a few weeks left of the 2009 campaign I'm well over 200 points down. All I can do is apologise to those who have been following my tips, and to say that I genuinely do share your suffering. This has been my worst run of golf betting in over a decade, and most certainly since turning professional six years ago.

Now anyone who knows anything about gambling will surely understand that bad runs do happen, and with that in mind I'm trying to stay positive. However, I'd be lying if I didn't admit that last week in particular was an utterly depressing experience.

The right course of action is to constantly assess and scrutinise strategies while always keeping an eye on the longer term trends. Here are some of my current thoughts on the matter, and if anyone has any further opinions or constructive criticism to add, they'll be gratefully received.

I'm loathe to discuss luck, lest I sound like a whinging gambler. It is important, however, to accept that luck always plays a key part in gambling, whether good or bad. During that magnificent 2008 run, I had more than my share of good luck. Players winning close contests with a great putt on the final hole, or opponents making a critical mistake on the final green. I'm reminded particularly of Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano winning the British Masters at 80/1 after several play-off holes, having repeatedly looked looked down and out.

Such things make or break a season, and this time the worm has completely turned. See at the bottom of this article, my list of wins and second places from 2009. Then compare them to the 2008 list. I've backed 24 runners-up this time, so given that each winner is worth an average of about 60 points, four winners would have covered the entire annual loss.

Whereas Castano, or 150/1 winner Felipe Aguilar built my reputation, I've had no such luck with the big priced candidates this time around. 125/1 chance Ross McGowan led by two with five to play before getting caught, 80/1 Peter Lawrie by a similar margin. 125/1 Scott Piercy led by four at one stage in the FBR Open, yet ended up returning virtually nothing in a five-way tie for 5th. Equally, Gareth Maybin has twice approached the closing holes with a winning chance at a big price, only to collapse and finish 6th. Narrowly missing the places has been a regular frustration this year, and again over the year, it really adds up.

Its impossible to estimate the exact impact, but I reckon the 'luck differential' between 2008 and 2009 must have been worth at least 400 points. However, it can't explain everything.

Much more can be explained by some of the results this year. I would feel a lot worse if I was missing winners every week, but many of this year's champions have been completely unbackable, particularly in Europe which is bad for me as I tend to lay out more on the Euro Tour. All four major winners were 100/1+ outsiders, and I would defy anyone to say they picked any of Wen-Tang Lin, Anthony Kang, Shane Lowry, Jeppe Huhldahl, Christian Cevear, Rafael Cabrera-Bello or Michael Jonzon in the week they won at enormous odds.

All of this, though frustrating, is a lesser concern to me than the wider lack of players in contention. Last week, eleven selections failed to produce a single top-10, and that to me is indefensible. But why? Is there something I'm doing differently?

I don't think so. I'm still using the same selection techniques, the same in-depth statistical analysis of each venue and the players concerned, yet its not producing anywhere near the same number of contenders.

Some of this may be explained by course conditions. It seems that more than ever in 2009, we've had wet golf courses, producing softened conditions and target golf, most memorably in the US Open. Those conditions tend to produce putting contests, and critically from my perspective, previous course form in drier conditions becomes almost irrelevant. Hopefully, this is a blip and normality will resume before long.

I realise it must be very frustrating to see the repeated selection of players who have let us down; see for instance Ian Poulter, Ross Fisher and Danny Willett. This is a real conundrum; knowing when to abandon a player. Earlier in the year, I tipped the promising Rafael Cabrera-Bello several times before abandoning him, only to see him pop up at an enormous price a couple of months later. In this last case though, I have no regrets as he was completely out of form.

A player like Willett is different though. Not only is he an outstanding prospect, but he has a very good return this year in terms of top-10 finishes and is normally available at decent odds. We did get a place at 90/1 at Celtic Manor, and that pays for quite a few losing bets, but overall he definitely deserves a payout week. My feeling is that, on certain types of course that favour his low-scoring game, he must be perservered with.

Fisher and Poulter are less clear-cut. With the former, the market has responded to his progress, and while he will eventually win again, he's too short to stick with blindly. However, Poulter's career win ratio is impressive, and I do believe he's improved markedly in the last 18 months. So I expect that Ian will be retained as a regular pick for some time.

Likewise, we must remember Paul Casey. During the summer of 2008, I identified Casey as a big improver and backed him several times at decent odds without success. Almost as soon as I stopped, he won three times in a short space of time and shot up to No.3 in the world. Frustratingly, I only backed one of those three wins, and that was at a much shorter price than we'd been used to just a few weeks earlier.

The other key factor worth mentioning is 'confidence'. Some gamblers try to take a more rigid, mathematical outlook but my years of gambling experience has left me sceptical of too rigid an approach. If the answers can be found mathematically, bookmakers will soon learn the right techniques too. With golf betting in particular, one needs to have a 'feel' for a course, or a tournament, or whether a player is 'overdue' a change of luck and a place payout.

This last point is the hardest thing to address, because nobody is immune to positive or negative thinking. When all is going well in gambling, its easy to be positive and that tends to produce good results. Likewise, the opposite is true. I'm still tearing myself apart over the penultimate two events, won by Lee Westwood and Martin Laird. Both were on my final shortlist, and both had been selected very recently. Ultimately though, both ever so slightly missed out on the final staking plan. Inevitably, one goes through the psychological torment of constantly re-assessing those decisions.

So what now? Its critically important not to panic. Largely, I think I'm doing the right things, and that they'll pay off in the long-term. All I can really say is that; I will continue to put in the hours, scour the formbook and apply these previously very successful strategies.

2009 WINNERS

NEDBANK CHALLENGE - HENRIK STENSON 7/1
OPEN DE ANDALUCIA - SOREN KJELDSEN 33/1
AP INVITATIONAL - TIGER WOODS 13/5
BALLANTINES C'SHIP - THONGCHAI JAIDEE 33/1
PLAYERS C'SHIP - HENRIK STENSON 50/1
BMW PGA C'SHIP - PAUL CASEY 16/1
ST JUDE CLASSIC - BRIAN GAY 35/1
BRITISH SENIORS OPEN - LOREN ROBERTS 20/1
BUICK OPEN - TIGER WOODS 15/8
WGC-BRIDGESTONE - TIGER WOODS 7/4

2009 RUNNERS-UP
　
MEMORIAL - JIM FURYK 25/1
SINGAPORE OPEN - ERNIE ELS 12/1
HONG KONG OPEN - FRANCESCO MOLINARI 45/1
DUNLOP PHOENIX - GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO 25/1
WORLD CUP - SPAIN 16/1
JOBURG OPEN - ANDREW MCLARDY 28/1
MERCEDES - ANTHONY KIM 9/1
ABU DHABI - MARTIN KAYMER 20/1
HEINEKEN - ROSS MCGOWAN 125/1
INDONESIAN OPEN - SIMON DYSON 20/1
INDONESIAN OPEN - ALEXANDER NOREN 25/1
AP INVITATIONAL - SEAN O'HAIR 33/1
PORTUGESE MASTERS - GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO 25/1
ST JUDE CLASSIC - DAVID TOMS 16/1
US OPEN - PHIL MICKELSON 20/1
TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP - DAVID TOMS 25/1
US BANK CHAMPIONSHIP - JOHN MALLINGER 33/1
BRITISH SENIORS OPEN - FRED FUNK 25/1
US SENIORS OPEN - GREG NORMAN 14/1
RENO-TAHOE OPEN - MARTIN LAIRD 66/1
KLM OPEN - PETER LAWRIE 66/1
BARCLAYS CLASSIC - ERNIE ELS 40/1
BARCLAYS CLASSIC - PADRAIG HARRINGTON 22/1
BMW CHAMPIONSHIP - JIM FURYK 25/1

　

World Snooker Championship Betting Preview

2009-04-16T08:48:00.000-07:00

Forget Christmas, Easter and the rest, the best 17 days of the calendar are at last upon us in the form of the Betfred.com World Snooker Championships.

To look at the betting, it would be easy to conclude that snooker was a one-horse race. Defending champion Ronnie O'Sullivan starts his bid for a fourth title at just 9/4, which I'm pretty sure is the shortest that this perennially under-priced character has ever been at Sheffield.

The reality is very different, pointing to a sport that is as wide open as ever. The eight top-grade tournaments this season have produced seven different winners, 13 different finalists and 19 different semi-finalists.

In making Ronnie such a short price, no doubt people are thinking back to last year, when the Rocket swept all before him without breaking out of a sweat. But there is one very good reason to expect things to be different this time around; the draw. Last year, the only realistic threat he faced on route to the final came from Mark Williams, and even his opponent in the final, Ali Carter, had never previously won a ranking tournament.

Ronnie's trouble over the years at Sheffield has been maintaining his focus for the full 17 days, tending to ruin his chance by losing one session badly in one of the longer, latter-stage matches. While his attitude has generally improved from its lowest points, (such as walking out of the 2006 UK Championship quarter-final), he is still not totally reliable. Its only five months since he effectively gave up against Joe Perry in that same event, conceding one frame when only 20 odd points behind. Those weaknesses weren't an issue last year, arguably because none of his opponents put him under any serious pressure. Even if Ronnie had lost interest in one match, he would have been too far in front for it to make a difference.

This time, I'm sure he will be tested on more than one occasion. First round opponent Stuart Bingham seems unlikely to present too many difficulties, but the likely opponents in every round afterwards are more than capable of capitalising should Ronnie start giving them opportunities. Probable last-16 opponent Mark Allen is an outstanding prospect, and well capable of winning their match. In the quarters, Ronnie would likely meet either Ryan Day, conquerer of the defending champion last year and undisputed holder of the "Best player never to have won a ranking event' title, or PETER EBDON.

Ebdon is particularly interesting. The 2002 champion had looked finished as a top-class player until bouncing back to win last month's China Open. There are few players better suited to the long, high-pressure matches of the Crucible than Ebdon, who has reached the quarters here a hugely impressive eleven times. It seems that as he's got older, Ebdon has saved all his best snooker for the spring.

Furthermore there is no love lost between him and Ronnie and should they meet in the quarters, parallels will inevitably be drawn with their 2005 clash at the same stage. On that occasion, slow-playing Ebdon drove his opponent to distraction and ground out a 13-11 win.

In truth, even if Ebdon could represent a bit of value at a nice price, I expect O'Sullivan to come through these early tests, though the danger is that they might take a lot out of him. And that could be costly in the latter stages, with his main rivals yet to come. If the draw pans out as expected, he will face either Mark Selby or John Higgins in the semis, either of whom would present a massive obstacle over the longer matches. Indeed, Higgins ended Ronnie's challenge two years ago on the way to his second title, and again in China last month.

I find it very hard to take a strong view about which player will reach the final from that top half of the draw. All three of those big-names hold strong chances, and there are several other potential challengers. I've already mentioned Day and Ebdon in Ronnie's quarter, and in the next section Joe Perry, Jamie Cope, Graeme Dott and Ricky Walden are all well capable of springing an upset.

All of this points to focussing most of my attention, and cash, on the other half of the draw instead. Having made a fool of myself tipping him in the past, I'm wary of going in too heavily on STEPHEN MAGUIRE, but its hard not to be attracted by his 8/1 quote. Quite simply, I cannot see anybody stopping Maguire reaching the quarter-finals, by which stage he will be a shorter price and hopefully have played himself into form.

Maguire is too good to go through his career without ever winning this title. (OK, I know the same could have been said about Jimmy White). On his day, he is a breakbuilding machine; comparable to Ronnie and Hendry at their peak. I was fortunate enough earlier in the season to witness his destruction of NEIL ROBERTSON in the Masters from close up, and it was as good a performance as I can remember. That's not the first time he's annihalated Robertson; Maguire hammered the Aussie star 8-0 in one session here last year. On that form, only Ronnie and perhaps Higgins could live with him. And he won't meet either of them until the final, if at all.

For all his talent, Stephen has let himself down at crucial moments at the Crucible. After despatching Robertson in last year's championship, he never found the same fluency in the quarter-final, enabling Joe Perry to cause the upset of the round. A year earlier, he led Higgins 14-10 going into the final session of the semi, only to crumble under pressure. Nevertheless, you have to think that at some stage in his career, 'On Fire' Maguire will put it all together when it matters.

After what look like a couple of straightforward rounds, Maguire is scheduled to meet either Carter or Robertson. Its hard to see anyone else in this bottom quarter reaching the semis, as all the qualifiers look weak. On this year's form Carter would have to be the pick, but at twice the odds Robbo looks slightly better value.

After all, while the 'Melbourne Machine' has rarely impressed this year apart from when winning the Bahrain Championship, he is a class act and has produced the goods at the Crucible before. Three years ago, he was painfully unlucky to lose to eventual winner Graeme Dott, and was edged out in a classic last-16 match against O'Sullivan in 2007. The suspicion with Robertson is that he's perhaps not the most dedicated professional over the whole year, but its worth taking a chance at these odds that he's ready for the season's premiere event.

The third quarter contains at least four plausible winners. 2005 champion Shaun Murphy is the shortest price to add to his UK title, and is greatly respected given an excellent record at the Crucible, which is close to his home. However, while I expect he'll trade at shorter odds, and should have little trouble getting past Andrew Higginson in round one, Murphy hasn't been particularly impressive this season, even when winning that UK title.

My view is that he could come a cropper against MARCO FU in the last-16. When the pair met in the UK final, Murphy edged out the Hong Kong player in a decider, but that miniscule difference isn't enough to warrant the wide disparity in their odds. Fu is arguably the most under-rated player around; not flashy by any means, but a very effective break-builder with a solid temperament. 33/1 certainly seems a big price for the player at No.7 in the provisional rankings.

Its frankly an insult to Fu, and others for that matter, that he is a bigger price than Ding Junhui. Ding's 20/1 quote seems based on the hype a couple of years back, when he was widely predicted to challenge O'Sullivan for the No.1 spot. Since breaking down in tears in the 2007 Masters final at Wembley, Ding hasn't reached a single ranking event semi-final and he arrives in Sheffield with his top-16 spot seriously in peril. The best bet of the first round could be fellow Chinese prodigy Liang Wenbo to take out his more famous opponent at 2/1, an upset that would ensure the odds about Maguire, Robertson and Fu all tumble.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

12pts win STEPHEN MAGUIRE @ 8/1 (GENERAL, 10.0 BETFAIR)
3pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 25/1 (GENERAL)
3pts ew MARCO FU @ 33/1 (SPORTINGBET, STANJAMES, BETFRED, PADDYPOWER, CENTREBET)
1.5pts ew PETER EBDON @ 40/1 (GENERAL)

N.B. As well as several pre-tournament articles, I shall also be writing a daily tips column for the Betfair blog. They can be found at http://betting.betfair.com

Masters Snooker Preview

2009-01-10T17:29:00.000-08:00

Despite the fact that it carries no ranking points, the Masters remains one of the most prestigious events in the snooker calendar, probably 3rd behind the World and UK Championships. Rightly so too, as this is the only tournament where all the top-ranked players are guaranteed to reach the last-16 stage. Normally, at least five or six bite the dust in the previous round, usually opening up the draw for lesser names to reach the latter stages. There's also the fact that there is only one table in use throughout, adding a further championship feel to the venue.

It all adds up to a tournament where the formbook has consistently stood up over the years. Nobody has won from beyond fourth place in the betting since the late Paul Hunter won the first of his three Masters titles in 2001, and that was hardly a massive surprise. Just as Stephen Hendry dominated this event when he ruled the snooker world back in the 1990s, RONNIE O'SULLIVAN has very much been 'Top Dog' at Wembley in recent years. Three times champion to date, Ronnie's last five Masters have produced two titles and two runners-up spots, losing deciding frames in the final on both occasions. Even last year's first-round exit was hardly a disgrace, as it came at the hands of World No.2 Stephen Maguire, again in a decider. This venue, near enough to enable him to return home between matches, generally seems to bring out the best of O'Sullivan in front of an adoring crowd.

As always, Ronnie is a very unreliable betting proposition. As far as I can recall, this is the first time I've ever tipped him before an event. Because of his massive popularity, Ronnie nearly always starts at terrible value odds. This was always the case in the 33 months that he went without winning a ranking title up until December 2007. However, on his form since then 3/1 is a perfectly reasonable price, with three ranking titles during that period including a third World Championship. Indeed had he defended his UK title last month, I doubt Ronnie would be starting at more than 2/1 now. He didn't win that event though, courtesy of a disastrous session that instantly rekindled memories of past misdemeanours. Having looked in quite awesome form in the first part of the match, he lost the last seven frames to Joe Perry, including one conceded when just 23 points down with several reds remaining.

That was indefensible, and has to be factored in as a possibility whenever considering a bet on O'Sullivan. And it doesn't help that he is drawn to meet Perry, who was quite outstanding in that session, in the first round at Wembley. This looks poised to be a great match, as even before the Telford result, their last two matches had gone to a deciding frame. I fancy Ronnie to win, playing impressively, and sparking a typically massive gamble. Remember the last time Ronnie let himself down in the UK Championships, when walking out of the 2006 quarter-final? His response was a determined, disciplined performance at Wembley, slaughtering Ding Junhui in the final. History could well repeat itself.

Though there are many other potential challengers, none have consistently shown their best form for a while. Maguire looks the main threat in Ronnie's half of the draw, and has at least reached a couple of semis this year, but still played some pretty erratic snooker when reaching that position in Telford. Nevertheless, he should reach the semis again at least.

Shaun Murphy turned a terrible run around to win that latest event, though again hasn't convinced me that he's at quite the consistent standard seen throughout 2007. Murphy's draw is anything but straightforward too, snared in a quarter that includes four plausible winners in the form of himself, Ding, Grand Prix champion John Higgins and Telford runner-up Marco Fu. Expect a series of close matches to determine that mini-race to the semi-final.

It would be easy to make a case for defending champion Mark Selby, were it not for single-figured odds. He's clearly a class performer bubbling under the surface, ready to return to his world-class best at any time. It may be of some relevance that Selby last week won the first group of the latest Championship League, so there is some very recent form in the book. And if he can repeat his superb performance in the Premier League semi when thrashing Hendry 5-0, I doubt anybody could live with Selby. But looking purely at results, he's simply not reliable enough to take such short prices about. After all, the Masters remains one of only two professional titles to his name. Even his first-round doesn't look entirely straightforward, as both potential opponents have beaten him in big matches recently; Ricky Walden in the Shanghai Masters semi-final and Mark King in the World Championship.

In the same top quarter, I prefer MARK ALLEN. I'm convinced this prolific break-builder is going to the very top, and am determined to stay loyal until he wins his first event. While he's available at 33/1 that remains a perfectly legitimate strategy. Moreover, I make him the bet of the first round to beat fellow prodigy Judd Trump at 8/11. The pair met in the penultimate ranking tournament in Bahrain, with Allen scoring a resounding 5-1 win. No doubt Trump is a star of the future, but for me he still looks very tactically naive. At this stage, Allen looks further ahead on their respective roads to the top.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

20pts win RONNIE O'SULLIVAN @ 3/1 (CORAL, BETFAIR, (11/4 BOYLESPORTS, REFUND IF MURPHY WINS)
3pts ew MARK ALLEN @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 35/1 BOYLESPORTS)

ROUND 1

15pts MARK ALLEN @ 8/11 (VS TRUMP) (GENERAL)

N.B. I shall also be writing a daily tipping column for the Betfair blog throughout the tournament, which can be found here http://betting.betfair.com/betting/snooker/masters/

Weekly Golf Betting Column Latest

2008-10-08T12:28:00.000-07:00

Just a quick reminder for fans of my weekly golf column that it can be viewed free of charge online at www.golf-monthly.co.uk every Wednesday. I am also writing for the Betfair blog at http://betting.betfair.com including two regular golf columns every Tuesday, plus a wide range of preview and in-running articles for all the Major tournaments as well as the big snooker events. Also starting today, I shall be writing a weekly preview of the golf speciality markets for www.puntingace.com

My best season to date recently got even better, when Gonzalo Fernandez Castano became my second 100/1+ winner of the 2008 campaign in the British Masters. The annual staking plan is now showing a profit of 564 points with just a few weeks to go. Highlights this season include:

GONZALO FERNANDEZ CASTANO WON 100/1 BRITISH MASTERS
CAMILO VILLEGAS WON 33/1 BMW CHAMPIONSHIP
DARREN CLARKE WON 40/1 KLM OPEN
PAUL MCGINLEY 2ND 40/1 KLM OPEN
LEE WESTWOOD 2ND 40/1 WGC-BRIDGESTONE INVITATIONAL
ANTONY KIM WON 28/1 A T & T NATIONAL
KENNY PERRY WON 12/1 BUICK OPEN
COLIN MONTGOMERIE 2ND 55/1 FRENCH OPEN
TIGER WOODS WON 11/4 US OPEN
JUSTIN LEONARD WON 33/1 ST JUDE CLASSIC
JEEV-MILKHA SINGH WON 20/1 AUSTRIAN OPEN
KENNY PERRY WON 33/1 MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT
OLIVER WILSON 2ND 33/1 ITALIAN OPEN
ADAM SCOTT WON 12/1 BYRON NELSON CHAMPIONSHIP
AARON BADDELEY 2ND 28/1 HERITAGE CLASSIC
GRAEME MCDOWELL WON 30/1 BALLANTINES CHAMPIONSHIP
JOHN SENDEN 2nd 80/1 HONDA CLASSIC
BRIAN GAY WON 80/1 MAYAKOBA CLASSIC
FELIPE AGUILAR WON 150/1 INDONESIAN OPEN
JEEV-MILKHA SINGH 2nd 33/1 INDONESIAN OPEN
MARTIN KAYMER WON 60/1 ABU DHABI CHAMPIONSHIP
RICHARD STERNE WON 16/1 JOBURG OPEN
ADAM SCOTT WON 16/1 QATAR MASTERS
PETER LONARD WON 14/1 AUSTRALIAN PGA
DAVID SMAIL 2nd 40/1 AUSTRALIAN PGA
BRANDT SNEDEKER 2nd 40/1 AUSTRALIAN OPEN
AARON BADDELEY WON 10/1 MASTERCARD MASTERS
MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ WON 25/1 HONG KONG OPEN
ROSS FISHER 2nd 100/1 HSBC CHAMPIONS TROPHY
IAN POULTER WON 14/1 DUNLOP PHOENIX OPEN
SCOTLAND WON 25/1 WORLD CUP

And don't forget, I also offer a comprehensive subscription-based tipping service including a month's free trial to start. Anyone interested should contact me at paulmotty@hotmail.com

Golf Betting Column Update

2008-09-10T06:49:00.000-07:00

Just a quick reminder for fans of my weekly golf column that it can be viewed free of charge online at www.golf-monthly.co.uk every Wednesday. I am also writing regular betting articles for the Betfair blog at http://betting.betfair.com including two regular columns on Tuesday, plus a wide range of preview and in-running articles for all the Major tournaments.

My season's statistics continue to thrive. After last weekend's success, when I advised Camilo Villegas to win the BMW Championship at 33/1, my annual staking plan is showing a profit of 573 points. Highlights this season include:

CAMILO VILLEGAS WON 33/1 BMW CHAMPIONSHIP
DARREN CLARKE WON 40/1 KLM OPEN
PAUL MCGINLEY 2ND 40/1 KLM OPEN
LEE WESTWOOD 2ND 40/1 WGC-BRIDGESTONE INVITATIONAL
ANTONY KIM WON 28/1 A T & T NATIONAL
KENNY PERRY WON 12/1 BUICK OPEN
COLIN MONTGOMERIE 2ND 55/1 FRENCH OPEN
TIGER WOODS WON 11/4 US OPEN
JUSTIN LEONARD WON 33/1 ST JUDE CLASSIC
JEEV-MILKHA SINGH WON 20/1 AUSTRIAN OPEN
KENNY PERRY WON 33/1 MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT
OLIVER WILSON 2ND 33/1 ITALIAN OPEN
ADAM SCOTT WON 12/1 BYRON NELSON CHAMPIONSHIP
AARON BADDELEY 2ND 28/1 HERITAGE CLASSIC
GRAEME MCDOWELL WON 30/1 BALLANTINES CHAMPIONSHIP
JOHN SENDEN 2nd 80/1 HONDA CLASSIC
BRIAN GAY WON 80/1 MAYAKOBA CLASSIC
FELIPE AGUILAR WON 150/1 INDONESIAN OPEN
JEEV-MILKHA SINGH 2nd 33/1 INDONESIAN OPEN
MARTIN KAYMER WON 60/1 ABU DHABI CHAMPIONSHIP
RICHARD STERNE WON 16/1 JOBURG OPEN
ADAM SCOTT WON 16/1 QATAR MASTERS
PETER LONARD WON 14/1 AUSTRALIAN PGA
DAVID SMAIL 2nd 40/1 AUSTRALIAN PGA
BRANDT SNEDEKER 2nd 40/1 AUSTRALIAN OPEN
AARON BADDELEY WON 10/1 MASTERCARD MASTERS
MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ WON 25/1 HONG KONG OPEN
ROSS FISHER 2nd 100/1 HSBC CHAMPIONS TROPHY
IAN POULTER WON 14/1 DUNLOP PHOENIX OPEN
SCOTLAND WON 25/1 WORLD CUP

And don't forget, I also offer a comprehensive subscription-based tipping service including a month's free trial to start. Anyone interested should contact me at paulmotty@hotmail.com

Weekly Golf Betting Column Latest

2008-06-08T15:59:00.000-07:00

Just a quick reminder for fans of my weekly golf column that it can be viewed free of charge online at www.golf-monthly.co.uk every Wednesday. I am also writing regular betting articles for the Betfair blog at http://betting.betfair.com including two regular columns on Tuesday, plus a wide range of preview and in-running articles for all the Major tournaments.

The latest weekend was a particular highlight of what has been a memorable year to date for the weekly column, as I tipped both winners either side of the Atlantic. Jeev-Milkha Singh was advised at 20/1 to win the Austrian Open, while Justin Leonard won the St Jude Classic at 33/1. Highlights this season include:

JUSTIN LEONARD WON 33/1 ST JUDE CLASSIC
JEEV-MILKHA SINGH WON 20/1 AUSTRIAN OPEN
KENNY PERRY WON 33/1 MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT
OLIVER WILSON 2ND 33/1 ITALIAN OPEN
ADAM SCOTT WON 12/1 BYRON NELSON CHAMPIONSHIP
AARON BADDELEY 2ND 28/1 HERITAGE CLASSIC
GRAEME MCDOWELL WON 30/1 BALLANTINES CHAMPIONSHIP
JOHN SENDEN 2nd 80/1 HONDA CLASSIC
BRIAN GAY WON 80/1 MAYAKOBA CLASSIC
FELIPE AGUILAR WON 150/1 INDONESIAN OPEN
JEEV-MILKHA SINGH 2nd 33/1 INDONESIAN OPEN
MARTIN KAYMER WON 60/1 ABU DHABI CHAMPIONSHIP
RICHARD STERNE WON 16/1 JOBURG OPEN
ADAM SCOTT WON 16/1 QATAR MASTERS
PETER LONARD WON 14/1 AUSTRALIAN PGA
DAVID SMAIL 2nd 40/1 AUSTRALIAN PGA
BRANDT SNEDEKER 2nd 40/1 AUSTRALIAN OPEN
AARON BADDELEY WON 10/1 MASTERCARD MASTERS
MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ WON 25/1 HONG KONG OPEN
ROSS FISHER 2nd 100/1 HSBC CHAMPIONS TROPHY
IAN POULTER WON 14/1 DUNLOP PHOENIX OPEN
SCOTLAND WON 25/1 WORLD CUP

And don't forget, I also offer a comprehensive subscription-based tipping service including a month's free trial to start. Anyone interested should contact me at paulmotty@hotmail.com

Euro 2008 Portfolio

2008-06-06T04:53:00.000-07:00

When Greece won the last Euros, it was widely interpreted as a massive shock. Of course they did start as rank outsiders so in that sense it was a shock, but I recall several shrewd characters who thought they were under-rated beforehand and duly profitted. They certainly weren't unbackable.

It has become an indisputable fact that international football, especially the final knockout stages of tournaments, is far more wide open than the betting suggests. Austria are completely out of their depth, but besides them and perhaps the other hosts Switzerland, there is very little to choose between the rest.

In my view, the main reason is that, in stark contrast to club football where the cheque book and transfer market dictate success, international football remains a test of coaching, strategy and team unity. Even the biggest countries are forced to pick from the players available, unable to dig themselves out of a hole with a multi-million pound signing. There are numerous examples over the last two decades - Greece, Czech Republic, Turkey, Denmark, Republic of Ireland - of teams that had very limited strength of depth on paper, but overachieved because of the continuity and spirit within their set-up.

As usual, my plan is to look for value trades on teams that have the ability to reach the latter stages and see their odds shorten dramatically. Examination of the draw is essential. One finalist will come from Groups A and B, one from C and D. The first of those halves contains Austria and Switzerland, who are hard to fancy. Austria are no-hopers, well worth taking on heavily in each game. Without being hosts, they wouldn't have had a prayer of qualifying. The Swiss are somewhat better - in fact I backed them in various forms to do well at the last world cup and they did qualify for the last-16. However, their supposed home advantage, (lets face it, the Swiss aren't known for creating a hostile atmosphere!), is more than adequately reflected in their odds.

Of the other six in that half, Germany stand out. Coach Joachim Low is widely credited as being the coaching brain behind their impressive 2006 World Cup campaign, which was headed by Jurgen Klinsmann. The pair added attacking brilliance to Germany's infamous efficient qualities, and saw massive improvement. Klose, Podolski and Ballack are all expected to make their mark on the scoresheet. In a group with Austria, Croatia and Poland, its very hard to see them not progressing to the latter stages. But are they any value at 4/1? Probably not, though they're a must for any combinations in the 'Name the Finalists' market. And I love the 4/5 available on Germany scoring 8 or more tournament goals with Betfair. They are capable of making that total in the group stages, let alone over the probable five or six games.

The other three fancied sides in that half - at least fancied by the market to progress - are Portugal, Czech Republic and Croatia. In all three cases though, any value may have gone. I did very nicely in 2004 out of trading Portugal and the Czechs at nice prices through till the semi-finals, though this time everyone rates them accordingly. Under Scolari, Portugal have become a very hard side to beat, and reliable in the major championships. However, they've also rarely turned on the style during his leadership. Christiano Ronaldo, in particular, has rarely looked a patch of his Man Utd self at international level. This side massively underperformed in the semis of both the last World Cup and Euros, so make no appeal to me at short-prices. Like Germany though, they must be taken seriously as potential finalists from this draw.

Under the brilliant stewardship of Karel Brueckner, the Czechs have become a major force in international football. In 2004, I felt they were the best team and a little unlucky, hitting the woodwork on several occasions against Greece in the semis. They qualified impressively again, and have never looked notably inferior when up against other top sides. However on the downside, there must be a danger that the Koller/Baros front-line is getting a bit long in the tooth and without Nedved, Rosicky or Poborsky I doubt they'll represent the same threat this time.

My lack of confidence in these two makes TURKEY a must-bet at 3.35 to qualify from Group A. Why they are more than whole a point higher than the Swiss is a mystery to me. Its six years since they reached the World Cup semis, and nobody would deny that they haven't matched that level since. But they remain a competitive force against any European side. Their record in qualification wasn't as impressive as some others, but then they were in a much more competitive group than most. Its not so much that I think Turkey are particularly brilliant, rather they rate as big value at the odds. Beyond just qualifying, 66/1 is a huge each-way price. No way on earth should the real odds on them reaching the final be 33/1. Theoretically to achieve that, they could be required to qualify from that group, followed by ties against Poland and the Czechs. If we can get them through to the last eight, that each-way bet will be a valuable position to hold.

Also with regard to Group A, I think there will be very few goals, making Boylesports 15/8 about less than 13 goals from the six group games a decent bet. Portugal and the Czechs both have miserly defensive records, and it is in this department that the Swiss and Turkey are at their best. Indeed, the latter pair's main weakness is an inability to score. I can see plenty of 0-0 and 1-0 scorelines here.

Group C is this year's 'Group of Death', with Italy, Holland, France and Romania. The last-named are no rags by any means, with a fine qualification record and rock-solid defence. Italy are seriously respected as potential winners, but France look to me the team to oppose. They no longer have Zidane and Henry is a pale shadow of his former self, and few coaches in the tournament instill less confidence than Raymond Domenech. If you take away a Zidane-inspired return to their best in the latter stages of the World Cup, France have been disappointing for several years. They only just qualified because Scotland failed against Georgia. I just cannot have them as 1.63 chances to qualify from that brutal group, and strongly recommend laying it.

Its in Group D where we find my main outright bet, RUSSIA. Spain are all the rage here, as short as second-favourites purely on the basis of the individuals in their squad. But how often has the team with the best individuals won these tournaments? Not many is the answer, though more times than the Spanish have produced their best at a major tournament. Any team with Torres, Fabregas and the rest deserves respect, but in my view they simply have to be opposed at those odds.

The other three teams in that group are Russia, Greece and Sweden. Greece have broadly the same outfit that won last time, and certainly have the capability to qualify again. It will surely be much harder second time around though. As for Sweden, they're a team that I urgently want to oppose. They are another ageing side, (that still includes Freddie Ljundberg!), and are rated too heavily on past performances and qualifying. Its worth noting that the group that Spain and Sweden qualified from was absolutely dire - Northern Ireland held a chance of qualifying close to the end.

Russia, who qualified ahead of decent sides in England and Israel, have a great chance of reaching the latter stages. They have the best coach in the event, Guus Hiddink, and remember its only a few weeks since a Russian side won the UEFA Cup. Should they qualify as expected, their odds of 28/1 would reduce dramatically and they would hold a decent chance against the rest.

Finally, as alluded to above, the 'Name the Finalists' market could also offer some trading value. I'm having four bets, covering permutations of Germany and Portugal from the top-half, plus Italy and Russia from the bottom at the combined odds of roughly 9/2. I'm confident that come the quarter-final stages and beyond this will offer a chance to close out for profit if desired.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

OUTRIGHT

10pts ew RUSSIA @ 28/1 (STAN JAMES, BETDIRECT, BETFRED, TOTE)
3pts ew TURKEY @ 66/1 (PADDY POWER, SKYBET)

GROUP A

15pts TURKEY TO QUALIFY @ 3.35 (BETFAIR)
8pts UNDER 13 GROUP GOALS @ 15/8 (BOYLES)

GROUP B

15pts GERMANY TO SCORE OVER 7.5 GOALS @ 4/5 (BET365)

GROUP C

LAY FRANCE 30pts TO QUALIFY @ 1.63 (BETFAIR) OR 6/4 NOT TO QUALIFY (HILLS)

NOMINATE THE FINALISTS

10pts GERMANY/ITALY @ 11/1 (STAN JAMES, BETDIRECT)
6pts PORTUGAL/ITALY @ 18/1 (TOTE)
2pts GERMANY/RUSSIA @ 55/1 (HILLS)
2pts PORTUGAL/RUSSIA @ 80/1 (BET365, HILLS, SPORTINGBET)

Weekly Golf Betting Column Latest

2008-04-30T04:48:00.000-07:00

Just a quick reminder for fans of my weekly golf column that it can be viewed free of charge online at www.golf-monthly.co.uk every Wednesday.

My latest winner in what has been an extremely successful year to date was Kenny Perry in last Sunday's Memorial Tournament. Highlights this season include:

KENNY PERRY WON 33/1 MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT
OLIVER WILSON 2ND 33/1 ITALIAN OPEN
ADAM SCOTT WON 12/1 BYRON NELSON CHAMPIONSHIP
AARON BADDELEY 2ND 28/1 HERITAGE CLASSIC
GRAEME MCDOWELL WON 30/1 BALLANTINES CHAMPIONSHIP
JOHN SENDEN 2nd 80/1 HONDA CLASSIC
BRIAN GAY WON 80/1 MAYAKOBA CLASSIC
FELIPE AGUILAR WON 150/1 INDONESIAN OPEN
JEEV-MILKHA SINGH 2nd 33/1 INDONESIAN OPEN
MARTIN KAYMER WON 60/1 ABU DHABI CHAMPIONSHIP
RICHARD STERNE WON 16/1 JOBURG OPEN
ADAM SCOTT WON 16/1 QATAR MASTERS
PETER LONARD WON 14/1 AUSTRALIAN PGA
DAVID SMAIL 2nd 40/1 AUSTRALIAN PGA
BRANDT SNEDEKER 2nd 40/1 AUSTRALIAN OPEN
AARON BADDELEY WON 10/1 MASTERCARD MASTERS
MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ WON 25/1 HONG KONG OPEN
ROSS FISHER 2nd 100/1 HSBC CHAMPIONS TROPHY
IAN POULTER WON 14/1 DUNLOP PHOENIX OPEN
SCOTLAND WON 25/1 WORLD CUP

And don't forget, I also offer a comprehensive subscription-based tipping service including a month's free trial to start. Anyone interested should contact me at paulmotty@hotmail.com

World Snooker Championship Preview

2008-04-17T05:38:00.000-07:00

Something quite significant has happened in snooker this season. For several years, since the decline of Stephen Hendry and subsequently the 'big 4' of Hendry, O'Sullivan, Williams and Higgins, snooker had become one of the most open and unpredictable sports around. Virtually none of the top players were reliable and consistent, and the name of the game as far as gambling was concerned was to constantly seek out attractively priced each-way value.

Up until November of last year , 13 players had shared the last 16 titles between them. The first two winners of this season, Dominic Dale and Marco Fu both started the event at 150/1 or bigger. The SPs of the last three World Champions has been 150/1, 66/1 and 14/1.

But since the NI classic in November, everything has changed. At last we may have seen the emergence of a new elite, akin to that previous 'big 4'. Stephen Maguire, Shaun Murphy, Ronnie O'Sullivan and Mark Selby have shared the last six events, and only two other players have reached a final during that period. Consequently, only two other players start this week at less than 20/1, defending champion Higgins and Ding Junhui. neither of whom have been at their best recently.

No disrespect to the likes of Dott and Ebdon, but their successes came on the back of long, grinding victories without too many high breaks. In my view this year's winner will in my view be somebody who can regularly win frames in one visit. So rather than the old strategy of trading down big prices, for now it would be folly to look to try and get the big names beaten early on. Of the new big 4, only Maguire's first-round opponent looks even vaguely threatening.

As usual, its essential to be wary about perenially dodgy favourite Ronnie O'Sullivan. After his outburst in China, he could come under some very serious scrutiny from the media and snooker authorities which given his extremely fragile temperament could lead to a withdrawal or non-trying. Alternatively, if he gets an easy ride from the authorities and starts happy, O'Sullivan has a peach of a draw. The only potential stumbling blocks through to the semi-final would be Ken Doherty or a rejuvenated Mark Williams, though either would be trounced by a peak-form Ronnie.

I'm not about to break the habit of a lifetime and advise a bet on him to win the event. I expect him to progress but would have grave concerns about his ability to maintain interest and form over a marathon latter stages encounter against a top-class opponent. However his tasty draw does suggest he'll reach those latter stages, which makes him worthy of inclusion in the 'Nominate the Finalists' market, to which I'll return later.

The top quarter looks wide open, with at least six of the eight players in with a decent chance of reaching the semis. Higgins opens his defence on Saturday with a potentially tough game against one of the best never to have won a World title, Matthew Stevens. I say potentially, because Stevens form and motivation is something of a mystery. Besides winning his qualifying match for Sheffield easily, the Welshman has done precisely nothing this year, leading some to assume he's lost interest. However, I wouldn't write him off just yet as every year he seems to improve tenfold for the longer matches here.

Higgins too has struggled for focus and form this year, and many champions have lost that opening day fixture down the years. However, if he is at his best this week, Higgins would be the man to follow in the top half of the draw. If not, its wide-open. In his quarter, fairly similar chances could be given to Ding, Marco Fu, RYAN DAY or Mark Allen. Though he may be the same odds as most of those, there is no way Stephen Hendry will be winning an eighth world title.

Ding remains massively over-rated. Having reached just one low grade final since breaking down in tears at Wembley during a confidence-shattering mauling at the hands of O'Sullivan, I wonder how long it will be before punters give up on the Chinese star. In fact, one of the bets of the first round must be his first round opponent Marco Fu at 6/4. Grand Prix champion Fu has produced some of his best snooker at the Crucible, most memorably when losing a deciding frame to Ebdon in the 2006 semi.

So despite letting me down on more occasions than I care to remember, once again I'm having a small each-way wager on Welshman Day. Arguably the best player yet to win a ranking event, Day is the only one in this section who can be confidently predicted to win his opening match, and on 2008 form shouldn't particularly fear anyone else he's scheduled to meet before the semis. He's reached a couple of finals over the past 18 months, and has played well at the Crucible before when less experienced, coming close to causing major upsets against O'Sullivan and Higgins.

The other three members of the 'big 4' are in the bottom half, amongst whom the best value of all lies, not for the first time, with 2005 champion SHAUN MURPHY. As a local lad, Murphy always looks comfortable at the Crucible - as opposed for instance to O'Sullivan who probably hates the idea of being away from home for 17 days. His record in the event suggests Murphy particularly thrives over these long matches. And he remains by far the most under-rated player in the world. Having reached 8 of his last 11 ranking semis, I can see no justification for his being only fourth in the betting. Indeed, according the provisional rankings, Murphy is the best in the world.

For my money, the winner is the player that emerges from a potential quarter-final between Murphy and Mark Selby. Selby is very much the man of the moment, having finally won a couple of titles since losing in last year's final. A slow grinder in the mould of former champs Cliff Thorburn or Peter Ebdon, 'The Jester from Leicester' will be perfectly happy if his matches go on way past midnight....again.

But from a betting perspective, Selby is poor value in comparison. Whereas Murphy should have very little trouble reaching the quarters, Selby will have to negotiate a tricky last-16 match against the winner of the Ebdon/Jamie Cope first-round match. No certainty by any means, and seeing as I would price Selby v Murphy as a more or less even game, there's no contest for which represents better value between 8/1 Murphy and 6/1 Selby.

The odds suggest the bottom quarter will be dominated by the man I've been banging on about for years to little avail, Stephen Maguire. Twice a winner this year, including the latest China Open, Maguire must have a great chance of improving on last year's semi-final defeat. Nothing has shifted in my long-held view that, at his very best, 'On Fire Maguire' is the man to beat simply because he is such a heavy scorer, knocking in flawless centuries for fun like his old practice partner Hendry used to.

But is he worth a bet at just 7/1? As someone who has paid the price for having too much faith in him before, I'm loathe to bet at these odds. Twice at the Crucible, against Ronnie and Higgins, he has crumbled having held seemingly unassailable leads. And he is no certainty from this draw. I doubt his capable first-round opponent Antony Hamilton will spring an upset, but I wouldn't write off NEIL ROBERTSON in round two. This time last year, Robbo was a shorter price to win the World title than Maguire, and equally hyped as a future champion. And in both of the last two years he's reserved some of his best snooker for the Crucible, arguably being unlucky to lose classic matches to Dott (13-12) and O'Sullivan (13-11). He's had a disappointing season, but has looked in fine touch in recent Champions League matches and must potentially be a threat to all.

So alongside outright bets on Murphy, Robertson and Day, I also suggest four bets including O'Sullivan in the 'Nominate the Finalists' market. Here I've chosen two from each of the bottom quarters to meet Ronnie in the final, with the combined odds equating to around 2/1.

I've also written five preview articles for the Betfair blog, links to which can be found at the bottom.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

10pts SHAUN MURPHY @ 8/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 20/1 (GENERAL, 25/1 SUPERSOCCER)
2pts ew RYAN DAY @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

NOMINATE THE FINALISTS (ALL WITH PADDY POWER)

8pts O'SULLIVAN/SELBY @ 8/1
7pts O'SULLIVAN/MAGUIRE @ 10/1
6pts O'SULLIVAN/MURPHY @ 12/1
3pts O'SULLIVAN/ROBERTSON @ 25/1

http://betting.betfair.com/betting/snooker/world-snooker-championship-betting/match-previews/crucible-odds-the-pick-of-the-first-round-betting-160408.html

http://betting.betfair.com/betting/snooker/world-snooker-championship-betting/world-snooker-championship-betting-market-focus-new-cha-150408.html

http://betting.betfair.com/betting/snooker/world-snooker-championship-betting/world-snooker-championship-betting-market-focus-player-150408.html

http://betting.betfair.com/betting/snooker/world-snooker-championship-betting/world-snooker-championship-betting-market-focus-147-sco-150408.html

http://betting.betfair.com/betting/snooker/world-snooker-championship-betting/crucible-betting-2008-forget-likeability-its-reliabilit-150408.html

China Open Snooker Preview

2008-03-23T06:29:00.000-07:00

After a long run of shock results, the snooker scene has become much more predictable in recent months. The last five tournaments have been shared between the top-class quartet of Ronnie O'Sullivan, Mark Selby, Stephen Maguire and Shaun Murphy, all of whom are expected to be major players at next month's season highlight, the 888.com World Championships.

In the meantime we've got the China Open which starts on Monday. For some players, especially those without serious ranking concerns, a tournament at this time of year represents an inconvenient interruption in their practice regime for the big one. When the Scottish Open was held at this time of year we saw some extremely unlikely results, and last year's Graeme Dott/Jamie Cope final in this event could hardly be described as obvious. I particularly doubt we'll see a fully focussed and motivated Ronnie O'Sullivan.

The crucial punting angle this week is an extremely lop-sided draw. Of the 'big 6' - those four recent winners, world champ John Higgins and home favourite Ding Junhui - five are in the bottom half of the draw. Besides them, the bottom half also contains live contenders Neil Robertson, Marco Fu and capable outsiders like Ali Carter and Stuart Bingham.

Maguire is the only one in the top half, and he is another who its generally sensible to avoid until his motivation level is known. Its easy to imagine the Scot sailing through to the final, and just as easy to imagine him losing badly in the first-round. My strategy, then, is to throw a few alternative each-way darts from the top-half in the hope that I'll have a couple of representatives in the quarter-finals and beyond.

My main selection is the one player in the top-half with the twin qualities of good recent form, and being somebody who can always be relied upon to give 100% wherever, or whenever the game. Earlier in the year, KEN DOHERTY had looked on a downward spiral, but from the Masters onwards he's bounced back well. He followed up on an impressive semi-final appearance at Wembley by making the final in Malta. Mike Dunn looks a straightforward opponent to begin so his odds are likely to shorten from 18/1.

There are other capable players in Doherty's section, though none make any punting appeal until we've got a clearer idea which will emerge. For instance, Ken's second match would be a tricky one against either Ryan Day or Matthew Stevens. Day starts favourite here, but has let me down too many times this season. Its hard to take a strong opinion about this match until we know which Stevens will turn up. Throughout most of the season, Stevens has looked a very pale shadow of the player who reached two world finals, but he didn't do a lot wrong when we recently opposed him in the final qualifying round for Sheffield.

Stevens is fighting for his career, and could be dangerous for that reason alone. Another Welshman in a similar bind is Mark Williams, who has won this event before. Also in Doherty's quarter, Williams is capable of emerging but no more so than equally out-of-form opponents Peter Ebdon and Jamie Cope. Once again, lets see how the opening exchanges go before having any further bets.

If Maguire is to be opposed in the top quarter, then just about anyone in the section could make the semis. Stephen Hendry remains vulnerable, but while I toyed with backing his first-round opponent Barry Hawkins there's not much in his recent portfolio to recommend. Instead the two I like for each-way purposes are STEPHEN LEE and FERGAL O'BRIEN at 50/1 and 125/1 respectively.

Its been a long time since I backed Lee, but he's done enough recently to expect a comfortable first-round win over Nigel Bond. Following that he's scheduled to meet defending champion Dott, a player Lee has a fine head-to-head record against. As for O'Brien, on his day he's a match for anyone as O'Sullivan found to his cost earlier in the year. If he beats his dangerous Chinese wild-card opponent in the preliminary round, Fergal could present a very tricky first-round opponent for Maguire.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

4pts ew KEN DOHERTY @ 18/1 (BET365, BETDIRECT, STAN JAMES)
2pts ew STEPHEN LEE @ 50/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew FERGAL O'BRIEN @ 100/1 (GENERAL, 125/1 CORALS)

Weekly Golf Column Latest News

2008-02-26T04:48:00.000-08:00

Just a quick reminder for fans of my weekly golf column that it can be viewed free of charge online at www.golf-monthly.co.uk every Wednesday.

The 2007/2008 season couldn't have started better, yielding over 400 points profit so far. Graeme McDowell at 30/1 is my latest success, following on from 150/1 and 80/1winners in the form of Felipe Aguilar and Brian Gay. Furthermore, my long-term bets on the Majors and money lists are also looking strong.

Highlights this season include:

GRAEME MCDOWELL WON 30/1 BALLANTINES CHAMPIONSHIP
JOHN SENDEN 2nd 80/1 HONDA CLASSIC
BRIAN GAY WON 80/1 MAYAKOBA CLASSIC
FELIPE AGUILAR WON 150/1 INDONESIAN OPEN
JEEV-MILKHA SINGH 2nd 33/1 INDONESIAN OPEN
MARTIN KAYMER WON 60/1 ABU DHABI CHAMPIONSHIP
RICHARD STERNE WON 16/1 JOBURG OPEN
ADAM SCOTT WON 16/1 QATAR MASTERS
PETER LONARD WON 14/1 AUSTRALIAN PGA
DAVID SMAIL 2nd 40/1 AUSTRALIAN PGA
BRANDT SNEDEKER 2nd 40/1 AUSTRALIAN OPEN
AARON BADDELEY WON 10/1 MASTERCARD MASTERS
MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ WON 25/1 HONG KONG OPEN
ROSS FISHER 2nd 100/1 HSBC CHAMPIONS TROPHY
IAN POULTER WON 14/1 DUNLOP PHOENIX OPEN
SCOTLAND WON 25/1 WORLD CUP

And don't forget, I also offer a comprehensive subscription-based tipping service including a month's free trial to start. Anyone interested should contact me at paulmotty@hotmail.com

Malta Cup Snooker Preview

2008-01-31T07:11:00.000-08:00

Though its always nice to see some televised snooker, there have been a couple of early disappointments already ahead of next week's Malta Cup. Firstly Ronnie O'Sullivan's decision to miss the event is a blow, not so much to a tournament that he never takes seriously anyway, but to my punting plans. Opposing him at short-odds in these overseas events has been a goldmine over the years.

Secondly, there is a new format to come to terms with. A field of 20 are split into four groups, to play six frame matches on a round-robin league basis. The winner of each group qualifies for the semi-finals. We're already used to round robin in the Grand Prix, and to six frame matches where the draw is a possibility from the Premier League. The unique characteristic here though is that with only one qualifier from each group, there are going to be an awful lot of meaningless matches towards the end of the group stage.

Nevertheless, all of this makes little or no difference to whether there is any punting value to be found. In fact, given the restricted field and rather lop-sided draw this may not turn out to be the hardest puzzle to solve. Of the 20 starters, home stars Drago and Borg can be confidently written off. Given the propensity in snooker over recent years to produce shock winners, particularly in second division events like this, everybody else holds some sort of chance. Indeed the player third from last in the betting, Dominic Dale, has already won a ranking event this season.

However, on the basis of their performances this season and most recently at Wembley, there are a number of players I couldn't consider backing. Peter Ebdon and Graeme Dott were woeful, and though he reached the final their conqueror Stephen Lee looks a very unlikely winner on all recent form.

The draw could make matters easier. Three of the top-five in the betting - Maguire, Selby and Murphy - are in the same group, meaning only one can reach the semis. As any games between those three look toss of a coin affairs, there's no sense in betting on them until we know which one has emerged from the group stage.

In the same half of the draw, albeit in a much easier group, is DING JUNHUI. Ding hardly screams value at just 13/2 considering he hasn't made a final for over a year, but looks way ahead of the rest of his group. The struggling Ebdon, Dott and Dale are all in this section along with MARK WILLIAMS so I recommend backing Ding and Williams in the hope of building a strong trading position for the semi-final stage.

Its been a long time since I backed former dual world champ Williams, who is struggling to maintain his top-32 place and by extension his career. However, I felt he played much, much better in the last two events and was a bit unlucky to bump into Maguire and then a back-to-form Ken Doherty. 40/1 in this limited field is certainly worth a crack, especially as he's one of the few to have produced his best in these overseas events.

The crucial point with the draw though is that it leaves only one 'heavyweight' in the top-half - John Higgins. And while the world champion is always respected, there's no doubt that he too has struggled for form and focus this season. There was little sign of improvement at Wembley, so I'll be surprised to see him bounce back quickly in an event for which he too could struggle to motivate himself.

I much prefer the two players in Higgins' group that are now vying for the status of "Best player yet to win on the main tour', RYAN DAY and ALI CARTER, now that Mark Selby has got that monkey off his back. With outsider Borg and average Joe Perry the other members of this group, Day and Carter look by far the most likely beneficiaries of a Higgins slip and reasonable betting value at 21 and 26 respectively.

The other group in the top-half looks more tricky, with Lee, KEN DOHERTY, Joe Swail, Neil Robertson and Marco Fu scrapping out what should be a series of tight matches for a place in the semis. Preference here is for Doherty, who played by far the best snooker of these at Wembley. Again, Ken is another player who should always be respected in this overseas events given a strong record.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

8pts DING JUNHUI @ 13/2 (BETDIRECT, STAN JAMES)
3pts ew RYAN DAY @ 20/1 (GENERAL)
3pts ew ALI CARTER @ 25/1 (GENERAL)
2pts ew KEN DOHERTY @ 20/1 (SPORTING BET)
2pts ew MARK WILLIAMS 40/1 (VCBET, SPORTINGBET)

UK Championship Snooker Betting Preview

2007-12-07T07:58:00.000-08:00

The second biggest event of the year behind the World Championship starts tomorrow at a new venue in Telford, after several years at the York Barbican Centre. While snooker has become the No 1 sport for backing outsiders in recent years, these two events usually buck the trend due to the longer matches (each round is best of 17 as opposed to the usual best of 9). Since 1980, the only UK Champion who could be described as a shock winner was Doug Mountjoy back in 1988. Even when the winner hasn't been seeded - Stephen Maguire in 2004, Ding Junhui in 2005 for instance - the result could hardly be seen as an upset and both were favourites by the latter stages of the event.

As usual the most consistently unreliable favourite in the history of betting, Ronnie O'Sullivan, starts at prohibitively short odds of less than 4/1. I'm not reading anything at all into Ronnie's Premier League win last week, as he has proven time and again that he is virtually unbeatable in that quick format. As far as ranking tournaments are concerned, its now getting on for three years since he last won which makes a mockery of this week's odds. I wouldn't lay him yet, however, as his first couple of matches look straightforward. Better to wait until the quarter-finals where he potentially would have to face world champ John Higgins, at which stage those odds will probably be below 2/1 as punters over-react to the earlier easy wins.

For betting purposes I much prefer the top-half of the draw, where three players are strongly fancied to have it between them. In the second section, by far the likeliest quarter-final would be between SHAUN MURPHY and Ding Junhui. I'd make that game a real 50/50 affair, an estimate not reflected in the outright market where Murphy is three points bigger at 10/1. There's nothing in the last year's form to justify this - Ding hasn't won or done much at all in any 2007 ranking event, whereas Murphy reached the semis five times in 2007 and won the Welsh Open. The 2005 World Champion hasn't enjoyed the best of luck in those semi-finals, losing to both O'Sullivan and Mark Selby by the odd frame having held commanding leads. He's due a change of luck, and should have little trouble winning two straightforward opening games to reach the quarters at which point I doubt anything like 10/1 will be available.

Both Murphy and Ding were eliminated in Northern Ireland by the resurgent STEPHEN MAGUIRE. Maguire, the 14th different winner from the last 17 ranking events, at last looks back to the form of 2004 when he was being widely tipped as the game's next big thing. That year, Maguire won this tournament impressively with only first round victim O'Sullivan giving him a hard match. At his best, there are very few players who can live with the Scot (though when betting it must also be considered that at his worst, Maguire can be awful). If he can maintain his form over the next week, I strongly fancy him to emerge from the top quarter.

The big danger to Maguire in this quarter is defending champion Peter Ebdon. Considering that Ebdon has always been a much better player over longer matches, he may well improve on some reasonable efforts so far this season and certainly makes more betting appeal than the declining Stephen Hendry or Mark Williams. I still doubt he'll be able to live with a peak-form Maguire though, and Ebdon also came out clearly second-best to Murphy in Belfast.

The third quarter looks the hardest to predict. Neil Robertson would be the pick on last season's form, but needs to improve dramatically on recent efforts, as does former world champion Graeme Dott. Grand Prix winner Marco Fu is unlikely to reproduce those unpredictable heroics anytime soon, though will still be a tough first-round opponent for the emerging Ryan Day. My pick in this section is world-finalist MARK SELBY who looks the best player without a recent win now that Maguire has got that monkey off his back. The fact that Selby, a very slow player, has produced his best snooker over the longer matches could be a good sign.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

8pts win SHAUN MURPHY @ 10/1 (CORALS, TOTE, BETFAIR)
8pts win STEPHEN MAGUIRE @ 10/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 11.5 ON BETFAIR)
4pts ew MARK SELBY @ 25/1 (LADBROKES)

Northern Ireland Trophy Snooker Betting Preview

2007-11-02T05:28:00.001-07:00

Just when you thought snooker couldn't get any more unpredictable, up pop Dominic Dale and Marcu Fu to win the first two ranking events of the season. Add that to the incredible statistic that 13 different players have won the last 16 events, and you'd have to be insane to consider backing anyone at single-figure odds before a tournament starts.

Its not even as if those 13 different winners reflect the top-13 in the world. Top players such as Stephen Maguire, Ryan Day, Stephen Hendry, Matthew Stevens are all winless over that period.The Northern Ireland Trophy starts on Sunday, and as a tournament with no more stature than the two that preceded it, nothing would surprise me.

As always the key to solving the puzzle is to study the draw and find the weaker sections. There looks to be an obvious uneven split, with the first and fourth quarters looking much stronger. The fourth quarter in particular looks ultra-competitive, including tournament favourite Ronnie O'Sullivan, world champ John Higgins, Mark Selby and Ali Carter.

In the top section, only one of Ding Junhui and Maguire can possibly reach the last eight even assuming dangerous floaters Joe Perry or Stuart Bingham don't wreck their plans. The battle to be their quarter-final opponent looks more open though, as the obvious choice Neil Robertson has looked woefully out of sorts so far this season. JAMIE COPE also disappointed in the Grand Prix, but at 40/1 still represents decent each-way value as the next best in this mini-section. After all, Cope did reach two ranking finals last year and remains one of the game's brightest young stars.

Overall, the best value in my view is SHAUN MURPHY at 14/1, the one player who has consistently performed well in 2007. Since winning the Welsh Open, he's made the semis in Malta, Sheffield and Aberdeen. In those last two, he looked a certainty to make the final before being stung by brilliant comebacks from Selby and then O'Sullivan. The obvious dangers in his quarter - Hendry, Ebdon and Stevens - all look inferior. Ebdon and Stevens are rarely seen to best effect in best-of 9 tournaments, while Hendry looks less likely to ever win again with each tournament failure.

With good draws, I could see MARK ALLEN and JOE SWAIL making good use of their home support to get a run going here. Swail is in the same quarter as Murphy, and looks better value than the others mentioned. Joe played pretty well in Aberdeen before being predictably beaten by O'Sullivan, and at 125/1, he's worth a nibble each-way. Swail may not be the most obvious winner but no less likely than Dale or Fu.

Allen didn't set Aberdeen alight, but could be more dangerous back on home turf. 2 years ago he claimed some good scalps in this tournament when it was still an invitational. Furthermore, he is positioned in the weakest section. The biggest names in the third quarter are Mark Williams, Graeme Dott and Ken Doherty. Williams looks finished at the top level, and while I wouldn't completely rule out a return to form for the latter pair, both will have to improve massively on their dire efforts of a fortnight ago. There's also a lack of dangerous outsiders in this section, with John Parrott, Rod Lawler and Mike Dunn representing little threat.

I much prefer RYAN DAY to his more experienced rivals in this weak quarter. Having lost the final in Shanghai to Dale, Day looked set for another good run in the Grand Prix before running into class act Murphy. The Welshman remains one of the best players yet to win a ranking event, a run that will surely end soon.

4pts ew SHAUN MURPHY @ 14/1 (PADDY POWER)
2pts ew RYAN DAY @ 33/1 (SPORTING BET)
1.5pts ew JAMIE COPE @ 40/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew MARK ALLEN @ 80/1 (CENTREBET, PADDY POWER)
1pt ew JOE SWAIL @ 125/1 (STAN JAMES)

Grand Prix Snooker Preview

2007-10-12T06:37:00.000-07:00

This ranking tournament starts on Saturday from Aberdeen, with its unique format retained from last year. To begin, 48 players are split into eight groups of six. Groups are decided on a league basis over best of seven frame matches. The top two from each group qualify for the last-16, when a normal knockout draw comes into operation.

Because we can only predict a limited amount about the draw, early betting is very tricky. As I've mentioned before, no sport has become better for backing outsiders than snooker. And if last year's event was anything to go by, this could be the best of the lot for that strategy. The four semi-finalists were NEIL ROBERTSON, who went on to win his first tournament success, and three outsiders in the form of Jamie Cope, Mark King and Alan McManus.

The main reason is this early best-of-7 format. Over matches as short as that, upsets must be expected. So I expect to be incrementally adding to the portfolio as I go along. To start though, I have four selections, all of whom I'd expect to be trading much shorter should they progress beyond the group stages.

Looking through the groups, the best draw may have gone to the continually under-rated MARK SELBY. Selby will surely win his first tournament soon, having reached the World final and semis in this season's only event so far in China. He looks likely to qualify from a moderate group including Peter Ebdon, Matthew Stevens, Joe Delaney, Dave Harold and Liu Song. The key here is that Ebdon and Stevens are both very much players suited to longer formats, and in any case Ebdon usually starts the season slowly. Delaney should be outclassed, while Harold and the lesser known Song must be outsiders.

Robbo has questions to answer after some very poor showings in the Premier League, but could well bounce back in familiar surroundings. His group opponents don't look very fearsome, particularly Jimmy Michie and Mark Davis. Stephen Lee, Joe Swail and Joe Perry are more capable but all well below the Australian's high standards.

A player fitting a similar profile to last year's finalists Robbo and Cope is MARK ALLEN. The Northern Irishman is a superstar in the making, as he showed at the Crucible last year. He could well step up a level very quickly now and open his account in a ranking tournament of this stature. As far as his group opponents are concerned, he won't fear Ken Doherty whom he beat at the Crucible, nor the declining Mark Williams. And Allen is at least the match of Ian McCulloch, Michael Judge or Ricky Walden.

And while he has become an incredibly expensive player to follow, ALI CARTER looks under-rated at 66/1. If he hadn't lost a deciding frame to Selby at Sheffield there's every chance he would have been a serious challenger for the world title. He was very consistent in the second half of last season, suggesting an overdue breakthrough win was imminent.

Good Luck!

4pts NEIL ROBERTSON @ 18/1 (BOYLESPORTS, PADDY POWER)
4pts MARK SELBY @ 20/1 (BOYLESPORTS, TOTE)
1pt ew ALASTAIR CARTER @ 66/1 (TOTE, VCBET, 80/1 HILLS)
1pt ew MARK ALLEN @ 66/1 (GENERAL, 80/1 CENTREBET)

Betting Preview for Next Deputy Labour Leader

2007-05-28T06:46:00.000-07:00

Its perhaps not surprising that media and betting interest on this contest has been patchy so far. We are after all talking about a position that wields little real political power, and if media reports are to be believed the post may not even carry the title of Deputy Prime Minister. But with the Labour leadership settled without a contest, this is the only election in town and as far as betting is concerned, why should we care about the relevance of the job? This is in fact a cracking contest, with few obvious pointers to help pick the winner. Things could hot up over the next week or so with a live Newsnight debate televised on Tuesday, following this weekend’s extensive hustings. At present its possible to make a case for all six contenders, and I’m far from convinced that the current odds are even close to the correct mark.

Obviously, the key is trying to ascertain opinion within the various sections of the Labour movement that make up the electoral college. There are three sections, the first consisting of 356 MPs and 19 MEPs, the second individual Labour party members and the final third made up of over 3M individual members of trade unions affiliated to the Labour Party.

We know plenty about the first section, as 351 of the 375 voters have already expressed a first preference at the nomination stage. On the already stated first preferences, the current percentage tally is as follows:

JOHNSON: 23%
HARMAN: 19%
HAIN: 15%
CRUDDAS: 14%
BLEARS: 14%
BENN: 14%

However, with voters ordering all six candidates in order of preferences much can change once votes are transferred from losing candidates. In fact, the key to winning this contest could be more than simply having many strong supporters, rather to avoid unpopularity with a particular faction. Gaining lots of second and third preference votes could be a winning strategy. Also bearing in mind that few of these have held high office, name recognition is likely to be a major factor.

The party membership is particularly hard to predict. Hundreds of thousands have left in recent years, and those that remain are unlikely to fit a clearly defined ideological profile. Groups like the Fabian Society, Labour students and the Christian Socialist Movement, not to mention the unions, have a diverse set of aims and interests. Its also important to remember that many people will have more than one vote in the contest. Many Labour members will also be trade unionists so will get a vote in both sections. As the Guardian pointed out last week, in extreme cases some MPs could actually wield up to half a dozen votes.

No doubt the union vote will be critical. 3.2 members are eligible under one member, one vote, but turnout is expected to be derisory. The open question is how influential the support of union leaders and political committees will be. Clearly their influence is incomparable to the days of union block votes, but I wouldn’t underestimate it. I’m sure the union leaderships and memberships will have taken this very seriously and weighed up all the candidates, who no doubt have been working hard over the past year to make their pitch to this critical section of their electorate. So taking all this into account, here’s my assessment of the chances of each candidate.

ALAN JOHNSON

Judging by the first preferences of MPs and MEPs, the Education Secretary looks a strong favourite. Johnson enjoys as great a media profile as anyone else in the field, and is widely seen as a ‘safe pair of hands’, a working-class former postman capable of uniting both ‘Old’ and ‘New’ Labour, if such terms are still relevant. This may well have played a part in securing the influential nominations of previous incumbent and party favourite John Prescott, plus rising Blairite star David Miliband. His only problem may be hostility from some of the private sector unions, who have accused him of ‘selling out’. Head of the giant Unite organisation Derek Simpson has been venomous about Johnson’s apparent indifference to the loss of manufacturing jobs. On the other hand, Johnson has the backing of the union he used to head, the Communication Workers Union, and is rumoured to enjoy strong support within pivotal public sector union, UNISON. The Hull-West MP looks very much the favourite in my view, and worthy of shorter odds than at present.

CURRENT ODDS: 2/1

HILARY BENN

Currently rated as favourite after steady support in recent days, probably on the basis of some unreliable polls. The son of Labour legend Tony certainly has strong name recognition, and is no doubt widely respected throughout the party. As International Development Secretary, Benn has had an easier ride than other candidates. However, he has so far run a lacklustre campaign in comparison to some very eager rivals, culminating in a struggle to obtain enough parliamentary support to get on the ballot paper. Notably, Benn has also failed to win the backing of any of the union leaderships so could also be right up against it in that crucial section. The current price around 6/4 is way too short and I strongly advise laying on Betfair.

CURRENT ODDS: 7/4

HARRIET HARMAN

Harman has her share of critics, and hasn’t always enjoyed the best media profile, but is mounting a strong challenge nonetheless. Judging by the names of her supporters, she looks to be the favoured Brownite candidate, enough to put her in clear second place among MPs as far as nominations are concerned. Her list of endorsements also suggest strong support in local government. Notably, Harman made another pitch recently to female party members by promising to address the ‘gender gap’ in wages across local govt. Her husband Jack Dromey is also a very well respected former Union leader which could help in that section.
Many people believe Labour will be best served by a female deputy, not only to further gender equality but to soften the dour, ‘clunking fist’ image of Brown. Harman was involved closely with long-time ally Brown over childcare initiatives like Sure Start, a certain theme of his Premiership and next election campaign. Not the favourite by any means, but perhaps the biggest danger to Johnson.

CURRENT ODDS: 8/1

HAZEL BLEARS

I must be honest and confess I’d had Blears down as a complete no-hoper on the basis of some embarrassing TV performances, but I am slowly amending this view. By all accounts, she has fared best of all the candidates at the hustings so far. The post of Labour deputy is a fairly meaningless one, perfect in its way for an ultra-loyal cheerleader like Blears. As party chair she will enjoy widespread name recognition throughout the party. On the negative side, she is seen as a Blairite with the support of several distinctly Blairite Ministers. Presumably this will alienate party members desperate for a new direction, and is unlikely to help gain union support though she has secured the backing of Usdaw, the shop workers’ union. Her critical battle is with Harman, to emerge as the best placed female and win the votes of those who want a female deputy.

CURRENT ODDS: 11/1

JON CRUDDAS

Cruddas has been running the most interesting and distinctive campaign so far. Whereas the other five are known as government loyalists, he is the only candidate who departs from this self-congratulatory line. He has been speaking passionately and consistently for months about the need for the party - £24M in debt, membership and vote in freefall - to re-engage with its membership and core vote. His call for stronger rights for agency workers and building more social housing would certainly win my vote if I had one, and explains the support Cruddas has received from the giant merged union, UNITE.

However, I doubt how much resonance this message has within the wider Labour membership, let alone the MPs/MEPs section where he looks certain to struggle. The Blair years have inevitably alienated the Old Left who would have been receptive to this message, but also more progressive soft-Left elements. My suspicion is that the current party membership is more Blairite than ever, after so many defected over Iraq and privatisations. That Cruddas, who worked closely with No 10 for years, has been portrayed as ‘Old Labour’ doesn’t augur well for his chances and he will also have a problem with name recognition.

CURRENT ODDS: 10/1

PETER HAIN

The Northern Ireland secretary, a veteran of the anti-apartheid movement, is best-priced with the bookies at 14/1. He struggled for first choice nominations in the MPs/MEPs college with a similar number to Blears, Benn and Cruddas but shouldn’t be written off just yet. Nobody has been campaigning harder for this job than Hain, who in particular has been courting the unions extensively for years. It seems to be paying dividends having gained the support of ASLEF, the Bakers, Food and Allied Workers’ Union plus two regions of the GMB.
A regular fluent media performer who will have little problem with name recognition, Hain also has a strong political base in Wales, home to a significant proportion of Labour members. It was notable that Hain picked up a defector from Cruddas camp at the weekend, fellow Welsh MP Paul Flynn. I reckon he will emerge as the most popular ‘left’ candidate, and could yet be the biggest threat to Johnson.

CURRENT ODDS: 14/1

ADVISED BETS

LAY HILARY BENN 20pts @ 2/1 or less (BETFAIR)
20pts ALAN JOHNSON @ 2/1 (SKYBET)
5pts HARRIET HARMAN @ 8/1 (HILLS)
5pts PETER HAIN @ 14/1 (HILLS, PADDY POWER)

World Snooker Championship Betting Preview

2007-04-19T06:07:00.000-07:00

There is no better illustration of just how open a sport snooker has become than the list of recent tournament winners. The 13 main knockout events since the beginning of 2006 have yielded 11 different winners, with only Graeme Dott and Neil Robertson winning two. I can also think of at least four other players who I consider to have decent chances in the highlight of the gambling year, the 888.com World Championship which begins on Saturday in Sheffield.

Dott looks a better player than he did a year ago when landing one of my most memorable punts at 66/1. Far from turning out to be a fluke, he has defied many expectations and is now provisionally ranked World No 1. This year the odds are merely 14/1, shortened since an impressive win in the recent China Open and a very manageable draw. History is against him though, with no player having ever successfully defended their first World Championship at the Crucible. And back-to-back tournament winners just don’t seem to happen anymore. For all his qualities as a match player, Dott remains vulnerable to a top-class opponent and no value for a repeat triumph.

In fact that top quarter looks open to an upset in my view. The obvious players are Dott and Stephen Maguire, while Mark Williams would be a massive contender if he somehow could return to form. There’s been no sign of that this year from the twice former World Champion, and Maguire too remains wildly inconsistent. The other five players in the quarter all have plenty of previous Crucible form. Marco Fu reached the semis last year, Ian McCulloch the same in 2005. Joe Swail reached the semis back in 2001 and remains a Crucible favourite, while Antony Hamilton and Joe Perry have both made the quarter-finals. Rather than looking for the tournament winner in this quarter, I’m having a speculative punt on Swail and Perry at decent odds to win the quarter.

With snooker so open the season rankings are not always very reflective and consequently, lop-sided draws are frequent. Its no different this year with the ‘Quarter of Death’ containing Ronnie O’Sullivan, Ding Junhui, John Higgins, Neil Robertson, Ryan Day and Barry Hawkins. For anyone who managed to get 40/1 about Robbo when I advised it last year, I suggest laying the bet off at half the odds leaving a free bet. The young Australian does have a fine chance, but every match of the tournament looks certain to be a tough test from that draw.

The same comment applies to the tournament favourite, Ronnie O’Sullivan. As always, the tournament’s destiny depends on the Rocket’s state of mind and form. My suspicion is that, having been given the worst possible first-round draw he will beat Ding impressively. That will spark the usual crazy plunge on the public’s favourite player, but I have great doubts that Ronnie will maintain his best form for 17 days. And opponents like Robertson and Higgins will be every bit as tough as Ding even before the semi-finals.

Higgins is the best bet in the top-half in my view. I still hold the view that Higgins has been a better player over the last decade than his one world title suggests. This time last year it was he who went off at far too short odds with a tough draw and duly lost in the first-round. This time round I fancy him to get past Michael Holt and Barry Hawkins without too much trouble before it gets difficult from the quarter-finals onwards. This year’s rather generous double-figure odds are the consequence of a generally disappointing year, partially blamed on a mid-season cue change. But Higgins looked in much better form in China, and had previously played top quality snooker in York and Kilkenny so should be well-prepared now. The only player in the top-half of the draw who I’d make favourite against him is Ronnie, and even there I would give Higgins a very decent chance.

The bottom half of the draw looks far less competitive, especially in terms of the non-seeds. In the third quarter, its hard to see beyond SHAUN MURPHY, Ken Doherty and MATTHEW STEVENS. Murphy has played the best snooker out of these three in the past year, especially in Malta and Wales since the turn of the year. He looks more than capable of reproducing the scintillating potting form shown when landing a shock first tournament in this flagship event at 150/1 two years ago. First-round opponent Judd Trump is widely mentioned as a future World Champion, but his qualifying results don’t suggest he’s ready to contend here just yet. Should Murphy land the odds here, he would then at worst ways face Steve Davis in the last-16, a man he’s trounced in both of the last two years over best-of-25. Murphy seems to prefer the longer matches and looks very much the one to beat in this section.

Stevens too could be overpriced given his Crucible record. Despite consistently failing in the season’s bread and butter tournaments where most games are played over best of 9, the Welshman has only failed to reach the last-8 at Sheffield once since 1998 and has twice gone agonisingly close to becoming World Champion only to get touched off in memorable finals by Murphy and Williams. Despite a declining ranking, Stevens retains all his ability and is no forlorn hope to yet land the sport’s ultimate prize. The odds of 22/1 look good value, especially considering a relatively straightforward opener against Mark Delaney.

In the bottom quarter, Stephen Hendry and PETER EBDON dominate the betting, but don’t rule out 40/1 chance MARK SELBY. Hendry and Ebdon both have easy starts against Dave Gilbert and Nigel Bond so will probably trade shorter than their current odds as other seeds bite the dust early on. If they do meet in the quarters my preference would be for Ebdon who looks the better player over long matches nowadays. I’m not worried about Ebdon’s indifferent form since winning the UK Championship last December when he decisively beat Hendry in the final. He’s another player who distinctly improves over longer frames and seems to plan his season around the Crucible. Like Higgins, a second world title would be the icing on a tremendous career.

But to get to the quarters, Ebdon may have to beat Selby in the last-16. The only thing deterring me from backing Selby on the outright is that, because of his non-seed status, backing him in some sort of game by game accumulator will probably represent better value than the 40/1 available. I make him my first round nap at 4/5 to eliminate Stephen Lee and will press on from there if he wins. My strategy would be to re-invest any profit from the Lee match on an each-way outright bet before the second round.

Selby needs a good run to make the elite top-16 for next season, progress that has taken longer than expected after he burst onto the scene reaching the 2003 Scottish Open final as an unknown. He played some brilliant snooker at the Crucible last year to eliminate Higgins and emerged with credit from a cracking second-round match against Williams. I’m very confident Selby will break his tournament duck sooner rather than later, and though its asking a lot to win your first tournament at the Crucible but that hasn’t stopped Dott and Murphy in the last two years.

Good Luck!

888.COM WORLD SNOOKER CHAMPIONSHIPS

ADVISED BETS

5pts ew JOHN HIGGINS @ 14/1 (BETFRED)
5pts win SHAUN MURPHY @ 10/1 (PADDY POWER, STAN JAMES)
5pts ew PETER EBDON @ 14/1 (BETFRED, EXPEKT)
3pts ew MATTHEW STEVENS @ 22/1 (CORALS)

1ST ROUND

15pts MARK SELBY @ 4/5 (VS STEPHEN LEE)

TO WIN 1ST QUARTER

2.5pts JOE PERRY @ 14/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER)
2.5pts JOE SWAIL @ 16/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER)

Cricket World Cup Betting Preview

2007-03-09T02:37:00.000-08:00

There is a certain school of thought that the World Cup, that begins on Tuesday, is played over too long a period. Certainly this is a marathon, with 51 matches spread over 6 weeks, and I can understand how the non-gambling cricket connoiseur might find some of the less competitive first phase matches a little tiresome. But if you love both cricket and gambling, this is heaven. Australia vs Scotland may be an entirely predictable result and no-contest, but any experienced gambler knows there is plenty of fun to be had playing the top batman, handicap, or total runs markets, not to mention the dozens of spreads available on each and every game. Its also a chance to see numerous cricketing legends in their final major tournament, including Brian Lara, Sachin Tendulkar, Glenn McGrath and Adam Gilchrist. There are so many potential value bets on offer, the best way to go about this is to assess each of the major teams individually, with reference to their overall chance and the speciality markets that apply to that team only as well.

AUSTRALIA

Ever since their facile defence in South Africa 4 years ago, the Australians have been red-hot favourites for a third consecutive world crown. And after regaining the Ashes with a whitewash and winning their first 6 games in the Commonwealth Bank Series, it did look hard to see exactly how they could be stopped. But the wheels came off quite spectacularly with 5 consecutive defeats. England beat them 2-0 in the Commonwealth Bank Series Final, and then New Zealand won the Chappel-Hadlee Series 3-0, chasing down scores of over 335 in the last two games. Matters were compounded by injuries to Brett Lee, Matthew Hayden and Andrew Symonds, with the first-named ruled out of this tournament, and the other pair still uncertain to play before the second phase.

There's no problem with the batting or fielding. In the One-Day World Rankings, 4 of the top-10 batsmen are Australian, with Mike Hussey in top spot and Ricky Ponting third. But the question marks over the depth and quality of their bowling loom larger than ever. They are severely weakened by the absence of Lee, one of the best limited-overs bowlers in the world and a critical presence in the potentially costly closing overs. Glenn McGrath is still very economical if slightly less of a wicket-taking threat, but the back-up is meagre. Nathan Bracken and Stuart Clark are nothing out of the ordinary in one-day cricket, while Shane Watson and Brad Hogg looked ineffective and expensive in the middle overs in those recent defeats. On these slow Caribbean pitches, taking the pace off the ball and defending during those middle overs could be the single biggest determinant. And here, the favourites look very, very weak.

In the speciality team markets, McGrath may have lost a bit of pace, but he still looks a rock-solid bet to be the most economical bowler. His career average economy of 3.83 is incomparable to the rest of this moderate attack, with next best figures being Bracken with 4.45, a trend strongly confirmed in the Chappel-Hadlee series.

VERDICT: No sensible person would ever write the Aussies off but the current odds of 9/4 represent appalling value.

ADVISED BETS

6pts GLENN MCGRATH @ 5/2 - MOST ECONOMICAL AUSTRALIAN BOWLER (STAN JAMES)

SOUTH AFRICA

For my money South Africa, newly installed as the top-ranked one-day side, are the most likely winners of the event. Since returning to international cricket, they have looked strong contenders in each World Cup, only to fall short of the final each time. Usually they've gone down in classics, most memorably falling to the Aussies in the 1999 semi in England, when Alan Donald ran himself out needing one run to win. Last time on home turf, it was Mark Boucher's inability to correctly calculate the required Duckworth-Lewis run-rate.

They have a settled, strong side full of players better suited to one-day cricket than Tests. Makhaya Ntini could easily finish up as top tournament bowler while Shaun Pollock and Jacques Kallis are the type of genuinely world-class all-rounders that are invaluable in limited overs cricket. Equally players like Justin Kemp, Charl Langeveldt and Andrew Hall rarely look top-class at Test level but offer valuable contributions in the one-day game. The batting line-up is very strong, with four of the opening five - Graeme Smith, Kallis, Herschelle Gibbs and Ashwell Prince - all expected to make significant contributions at some stage. Their only weakness is the lack of a top-quality slower bowler, with Smith and Kemp most likely to share the 5th bowler duties. In stark contrast to the Aussies, South Africa come here in the best of form, having just hammered India and Pakistan in recent one-day series.

VERDICT: A rock-solid chance of atoning for previous World Cup disappointments.

ADVISED BETS

10pts SOUTH AFRICA TO WIN THE TROPHY @ 9/2
3pts MAKHAYA NTINI TOP TOURNAMENT WICKET-TAKER @ 10/1 (GENERAL)

WEST INDIES

Its 28 years since the West Indies last won the World Cup, and for the last decade or so the reputation of Caribbean cricket has been in freefall. But with the trophy being held in the Caribbean for the first time, and Brian Lara desperate to impress in his final World Cup, a sporting fairytale looks increasingly possible.

The Windies have emerged in recent years as a quality one-day outfit, unrecognisable from the side that has struggled so badly in Test cricket. They won the 2005 ICC Champions Trophy in England, and lost in the final of its renewal in India late last year to Australia. In Chris Gayle, they have a potentially match-winning destructive opener, who can also be relied upon to provide economical slow bowling in the middle overs. Ramnaresh Sarwan and Shivarine Chanderpaul perfectly compliment Lara in the middle-order and I expect emerging all-rounder Dwayne Bravo to be one of the stars of the tournament. There doesn't really look to be a weakness in the side, as the fast bowlers are usually well-backed up by a variety of slower bowling options, with Gayle, Marlon Samuels and even Dwayne Smith all well capable of doing a containing job.

With fanatical home support guaranteed, they look the best value bet to win the trophy. I think the tournament top runscorer market could be dominated by openers, as they'll probably play a few more innings when set small totals by the minnows. And in those one-sided games, I expect at least a couple are likely to hit very big scores. Gayle looks the most likely and best value candidate here, at odds of 16/1. And on the speciality bet front, Corey Collymore is well over-priced at 10/1 to be top bowler in a wide-open market.

VERDICT: Strong contenders on home turf and the best value outright bet.

ADVISED BETS

6pts WINDIES TO WIN TROPHY @ 8/1 (BETFAIR)
4pts COREY COLLYMORE - TOP WINDIES WICKET-TAKER @ 10/1 (LADBROKES, TOTE)

1pt ew CHRIS GAYLE TOP TOURNAMENT RUNSCORER @ 16/1 (GENERAL)

PAKISTAN

For as long as I've been watching the game, Pakistan have been a cricketing enigma. Full of talented players with both bat and ball, persistently undone by indiscipline, inconsistency, infighting or a combination of all three. This time looks no exception. On their recent tour of South Africa, the visitors manage to intersperse a record-breaking 351 in Durban with three low totals and crushing defeats. Mohammed Yousuf was the leading batsman in world cricket in 2006, with Inzaman and Younis Khan cementing a world-class middle-order, while all-rounder Shahid Afridi can win a game virtually single-handed if allowed to settle at the crease.

However any idea of backing them in this competition went out the window with the news that talented fast-bowling duo Mohammed Asif and Shoaib Akhtar are to miss the event, along with all-rounder Abdul Razzaq. Their lack of strength in bowling depth was clear to see when similarly short of manpower in the recent ICC Trophy, and I seriously doubt they'll be a factor this time. Expect them to concede some big totals here.

VERDICT: Will struggle without Asif and Akhtar.

INDIA

Despite reaching the final in 2003 and an extremely talented line-up, the Indians are another side that have tended to under-achieve. Their batting line-up is particularly formidable with Tendulkar, Dravid, Ganguly and Sehwag all world-class match-winners. Wicket-keeper Dhoni has moved to No.2 in the world one-day batting rankings with some explosive efforts and could be one of the stars of the tournament. Another positive is the wide choice of slow bowlers for use during the middle overs, when containment is the key. On the recent form of a home series win against Sri Lanka, they have to be taken very seriously but its hard to get away from a recent poor travelling record. In South Africa, they were blown away 4-0, and on last year's trip to the West Indies they also suffered a comprehensive 4-1 defeat.

Again the top Indian wicket-taker market looks wide open, with both Munaf Patel and Sri Sreesanth representing excellent value at 8/1 and 9/1 respectively. They were first and joint-third in the wicket-taking stakes against Sri Lanka, and Sreesanth was outstanding in the recent Test series against South Africa.

VERDICT: Potentially dangerous, but doubts remain outside the sub-continent.

ADVISED BETS

3pts MUNAF PATEL TOP INDIAN WICKET-TAKER @ 8/1 (LADBROKES)
3pts SRI SREESANTH TOP INDIAN WICKET-TAKER @ 9/1 (TOTE)

SRI LANKA

No team comes in better prepared than the 1995 champions. Coach Tom Moody has been on record in defining this event as their main goal for the last year and they certainly look one of the likeliest winners. Everything depends on the ability of the top-order to deal with new ball. Jayasuriya and Thuranga are often devastating in the power plays, but at the same time their weakness has always been in conditions favourable to pace bowling. Failures on recent tours of India and New Zealand came as a direct consequence of this. Indeed they have usually been vulnerable outside the sub-continent, but their outstanding 5-0 Natwest Series win in England last year lingers in the memory. And while Murali will probably be the most dangerous and economical middle-over bowler in the tournament, he is far from the only threat. Chaminda Vaas was the leading wicket-taker in the last World Cup while Lasith Malinga looks a rising star. This time I fancy the younger man to challenge for top honours.

VERDICT: Should make the semis at least.

ADVISED BET

3pts MURALI MOST ECONOMICAL TOURNAMENT BOWLER @ 10/1 (STAN JAMES)
1pt ew LASITH MALINGA TOP TOURNAMENT WICKET-TAKER @ 18/1 (BLUESQ)

NEW ZEALAND

The Kiwis have a long held reputation as a top one-day side but the cracks have started to show lately. Until that astonishing Chappel-Hadlee series whitewash over Australia, they had looked badly out of sorts all winter. Whereas they have previously batted all the way down the order, their line-up looks more brittle and shorter than usual. With Nathan Astle retired, and captain Stephen Fleming struggling, there's been far too much reliance on Jacob Oram and Brendan McCullum to bail the middle-order out. The ever-impressive Shane Bond looks the only bowler capable of doing serious damage. They also looked uncharacteristically out of sorts in the field on occasion in recent matches, and have struggled to find the right bowling balance with part-timers like Scott Styris looking ineffective.

Oram's successful recovery from injury remains the key and essential to them having any chance at all in my view. Wicket-keeper batsman McCullum looks outstanding each-way value to be top runscorer.

VERDICT: Pinning all their hopes on Bond and Oram. Up against it in any case.

ADVISED BET

2pts ew BRENDAN MCCULLUM TOP RUNSCORER @ 20/1 (LADBROKES)

ENGLAND

No-hopers two months ago, England have suddenly become very live contenders. Perhaps by accident rather than design, the selectors appear to have found a nice balance for once. Liam Plunkett was superb in the Commonwealth Bank Series, and along with James Anderson, Monty Panesar, Jon Lewis and star all-rounder Andrew Flintoff there is plenty of strikepower in the bowling. Economical spinner Jamie Dalyrimple and veteran wicket-keeper Paul Nixon add depth to the batting. On his return from injury, Kevin Pieterson is widely expected to be one of the batting stars of the tournament, and Paul Collingwood regularly proves invaluable as a world class fielder and middle-order 'finisher'. After so many years of one-day failure, one fears over-reacting but everything does look in place for a very serious tilt at winning the trophy.

The spreads look the best route to backing England. For instance, Spreadex offer a performance index which can be bought at 39. As long as they make the Super Eight, (a foregone conclusion surely), the maximum loss is 14 points and if they qualify for the last-4 we're guaranteed at least 11 points profit.

VERDICT: Have found their form at exactly the right time. An excellent chance of progressing to the latter stages and even pulling off a victory that would have seemed unthinkable at the start of the year.

ADVISED BET

BUY ENGLAND ON OUTRIGHT SPREAD 5pts @ 39 (100/75/50/25/0) (SPREADEX)

Sports Betting Advisory Service & Weekly Golf Preview

2007-03-09T02:36:00.000-08:00

For anyone looking for the weekly golf column, it now appears exclusively at http://www.golf-monthly.co.uk/

As well as being available for commissions as a freelance journalist, I am still providing cricket, snooker and politics betting previews on this site free of charge. These make up a very small percentage of my turnover every week and are basically just an introduction to the events in question.I am also still providing a subscription service for a more comprehensive daily analysis of the day's best value. There is a mixture of outright bets, and in-running trades. Two subscription options are available. For £10 per week, you'll get the comprehensive golf analysis which will consist of at least three e-mails each week. At the start of the week, I'll pinpoint the early trading value and then after Rounds 2 and 3, I'll advise you of all the best trades ahead of that day's play. The other option is, at £20 per week, a comprehensive analysis of all the sporting events that my attention will be focussed on. Apart from golf, the main sports I cover are cricket, snooker, international football, top-class National Hunt racing and the occasional tennis tournament. As well as these, I'll share any politics betting advice if and when a suitable market arises. There will be a Paypal option on the site very soon, but for now you'll have to contact me to arrange payment. You can either e-mail me at paulmotty@hotmail.com or leave a message and e-mail address below. Good Luck!

Masters Snooker Betting Preview

2007-01-12T14:41:00.000-08:00

The Saga Insurance Masters event at Wembley is the first of 4 events over the next 11 weeks in the build-up to April's World Championship jamboree. With the field always restricted to the top-16 and four wildcards, the number of pitfalls for the stars are considerably fewer than ranking events. Consequently, this event has rarely produced shock winners with only four winners since the 1980s starting at double-figure odds.

As always, the market is headed by Ronnie O'Sullivan. Yet again the Rocket starts a ridiculously short price for a player who has probably cost favourite backers more money than anyone else in the history of sport. Many of his loyal backers may have had enough after his walkout in the middle of his quarter-final in York, but I still expect any brilliant early performances will spark the usual over-reaction. Lets not forget he was also scintillating in the Premier League, and in his last-16 match at York, just as he was up until the semi-finals at Sheffield last year. Yet on the two latter occasions, he blew out miserably in the latter stages. It seems hard for Ronnie to remain focussed for the full length of any event, though if he's going to do it anywhere, one might think it would be here, on home turf in London. O'Sullivan has, after all, reached six of the last 11 Masters finals. It also cannot be ruled out that, for once, he is genuinely up for it having blotted his copybook so badly at York.

O'Sullivan has been handed a decent draw, with Ken Doherty the only top-class threat in his quarter. A much bigger danger lies in his potential semi-final opponent, last year's conquerer JOHN HIGGINS. Though winless so far this season, Higgins played well enough in the last two ranking events to suggest he's got as strong a chance as anyone as he bids for a third Masters title. I make Higgins a very warm favourite to emerge from the top quarter ahead of dangerous Neil Robertson and the struggling Mark Williams and Stephen Maguire.

But the best value lies in the other half of the draw. Presuming DING JUNHUI can safely negotiate his opener against Antony Hamilton, then the key game in this half of the draw could be his next match against UK Championship winner Peter Ebdon. Ebdon was superb in York, not least when beating Ding quite comprehensively. If he can reproduce those efforts, then 14/1 would be a crazy price here, but I can't ever recall Ebdon winning two events in a row and marginally prefer Ding to gain revenge. For me, Ding is increasingly the man to beat. His best, as seen in the Northern Ireland Classic final and his opening session in York against MATTHEW STEVENS, is almost unbeatable.

The third quarter looks by far the weakest with one quarter-finalist certain to be either the increasingly disappointing Shaun Murphy or Steve Davis. Stevens must be expected to knock out Jimmy White to set up a second-round match against Stephen Hendry. Despite making the final at York, Hendry did little to convince me that he is not a player in decline. Stevens has a decent record in recent big matches between the pair, and looks a reasonable each-way investment at 20/1.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

SAGA INSURANCE MASTERS SNOOKER

10pts win DING JUNHUI @ 6/1 (LADBROKES, CORALS)
5pts win JOHN HIGGINS @ 7/1 (PREMIERBET, VCBET)
3pts ew MATTHEW STEVENS @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP

10pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 40/1

Sports Betting Advisory Service and Weekly Golf Column

2007-01-12T14:33:00.000-08:00

For anyone looking for the weekly golf column, it now appears exclusively at http://www.golfmonthly.co.uk/

As well as being available for commissions as a freelance journalist, I am still providing cricket, snooker and politics betting previews on this site free of charge. These make up a very small percentage of my turnover every week and are basically just an introduction to the events in question.I am also still providing a subscription service for a more comprehensive daily analysis of the day's best value.

There is a mixture of outright bets, and in-running trades. Two subscription options are available. For £10 per week, you'll get the comprehensive golf analysis which will consist of at least three e-mails each week. At the start of the week, I'll pinpoint the early trading value and then after Rounds 2 and 3, I'll advise you of all the best trades ahead of that day's play. The other option is, at £20 per week, a comprehensive analysis of all the sporting events that my attention will be focussed on. Apart from golf, the main sports I cover are cricket, snooker, international football, top-class National Hunt racing and the occasional tennis tournament. As well as these, I'll share any politics betting advice if and when a suitable market arises. There will be a Paypal option on the site very soon, but for now you'll have to contact me to arrange payment. You can either e-mail me at paulmotty@hotmail.com or leave a message and e-mail address below. Good Luck!

UK Snooker Championship Preview

2006-12-04T17:18:00.000-08:00

The second biggest event of the snooker calendar began yesterday in York, the UK Championships. The tournament takes place over the next fortnight, with the seeded players opening their campaigns on Wednesday. With matches played over best of 17 frames than the usual best of 9, this tournament has always tended to follow the formbook and yield predictable results. Even in the past 2 years, while the winners have been unseeded, neither Stephen Maguire or Ding Junhui were shock winners.

The problem nowadays is working out exactly what the formbook says. Tournaments are so few and far between, and the three we've had so far have each used a different format. The Northern Ireland Classic, a low key affair if ever there was one, was a standard knockout with most matches played over best of 9. The Grand Prix was played partly in a round-robin group format over best of 5, with many contenders eliminated early amidst that particular lottery. And once again Ronnie O'Sullivan dominated the Premier League, where the short matches and fast paced play suit him down to a tee. I wouldn't take too much notice of that form though, as two of his six vanquished rivals there were Steve Davis and Jimmy White, while Ding missed the finals due to Asian Games commitments.

Snooker has only become a wide-open betting heat in recent years - normally this is a sport dominated by the elite players. But the last few years have seen a long-standing elite slip into slow decline, and no single player has been good enough to dominate. Ronnie remains prohibitively priced for every event, but ultimately flatters to deceive. I can't think of any sporting star that has so regularly let down odds-on backers. Stephen Hendry is a very pale shadow of the player who dominated snooker for a decade, yet incredibly is world ranked No 1. Ken Doherty is the provisional top-ranked player, but has got there without improving. An opportunity to dominate the game exists for any young star who can mature quickly into the type of competitor in the Davis/Hendry mould.

Bearing that in mind, having downed Ronnie in the NI Classic, its easy to make a very strong case for a successful defence for Ding. The Chinese prodigy is one of two young players in particular who look certain to contend for multiple world titles over the next decade - Ding and NEIL ROBERTSON. Its particularly interesting to see that they have won the two open events so far. The only problem with Ding here is that he has a very tricky draw, with potentially Ryan Day, Matthew Stevens, Peter Ebdon and John Higgins barring his route to the final.

As always with snooker betting, the absolute key is trying to calculate which areas of the draw are weakest. One quarter particularly takes the eye. In the bottom quarter, its very hard to see a semi-finalist emerging other than Robertson, SHAUN MURPHY and world champ Graeme Dott. 2005 World Champion Murphy is long overdue another win. He's certainly got the talent and temperament to win, and seems a better player over the longer frames. In fact, it was Robertson who knocked Murphy out last season here in a cracker. Unless Dott can stop the Aussie in the second round, I strongly expect to see a classic Murphy/Robbo quarter-final. If this is the case, by backing both Murphy and Robertson now, we will be guaranteed an 8/1 chance in the semis at attractive each-way terms.

The player I fear most is John Higgins, who I believe was the best player last season. His draw is perfectly reasonable, but the odds of 6/1 are nothing out of the ordinary. A better value bet lies with dual world champion MARK WILLIAMS at 16/1. Towards the end of last season, Williams looked almost back to his best, and may well have added a third World crown had he not lost a classic to Ronnie at Sheffield. His Aberdeen efforts were curtailed by injury, but provided all is now well as reported, the Welsh star is a big threat to all here.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

10pts ew SHAUN MURPHY @ 16/1 (PADDY POWER, STAN JAMES, HILLS)
10pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 16/1 (HILLS)
10pts win MARK WILLIAMS @ 16/1 (SPORTING ODDS, PADDY POWER, STAN JAMES, HILLS)

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP

10pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 40/1

Ashes 2006 Betting Preview

2006-11-21T16:35:00.000-08:00

14 months ago, when England completed that amazing first Ashes victory in two decades at The Oval, there was much talk of a new world order in cricket. At last the Australian juggernaut had shown sign of cracks, and at last there was a genuinely world-class pace bowling attack capable of regularly dismissing that awesome batting line-up had emerged. Sadly, that all seems a brief moment in time now. While we can hope for another thrilling Ashes series and dream that England may once again be able to give as good as they get, its hard to see anything but a comprehensive victory for the hosts.

Reverting to 2005, there were several key reasons behind England's triumph. First and foremost, all the pace bowlers were outstanding and a permanent threat. The prodigious reverse-swing achieved by Simon Jones in particular wrought havoc upon the Australian middle-order, with Shane Warne and Brett Lee left to drag the total to respectability on more than one occasion. Michael Vaughan's inspirational captaincy. Home advantage was also a factor, and it certainly helped England's cause that Glenn McGrath missed three Tests. Some Australians have suggested their preparation was less than perfect after a gruelling tour of India.

There are so many different conditions to take into account this time. England's pace attack is a pale shadow of its former self. Jones is absent, Flintoff has spent most of the year out injured and Steve Harmison is badly out of form. Matthew Hoggard will doubtless be his normal dependable self, and will have to put in some long, tiring spells in the heat this winter. On the plus side, Monty Panesar is a great find and brings a new dimension to England's repertoire. I also still rate James Anderson as a bowler of potential, well capable of doing some damage with the new ball on Australian pitches. However, the bowling threat will be further weakened in comparison to 2005 by the fact that there will be less swing on offer.

Equally the Australians look stronger, and with home advantage as formidable opponent as one is ever likely to encounter in Test cricket. The direct swap of Michael Hussey to the middle-order in favour of Simon Katich is a massive improvement. Whereas Katich averaged just 27.5 from nine laboured innings in England, Hussey has looked inpenetrable since making a belated Test debut in the following series. In eleven Tests, he has already amassed 1139 runs at an average of just under 76. And this time, it is Australia who have enjoyed the perfect, long preparation. Meanwhile England have to make do without skipper Michael Vaughan and Marcus Trescothick.

If there's a glimmer of hope for England, it would seem the Australian bowling attack is less potent than others faced on recent Ashes tours. Warne remains the key threat as he chases his 700th wicket, but McGrath has lost a yard of pace and whilst still a canny, economical bowler is not the threat of old. Brett Lee is a decent strike bowler but not noticeably better than his English opposites. In the matches he plays, I shall be buying Stuart Clark's wickets. Another player who has come into the side later in his career than most, Clark was outstanding on the South African tour, doing a very passable impression of Glenn McGrath with his nagging line and length. From 4 Tests, Clark has an impressive return of 21 wickets at an average of 18.76, and so should not be underestimated. But if England can somehow limit the Warne effect, they have a chance.

From a betting perspective, the problem is that bookies seem to agree entirely with my analysis. There's not a lot of sense in backing Australia to win the series at a completely prohibitive 1/5. I usually find the best market for Test series betting is the correct score market. Statistics prove comprehensively that Test match draws are very rare in this part of the world. Only 3 of the last 37 have not produced a result, with Australia winning an incredible 31. England aren't exactly draw specialists either with only 7 draws in their last 29 competitive Tests (discounting Bangladesh and Zimbabwe). Only 2 of the last 16 Ashes Tests have failed to produce a result. Both sides have naturally attacking batsmen so the fast run-rate normally ensures a result unless the weather intervenes. Even looking at the two drawn matches last time, both were severely weather affected, and at Old Trafford, England only needed one more wicket for the victory.

So with results expected, and with Australia apparent certainties at 1.2 (Betfair), I like a combination of 3-1 and 4-1 as the series scoreline. At 6/1 and 9/1 respectively, this looks far more attractive as a betting proposition. The combined odds here are just over 3/1, and if the early matches at least produce favourable results there will be potential savers to bank profit out of the bet towards the end of the series.

If you're looking for an interest on the spreads here, the one market I like the look of is Sporting Index's "Tails of the Unexpected" which is the cumulitive score of Australia's batsmen from 8-11 and we can buy at 325. This would have yielded a handsome profit in the last Ashes, and we've still got Shane Warne and Brett Lee on our side against a signicantly less effective bowling line-up. Remember the trouble England had eliminating Sri Lanka's tail in the early summer? It transformed the series. Even Glenn McGrath shared a century stand a few years ago so the sky's the limit for this bet as far as I'm concerned. And there is also one potential dream scenario - that at some stage a night-watchman is required, and Adam Gilchrist bats at number 8.

The other spread price I shall be looking for tomorrow is that of Stuart Clark in the 1st Test. As I alluded to above, he could be seriously under-estimated. Unfortunately there are no current prices available and may not be until the team is confirmed, so a decision will have to be taken at the very last minute.

Good Luck!

SERIES CORRECT SCORE

20pts AUSTRALIA TO WIN 3-1 @ 6/1 (PREMIERBET, 7.4 ON BETFAIR)
14pts AUSTRALIA 4-1 @ 9/1 (LADBROKES, 10.5 ON BETFAIR)

SPREADS

BUY AUSTRALIAN TAILS OF THE UNEXPECTED 1pt @ 325 (SPORTING INDEX)
LOOK OUT FOR STUART CLARK MATCH OR SERIES WICKET SPREAD PRICES TOMORROW

Weekly Golf Preview

2006-11-07T17:00:00.000-08:00

From this week, the start of the 2006/2007 European Tour season, my weekly golf preview will now be available exclusively at www.golf-monthly.co.uk

If you wish to speak to me about the extended tipping service, that covers in-running golf, cricket, snooker and political betting, please contact me on paulmotty@hotmail.com. I am offering a free trial period at the moment.

Apologies to anyone who has tried to contact me on golfpunter@tiscali.co.uk in the past fortnight. This address has been unavailable to me, and due to a combination of flu and laziness, I haven't got round to resolving the issue! I will contact you in the next couple of days.

Many Thanks

Paul

FINAL STATS FOR 2005/2006 SEASON: +144.5pts

PREVIOUS YEARS

2004/2005: +49.5pts
2003/2004: +93pts

Tour Championship Preview

2006-11-01T08:16:00.000-08:00

The final event of the 2005/2006 PGA Tour season has been severely undermined by the optional absence of the world's two leading players, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. Its no great shock to see Mickelson opting for a long winter, but Woods' decision to take another week's rest before heading to the Far East next week is bizarre. On the positive side, it leaves us with an interesting betting heat which probably wouldn't have been the case had Tiger played.

27 players remain in the event, of which 12 have never played the East Lake course. The best form on the course is held by Vijay Singh and Retief Goosen. However Goose cannot be backed after a poor season by his standards, and I'm just not prepared to back Singh after he let me down badly again at the weekend. Jim Furyk is a very worthy favourite after the best season of his career. He came 3rd here in 1999 and on all recent form deserves to be labelled the best player around bar Tiger, but I can think of better single-figure bets than Furyk, who while wonderfully consistent has never really been a prolific winner. The resurgent Davis Love comes here in fine form and also has a great record at East Lake, but his price of 12/1 is just too short for a man who had looked in terminal decline until about 6 weeks ago.

At the odds, the one that really stands out is ADAM SCOTT at 14/1. Presumably this is a reaction to last week's missed cut, but I never fancied him to do much at Copperhead and on all other 2006 form and his last three rounds at East Lake in 2005, the young Aussie has a favourite's chance in my view. While his only recent win has come in Singapore, it should be noted that Scott has seven top-5 finishes since May, including runner-up to Woods in the WGC on his penultimate start. 7th in this event last year did him great credit after a poor start.

My other two selections are course debutants at much bigger odds. Firstly AARON OBERHOLSER remains a player very much on my short-list after another very promising year. Since winning his first event at Pebble Beach, he threatened to contend for a long way in both of the season's first two Majors, plus Sawgrass. His schedule is lighter than most - a sensible move in my view - but his form has held throughout with three consecutive top-12s in August and September including the two WGC events. Recent greens in regulation statistics read very nicely, as do his final three rounds on his last event a fortnight ago.

Finally, I'm sticking with last week's unlucky selection ROD PAMPLING. Hopefully some of you will have found a firm offering top-6 for each-way bets on the Aussie. I didn't and was doubly frustrated on Sunday night following the Paul Casey saga to see Pamps finish a shot out of the frame at 125/1. But what this confirms is that Rod is in top nick approaching a crucial time of the year for him, with the Australasian season about to commence. The Bay Hill winner looks very fair value again here at 50/1.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

4pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew AARON OBERHOLSER @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew ROD PAMPLING @ 50/1 (LADBROKES, PADDY POWER, HILLS, SPORTINGBET)

Good Luck!

2006 STATS: +78.5pts
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

Betting Previews for Volvo Masters & Chrysler Championship

2006-10-24T16:15:00.000-07:00

The final act of this year's Order of Merit race is upon us as the 2005-2006 European Tour season comes to a conclusion at Valderrama this weekend. Before the 2006-2007 starts in a fortnight in Hong Kong, there's two more weeks of the US season left, with next week's Tour Championship to follow on from this week's Chrysler Championship. As always, the Volvo Masters Andalucia is an extremely lucrative affair, which means that we are still a long way from counting the winnings from OOM leader Paul Casey. With the first two prizes 666,660 and 444,440 Euros respectively, Casey needs to finish third to make Padraig Harrington or David Howell need the win rather than second place, while Robert Karlsson has a squeak if he can win the event and the others all finish 3rd or worse.

So far, not bothering with the saver has paid dividends. The only plausible saver is to lay Casey on Betfair at around 1/3, but I'm going to take my chances anyway. After all, its heavily odds-on that none of the contenders will win here, especially considering their ordinary course records, and as long as they don't run away with it a saver is always a possibility in-running. Having said that, I do make Casey very much one to oppose around the quirky layout of Valderrama. His main quality, length and strength, is fairly irrelevant around here, where accuracy is at an absolute premium.

One of the consequences of Valderrama's quirks is that few players relish the test, and many
have atrocious records yet still turn up for the guaranteed prize money. The two that really stand out are the two highest ranked players and market leaders, SERGIO GARCIA and LUKE DONALD. The bookies aren't giving much away at 7/1 and 9/1 respectively, but its very hard to see either being far away and will both probably at least trade much shorter. Garcia has finished runner-up for the last two years and never worse than 7th. I think this course suits him as well as any as it rewards his magnificent long game and penalises his inability to hole a putt less than most. The greens here are so hard very few lengthy birdie putts are holed by anyone. This also plays into Donald's hands, who rarely misses a green in regulation. Interestingly, Donald finished like a train last year in 3rd and looked to be getting the hang of a course that takes some knowing. After all, he has only played eight rounds here and for the first time, comes here fresh.

Another player who might have benefitted over the years because of the nature of the greens here is COLIN MONTGOMERIE, who is a very big price at 25/1 considering his great course record. Joint-winner in 2002, Monty looked set for another win here last year before he and Garcia shared a catastrophic final 2-ball to let in Paul McGinley. Like Sergio, Monty will be desperate to land his first win of the season, especially when it hasn't been so bad. After all, he probably came closer to winning a Major in 2006 than he ever has or will. And he was playing well enough last month to finish 6th in Germany under far less suitable conditions.

On the basis of his course record, rising star BRADLEY DREDGE also looks worth an each-way punt at 28/1. Dredge finished 3rd to Monty and Langer in 2002 and has made the top-15 on three out of four visits to Valderrama. After an improved 2005 where he promised much but consistently failed to produce the goods on the final day and some similar frustrations in 2006, last month's runaway win at Crans Sur Sierre may have marked a significant step in the Welshman's career. It was very interesting to see him finish runner-up to Harrington in his next start at the Dunhill Links, especially considering the fact that Bradley has never looked at his best on links courses. Clearly, Dredge's confidence at an all-time high, and should be persevered with when conditions suit, as they most certainly do here.

There was a period at the weekend where I thought I'd finally cracked the impossible PGA Tour with a 50/1 winner when Justin Rose was 8 shots ahead, but alas his putting fell apart over the weekend and we had to settle for a place behind Joe Durant, more in keeping with the usual Stateside winner in that he never even appeared on my radar. The Chrysler Championship, however, has produced top-class winners in recent years in the form of VIJAY SINGH, Retief Goosen and to a lesser extent Carl Pettersson and KJ Choi. For this reason, I'm prepared to lay out a bit more than in recent weeks here.

Furthermore, there's plenty of class on show, with Ernie Els playing here for the first time along with Singh, Goosen and Adam Scott from the world's top-10. The player I really like though is another course debutant, rising star TREVOR IMMELMAN. For my money, Immelman is the emerging player of 2006. He's been labelled a superstar in the making since practising with Els as a kid, and after steady progress on the Sunshine and European Tours, Trevor has at last come of age in the States. His win over Tiger and Vijay at the Western Open in July confirmed he has the temperament to compete in the highest company, and looking back over the past six months confirms that he is now one of the very best around and getting better. Immelman's last 13 starts have yielded 7 top-10s and the only two occasions he failed to make the top-20 were Majors - in fact his lowest position of 34th came after a lay-off for the birth of his first child. 14th place at the weekend was also slightly misleading as he threw in one disastrous triple-bogey at the end of round 3 that transformed his position on the leaderboard.

Deciding whether to include Vijay here was a real dilemma. He has been impossible to get right all season, much of the time looking like a player in decline but being the old warrior that he is, Vijay always seems to bounce back as soon as we start to write him off. His record at Copperhead is excellent, finishing runner-up in 2003 before winning in 2004, and then astounding favourite backers when missing a rare cut last year! But on the basis of Sunday's finish, Singh is more than capable of winning again soon. He started the last round eight shots behind yet still made the place money. I'm not going to get over-excited about his chances, but he probably has the best chance of the stars on show here, and 14/1 is very big considering the course record.

Its also hard not to make a case for STEWART CINK at 25/1 after he finished 3rd here last year. My only nagging doubt is that he's not the most prolific winner out there, but its also true that Cink has not played a bad event since the unsuitable Open Championship. One of very few Americans to emerge from the Ryder Cup debacle with any credit, Stewart also played well for the first three rounds the following week as Tiger ran away with the Amex. He also nearly won the previous WGC event at Firestone only to be touched off by the great man, one of four top-5 finishes in his last nine starts.

Though I don't rate him in quite the same league as Immelman, SEAN O'HAIR is another exciting prospect fancied to go well here. The US are clearly struggling to produce a new generation of stars ready to improve on a dire recent Ryder Cup record, but I rate O'Hair as highly as anyone. In stark contrast to Singh, a poor final round at the weekend turned a winning chance into an average week, but there was enough encouragement from the first three rounds to confirm that the form that brought two top-4 finishes in August and September is still there. Interestingly, Sean made the top-10 on his course debut last year. In my view, he's improved in the meantime and can take a hand in the finish.

Finally, at the crazy odds of 125/1, I've just got to have a small interest on Bay Hill winner ROD PAMPLING. Copperhead is a course that favours the best iron players, hence the good record of the leading players. Pampling normally relishes such courses, which goes some way to explain his Bay Hill win and a good record at Augusta. 4th place here in 2002 also confirms his liking for the course.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

VOLVO MASTERS

6pts win SERGIO GARCIA @ 7/1 (BETFRED, LADBROKES, VCBET)
6pts win LUKE DONALD @ 9/1 (BETFRED, CORALS, PREMIERBET)
2pts ew COLIN MONTGOMERIE @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 28/1 WITH SPORTINGBET)
2pts ew BRADLEY DREDGE @ 28/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

CHRYSLER CLASSIC

3pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2.5pts ew TREVOR IMMELMAN @ 22/1 (BET DIRECT, PADDY POWER, SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew STEWART CINK @ 28/1 (BET365, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew SEAN O'HAIR @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew ROD PAMPLING @ 125/1 (PADDY POWER, SKYBET)

Good Luck!

2006 STATS: +94.75pts
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

Betting previews for Mallorca Classic and FUNAI Classic

2006-10-17T14:20:00.000-07:00

The penultimate week of the European Tour is upon us, with a nailbiting weekend in store for us Paul Casey backers for the Order of Merit. Padraig Harrington's win at the Dunhill Links has brought him right into the argument and the Irishman has altered his schedule to contest the Mallorca Open, while Casey rests up before next week's lucrative decider at Valderrama. The situation is this: Casey holds a 218,000 Euro lead over Harrington, 243,000 over David Howell who is not playing in Mallorca, and 445,000 over Robert Karlsson who is in this week's field. The Mallorca prize money on offer is this: 1st, 291,660, 2nd, 194,440 3rd,109,550. So Harrington must win to take the lead before Valderrama, but a top-3 finish will tighten things up considerably.

So what strategy to pursue? Having a saver seems a bit pointless, as even a Harrington win would not eliminate Howell from the equation, whereas a Karlsson win would bring him closer. There is also a similar precedent. Back in 2002, I vividly recall holding a big ante-post voucher on Retief Goosen before Harrington again won the Dunhill Links and rescheduled to play in extra events to try and close the gap. Now I'm a big Harrington fan generally, but as the Ryder Cup in Ireland suggested, he doesn't seem to carry the burden of expectation very well. That year, he played miserably in the final couple of events and Goosen won without producing anything of note himself. So under the circumstances, this week has to be about cheering against Pod.

The opposition is no pushover anyway. This event has been seriously dominated by the home contingent, with SERGIO GARCIA and Jose-Maria Olazabal winning the last two runnings. Sergio was second last year as well, and on his penultimate outing at the Ryder Cup went a long way to banishing the memories of a poor season. I've still got huge reservations about his putting though. Garcia putted great at the K Club, but then he always has in that team format, with help and support from a partner. Whether he can carry it over to strokeplay is another matter, but I'm still putting him in as a saver as he is certain to be there or thereabouts come Sunday and will probably trade a lot shorter. His compatriot and foursomes partner Olazabal is reluctantly left out of the staking plan though despite a similarly exemplary record on a course he designed. Jose-Maria's problem is that, Ryder Cup aside, he just hasn't produced much this summer to warrant such short odds.

One player well overdue some reward for a generally consistent year is SIMON KHAN. 15th at St Andrews last time was a perfectly fair effort, considering he's not really the links type, so it would seem his solid summer form is still there. Khan loves this course too, having been top-5 in 2003 and 2004, and being right in contention last year before a poor weekend dropped him down to 21st. 40/1 looks very reasonable each-way value.

At the same odds, I'm giving JOSE-MANUEL LARA one more chance to gain a long overdue first victory. Lara's form at Pula is beyond question - runner-up last year and top-11 the two previous years. A fine player from tee to green if a little suspect with the putter, Pula is perfect for him. Generally he is very consistent in this part of the world so represents decent each-way value at least.

Austrian MARKUS BRIER opened his winning account in his native land earlier in the year, and has a fair chance of following up on a course that suits. Brier came 4th here a couple of years back having contended throughout, and made the top-22 on both other visits. Recent top-10s in Germany and Holland confirm his wellbeing and suggest 80/1 is simply too big at this level.
Finally, in my endless search for a 100/1 winner, I'm going for SIMON WAKEFIELD to get some reward for a good season. The general problem has been putting in three good rounds only to blow it with one disaster, but I'm sure he's well aware of this and must fancy his chances on a course where he made the frame last year.

After yet another barren week in the States, where yet another three-figured price winner delivered, there's more pro-am hell in store at the FUNAI Classic. The market here is headed by Vijay Singh and recent winner Davis Love. Singh makes no appeal whatsoever after the year he's had, and a very disappointing finish at St Andrews. Love does have plenty of course form in the book as well as recent form, but even when he was undoubtably world-class he wasn't a player to take short odds about and is readily swerved here. Once again, the strategy here is to keep stakes to a minimum.

My idea of the best bet is England's JUSTIN ROSE. Justin is another player overdue a win, but this summer has at least been knocking on the door again. The fact that he came third in this event last year is a massive positive, as are the four consecutive top-15 finishes in September. My second selection is also a European, though CARL PETTERSSON has a couple of wins to his name over here. Having just missed out on the Ryder Cup, I'm backing the big Swede to bounce back swiftly this side of the Atlantic. This event is another putting contest, in other words perfect for Pettersson who has made the top-15 two years running in this event and generally has a fine record in Florida.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

MALLORCA CLASSIC

5pts win SERGIO GARCIA @ 6/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew SIMON KHAN @ 40/1 (STAN JAMES, LADBROKES, BET365)
1pt ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew MARKUS BRIER @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew SIMON WAKEFIELD @ 100/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

FUNAI CLASSIC

1pt ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew CARL PETTERSSON @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

Good Luck!

2006 STATS: +90pts
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

Betting Preview for Frys.com Championship

2006-10-10T16:49:00.000-07:00

A quite week in store, with no event on the European Tour. Paul Casey, Padraig Harrington, David Howell and Robert Karlsson will resume their enthralling battle for the Order of Merit next week, as the European season enters its final fortnight.

Instead we've got one event on the ever more random PGA Tour in the form of the Frys.com Championship at Summerlin, Nevada.
When Tiger is absent, as he is this week, finding a winner in the States is proving to be a nightmare. Even though last week's winner Davis Love was fairly near to the head of the market, there was nothing in his recent form profile to suggest a win was around the corner. The Summerlin event is played over five rounds, which theoretically should give the class a better chance to dominate, but against that we have seen 500/1 winners Andre Stolz, Wes Short and 125/1 Phil Tataurangi win this event in recent years. Its no surprise to see World No.2 Jim Furyk installed as a short-priced favourite. Jim has a tremendous record on this course, and after a fabulous summer its impossible to create a case against him, but odds of 9/2 are plenty short enough. A model of consistency he may be, but Furyk is no Tiger and has never been a particularly prolific winner.

So really the best advice is to keep stakes to a minimum, and just have a bit of fun. DAVID HOWELL makes a rare appearance this side of the Atlantic, and is a big price at 50/1 considering his status in Europe and the relatively weak nature of this field. The price is no doubt based on his recent injury worries and a poor week at St Andrews. However if the injuries don't hold him back, and you have to think he wouldn't be playing in a pro-am if they were, he would have a great chance here. This event is no more than a glorified putting contest, and there are few if any better putters in the world than the Swindon man.

I'm normally loathe to back David's namesake, CHARLES HOWELL III, as he is one of the most over-hyped and disappointing players on the scene. Since being billed as the next big thing in a country desperate to find some promising youngsters to back up Tiger and give them a chance in the Ryder Cup again, Charles has flattered to deceive more often than not. However, his natural talent is there for all to see and both recent and course form suggest he'll be on the premises this week. He played well when runner-up at the Lumber Classic recently, and has made the top-20 on four from six visits to Summerlin, including 5th and 6th placed finishes. What has been generally been a disappointing season has shown signs of turning around just lately too, with three top-20s from his last five starts.

NICK WATNEY has been on a great run recently, so I'm taking a chance he can keep it up. Watney hit the front a bit too early at the weekend for someone chasing their first PGA title, leading at halfway before a bad round 3. The way he stormed back in R4 bodes well though, and it was his 3rd top-10 in five weeks. Last year he managed an excellent 6th on his course debut, and has shown a liking for Nevada with two other top-10s in the state.

And if we're looking for another three figured priced winner, then BUBBA WATSON must be worth a look. The huge-hitting Watson is quite a prospect, and has impressed many in his rookie season. Following 6th place at the International, Watson's form has held up recently. 31st at the weekend and top-15 on his three previous starts were decent efforts. None of those courses favoured his flamboyant, if inexperienced game. There may well be some improvement to come this week, as his attacking style could overpower these easy resort courses.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

1pt ew CHARLES HOWELL III @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew DAVID HOWELL @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew NICK WATNEY @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BUBBA WATSON @ 100/1 (BETFRED, STAN JAMES)

Good Luck!

2006 STATS: +98pts
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

New e-mail address

2006-10-09T05:08:00.000-07:00

Apologies to anybody who's been trying to contact me via e-mail over the last couple of weeks. I've changed my address to golfpunter@tiscali.co.uk. Just a quick reminder that I can provide regular sports betting advice for just £20 per week.

Golf Betting Preview for W/E 8/10/06

2006-10-03T13:38:00.000-07:00

Only three weeks left of the 2005-6 European Tour, along with this year's Order of Merit title. My ante-post selection Paul Casey is sitting pretty with a 120,000 Euro lead and is best priced at 1/2, but I wouldn't take anything for granted just yet. He looked knackered at The Grove last week, not surprising after a very tough stint that included a Ryder Cup and 130 odds holes at Wentworth previously. Casey is as fit as anyone so perhaps he'll bounce back at the lucrative Dunhill Links on Thursday, but realistically he's never been a great links player and I'd be happy to see him make the top-15. His closest pursuer by far is David Howell, who worryingly has a fine record in this event with three top-6 finishes. There is obviously a big temptation to have a saver but its not really worth it as Howell could quite conceivably make up the deficit without winning over the last two big scoring opportunities here and at Valderrama in 16 days. And I don't fancy Howell this week. His best form here has been when the scoring has been easy and conditions friendly. Looking at the weekend weather forecast, I doubt that will be the case and the very best links players will probably come to the fore. Though he's a fine player, I've never considered Howell in that bracket. Third placed Robert Karlsson is still within striking range from 360,000 Euros behind, and if fourth-placed fellow Swede HENRIK STENSON continues his excellent recent form and wins here, he could still be a factor.

The most interesting stat pointing to Stenson is that he finished 6th here in 2003 when nowhere near the player he is now. Last year he followed up with third place so obviously is happy with the format. Looking back at Stenson's overall season, its easy to make the case that he's going to follow up on his recent victory in Germany soon. Over the winter and in the early months, he was arguably the best player in Europe, culminating in 4th place at Sawgrass. At that stage he was hyped into roughly 6th favourite for the Masters, so perhaps its no surprise that his form took a nosedive for a short period while he became accustomed to his new status and expectations. But in recent weeks he's looked right back to his best with that German win, and was one of the unsung heroes of the Ryder Cup with some sparkling form.

I could also see PADRAIG HARRINGTON getting into this argument yet, but he absolutely has to win this week. That is no forlorn hope by any means as there are few better links players in the world than Harrington, as the Irishman's record in this event testifies. In the five runnings of the Dunhill Links, Pod won in 2002 and has twice made the top-5 in other years. Since the end of May, he has been runner-up three times and made the top six on three other occasions, and had a solid enough score back in 17th behind Tiger last week. Harrington is overdue a win, and this event probably represents as good a chance has he gets all season.

LEE WESTWOOD has improved with age as a links exponent. When he was at his globetrotting winning machine best back in the late 90s, he never looked a natural for this type of golf and even confessed to hating St Andrews, where two of this week's four rounds are played. Yet strangely despite his star slipping from that high since the early days, Westwood has put together a solid set of Open finishes, won this in 2003 and finished 5th and 7th in the two years since. Joint top points scorer in the Ryder Cup, and generally in good form throughout the late summer, 33/1 looks a very big price for the Worksop wonder to end an uncharacteristic losing streak.

All of these European contenders though will have to get past the formidable presence of ERNIE ELS, the finest links player of them all. Runner-up twice in four completions here, following on from the best overall record of anyone in its forerunner of the Dunhill Cup not to mention an awesome record in the Open Championship and other links affairs around the world, its very hard to see Ernie not winning this one before his career is out. Distant fifth behind Tiger last week suggests he's finally coming back to his best after injury. 8/1 may be considerably shorter than anyone else in the field, but its still not bad considering the conditions. If the weather is even moderately bad, I don't reckon we need look beyond about 15 players here.

Completing a more expensive staking plan than usual, I'm having a rare bet on DARREN CLARKE. As a renowned poor finisher, I tend to avoid Darren, but I can't quibble with either his overall links record or his absolutely brilliant form at the Ryder Cup. After a shortened season for well documented personal reasons, there must be a good chance Clarke will finish the year strongly. Again if the weather turns bad, there are few players I'd rather be on.

In the States, attention moves to the Chrysler Classic of Greensboro. With the favourite at 22/1 on this increasingly random tour, I'm considerably less confident about the outcome. However, course form at Forest Oaks has proved a very good guide in the past, so the selections almost picked themselves from a limited shortlist. I strongly fancy STEVE STRICKER to land an overdue win here. Since returning from a long lay-off with injury and form problems, Stricker's form has been splendidly consistent. In 14 starts he's made the top-10 in half of those, including in each of his last four starts. He must go well back on the course where he made the top-3 back in 1996. Even though he was a class player back then, I wonder if he ever notched up such a consistent set of figures as recently.

Again defending champ KJ CHOI cannot be ignored on the basis of a tremendous track record. Of the Korean's last 16 rounds here, 11 have been in the 60s and he's never finished worse than 7th on his last four visits to Forest Oaks. 2006 form is solid enough too. KJ made back-to-back top-10s in August including the USPGA and has only missed three cuts since April - forgiveable as they were the first three Majors.

Despite some indifferent form recently, I've got to back TIM CLARK as 33/1 looks too big for the best player in the event yet to win in the States. As a multiple winner worldwide, Clark has nothing to prove. Lets not forget he's finished runner-up at the Masters this year, and not missed a single cut. The South African is usually seen to his best on courses that favour accuracy and good iron play. Forest Oaks is such a track, as last year's 6th place suggests. Finally JONATHAN BYRD has a decent each-way chance at 40/1. Byrd finished top-5 here in both 2001 and 2002 before injuries set his career back. There have been plenty of signs of life recently, particularly 5th in Canada on his penultimate start.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

DUNHILL LINKS CHAMPIONSHIP

8pts win ERNIE ELS @ 15/2 (UKBETTING, SPORTING ODDS, BETFRED, BETFAIR)
2.5pts ew HENRIK STENSON @ 18/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew DARREN CLARKE @ 33/1 (BETDIRECT, SKYBET)

CHRYSLER CLASSIC

3pts ew STEVE STRICKER @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew KJ CHOI @ 22/1 (BETDIRECT, VCBET, SPORTING ODDS)
1pt ew TIM CLARK @ 33/1 (BETDIRECT, BETFRED, CORAL)
1pt ew JONATHAN BYRD @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: +56pts
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

Ryder Cup Betting Preview

2006-09-18T16:20:00.000-07:00

Its been a long, hard year on the golf betting front, but at last there is a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. A couple of moderate wins over the past fortnight have reduced the annual deficit, but more importantly Paul Casey stands on the brink of landing a 33/1 touch in the Order of Merit after his victory in the World Matchplay. He's no certainty just yet as there's still three lucrative events to go in which a victory or pair of victories could bring several players into the argument beyond Casey and David Howell. But I'm confident enough to resist having any savers just yet. Howell was struggling with back and neck injuries last week and could have his work cut out earning the 300,000 Euros he needs to have any chance of overhauling Casey. As for the others, they can be guarded against if and when they get closer to the target.

And of course the outcome of this week's Ryder Cup will no doubt play a big part in the struggle to maintain an annual profit. I'm going in heavily here, and confidently expect a win for Europe. Prior to the last Ryder Cup when the outsiders Europe hammered the US, every Ryder Cup in living memory had been a toss of a coin affair at some stage on the final day. If the norm were to resume, prices of just under Evens on a European win would be no more than fair, but there are several reasons to think that their price should be significantly shorter. Firstly, it is legitimate to argue that the reasons those matches were so close was because the Europeans consistently performed beyond the expectations of the formbook. There is consensus that Europe have mastered the art of building the kind of camaraderie and team ethic more effectively than the Americans, who have often resembled a bunch of individuals. The statistic that identifies this better than any is a massive 23 point aggregate lead held by Europe in the pairs matches since 1983. While I'm sure the US will be determined to erase the memories of 2004 under what appears to be a shrewd captain in Tom Lehman, there is no reason to suggest Team Europe will be any less formidable.

The US have consistently started as favourites in Ryder Cups, as a consequence of the superior records of their players in strokeplay tournaments. For the first time this simply isn't the case.
Whilst the US do boast the world's best three players in Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Jim Furyk, their side also includes several distinctly moderate players. Brett Wetterich strikes me as the type of player who we won't hear about for another 5 years until he pops up at 500/1 in a PGA Tour event. At least he did prove his 'bottle' in winning twice earlier in the year, but I could think of at least 25 similar US players of the same standard who didn't qualify for the team. Zach Johnson and Vaughan Taylor are decent prospects, but completely unproven and inexperienced outside the US. The same comments apply to JJ Henry, though I'd rate him below that promising pair. Chad Campbell back to his best would be expected to play a leading role, but has shown no hint of form for months. Even pivotal players like Scott Verplank, David Toms and Chris Dimarco aren't in form. Woods seems certain to resume his successful Presidents Cup partnership with Furyk in a bid to improve on a dire record in this event, but even here this strategy has the danger of putting all their eggs in one basket.

In stark contrast Europe have few, if any, serious worries about form. Paul McGinley and Darren Clarke probably have the most to prove, but are still strongly fancied to produce in Ireland. When this venue was used for the European Open in July, wind and rain made scoring very tough and the course penal for anyone straying off line. Bad weather is always expected to suit the Europeans anyway, but if the forecast is as expected, this really isn't the ideal scenario for inexperienced Americans used to target golf who've rarely played outside their own country. Even more so if they're struggling for form. Chad Campbell is the only player bar Woods on the US side who excels in tough conditions, but he comes here in the worst form of anyone.

So here's the betting strategy. I suggest backing Europe to win the match at a shade of odds-on, and on the handicap giving away 1.5 shots, alongside a buy of their points supremacy at 0.9 on the spreads. If as expected the Europeans win comfortably that should yield a decent profit. But its also well worth laying whichever side when they have built a lead and are strongly odds-on with a view to trading out for a profit when the situation reverses. Prior to the 2004 thrashing of Oakland Hills, that strategy would have yielded a healthy profit in every Ryder Cup going back to 1983.

The top team scorer markets normally offer a bit of value. Only a handful of players can be expected to play in all 5 potential matches, and its safe to discount all of those who are unlikely to get more than 3 matches as the winner can be expected to accumulate at least 3.5 points. In previous matches, when Europe had an easily defined core of superstars who could be expected to dominate the team selections in fourballs and foursomes. Nowadays though, the side is so strong in depth that its not that easy to see who to leave out. There are some obvious pairings we can probably identify early. SERGIO GARCIA has formed brilliant partnerships in the past with Lee Westwood in fourballs and Luke Donald in foursomes. Donald in turn has partnered Casey to a World Cup triumph, so perhaps they might team up in fourballs. I have a suspicion that Colin Montgomerie will again be paired with Padraig Harrington. Garcia, Donald and Harrington look set to play all five, with the Spaniard again looking the best bet at 6/1. Sergio has a Ryder Cup record to die for, winning 10 points from three appearances and only losing one from ten pairs matches. He has the perfect matchplay temperament and seems to come alive in this team format, and if conditions are as bad as expected his superb long game should prosper.

With the US team. it does look a little easier to identify a core. I would imagine Tom Lehman is planning to use Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk, Phil Mickelson, Chris Dimarco and STEWART CINK in all five sets of matches. The reasons I'm going with Cink are firstly the double-figure price which considerably beats the price of the other 4, and secondly form. Whereas team-mates Campbell, Johnson, Wetterich, Dimarco, Toms and Verplank have only five top-10 finishes since May between the six of them, Cink comes here on the back of four top-5 finishes in his last eight starts. Another advantage he has over so many of his rivals is a proven ability to play in fairly bad weather. If the Woods/Furyk partnership were only to win 2 points out of a potential 4, 12/1 on an in-form, probable ever-present like Cink would look massive each-way value.

Good Luck!

RYDER CUP

20pts win EUROPE @ 9/10 (HILLS. 1.97 ON BETFAIR)
8pts EUROPE (-1.5pts) @ 11/8 (BETFAIR)
BUY EUROPE/USA POINTS SUPREMACY 10pts @ 0.9 (SPREADEX)

TOP EUROPEAN SCORER

5pts SERGIO GARCIA @ 6/1 (BETFAIR, BLUESQ, VICTOR CHANDLER, SPORTING ODDS)

TOP US SCORER

3pts ew STEWART CINK @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-72.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

Betting previews for HSBC World Matchplay/84 Lumber Classic/Madrid Open

2006-09-12T15:14:00.000-07:00

As anticipation builds just a week away from the Ryder Cup, I'm pleasantly surprised to see three televised high quality golf tournaments starting on Thursday. Normally we might have expected to see next week's contestants taking a week off to fine tune their games, but thankfully most have chosen to do so on the course. The highlight of the week is undoubtably the HSBC World Matchplay from Wentworth, where Tiger Woods bids for a seventh consecutive tournament victory, while Ernie Els aims for his seventh win in that particular event.

Those two golfing gods can't both reach the final as the draw has come out extremely lop-sided. As well as Tiger and Ernie, the bottom half includes the new world no.2 and weekend winner Jim Furyk, home favourite Luke Donald, course specialist Angel Cabrera and world-class Tim Clark. Clearly reaching the final from this half will be no cakewalk for Woods as any of those six are realistic finalists. Even the greatest can't win every week, and this draw represents a great chance to lay Tiger at a very skinny 6/4. I find it hard to envisage how a running accumulator on each match would yield less than that price, but also think he will enjoy no significant advantage on the claustrophobic West Course.

Clearly the best betting strategy here is to focus on the immeasurably easier top-half of the draw. The top players here are Retief Goosen and ADAM SCOTT. Goose has a very indifferent record at Wentworth in both strokeplay and matchplay so, especially as recent form has been below par, is readily opposed. His first-round opponent Paul Casey will be a tough enough nut to crack before he reaches the big guns. Alternatively, Scott comes here in peak form, and has a far more straightforward first-round opponent in Mike Weir. In the States, Scott to beat Weir would be far from obvious, but the Canadian's record in this event is poor. Coming straight off a win in Singapore, he looks very much the one to beat in this half of the draw.

Without doubt, the weakest quarter is the top one. David Howell is the shortest price but he too remains one very much to oppose in my book. Despite nearly winning in Germany a fortnight ago, his driving was all over the place again. That will be severely penalised here, especially against first-round opponent Colin Montgomerie who has always claimed to feel more confident at Wentworth than any other venue. But the best value lies in backing both of their potential second round opponents. The winner will play either defending champ MICHAEL CAMPBELL or SIMON KHAN. Cambo, a course specialist, starts heavy favourite for that match and is expected to win before putting up a stout defence, but Khan should also be backed at simply the wrong each-way odds. Priced at 125/1 to win the event, Khan's place odds are 62.5/1, when the accumulative odds on winning the necessary three matches is no more than 30/1. Hopefully by backing those three in the top-half, a situation will arise where we are either guaranteed a finalist, or finding the required saver is easy.

The Madrid Open looks the biggest conundrum of the week as far as betting is concerned. The market is headed by Ryder Cuppers Padraig Harrington, Darren Clarke and Jose-Maria Olazabal. It would take a brave man to be expecting 100% concentration on the task in hand from any of them, and the two Irishmen are hardly prolific anyway. I could see an argument for backing a determined Thomas Bjorn, anxious to make a fool out of Ian Woosnam after being left out of the Ryder Cup side. But, for me, his ridiculous outburst against the captain just confirmed that his temperament leaves a lot to be desired, and makes him a nightmare for punters.

With doubts surrounding the top-4, there might be a smidgeon of value around on some of the players who didn't miss Ryder Cup qualification by a mile. The three I like are IAN POULTER, NICLAS FASTH and ANTONY WALL. Poulter isn't huge at 20/1, but he is long overdue a win and has been playing consistently well for months. His attacking game is expected to suit the course perfectly.

Fasth is the best value for me. He is quite a regular winner considering his moderate place in the world rankings, especially in this part of the world. Niclas' last two starts in Spain have yielded a win in the national Open and seventh place in the prestigious Volvo Masters. As for Wall, he's been playing consistently well without winning all summer. Sooner or later things are going to drop his way as long as he continues the good form, and a second win is surely around the corner.

Its a good job Tiger has opted for Wentworth rather than the 84 Lumber Classic of Pennsylvania because he would have probably ended it as a betting spectacle very quickly. There is a marked advantage to the longer hitters, who can really open their shoulders on this course. Last year's winner Jason Gore fitted the profile perfectly with his huge-hitting, attacking game. In 2004, VIJAY SINGH won comfortably and must come right into calculations again with Ryder Cuppers David Toms and Chris Dimarco the only players from the world's top-30 in opposition. In the last event where big-hitters had an advantage, the Deutsche Bank a fortnight ago, Singh lost nothing in defeat to the unbeatable Woods. Last week's effort was only moderate, but I never thought he was suited by Hamilton. At the same price with less opposition and much more suitable conditions he must be included in the staking plan.

My other four selections all fit the profile of a Lumber winner. RORY SABBATINI, RYAN MOORE, CAMILIO VILLEGAS and JB HOLMES can all hit the ball a country mile when they want to. Sabbatini's early-season form took a bit of a dive but 5th place at the weekend confirms he's back in form and should be raring to go on a course where he's made the top-10 previously. Villegas was tied with Sabbatini at Hamilton, the latest top effort in a fine first season on tour. I'm sticking with the Colombian until he delivers, as I think he's a good a prospect as there is on tour.

Moore is another top prospect enjoying a fine first year. Prior to missing the cut in Canada, he had notched two consecutive top-12 finishes, most notably after a slow start at the USPGA. Moore is another one worth persisting with at attractive odds on suitable golf courses until he wins. Finally, Holmes is the biggest price of the lot despite already winning on Tour in spectacular style. Since that breakthrough Scottsdale win results have been mixed, but Holmes hasn't disgraced himself and has the length to turn this course into a pitch and putt affair.

Good Luck!

HSBC WORLD MATCHPLAY

LAY TIGER WOODS 10pts @ 2.6 (BETFAIR)
4pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 12/1 (BET365, TOTE, SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 22/1 (SPORTING ODDS, 25/1 EXPEKT)
0.5pts ew SIMON KHAN @ 125/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

MADRID OPEN

2pts ew IAN POULTER @ 20/1 (LADBROKES, STAN JAMES)
2pts ew NICLAS FASTH @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew ANTONY WALL @ 40/1 (BLUESQ, SKYBET)

84 LUMBER CLASSIC OF PENNSYLLVANIA

5pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 7/1 (LADBROKES, BETFAIR)
1pt ew RORY SABBATINI @ 40/1 (BLUESQ, LADBROKES, CORALS, HILLS)
1pt ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 50/1 (BETFRED, LADBROKES, CORALS, HILLS)
1pt ew RYAN MOORE @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 66/1 CORALS)
0.5pts ew JB HOLMES @ 100/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-104.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

European Masters/Canadian Open Betting Previews

2006-09-06T04:01:00.000-07:00

A slightly smaller package of outright golf bets this week. . First to Crans-Sur-Sierre in Switzerland for the European Masters. A quality field used to turn up for this one, but now we should be thankful that SERGIO GARCIA has a house nearby because he is the only player from the world's top-50 in attendance.

Played in rarefied air 5000ft above sea level, the ball travels further than usual on an already short course. The course's main defences are the rough, and the wierd, saucer-shaped greens. The result is a big advantage to the best players who hit it long and straight, and who possess good short games to get near the tricky pin positions. In all of these respects, defending champion Garcia is in a class of his own here. Before winning last year, he blew a great winning chance behind Luke Donald in 2004. There is nobody in Donald's class in opposition this week. The closest challengers are Miguel-Angel Jiminez and Simon Dyson. Jiminez at his best would be a serious contender, but has been out of form for months. Dyson holds the best recent form, but as a consequence his price is plenty short enough.

The PGA Tour moves on to Canada for their national Open. The only time in recent years the event was held at the old-fashioned Hamilton course, it was won by the unfathomable Bob Tway at what seems like a very short 80/1. A further look at the top-10 confirms that accuracy is very much the order of the day on a tough course. With Tiger giving the rest a chance by having a week off, many will look to Vijay Singh after his resurgent showing at the Deutsche Bank. I'm not falling for that old chestnut though - he'll probably win now but I've had enough of losing money on Vijay in the last year. It would come as no surprise to me at all if he slipped back into the poor form of the previous month. Instead, I've got a team of six to go into battle with.

I've said several times recently that JIM FURYK is now the closest challenger to Woods and Mickelson. On a course like this that rewards accuracy, I'd go further and suggest he's second only to Woods. The only problem is his career-long tendency to finish 2nd or 3rd. I don't think there's anything wrong with his temperament, so put it down to the fact that ultra-consistent players will obviously miss out more often than they win. He must enter the staking plan here at 8/1.

You won't go far wrong backing home players in their national Opens, and MIKE WEIR has a blindingly obvious chance here. He lost nothing in defeat at the USPGA, and deserves a win after a very consistent season. Top-10 here 2 years ago and desperate to please his public, I can't see the accurate left-hander being far away on a course that suits.

I'm also giving one more chance to ZACH JOHNSON, who must surely deliver soon. Again, his accurate game should be rewarded on this golf course, and 50/1 looks a very fair each-way punt. Johnson will win plenty during his career, and is overdue. And WOODY AUSTIN could go close here at a nice 80/1. Austin, a former rookie of the year and twice a PGA Tour winner, has been playing his best golf for a while, racking up excellent tee-to-green statistics and a series of high finishes. He's prospered well on narrow tracks with small greens in the past, so these odds must be worth a go.

Completing the staking plan, I have two Aussies at three figure odds. Both relish tough, old-fashioned golf courses and the test they provide. The first, STEPHEN LEANEY, is a multiple winner around the world and long overdue his first PGA Tour win. The 2003 US Open runner-up has been in fine fettle lately, making his last five cuts with two top-10s and a top-20. 100/1 looks big. And at a massive 250/1, lets give another chance to MATTHEW GOGGIN. Since a highly creditable runner-up placing at the Western Open in July, Goggin has missed all his cuts and the price is back to where it was before he showed such promise. That doesn't surprise me, as he's never been consistent, but time after time he has shown his best on the toughest courses.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

EUROPEAN MASTERS

8pts win SERGIO GARCIA @ 5/1 (PREMIERBET, BETFRED, PADDY POWER)

CANADIAN OPEN

5pts win JIM FURYK @ 8/1 (LADBROKES, PREMIERBET, TOTE)
2pts ew MIKE WEIR @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 22/1 WITH VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 50/1 (BLUESQ, LADBROKES)
1pt ew WOODY AUSTIN @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew STEPHEN LEANEY @ 100/1 (BLUESQ, HILLS)
0.5pts ew MATTHEW GOGGIN @ 250/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-125.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

BMW and Deutsche Bank golf betting previews

2006-08-29T14:46:00.000-07:00

And so it continues. Tiger Woods may have won his fourth event in a row at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational at the weekend, but at least some weekend blips kept the event interesting as a spectacle and punting medium. This week he attempts No.5 and faces a field at the Deutsche Bank Championship significantly weaker than those he's beaten in the last fortnight. One might think 13/8 is a very reasonable proposition under the circumstances, but Firestone showed again that you usually get bigger in-running - though his odds only reached 7/2. This event starts a day later than usual on Friday, so lets first deal with the BMW International Open which starts in Europe on Thursday.

The BMW could be a pivotal event in the outcome of this year's Order of Merit. Paul Casey did his chances no harm at all with a lucrative high finish at Firestone, but David Howell still leads the way by just under 300,000 Euros. That's not as big a margin as it first appears, with several big-money events to come. In fact as well as Howell, Casey and Robert Karlsson, PADRAIG HARRINGTON, Henrik Stenson, Ernie Els and Colin Montgomerie could still come into this with a late-season flourish. Howell defends the title in Munich this week and would have a fine chance if back to his best, but his form has completely disappeared in recent weeks. I think he'll probably still need to earn at least another 400,000 euros, not easy when your best finish in seven starts is 35th place.

Casey must be full of confidence after a good weekend exchanging blows with the best, and has an outstanding chance of scoring in Germany. This wide-open course suits his massive hitting perfectly, as four consecutive top-7 finishes from 2001 - 2004 prove beyond doubt. Ignore last year's missed cut as his game was in crisis at the time. If we leave aside the lingering doubts over his ability to finish tournaments off, its very hard to see Paul out of the places here.

Harrington has endured a frustrating season, but again has the perfect conditions to make his mark now. Since a purple patch in the early summer when finishing in the top-6 four out of five weeks on both sides of the Atlantic,including the US Open, there's no doubt he has been disappointing. Pod is another who I think is seen to his best when there are few penalties off the tee. He has twice finished runner-up in this event, and has six top-20s from seven visits. Two solid rounds at the weekend at Firestone might be suitable preparation for a return to form back on the European Tour. Certainly his attractive odds justify a bet.

Provided he has no ill-effects from a virus that caused him to miss the final day at Firestone, I'm expecting another very big run from LEE WESTWOOD as he stakes his claim for a Ryder Cup place. A former winner at this Munich venue, Westwood has looked in very good nick recently - 4th at the K Club was followed by 2nd at the Deutsche Bank, and he even went well for a long way in the USPGA at Medinah. Surely the time has come for this serial winner to end a barren three year stretch.

There must also be a chance that many of the big guns will be winding down after a big fortnight in the States, leaving the way open for somebody like RAPHAEL JACQUELIN who has the advantage of coming into this fresh. There's nothing wrong with the Frenchman's recent figures of two top-10s from his last three starts, and he has shown plenty of liking for the course, finishing 3rd, 22nd and 9th on his last three visits. The only lingering question is Jacquelin's suspect temperament under pressure, but hopefully that long-awaited first win in 2005 will have calmed his nerves a bit.

Onto the Deutsche Bank Championship then, and Woods' bid for a five-timer. In 2003 and 2004, the first two runnings of the event, all evidence pointed to a big advantage to the big-hitters. The first two winners were ADAM SCOTT and Vijay Singh, and Scott finished runner-up on the second occasion. Tiger Woods, in nowhere near the imperious form of the past month, finished top-10 on both occasions. But last year a spanner was thrown in the works, with medium-hitting Olin Browne landing a huge-priced touch on behalf of the grateful bookies and Tiger out with the washing in 40th place. In his current mood, its hard to see any repeat of that and Singh and Scott once again provide the principal opposition. It will take a long time for me to completely write off Vijay as past his best, but there can be no doubting a serious decline in standards recently. Having missed out on the previous four though, I'm hardly likely to advise Woods now at these odds, and once again suggest betting in the "Without Woods" market whilst trading his price in-running.

Scott has looked an imminent winner lately and is strongly fancied to make the frame at least. Perhaps the best way to back him is in a widely available match bet against Singh, but I also think 13/2 is quite reasonable to beat everyone bar Woods. Following on from a fast finishing 3rd at the PGA, Scott went well for most of the week at Firestone - a course he's always struggled on. Back on one of his favourite tracks, I expect he'll take a lot of beating.

As I've said several times recently, CAMILIO VILLEGAS is very much one to keep an eye on, and this week's tough test could well bring the best out in him. Don't worry about building up losses on this guy, as he will reap rewards for us in the long-term. I see him as a challenger for Majors in just two years from now, and in the meantime expect him to rack up lots of high finishes on the suitable US courses. Having finished second here last year, we know JASON BOHN likes the track. And prior to his last two missed cuts, one on a respectable score the other in the USPGA, he was putting together a very consistent set of figures. At 50/1 he looks worth a small interest here without the favourite.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

BMW INTERNATIONAL

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 33/1 (HILLS, CORAL)
1pt ew RAPHAEL JACQUELIN @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

DEUTSCHE BANK CHAMPIONSHIP

BETTING WITHOUT TIGER WOODS

5pts win ADAM SCOTT @ 13/2 (STAN JAMES, BET365, PADDY POWER)
1.5pts ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 50/1 (STAN JAMES, BET365, 66/1 WITH EXPEKT)
1pt ew JASON BOHN @ 50/1 (STAN JAMES, BET365)

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

2006 STATS: (-111.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

WGC Bridgestone Invitational Betting Preview

2006-08-22T14:37:00.000-07:00

Before I get to the golf advice, I must give a quick mention to the bookmakers Paddy Power, who proved once again they truly are the best in the business as far as punters are concerned with their response to Sunday's cricketing fiasco. They decided to both pay out on an England win, and void all losing bets on Pakistan and the draw - a decision notably not repeated by most of their rivals. Without going into this too much, this was in my view the only reasonable approach to a terrible situation for gamblers on all sides. I'm quite sure that, had a flood of money come for England at massive odds during the tea interval there would have been a stewards enquiry into betting patterns and many would have hid behind the dubious palpable error rule. Certainly I would have expected that from William Hill, who used that excuse only days earlier to void snooker bets from their live in-running market because they had forgotten to update them.

Following another facile Major win at Medinah, his 12th in an unbelievable 9 years as a professional, Tiger Woods bids for his fourth consecutive tournament win at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone Country Club against a limited field, but one that includes all of the world's leading players. There will no doubt be a school of thought that Woods may suffer a reaction to winning and take this week less seriously, but don't bet on it. Tiger takes these lucrative WGC events as seriously as anyone, and Firestone suits him as well as pretty much any course in the States. His course record is predictably awesome. In 8 visits, he's won 4 and never finished worse than 5th. So with a 50% strike record and perfect recent form, 13/8 doesn't seem like such a bad price. In fact I expect him to win this easily, by several shots. However rather than taking these short odds now, I'll wait and see if he drifts at all in-running. At that price, it won't take very much.

Woods looks almost back to his absolute best, as he displayed when winning four consecutive Majors in 2000/2001. As usual all the critics were out in force after Medinah, blaming the opposition for nor giving Tiger a test on the final day. However while Luke Donald will undoubtably be very disappointed with his final round efforts in his first serious chance of winning a Major, blaming the opposition does Woods no justice. The reality is that he came within one shot of his own Major scoring record, just weeks after again threatening the same record in another uncontested Major victory. The truth is that on his day, he's simply too good for anyone alive and quite possibly getting better. Improvement would come as no surprise as the overwhelming majority of golfers don't peak until their thirties.

For once I called it right at the USPGA, at least in terms of which market to play. Though Luke Donald and Adam Scott ultimately fell short of winning the "Without Tiger" market and would have yielded slightly higher place returns in the main market, the last day would have been extremely dull without having those bets to cheer on. Once again, this is where our attention should lie. This event isn't as competitive as many, with several players never taking well to Firestone. Phil Mickelson used to do particularly well here until the course was toughened up. In any case, he looked some way below his best last week. Ernie Els has only two top-10s in his last eight visits, Retief Goosen one from four. Vijay Singh is relatively suited by Firestone's demands, but comes into this on the back of second consecutive missed cut in the Majors. Even Adam Scott, who looked a winner in waiting at Medinah, can't be recommended after three no-shows on the course.

With so many players unfancied, a process of elimination implies JIM FURYK is worth including at 12/1. Medinah was a disappointment for Furyk, but he wasn't too far away for a long time before fading on Sunday. I'm happy to ignore that as his previous efforts had been right out of the top drawer. The most consistent player of 2006, now ranked No.3 in the world, has always enjoyed the test of Firestone. Among four top-10s from seven visits, the lasting memory of Furyk on this course was losing a multi-hole play-off to an in-form Tiger. Something similar would probably be required to win this week, but less so to win the market without the favourite.

Its also worth taking a chance that LUKE DONALD will be unaffected by the disappointments of Sunday night. Even when it was all going wrong, there was little sign of any weaknesses in that fantastic long game, rather it was his short game that went to pieces. No less of a judge than Bernhard Langer reckons Luke is the best iron player in the world, which is a the essential requirement for Firestone. As he has been 16th and 6th on his previous visits, I'll be surprised if he's not there or thereabouts once again.

It may be a good time to look to the next generation of stars. Whether either of them will ever reach a level that will threaten Tiger's dominance is a matter for speculation, but there can be little doubt that TREVOR IMMELMAN and HENRIK STENSON show every sign of joining the elite ranks pretty soon. In Immelman's case, the secret is already out of the bag after his impressive win in the Western Open - just the latest in a series of high class performances against the best in the States. Had last week not been his first event after a break for the birth of his first child, Immelman would have come in for very careful consideration at Medinah. As it was, four solid rounds without ever getting into contention could prove the perfect warm-up. Nobody would doubt that the South African prospect has improved considerably recently, so 9th at Firestone in 2003 when still very novicey bodes well.

Stenson looks to have found his form again after a tricky summer, and could be set for a late charge at the Order of Merit. When the Swede finished 3rd at Sawgrass, after an extremely impressive and consistent run in Europe, everyone was tipping him for glory and his odds for the Masters were crazy at less than 40/1. But last week's efforts suggest he's overcome any reaction to that. Understandably, Stenson hit a poor round on Saturday when leading the event in the final two-ball, but otherwise did very little wrong in landing his best Major finish to date. As with Immelman, the clinching point is some positive previous form on the course. Opening with a 66, Stenson looked capable of springing a shock for a long way here last year, and can reasonably be expected to go well again.

Good Luck!

BETTING WITHOUT TIGER WOODS

STAKING PLAN

3pts ew JIM FURYK @ 12/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER, TOTE)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 16/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER, BETFRED)
2pts ew TREVOR IMMELMAN @ 33/1 (BETFRED, PADDY POWER, SKYBET, STAN JAMES)
1pt ew HENRIK STENSON @ 50/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER, STAN JAMES)

2006 STATS: (-107.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

USPGA Championship Betting Preview

2006-08-15T08:03:00.000-07:00

The final Major of the year, the USPGA Championship, starts on Thursday from Medinah CC, Illinois. Always the least fashionable of the Majors, this one has tended to yield more shock winners than the other two - Jeff Sluman, John Daly, Rich Beem and Shaun Micheel spring to mind. This year in my view it represents the best chance yet for a trio of world-class golfers still aiming for their first Major.

Not so long ago, it was widely understood that there was a 'Big 5', that represented an elite band operating in a slightly higher stratosphere. Not any more. Since April 2005 when this sentiment was most regularly used, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson have won five of the seven Majors contested to very much set up their own private dual. Moreover, the other three members of the five, Ernie Els, Vijay Singh and Retief Goosen have all struggled with form and fitness and Jim Furyk, now ranked No.4, probably represents the greatest immediate threat to the front two.

First a word about Tiger and Mickelson. When the PGA was last held here in 1999, Woods landed his second Major while Mickelson never got going. Mickelson hasn't really shown for a few months that he's quite in the form when winning this event last year, and is readily opposed but Tiger's chances are the subject of much debate. The great man is undoubtably in form, as facile victories in the Open Championship and at Warwick Hills on his last two outings testify. Having won fairly easily in 1999 on this course - Sergio Garcia's memorable late challenge withstanding - one might assume he is a shoe-in here again. But equally, for both of those recent wins Woods was able to avoid taking driver - his problem club - for most of the week. Medinah has been lengthened to new extremes so he has no such option here. And in the intervening 7 years, technology has come along that has narrowed the advantage he has on such courses. The truth is I'm at a loss as far as predicting Tiger this week, he could yet again destroy the event as a gambling spectacle as at Hoylake but still looks atrocious value at 9/4. The best strategy is to try and bet in markets that don't include him.

Furyk is the danger, as he is enjoying his best season to date. Top-10 here in 1999, Jim has finished no worse than 4th in his last four outings, including two Majors. Only Tiger bettered him at Warwick Hills last time, but I'm not greatly enamoured by the outright price. While first impressions of the length of the course suggest short-hitters like Furyk may be disadvantaged a detailed look at the 1999 result suggests otherwise. Though the front pair, Woods and Garcia, are among the longest hitters, extremely short-hitter Mike Weir led going into final round while Furyk, Jay Haas and Nick Price also made the top-10 so it seems greens in regulation - the pivotal stat for Majors - is the one to look at.

So my three for the USPGA are ADAM SCOTT, LUKE DONALD and TIM CLARK. All three definitely possess the ability to win a Major, but only Clark has a good record in recent ones. Scott in particular has underperformed in Majors. My view is the reason for that is an inexperienced short game that, at Augusta or on an Open course, is cruelly exposed. Similar comments apply to Donald, but Medinah should be more conventional than most. Scott's efforts when 8th at Hoylake suggests he's getting the hang of Majors, and I'm pleased to see he is coming in fresh and presumably well prepared. It seems the best attribute to own is the ability to consistently drive it long and straight. There are few better than Scott in this regard.

Like Furyk, the relatively short-hitting Donald could be disadvantaged here, but the evidence suggests otherwise. His world-class long-iron play more than compensates for a lack of length from the tee and as he monotonously hits fairways, bogey can be taken out of the equation on most holes on this tough course. In any case, some of Donald's best efforts have come on similarly long courses. As a PGA Tour rookie, arguably his best effort was top-15 at the monster Bethpage Black in the US Open back in 2002.

In terms of length, Clark is the middle of my three selections. The South African has shown several times in recent Majors just how suited he is to tough golf courses. Runner-up in this year's Masters, 3rd in the 2005 US Open and 3rd in the 2004 PGA, Clark looks a likely contender in all the US Majors these days. His ultra-accurate game looks perfect for Medinah.
The question is which market to play? 33/1, 40/1 and 80/1 respectively are available for my three selections, but I'd rather take Tiger Woods out of the equation. Paddy Power's 'without-Tiger' market offers 25/1 twice and 66/1 for the same players so I suggest thats the best route. If you're more inclined to take the outright market, there are some good offers around. Paddy Power offer a refund of losing win stakes should a European win, Tote do the same if Mickelson wins and Sean Graham offer a free £25 Ryder Cup bet if you stake £25 on the USPGA.

Others expected to go well this week are GEOFF OGILVY, MIKE WEIR and AARON OBERHOLSER. Ogilvy also has the perfect game for this set-up. If it wasn't for the fact he's already won a Major this year I'd be backing him for sure. However, the odds are now far closer to the correct mark and lets face it, unless you're name is Tiger you don't win two Majors in the same season. Weir emerged in the big-time when the event was last played at Medinah. As a rank outsider, he led going into the final day only to collapse with 80. He's not looked far off his Masters-winning best this year, so is also worth keeping an eye on, especially in the speciality markets. As for Oberholser, a reduced schedule this year has reaped dividends. He's been on the fringes in both previous US Majors and Sawgrass since winning at Pebble Beach so it stands to reason he'll go well again. In particular, he looks good value at 50/1 in the top-US without Tiger market.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

BETTING WITHOUT TIGER WOODS

3pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 25/1 (PADDY POWER)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 25/1 (PADDY POWER)
1.5pts ew TIM CLARK @ 66/1(PADDY POWER)

TOP US WITHOUT TIGER WOODS

1pt ew AARON OBERHOLSER (PADDY POWER)

MATCH BETS, 3-BALLS AND SPREADS

SUPPORT JIM FURYK
SUPPORT GEOFF OGILVY
SUPPORT MIKE WEIR
SUPPORT AARON OBERHOLSER
OPPOSE PHIL MICKELSON

2006 STATS: (-128.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

Northern Ireland Open Snooker Preview

2006-08-10T14:41:00.000-07:00

Halleluhah! After the depressing summer months, the snooker season is once again upon us with the Northern Ireland Classic starting tomorrow. Another pleasant surprise in the fact that this is now a ranking event with a full-sized field. Last year's event, won by Matthew Stevens, was a limited field invitational event characterised by the blatant lack of preparation and form by the top stars. I suspect the big names may once again be underprepared which could yield massive betting value.

Of course we're guessing about form at this early stage, but as in every event last year we've got a rather lop-sided draw to capitalise upon. Snooker is so wide open nowadays that the rankings increasingly mean very little. For instance, the second quarter contains three serious World Championship contenders in Ronnie O'Sullivan, Mark Williams and Matthew Stevens along with rising stars Ryan Day, Mark Allen and Barry Hawkins. I could envisage backing any of them at some stage in the year.

In contrast the top quarter looks very weak. Graeme Dott may be world champion but he remains a very rare winner and no more than a solid top-16 player. It will be interesting to see how the gutsy Scot copes with the added pressure and expectation this year. The man he beat at Sheffield, Peter Ebdon, is also in this part of the draw but rarely has started the season strongly. Like so many top-stars, he tends to only peak from December onwards as the bigger prizes await. Sheffield semi-finalist Marco Fu would be interesting if he could repeat that week's heroics, but again has rarely shown it in these type of events. The one who really stands out for me in this section is MARK SELBY who could just be ahead of the bookies. Selby is a classic example of the bias in the rankings towards the top-32. He's been a serious prospect for years, and even reached a ranking final back in 2003. But because he struggled in qualifiers, he's only just broken into the top-32 which gives him a real chance of stamping his mark on a tournament. He made it due to a fantastic win at Sheffield over last year's leading player, John Higgins. Selby was superb in that game, and lost nothing in his subsequent defeat to an in-form Williams. There are no such threats from this draw, and he has a straightforward opener against Tony Drago to build form and confidence. In the same section, whoever wins the first-round match between Joe Swail and Gerard Greene will be worth a serious look on home territory. But as that match is far from straightforward to predict, best to wait until we know who progresses.

As I said, the second quarter is a minefield, and the best strategy is to sit back and watch carnage ensue knowing only one player can reach the semis. It is worth adding though, that you'd have to be enjoying Class A drugs to consider a bet on Ronnie O'Sullivan. His will to win is always dubious, but I'll be surprised if he's bothered with a low-grade event like this. The third quarter looks between Higgins, Ding Junhui and Ken Doherty if the formbook is to be believed, but until we've seen them play I'm reserving judgement.

So the other value bet is in the final quarter. The player I have the highest hopes for this season is Aussie prodigy NEIL ROBERTSON. Since the slow demise of Stephen Hendry began, snooker has lacked a consistent, dominating player. However the standard is certainly average enough for someone to emerge and for me the most likely candidates are Robbo and Ding Junhui. I've already backed Robertson for next year's World Championship at 40/1, and 25/1 looks a nice price here bearing in mind a likely easy first round win. The ante-post bet is outstanding value in my view and very strongly recommended.

Should he make it that far, Robertson's last eight opponent will probably be one of Stephen Hendry, Stephen Lee, STUART BINGHAM or Ian McCulloch. The first two of those are well worth opposing in an event like this, and Bingham should beat David Roe easily enough in the first round. Last year, the Essex player started the year on fire and this player of considerable potential is worth a bet to do so again.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

3pts ew MARK SELBY @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 25/1 (STAN JAMES)
1.5pts ew STUART BINGHAM @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

ANTE-POST

10pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 40/1 (LADBROKES)

Betting previews for KLM Dutch Open and The International

2006-08-09T09:34:00.000-07:00

On the back of a really bad run of golf results, I couldn't be less enthusiastic about the week's events. In Europe, we have the Dutch Open played on a course that hasn't been used since 1990, while the US tournament is that annual punting minefield known as The International. The latter has attracted a world-class field, and rather than the usual strokeplay format is played under a stableford scoring system which can produce dramatic swings on the leaderboard, and has been known to produce completely unfathomable winners.

Aside Tiger Woods giving the false impression that golf betting is easy and dull, the last few weeks have produced two such unfathomable winners in Corey Pavin and Mark Warren. The Dutch Open has all the hallmarks of another shock result, if the favourite gets beaten. The course is short, and apparently not too dissimilar to the linksy course this event is usually played on at Hilversum. COLIN MONTGOMERIE is by far and away the class act in this field and 9/1 is seriously tempting. He's only got to stay broadly in the thick of it for those odds to shorten. Prior to missing the cut at the Open, he'd had seven solid weeks of form including that near-miss at Winged Foot. This grade is well below the level he usually competes on, and we've seen in the Far East in recent years that Monty still enjoys beating lesser players for less prestigious events. He also wouldn't be here, just a week before the USPGA, if he wasn't serious about winning.

Next best in the betting are Ryder Cup hopefuls Paul McGinley and Paul Broadhurst, but that sort of added pressure rarely produces tournament winners in my experience, and these two are hardly prolific anyway. So I'm skipping quite a few runners to go for a couple of big priced each-way bets. As we have no course form to go on, the key attributes here are fair recent form and a solid greens in regulation record. The two that I like are MARKUS BRIER and TOM WHITEHOUSE. Brier, a runaway winner in his native Austria earlier this season, has a very solid long game and is always a serious threat at the lower European level. As for Whitehouse, last weekend's 7th place was his third top-10 of a promising season.

To add to all the question marks at the International, punting is always harder the week before a Major with doubts surrounding the motivation of the big players. With Woods absent, there's every reason to think PHIL MICKELSON will want to make hay. He is better suited than anyone to this attacking format, holds the tournament scoring record and did run away with the Bellsouth Classic the week before his 2nd Masters title. No doubt he will be using this event to practice shots made for Medinah, but he's good enough to get away with that and so rates a saver at least.

I find it easier to justify backing Phil at shortish odds here because I really want to take on the course specialists, Ernie Els and Retief Goosen. An on-song Ernie would be favourite in an event he loves, but despite his Open third I'm still not convinced. Els managed to stay in contention during the last Major because he is one of the greatest scramblers ever, but I still thought his game looked out of sorts over that weekend. As for Goosen, the last couple of efforts have been an improvement but the putter still remains very cold. And surely in this birdie-fest, the putter is going to be very important. For the same reason, obviously Sergio Garcia must be overlooked.
With the format favouring attacking players and 5 points for every eagle, it stands to reason that the longer and more attacking players will prosper. One guy who fits that bill perfectly is PAUL CASEY. More importantly, Casey has form under this format. Not only did he finish 10th on his last event here, but this rising English star also won the ANZ Championship a few years back when that event was played under stableford scoring. Also ace putter LUCAS GLOVER should like this format, and after a return to form at the weekend, could be set for a strong run to finish a very promising season.

CAMILIO VILLEGAS gave us a decent run for our money at 150/1 last week, and though the odds are significantly shorter at 66/1 now, I'm sticking with the Colombian. This superb prospect has the length, the iron play and attacking game to prosper under these conditions. It won't be long before he's challenging for Majors, but for now I prefer his chances in events where birdies and eagles are rewarded most.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

KLM DUTCH OPEN

6pts win COLIN MONTGOMERIE @ 9/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew MARKUS BRIER @ 66/1 (BET365, TOTE, HILLS)
1pt ew TOM WHITEHOUSE @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

THE INTERNATIONAL

4pts PHIL MICKELSON @ 8/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew PAUL CASEY @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew LUCAS GLOVER @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 66/1 (BET365, BET DIRECT, TOTE, BETFRED)

2006 STATS: (-108.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

Betting previews for Scandinavian Masters and Buick Open

2006-08-01T17:15:00.000-07:00

The venue for this week's Scandinavian Masters has proved very lucrative for me in the past. Barseback is the type of course that strongly favours the best players from tee to green, and subsequently the top-10 is normally packed with the obvious candidates. The problem this year is the lack of world-class players, certainly nobody fits the bill as obviously as Colin Montgomerie, Adam Scott or Luke Donald, the last three Barseback winners.

The betting is inevitably dominated by Swedes. Despite having 5 wins between them this year, Robert Karlsson and Johan Edfors have to cede favouritism to Ryder Cup probables CARL PETTERSSON and HENRIK STENSON. If Karlsson can reproduce last week's golf in Germany, he'd be a match for anyone in the world and a shoe-in here but back to back winners are very rare unless your name is Tiger Woods. Pettersson though, looks perfectly primed to contend again this week. Forget last week's missed cut, that came straight off a top-ten finish at the Open. Twice a winner in the States in the last nine months, Pettersson's form is at a higher level than anyone else in the field. There's course form on offer too - he finished 6th here in 2003 when half the player of today.

Stenson has the greatest long-term potential of the home contingent, and must rate worthy of a saver. His form over the winter, culminating in a magnificent 3rd place on his Sawgrass debut, seemed to establish Stenson as a world-class player. The problem is that his form has been moderate at best since an April win in Asia. As Henrik was a very creditable runner-up to Donald in 2004 on a course that very clearly suits, I'd still expect him to be there or thereabouts.

Another player just perfect for Barseback is SOREN HANSEN. 9th place in 2001 is the best of a moderate record for the Dane at Barseback. This is strange as Soren has always hit a high percentage of greens in regulation. 2006 has probably been his most consistent to date, making his last nine cuts and finishing runner-up on consecutive weeks in June. His two most recent outings at Loch Lomond and Gut Kaden have yielded top-15 finishes in markedly stronger company so a repetition would put him right in the thick of it here.

The similarly named PETER HANSEN also looks a sound each-way investment. A winner in Portugal last year, Hansen is generally no more than a consistent top-30 man in Europe but he usually comes to life on the courses that suit his rock-solid long game. He tied with Stenson in distant 2nd to Luke Donald here two years ago and also finished 9th in 2001. And finally in Europe, JARMO SANDELIN is yet another Swede worth a punt. Jarmo has been in better form recently than for years. After finishing the weekend strongly, this six-time European Tour winner looks a very likely contender here.

I'm probably unique in being primarily interested in events in Sweden this week as Tiger Woods makes a swift return from another facile Major win at the Buick Championship. I must confess to being a bit depressed after Tiger's Open stroll - not due to any dislike of the great man, rather its effect on golf betting. I have to be very confident about his motivation before backing him to win at less than 3/1, while at the same time worrying that he will end each event as a contest by Sunday. At least in compensation there's always some fun to be had trading his price in-running. Woods certainly has a superb course record. In seven outings at Warwick Hills, Tiger has won once, been runner-up twice and has a worst finish of 11th. Clearly he's going to be in contention so should his price drift after a slow start, I'll probably back him then. But for now I can't take short-odds on someone who has still not proved to have overcome driving troubles.

Spicing things up further, we have the spectacle of VIJAY SINGH chasing a third consecutive Buick win and a fourth career win at Warwick Hills. This ultra-proud workaholic will be desperate to set the record straight after Hoylake and a very rare missed cut in a Major. Prior to the Open, he'd looked quite resurgent over the previous three weeks, winning the Barclays Classic and finishing top-6 in the other two events. I suspect the Open was an aberration - he's never been a great links player anyway - and find it very hard to see Vijay out of the top-10 this week.

When you look at the course record of JIM FURYK, it is confirmed that this course favours the best players. Though the odds seem short, all the big three are highly likely to be in contention on Sunday. 2003 Buick winner Furyk has finished top-10 in six of the last seven years, and only once out of the top-20 in nine visits. Considering his game is as good as ever, testified by three consecutive top-4s including two Majors and an all-time high world ranking of 5th place, its hard to leave Furyk out of calculations despite miserly odds of 10/1.

Looking at the rest of the field, the only other players who stand out on course form are Open runner-up CHRIS DIMARCO and US Open champ Geoff Ogilvy. Regular readers will hopefully remember my long advocacy of Ogilvy as a prospect at big odds, but I just can't bring myself to back him at a best quote of 20/1. He now has the reputation of a Major winner to defend. But Dimarco is still pretty reasonable at 28/1. The only negative for me is that his Open heroics came out of the blue after an awful run of form. After a magnificent match-winning effort at last year's Presidents Cup and an early 2006 win in Abu Dhabi I really expected Dimarco to do big things this year. I don't see why Hoylake shouldn't be the turning point, as Chris seeks to cement a good run of form prior to the Ryder Cup where he will be a pivotal player.

As I said the rest of the field make little appeal, with two exceptions. I'm giving yet another chance to ZACH JOHNSON to build on a growing reputation. Zach is another one I expect to play a key Ryder Cup role, is well overdue a second Tour win and finished 2nd on his course debut last year. An even better value alternative is CAMILIO VILLEGAS at 150/1. This outstanding prospect has gone off the boil slightly after an outstanding first half of the season. Nevertheless he seems to prosper on the best courses and is likely to be threatening leaderboards again before very long.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

SCANDINAVIAN MASTERS

4pts ew CARL PETTERSSON @ 14/1 (BETFRED, BLUESQ, PADDY POWER, HILLS)
4pts win HENRIK STENSON @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew SOREN HANSEN @ 28/1 (BET365, EXPEKT, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew PETER HANSON @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JARMO SANDELIN @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

BUICK OPEN

4pts ew VIJAY SINGH @ 11/1 (BETFRED, SKYBET, STAN JAMES, VICTOR CHANDLER)
4pts win JIM FURYK @ 10/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew CHRIS DIMARCO @ 28/1 (BET365, BET DIRECT, TOTE, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 150/1 (STAN JAMES)

2006 STATS: (-72.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

Betting preview for Deutsche Bank and US Bank Championship

2006-07-25T14:45:00.000-07:00

There's always a fear after a Major championship that backing players who were in contention can be a risky business, as it must be hard to motivate oneself in the lesser event. Thankfully the only players in contention at Hoylake to re-appear this week are Sergio Garcia, Angel Cabrera and Andres Romero - neither of whom could hardly be described as being in the thick of it.

The European event in Germany very much takes centre stage with one of the best fields of the year. With the understandable exception of Darren Clarke and late withdrawal Colin Montgomerie, pretty much everyone who is anyone in European golf is playing, along with world-class South Africans Retief Goosen and Tim Clark. The course, Gut Kaden, has a history of separating the men from the boys so I'm expecting a leaderboard packed with stars. Several look well worth taking on. I can't back Goosen, in spite of a good course record, because he was unconvincing again at the Open. Similarly, Sergio Garcia may have produced his best for a long time on a tailor-made course but is unlikely to hole enough birdie putts here. David Howell is struggling, Henrik Stenson has looked off the pace for months now and defending champ Niclas Fasth has plenty to prove after a poor month.

The standout selection for me is a man who missed the cut at Hoylake, PADRAIG HARRINGTON. I had fancied Pod long-term for the Open, but changed my mind at the last as I don't think the benign conditions favoured him. Not for the first time anyway, Harrington spectacularly failed to deliver when carrying massive expectations into a Major. Having benefitted from a weekend rest, I expect him to bounce back here. A winner at Gut Kaden in 2003, last year's lacklustre effort can be ignored as it was just a week after the death of his father. Prior to the Open Harrington had looked a winner in waiting with three top-5s from four starts, so this looks a perfect opportunity at quite reasonable odds of 16/1.

All of my other three selections made the cut at Hoylake, but will have been disappointed with their efforts. Firstly, LUKE DONALD showed again that he doesn't have the game for links golf just yet. This sort of parkland test is far more to his liking, and I expect a swift return to his ultra-consistent PGA Tour form. Gut Kaden used to be a big-hitters paradise, but course changes mean that accuracy too is essential. That brings Donald into it for me, as his one obvious weakness is length off the tee, but greens in regulation are more likely to be important nowadays.

Despite this, those who hit it long and straight should score very well. Taking this into consideration, I've got to overlook PAUL CASEY's abysmal weekend. When you're holding an ante-post voucher for the Order of Merit, it is extremely disheartening to see a player look so disinterested when there is plenty of Euros still up for grabs. He's clearly another Brit who has much to learn about links, but again Gut Kaden is a completely different proposition. He was 5th to Harrington here in 2003, and again you can overlook last year's failures as he was badly out of form at the time. If Casey returns to the form he was showing up until the Open, its very hard to imagine him out of the top-10.

Finally in Europe, I'm straying back into the market to back a player who must owe me a small fortune, LEE WESTWOOD. A dual winner at Gut Kaden, Westwood must fancy his chances of continuing his recent improved form. 4th in Ireland earlier in the month, his last round of 69 in tough scoring conditions at Hoylake was excellent and could act as the perfect warm-up.

The PGA Tour moves on to its regular fixture at Brown Deer Park, home of the US Bank Championship. While the recent roll-call of winners doesn't suggest picking the winner will be easy, it does suggest experience is the order of the day with Ben Crane and Shigeki Maruyama the only 'young' winners in the last decade. The course specialist par excellence and market leader is KENNY PERRY. Because he hasn't quite hit the heights of recent years since a back operation, Perry is as big as 16/1 to win a title he last won in 2003. Bearing in mind that he has not finished lower than 9th on his last six visits and was placed on four of those, 16/1 is a very big each-way price. And I'm not deterred by the injury and inferior 2006 form. 2 of his last 4 US starts have resulted in top-15 finishes. Such is the competitive nature of the US Tour, you can't finish that high playing too far below your best.

Otherwise, this looks a great opportunity for a couple of players still looking for that elusive first Tour win. I've stated the case for BO VAN PELT on several occasions. Its getting a bit frustrating waiting for the breakthrough, but Bo deserves credit for his consistency. Missing the cut at Hoylake was Van Pelt's first since the opening event of the year. He must have every chance on a course where he has two consecutive top-15 finishes against a field notably lacking the class of most other weeks. Asides the Majors, four of BRETT QUIGLEY's last six PGA Tour starts have yielded top-10 finishes which makes 50/1 look absolutely huge. The case for Quigley is even further enhanced when you look at his Brown Deer Park record - top-4 in two of the last three runnings of this event.

Finally, someone who fits the bill as a typical Brown Deer Park experienced winner is JERRY KELLY. In his native Wisconsin, consistent Kelly is always a player to be reckoned with. In his last 10 outings on this course, Kelly has an impressive six top-15 finishes including a second and third place. After a solid Open and a reasonably consistent season, I'll be surprised if he's too far away come Sunday.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

DEUTSCHE BANK

2.5pts ew PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 18/1 WITH EXPEKT)
2.5pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 40/1 (BET DIRECT, BETFRED)

US BANK CHAMPIONSHIP

2.5pts ew KENNY PERRY @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew BO VAN PELT @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew BRETT QUIGLEY @ 50/1 (365, LADBROKES, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew JERRY KELLY @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-64.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

British Open Preview

2006-07-18T13:08:00.000-07:00

As you can no doubt imagine, finding the winner of the Open Championship is something I spend months pondering, but I have to say the 2006 renewal is as wide-open and tough to call as I've ever seen. As well as looking for all the usual necessary credentials in an Open winner- good links record, ability to play in the wind, good short game - we also have to decipher the exact nature of the Hoylake course. Unlike every other Open in living memory, we have absolutely no course form to work from as it was last held there in 1967. Surprisingly, despite all the equipment advances in the intervening period, Hoylake will only play a couple of hundred yards longer. Graeme McDowell gave a lengthy radio interview and described the requirements he believed were necessary. McDowell, not a forlorn trade at a huge price himself by any means, said he felt it was the type of course where the best players would rise to the top of the leaderboard, and expected to see an all-star top-10. He said it was a positional course, with accuracy from the tee to dry, narrow fairways essential to set up the best angle and avoid the penal rough and bunkers. Wind is the course's main defence, so with the weather forecast very good I expect we'll see some very low scores this week.

Matters are complicated further by the fact that all of the big-5 have question marks surrounding them. Despite only 2 outings since the Masters, Tiger Woods showed he is in decent enough form at the Western Open a fortnight ago, finishing 2nd after a poor start. But Cog Hill, always one of his favourite courses, has little in common with Hoylake and Woods' open record suggests he is very poor value. Asides two facile wins at St Andrews, a course made for Tiger if ever there was one, he has never looked like winning an Open. Phil Mickelson may have blown the US Open last month but he comes into this as the leading player in many people's eyes. But his Open record is poor, finishing in the top-10 only once. Vijay Singh has improved on links courses over the years but this remains his worst Major and he could well struggle if the greens dry out. Retief Goosen looked a banker each-way selection 6 weeks ago but has lost his form since.

Of the other six in the world's top 10, Adam Scott has a shocking Open record, as does David Howell. Geoff Ogilvy was one of my long-term fancies for this when he was a 100/1 chance, but all of that has long gone with his US Open win and very, very few players win two Majors in succession. Sergio Garcia is interesting after four Open top-10s in five years, but can't be trusted until his putting consistently improves. So we're left with ERNIE ELS and JIM FURYK. Ernie has enough question marks of his own to answer, having failed to produce anywhere near his best since returning from injury just before Christmas. The consequence is that the greatest links player, and most consistent Open contender of the last decade is twice the price of recent years. I was quietly encouraged by Ernie's warm-up at Loch Lomond, his first event since taking a break after the US Open to prepare intensively for this. He improved after a slowish start in Scotland to finish in the top-10, ranking an impressive fourth for greens in regulation. He sounds confident and reckons Hoylake will suit. I've backed Els in some way or other for the Open pretty much every year since he turned pro, and have been rewarded over and again with one win, three second places, as well as four other top-10s. On many of those occasions, he came into the event below his best, so I'd be mad to abandon the strategy in this most open of Opens.

Furyk is more of a risky proposition, but the odds make the gamble worth it. Finishing 4th twice and then 10th from 1997 - 1999, Furyk looked a likely future Open winner but since then its all gone horribly wrong in this event. Only one cut has been made since, and even then he finished a disappointing 41st. Amongst those six failures, three can be excused as two were at the totally unsuitable St Andrews and once he was struggling with a wrist injury. 2006 though, has arguably been Furyk's best. A win at Wachovia is supplemented by four other top-4 finishes, all in the highest company on the PGA Tour. Most recently, he must have been devastated to miss out on a play-off for the US Open by missing from four feet on the last hole. The final factor that leads me to overlook those poor recent Opens is the fact that Hoylake simply must suit Furyk. He is as straight as anyone off the tee, among the very best iron players and a superb putter.

Though his 2006 form has so far been patchy, I can see MICHAEL CAMPBELL going very well here. 5th place at St Andrews last year was Cambo's best Open since nearly winning at the same venue in 1995, and confirmation that having won the US Open he no longer looked out of place amongst the elite. Since returning from his winter break, he has looked sublime on occasion but back to his infuriating worst on others. I like the fact that Campbell swerved one of his favourite events at Loch Lomond to prepare, and think 50/1 is a more than adequate estimation of his chances. And throughout his career, the Kiwi has shown his best form on tough, positional golf courses, especially on linksy courses in Australasia.

At the outstanding price of 100/1, MIKE WEIR looks to have been seriously under-rated. Weir is a great player of positional golf courses, combining accuracy with fine wedge play and a sublime short-game. Having chipped his way to the 2003 Masters, Weir looked a likely future Open winner when 9th at Troon in 2004. Unfortunately he lost all form for a year but has bounced back well this year without winning just yet. 6th at the US Open, his third good showing in that Major, proved he was back to his best and he also hasn't missed a cut since February. When winning the Masters, Amex and Tour Championships, the Canadian left-hander has proved himself well up to winning on the big stage. A Hoylake Open represents his best chance yet of proving it in this particular Major.

There are several outsiders fancied to go well, and its a dilemma choosing which market to play for each. Normally I like the top European and top Rest of the World player markets but with so many contenders in each, this looks less value than usual. So, first of all, I'm backing ROD PAMPLING for the outright at a juicy 125/1. Pampling first sprung to fame when leading the Open after day 1 at Carnoustie only to miss the cut. Since then, the consistent Australian has slowly grown in stature, and finally shed the bottler tag when winning the prestigious Bay Hill Invitational. He's followed up by missing only one cut, finished a creditable 16th at the Masters and registering three more top-10s, all in high-grade PGA Tour events. As an Aussie used to playing classic linksy courses like Royal Melbourne and Huntingdale, Pampling should relish the conditions of the Open Championship and looks top value in the outright, top-20 and spread markets.

This year's Open represents clearly the best chance of a first European Major success since Paul Lawrie at Carnoustie in 1999. I can never remember our continent having as much strength in depth as it has this year. Luke Donald was left out of the staking plan very reluctantly, and only because he has yet to achieve anything of note in an Open. He has played the course recently though, expressing great confidence afterwards and like Furyk, looks the ideal type for Hoylake. Padraig Harrington was a long range fancy for this, but at a best priced 22/1 is short enough. If the wind gets up though, I will certainly be backing Pod in-running. Jose-Maria Olazabal was another long-range fancy, but his form seems to have deserted him in the last few weeks. For the first time ever, I give Colin Montgomerie a decent chance of winning - as long as the wind stays away - though I suspect Winged Foot will go down as his last and best chance of landing that elusive Major. IAN POULTER certainly doesn't look a forlorn hope for a home winner on the basis of some excellent recent form and a personal best at last year's Open. I prefer to back the Luton man in speciality markets though. In particular, he looks an outstanding bet to beat Angel Cabrera over 72 holes with Bluesq and Paddy Power. Cabrera has only one good Open to his name at Carnoustie and looks totally unsuited to this short course.

With so many UK and Ireland players in contention, the best market in which to back MIGUEL ANGEL JIMINEZ is the "Top Continental Europe" market. There's only 20 competitors here, including Seve Ballesteros and four other complete no-hopers. The market is headed by Sergio Garcia and Jose-Maria Olazabal, whom I've expressed doubts about above. Jiminez meanwhile remains one of the most under-rated players in the world. Despite 13 European Tour wins and numerous good efforts in Majors, including top-20 in both the 2006 Masters and US Open, Jiminez always seems to be spoken of and priced up as a lower order player. It would come as no surprise if he were to land a Major before his career is out, and I think Hoylake will suit the Spaniard. I only left him out of the outright staking plan at the last minute, and then only because he looks outstanding value for this specific market.

My most lucrative Open market over the years has been variations of the top American or top American without Tiger markets. With little confidence surrounding Woods this year, bookies haven't bothered leaving him out so odds are inflated to compensate for the inclusion of Woods and Mickelson. As I said above, I'm not particularly positive about either of those and the only serious American contender I fancy is Jim Furyk. Therefore there must be a bit of value in picking out some big prices here for each-way betting. Yet again, FRED COUPLES has been massively underestimated at 50/1. Freddie is the best player never to win an Open in my view with nine top-10 finishes. 4th at St Andrews last year and 3rd at the Masters proved Couples is not finished at the highest level just yet. I can see this course favouring the experienced players, and as long as the weather stays good and the old back problems don't flare up, Couples shouldn't be too far away. With consistency from tee to green essential here, BART BRYANT and BO VAN PELT also look well worth a shout at 66/1. Van Pelt hasn't missed a cut since January and made both cuts in his previous Open appearances. Ultra-accurate Bryant too impressed on his Open debut last year when finishing 23rd, and also went well for a long way at Winged Foot before some final day disasters sent him back to 32nd. To repeat, if the wind doesn't blow too hard, players hitting greens in regulation are bound to score well here and both of these score very highly in that category. Finally, I must back JEFF MAGGERT in this market at 100/1. Having finally won a strokeplay event earlier this year after years of bottling, Maggert may well add to a mightily impressive Majors record. The fact is most Major courses require accuracy and consistency from tee to green as an essential, so people like Maggert keep popping up in the top-10. After countless high finishes in US Majors, Hoylake could present Maggert with his best opportunity of matching his only top-5 Open finish from 1996 at Lytham.

Skybet have opened a new market on a top-20 finish, which looks the perfect format to back some of the outsiders I fancy. As I've said, the Australians should be comfortable with the conditions, and as well as Pampling, I reckon RICHARD GREEN, BRETT RUMFORD, MATTHEW GOGGIN and JARROD LYLE all have a squeak of a high finish at Hoylake. NICK O'HERN is another Aussie who looks set for a high finish but as he is very short for the top-20 I prefer him as a spread proposition.

Finally, some more match bets. Last week's Scottish Open winner Johan Edfors is matched against rising PGA star CARL PETTERSSON. Despite Edfors miraculous progress, I expect him to struggle on his Open debut, especially just days after that memorable Loch Lomond triumph. And Angel Cabrera, who I mentioned above as a player likely to struggle, must be opposed with ultra consistent TIM CLARK. Clark is another ultra-accurate player bound to be suited by the course, but who has been overlooked here due to a poor Open record. He shouldn't have to finish too high to get the better of Cabrera though.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

OUTRIGHT - (PADDY POWER, BETFRED AND BLUESQ ALL GO 1/4 ODDS, 6 PLACES)

2.5pts ew ERNIE ELS @ 16/1 (18/1 SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew JIM FURYK @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew MIKE WEIR @ 100/1 (LADBROKES, STAN JAMES, VICTOR CHANDLER)
1pt ew ROD PAMPLING @ 125/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

TOP US PLAYER

1pt ew FRED COUPLES @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BART BRYANT @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew BO VAN PELT @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JEFF MAGGERT @ 100/1 (CORAL, STAN JAMES)

TOP CONTINENTAL EUROPEAN

4pts ew MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ @ 14/1 (HILLS)

TOP 20 FINISH (ALL WITH SKYBET)

4pts ROD PAMPLING @ 10/3
3pts RICHARD GREEN @ 11/2
2pts BRETT RUMFORD @ 15/2
2pts MATTHEW GOGGIN @ 15/2
1.5pts JARROD LYLE @ 12/1

72-HOLE MATCH BETS

11pts IAN POULTER @ 10/11 (VS ANGEL CABRERA)
11pts TIM CLARK @ 10/11 (VS ANGEL CABRERA)
11pts CARL PETTERSSON @ 10/11 (VS JOHAN EDFORS) (VICTOR CHANDLER)

SPREADS

SELL NICK O'HERN FINISHING POSITION 2PTS @ 34 (SPREADFAIR)
SELL ROD PAMPLING FINISHING POSITION 2PTS @ 35 (SPREADFAIR)

2006 STATS: (-57pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

Loch Lomond Betting Preview

2006-07-11T15:22:00.000-07:00

Arguably the best fortnight of the golfing season starts on Thursday with the annual precurser to next week's Open Championship, the Scottish Open at Loch Lomond. A key point to remember is that these two events are very different in nature. Whereas next week's jamboree is the premier links tournament of the year, Loch Lomond is target golf in a picturesque setting. So don't assume for a moment that this week's winner must automatically have a great chance at Hoylake. In fact no Scottish Open winner has ever followed up in the big one.

There's a genuinely world class field on show in Scotland, despite regular visitor Phil Mickelson's sensible decision to practice at Hoylake instead. Former champions Ernie Els and Retief Goosen have plenty to prove on the back of disappointing seasons and are available at 14/1 for the first time in years on a course where they have both excelled. Goosen particularly looks worth opposing after a very poor weekend in Ireland. As for Ernie, rumours of his demise are surely premature and the Big Easy is talking a good game on his website. Els reckons he's been putting in the hours practising for this fortnight and thinks its coming together. At current odds he is very much in my thoughts for Hoylake, but I want to see the evidence first. Loch Lomond normally turns into a putting contest, and this was the area of Ernie's game giving the greatest concern, so he is probably best watched.

Defending champion Tim Clark loves this place and has a very obvious chance after another fast-finish on Sunday, but his great course record is more than factored into the price. Another deterrant to backing the consistent South African is the fact that I just cannot seem to call this guy right! Clark's success here is due in no small part to his ability to hit greens in regulations consistently. On a course where every hole is a birdie chance provided you can keep the ball in play, metronomic accuracy with driver and irons is essential, far more important than length unless the course become soaked. With a decent weather forecast, the relatively short-hitting LUKE DONALD must have a cracking chance as he has a very similar, if slightly superior profile to Clark. On his first visit to Loch Lomond last year, Donald hit 68/67/67/67 to finish 5th and its hard to see how he could ever run up a big score here. Since winning the Honda Classic in March, Luke has retained good form with six top-25 finishes from 9 starts, including three top-10s. 8 of those starts came on the US Tour, and we have seen previously just how dangerous Donald can be when back on the slightly lower grade European Tour.

I'm also surprised to see DAVID HOWELL as big as 18/1 bearing in mind his tremendous progress this season. The Order of Merit leader hinted that he was about to enter the biggest league of all when bang in contention at the US Open for the first two days. It was no surprise to see him struggle under the pressure of his first really serious attempt at a Major, but make no mistake he has arrived amongst the game's elite. His awesome performance when running away with the BMW Championship at Wentworth was followed by more good form in the States. Ignore the missed cut in France a fortnight ago, by his own admission Howell was knackered. This week he will be fresh and well prepared for another tilt at a course he's twice finished in the top-3 previously. His putting stroke in particular should be a massive asset here.

Another one who likes Loch Lomond is IAN POULTER, having finished top-10 for the last three years. Its interesting to see Poulter right up near the top of the driving accuracy stats on the US Tour this season, as I'd never really considered that to be a strength. The fact that Ian hasn't won for a couple of seasons shows just how competitive golf is and how a top player can endure an inexplicable barren run. I'm adamant Poulter is a winner waiting to happen during arguably his most consistent season to date. There's certainly nothing wrong with his temperament, which looked as good as anyone when winning six European Tour titles from 2000 - 2004. After five top-10s in 2006, including 3rd on his penultimate outing in France, a change of luck is surely due.

Unsurprisingly a week before the British Open the field for the PGA Tour event, the JDR Classic, is very weak. This event has produced 16 first time winners in 33 years and looks once again to be a complete lottery. As far as betting is concerned, stakes should be kept to an absolute minimum, but as the event is televised its still worth having a small punt to make a dull event a bit more interesting.

A couple of my favourites head the market, Zach Johnson and Bo Van Pelt. Seeing as they owe me plenty from the last season or two, this will probably be the week they finally oblige but I see them as characters worth chancing at big odds, not when they are less than 25/1. This is especially the case here because they've never done anything of note on this course. Of the shorter prices, the best bet looks rejuvenated STEVE STRICKER. A class act in his heyday, Stricker has come back brilliantly in recent weeks to regain his card after a long spell suffering from injury and severe loss of form. Stricker's made his last six cuts, including three top-6 finishes, the highlight of which was of course the US Open where he played an absolute blinder. This is a course he likes, having finished 4th in 2004 when in nowhere near the form he is now.

I've long been a fan of JUSTIN ROSE, who remains an unfulfilled talent. He really looked the business when winning four times on the European Tour back in 2002, but the death of his father and mentor set him back before he took the brave, but possibly unwise step of going straight to the US Tour. I reckon he'll open his account over there at some stage and as he's not in bad form, a low grade event like this could be the opportunity he's been waiting for.

Finally, I'm having a speculative punt on another unfulfilled talent, PAT PEREZ. The case for 80/1 chance Perez lies largely on two top-12 finishes in 2002 and 2003 on this course. He played well at last week's Western Open for three rounds before a poor Sunday, but has enough about him to get competitive in this company.

Good Luck!

SCOTTISH OPEN

3pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 16/1 (BET DIRECT, TOTE)
3pts ew DAVID HOWELL @ 18/1 (SKYBET, CORAL)
2pts ew IAN POULTER @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

JOHN DEERE RUN CLASSIC

1pt ew STEVE STRICKER @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 50/1 (BETFRED, CORAL, BLUESQ, HILLS)
0.5pts ew PAT PEREZ @ 66/1 (GENERAL, 80/1 WITH BLUESQ)

2006 STATS: (-52pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

By-election analysis

2006-06-30T16:57:00.000-07:00

Thursday's interesting by-election results raise all sorts of interesting questions ahead of the next General Election. Yet again, Tony Blair was saved from the worst possible headlines by a poor Tory performance in Bromley, but there is absolutely nothing for Labour to cheer about. Hazel Blears was rolled out, predictably, to put a positive spin on things but as usual, she failed miserably in convincing anyone bar perhaps Blair, who seems to be completely impervious to his party's imminent decline. The winning independent candidate in Bleneau Gwent made quite a profound victory speech, in which he crystallised the problem faced by the two main parties. He said that, like the dinosaurs, the old political parties who were once considered invincible would die out unless they started to engage with their core support. Just as with Ken Livingstone, Dr Richard Taylor and George Galloway, voters proved more than willing to vote for somebody outside the establishment party machines.

This has far more resonance for Labour. I wrote a couple of years ago on here that Blair was destroying the Labour Party. Now I wonder if the destruction is almost complete. There are virtually no voluntary Labour activists left. New Labour masks its decline as a mass membership party by using paid staff to travel to critical seats, phone canvass and create the illusion of support for Blair at the party conference but its not working. The party is over £10M in debt. Following on from the devastating Dunfermline loss in February, it seems no Labour seat is safe anymore. As it stands, they will struggle to win a single marginal next time. And any hopes of a recovery under a Gordon Brown leadership seem optimistic now. Brown was an asset at the last election, and really should have taken over a couple of years ago when Blair lost all remaining credibility over WMD. But since then his own reputation has taken a nose-dive along with the government in general and David Cameron has emerged, transforming Tory electoral prospects. With the millions of people who define themselves as either socialists, social-democrats or just plain progressives feeling increasingly disenfranchised, Brown's answer is to court the Murdoch press, shift blame from his own incompetance to low-paid public sector workers and signal his support for Trident. Not a sensible strategy.

Labour's problems stem from their transformation into an electoral machine. Under Britain's outdated and unrepresentative electoral system, strategists worked out a long time ago that the only votes worth chasing were those of relatively politically ignorant swing voters who occupied the mythical 'centre-ground'. New Labour's advocates point to three consecutive election victories, but at what cost? We now see that the Left, and much of the loyal core vote that kept the party going during the long opposition years, has given up. When Labour's popularity reaches its low-point, who will be left to support them? Most of us on the Left find a Labour vote unimaginable these days. Now David Cameron promises to imitate this strategy with the Tories, jettisoning one traditional position after another. The interesting thing to see will be how the Right react, should Cameron actually back up his liberalism with policy. Would a Cameron government sideline the party in order to promote loyal, centrally approved A-list candidates? After all, Blair has ignored his party for 9 years yet still they fail to threaten his position.

UKIP's performance in Bromley last night suggests Cameron's core vote will be under threat, but I'm not convinced. Come a General Election, would lifelong Tories really risk another Labour win by issuing a pointless protest vote? There are all sorts of differences between last night's by-election in an ultra-safe Tory seat and a General Election. Firstly, Tory voters may have been complacent and failed to turn out. Secondly, this battle was fought locally by activists - an arena where they rarely trump the youthful, busy Lib Dems. A General Election campaign is largely fought on television, where Cameron has already proved himself as a natural. I'm expecting an extremely slick, if superficial and intellectually dishonest, Tory campaign. Thirdly, come the election, most of those Lib Dem activists will be working in more realistic seats.

What it did confirm was that the Lib Dems and multi-party politics is here to stay. Since Ming Campbell's turgid leadership began, acolytes of the big two have been quick to predict Lib Dem implosion and a return to the days of two-party dominance. No chance. The Lib Dems have carved out their own niche position on the Liberal Left and have proved that their progress from the last decade is a about a lot more than just the leadership. Principled positions on Iraq, Guantanemo, Tuition Fees and Tax have made them the natural home for progressives, especially as Blair turns Labour into a neo-conservative, authoritarian party. Their ever growing base of local councillors has proved the perfect springboard, and they remain the biggest threat to Labour in the North and Scotland. I still think they will suffer a net loss to the Tories next time, but it will be limited and probably be balanced by gains from Labour. With the current electoral geography, a bet on 'No Overall Majority' looks an absolute banker at 2.4 on Betfair.

New Sports Betting Advisory Service

2006-06-30T16:55:00.000-07:00

As you can see, I provide a weekly analysis of the best golf bets on this site free of charge, along with the occasional snooker or politics preview. These make up a very small percentage of my turnover every week and are basically just an introduction to the events in question.I am now also providing a subscription service for a more comprehensive daily analysis of the day's best value.There will be a mixture of outright bets, and in-running trades.

Two subscription options are available. For £10 per week, you'll get the comprehensive golf analysis which will consist of at least three e-mails each week. At the start of the week, I'll pinpoint the early trading value and then after Rounds 2 and 3, I'll advise you of all the best trades ahead of that day's play.The other option is, at £20 per week, a comprehensive analysis of all the sporting events that my attention will be focussed on. Apart from golf, the main sports I cover are cricket, snooker, international football, top-class National Hunt racing and the occasional tennis tournament. As well as these, I'll share any politics betting advice if and when a suitable market arises. There will be a Paypal option on the site very soon, but for now you'll have to contact me to arrange payment. You can either e-mail me at paulmotty@hotmail.com or leave a message and e-mail address below.

Good Luck!

Betting previews for Gleneagles and Avenel golf events

2006-06-20T16:56:00.000-07:00

Its going to be hard for us punters to get as enthusiastic about this weekend's golf after Sunday night's incredible drama, so imagine what it must be like for the golfers. Several defections from exhausted Winged Foot competitors have left the US event bereft of top names, while PAUL CASEY, Thomas Bjorn and Colin Montgomerie are the only top Europeans to fly back for the fairly prestigious Johnnie Walker Championship at Gleneagles. While Monty sounded upbeat to have gone so close, he must be mentally exhausted and he wouldn't be human to not reflect that he probably blew the best chance he'll ever get to land that elusive Major.

Casey will also have been delighted with the weekend's efforts, finished superbly to make top-15 after opening with a 77. He has an extremely obvious chance on a course that he's won before back in 2001. Casey deserves some reward for several months of phenomenal consistency - he's finished no worse than 18th anywhere in the world since January. After the last-day disaster at The Belfry where he had the event won, question marks resurfaced about his bottle. In many ways this reminds me of David Howell's slow progress to the world's top-10. For 18 months, he was the most consistent player in Europe but just couldn't finish off tournaments. Eventually, he nailed an event in Germany last summer which proved the perfect springboard to move up to the highest level in world golf. If Casey continues to play as consistently as this, the rewards will come. We must keep the faith.

The other top player, Bjorn, could be interesting on a course he should like despite having never played it. But as always there's a huge element of guesswork about Bjorn's mindset, its surely better to go with players who didn't make the journey to the States to suffer golfing torture which is bound to have left its mark on confidence. Most obviously, PAUL BROADHURST has a great chance to gain some compensation for failing to qualify for Winged Foot. Enjoying his best form at least for a decade, Borady again played really well behind Robert Karlsson in Austria. A winner already in Portugal this year, knowing he likes the course from a 3rd place in 2003, he must surely be there or thereabouts over the weekend.

FRANCESCO MOLINARI can be forgiven a few disappointing efforts since that runaway debut win in his native Italian Open. Rookies always suffer from inconsistency, especially as they learn the regular courses, but confidence will surely be on a high playing on a course where he finished a fine 6th on his debut last year, Gleneagles has proved a good course for similar novice prospects in recent years - Adam Scott and Paul Casey were both very inexperienced when winning their titles.

Using a similar argument, it wouldn't surprise me at all if ROSS FISHER were a factor on his first main tour visit to Scotland. Over the winter on the South African and Australian tours, Fisher showed a similar level of extemely promising form as Molinari, particularly on classic courses like Fancourt. He lost nothing in defeat when a close 5th behind the vastly more experienced Bjorn, Casey and Clarke in the Irish Open last month, and will be in contention again before long.

Such is the mediocrity of the field for the Booz Allen Classic that it would come as no surprise if this were the week of the 250/1 outsider. Padraig Harrington had looked an extremely vulnerable favourite but now he and Bo Van Pelthas withdrawn, there's about 10 players vying for favouritism from 25/1 upwards. Of this bunch, the only one that strikes me as a likely contender is BART BRYANT. The key to success at Avenel is accuracy to the greens, and Bryant is one of the best in this department. 32nd doesn't really imply how well Bryant played at the US Open as a couple of early disasters distorted a very good week. Interestingly, Bryant had some reasonable form here from 2000-2003. I doubt he ever played a weaker field in those years, when he was nowhere near the accomplished Tour member that he has now become.

TED PURDY hasn't played a round at Avenel since a poor visit in 1999 but seeing as only the most devout golf afficionados had heard of Purdy until a couple of years ago I don't think its particularly relevant. Since winning his first event two seasons ago, Purdy has established himself as a steady, consistent Tour member who gets into contention once every couple of months. After a series of consistent if unspectacular efforts, he looks worth a punt to gain his first place since 5th at the prestigious Bay Hill in March.

I'm also taking another chance on CHARLEY HOFFMAN, who you may remember gave us a real run for our money at 250/1 recently. This emerging prospect has also seemed at his best on courses that reward his accurate long game, and he will also have taken a lot of positives out of his US Open debut. Hoffman was actually on the fringes of contention before a poor Saturday. Sunday's 73 was no disaster though so expect him to come here in good spirits.

Good Luck!

JOHNNIE WALKER CHAMPIONSHIP

6pts win PAUL CASEY @ 9/1 (GENERAL, 10/1 WITH LADBROKES)
1.5pts ew PAUL BROADHURST @ 25/1 (365, BETFRED, CORAL)
1pt ew FRANCESCO MOLINARI @ 50/1 (CORALS, PADDY POWER)
1pt ew ROSS FISHER @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

BOOZ ALLEN CLASSIC

1pt ew BART BRYANT @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew TED PURDY @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew CHARLEY HOFFMAN @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2006 STATS: (-93pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

US Open Betting Preview

2006-06-13T17:18:00.000-07:00

Despite the venue changing every year, you always know pretty much what to expect with the US Open. Extremely narrow fairways, penal rough both besides the fairway and close to the greens, which as long as it doesn't rain are guaranteed to be lightning fast by the weekend. The winner will have to possess patience and endurance in abundance, not to mention nerves of steel and a game with no weaknesses as mistakes will be punished.

Its no wonder with such precise qualities that certain types of player always seem to prosper while others are almost certain to go through their entire careers without ever challenging for a US Open. Ernie Els and Retief Goosen have four between them, for instance, yet neither player approaches the event with their games in anywhere close to full working order. Tiger Woods also has a pair of US Opens to his name, but is unsighted on a golf course since the Masters so form has to be taken on trust. It is also unlikely that, unless putting up a vastly improved driving performance than the norm for the last 2 years, he will enjoy such a narrow test. In the last Major held at Winged Foot, the 1997 USPGA, Tiger was back in 29th place. Nevertheless, it should be remembered that Woods has finished no worse than 5th in his last five majors.

However, I can't find a justification for Woods' price being shorter than PHIL MICKELSON, a man bidding for his third consecutive Major and for me, the best player in the world right now. Prior to 2004, Mickelson had already built up a bank of close finishes in the Majors, but his record since maturing is phenomenal and certainly not reflective of odds of over 7/1. In the 9 Majors since the start of 2004 his record is 3 wins and four more top-10s including very near misses in both 2004 Opens. His genius short game is always a huge asset on the toughest golf courses, as is a rare ability to bounce back quickly after a bad hole. And crucially for this of all events, he is the top-ranked player for greens in regulation in 2006. 3 times a runner-up at Shinnecock, Pinehurst and Bethpage, you'd think Lefty had a US Open in him somewhere. He's never got into one with a more obvious chance.

My long-range fancy for this event had been Jim Furyk, the 2003 champion. Unfortunately my enthusiasm has waned since he pulled out of last week's Barclays Classic with a neck injury. It has been reported that this was only precautionery, and Furyk's game is unaffected. Should his health prove no handicap, with his metronomically accurate game, he will surely be there or thereabouts. Rather than back him on the outright at short-odds under the circumstances, a better way of siding with Jim is to buy IG Sport's US hotshots. The scoring is 20pts for a top-10 finish, 20pts for a win and a 20pt bonus if all 4 players make the cut. Along with Furyk, our star-studded line up is completed by Mickelson, Tiger and David Toms and can be bougjht at 49. All 4 have big chances, in fact Toms was also strongly considered for the outright market.

Normally in Majors I play the top-American market when I fancy an Amercan longshot, but with Tiger and Mickelson both strong, the best way of backing AARON OBERHOLSER is in the outright market. Since his debut win at Pebble Beach in February, Oberholser has looked a regular winner waiting to happen. He went well for a long way at Augusta, before finishing a highly respectable 14th on his Masters debut, and was one of eight leaders in round 3 at Sawgrass before some disaster holes sent him spiralling down. Another player who ranks well in the crucial greens in regulation stats, and in good form with 4th place on his penultimate outing, there must be a decent prospect of Oberholser improving on promising 9th on last year's US Open debut.

Another young American who comes here in encouraging form is ZACH JOHNSON. Despite no show on his two previous appearances, I've long marked down Johnson as a future US Open winner. He possesses all the right steady, accurate traits required and has always looked to have a winning temperament when in contention. After two consecutive top-5 finishes before wisely taking a week off, I'm expecting a peak effort from Johnson this week. The best market to play is the "Without Woods and Mickelson" at 50/1.

With Els and Goosen out of form, the top Rest of the World market makes more appeal than usual. Here I like the chances of consistent South African TIM CLARK at 18/1. Prior to last week's disappointing run, Clark had looked a winner waiting to happen. He is yet another player with the perfect accurate game for US Open courses, a point proven by 13th and 3rd place in the last 2 years.

As well as Clark, Sawgrass winner STEPHEN AMES looks reasonable value at 20/1. Since that career highlight there's been three good efforts out of five, including 11th at the Masters and 4th at Colonial. Again, Ames fits the statistical profile of a US Open winner. In fact, he is also very high on my shortlist for next month's British Open. Finally for this market, KJ CHOI looks under-rated at 40/1. KJ has shown in various Majors that he enjoys the test of the toughest courses more than most and I doubt he'll be too far away.

As for top European, IAN POULTER absolutely stands out at 20/1. Despite disappointing on recent European ventures, Poulter's has been in cracking form this year in the US. He carried the fine form showed in US Open qualifying by finishing 9th at Westchester on Sunday, his second top-10 in three outings. This is amongst the best US form shown by any of the Europeans recently. The fact that he is ranked 3rd in driving accuracy will surely serve him in good stead here.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

US OPEN

8pts win PHIL MICKELSON @ 15/2 (PADDY POWER, BETFAIR)
1pt ew AARON OBERHOLSER @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

BETTING WITHOUT WOODS & MICKELSON

1pt ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 50/1 (SKYBET)

SPREADS

BUY US HOTSHOTS 10pts @ 49 (IGSPORT)

TOP REST OF THE WORLD

3pts ew TIM CLARK @ 18/1 (STAN JAMES 1/4 1-4)
2pts ew STEPHEN AMES @ 20/1 (CORAL 1/4 1-4) 1pt ew KJ CHOI @ 40/1 (CORAL)

TOP EUROPEAN

2pts ew IAN POULTER @ 22/1

2006 STATS: (-65pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

Furyk can warm-up for Open with Westchester win

2006-06-06T15:37:00.000-07:00

Just a week to go until the US Open and still no sign of Tiger Woods on the PGA Tour. Punters and bookies will be forced into guesswork in assessing his chances at Winged Foot. Most of his potential rivals line up somewhere this week, though with bad weather forecast its not out of the question that some of the Americans pull out of the Barclays Classic.

I'm also extremely surprised to see the likes of Thomas Bjorn, Colin Montgomerie and Miguel-Angel Jiminez playing in the low-grade Austrian Open rather than acclimatising in the States. Needless to say, that trio dominate the market but it would take a brave and quite possibly stupid punter to back them at inhibited odds. Jiminez's woeful performance when defending the Wales Open last week served as a reminder of the dangers of backing favourites whose market position is entirely dependent on the weakness of their opponents. Monty put in his best performance in ages in Wales, but doesn't look an imminent winner by any means while Bjorn has a long track record of inconsistency and failing to deliver when expected to.

I suspect the bigger guns also will have one eye on next week's Major so the best strategy here must be to look for a couple of small bets at decent prices. Its not a long course, and previous course form was gained in considerably lower standard Challenge Tour events so there's a strong element of guesswork. At big prices, I like the look of TOM WHITEHOUSE and DAVID GRIFFITHS. First to Whitehouse, who is enjoying a fine first season on the main Tour and is widely rated as a decent prospect. His last seven starts have yielded 3 top-15 finishes in considerably better company which makes the 100/1 on offer look attractive. Griffiths did very well In consecutive weeks in May. 3rd in Spain having led going into the final round, starting that round in catastrophic fashion and coming back strongly was an excellent effort, followed up by 16th place in Italy hovering around the fringes of contention all week. With only two missed cuts all season, this level of tournament is certainly within his range.

The Barclays Classic represents an immeasurably higher standard of golf, with pretty much all of next week's contenders bar Tiger in attendance. As is usually the case, the warm-up for the US Open is played on a track which requires similar accurate qualities. There's a long history of tournaments at Westchester so we've got a bank of course form to work from. Of the big guns, Phil Mickelson's form here is only moderate while Ernie Els, Vijay Singh and Sergio Garcia are all previous winners with fine overall records. The problem with that trio is a lack of any recent form. Retief Goosen's form here is ordinary, and though he's almost certainly improved in the interim the Goose is generally seen to his best on tracks that reward his length rather than accuracy. Padraig Harrington defends his title, having finished runner-up the previous year but this is reflected in the price.

Despite letting me down last week, JIM FURYK must enter calculations once again. Metronomically accurate and therefore liable to hit the vast majority of the small greens here, Furyk has three top-3 finishes at Westchester and six top-20 finishes in 8 years. Surely he must win an event here at some stage in his career, and as he's enjoying arguably his best ever spell over the past year this looks as good a time as any. In any case, last week's relative failure was mostly due to a slow start after an unlucky draw so 18th was no disgrace.
Another player who looks bound to be suited by this course is LUKE DONALD. In the early stages of his career, few players have done me more financial favours than Donald, but this season has been frustrating as I missed his win at the Honda Classic. He was disappointing at Wentworth recently, but on reflection that had as much to do with the conditions as it did with his form. As a short-hitter, lengthened, rain-soaked Wentworth did resemble something of an unsuitable beast over the weekend.

Possessing a very similar, accurate profile, this looks another great opportunity for TIM CLARK to finally open his account in the States. A poor weekend at the Memorial ruined another winning chance, but there's never been any question over Clark's temperament, having won on various continents. It can only be a matter of time if his 2006 record is anything to go by, with four top-20s from his last 6 starts including 2nd at the Masters. Significantly, his last two Westchester visits have yielded top-12 finishes and Clark was also 7th recently at the Heritage Classic, another event where accuracy to small greens is paramount.

Good Luck!

AUSTRIAN OPEN

1pt ew DAVID GRIFFITHS @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew TOM WHITEHOUSE @ 100/1 (PADDY POWER)

BARCLAYS CLASSIC

3pts ew JIM FURYK @ 16/1 (STAN JAMES, PADDY POWER)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 33/1 (BET DIRECT, BLUESQ, TOTE, HILLS)
1pt ew TIM CLARK @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-60pts)2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

Resurgent Olly big value at Memorial

2006-05-30T16:25:00.000-07:00

Its back to the usual sub-standard fare in Europe this week. Despite good prize money and a great course at Celtic Manor, hardly any of the big names on show at Wentworth over the weekend have stayed on for the Wales Open. The market leader is Miguel-Angel Jiminez, who hit one of the rounds of 2005 with a last day 62 to win the title here. Despite his best ever Wentworth finish confirming Jiminez is in good form, he makes no appeal at a best price of 10/1. Neither does the other challenger for favouritism, Michael Campbell, make much appeal after a disappointing weekend where he confessed afterwards to not really hitting the heights of last season just yet.

This looks primed for another big-priced winner, (though probably not as unlikely as Jeff Maggert last week!). The only obvious contender for me is the homegrown BRADLEY DREDGE. We saw recently with Francesco Molinari how a national Open can often bring the best out in a player, and Dredge certainly represents the best of the Welsh. 2005 was undoubtably Bradley's best year to date with a series of good finishes, even if his last day putting was a regular concern. Recent weeks have suggested he is coming to form just in time for the summer events and a charge for a Ryder Cup spot. In four weeks since an early-season break, Dredge has made all four cuts and has two top-10 finishes.

Having backed him several times recently, it would be madness to leave out last year's runner-up JOSE-MANUEL LARA. Regular readers will know the reasons inside out by now. He has an outstanding long game, and is generally best on the tougher courses where putting isn't such an issue. Having shown his liking for Celtic Manor, this must represent a good chance to open his European Tour account.

Finally, for an outsider, take a chance on JOSE-FELIPE LIMA. The young French player looks an excellent prospect to me, with a series of good efforts to his name over the past three years. Three consecutive top-20 finishes in April suggested the form was becoming more consistent, though his last couple of efforts in better company have been a tad disappointing. Nevertheless, he has won already on Tour so there shouldn't be any worries on that score, and came a promising 8th place on this course last year.

Without a doubt, the attention of most golf fans will migrate back to the US this week for the Memorial Tournament. A genuine world-class field is on show, with only Tiger Woods missing from the world's top 5. This event is normally won by one of the top players, but there are many problems with pursuing that strategy. Phil Mickelson deserves to start favourite, but I wonder whether he will be fully tuned up on his first start for 3 weeks. This is the beginning of the run-up to the US Open, where Mickelson will bid for the second leg of the Grand Slam. If recent years have been anything to go by with regard to Lefty's preparation, expect him to start peaking next week. Ernie Els has a fine record here, but shows little sign of regaining his pre-injury form just yet. Similarly on past Memorial form, we should be remortgaging our houses to take the 16/1 about Vijay Singh, but his last three efforts have been, frankly, poor. Adam Scott has never shown his best form here.

So of the leading players, we're left by default with JIM FURYK and RETIEF GOOSEN. Of Furyk's last 12 starts, 5 have resulted in top-10 finishes with three further top-20s. At Memorial his record is even better, with a win and three other top-10s from his last eight visits and never missing the cut. 14/1 about an infrequent winner like Furyk is hardly giving money away, but his chance is extremely obvious round here. As for Goosen, 2006 has been solid if unspectacular so far which enables us to take generous odds of 16/1. I'm not concerned in the least with a disappointing effort at Wentworth, where he has never prospered and instead prefer to look at his US Tour form. Four of his last five US starts have resulted in top-10s, with three places. Encouragingly, Goose has made the top-8 on both visits to Muirfield Village too.

The one player on either side of the Atlantic whose price really screams value though is JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL. Sunday's fast-finishing 14th place at Wentworth was a more than acceptable return on his first start for six weeks. He should be well primed for a run at Muirfield Village, a course that will surely suit this world-class iron player. Lets just remind ourselves of Olly's 2006 form. 7th at Sawgrass, 2nd at Sugarloaf and 3rd at Augusta in consecutive weeks in March/April. This following on from 2nd place at Warwick Hills and two other top-20 finishes. Clearly OIly is back to his world-class best, and he should be nowhere near 50/1 for any event when in this form.

Good Luck!

WALES OPEN

2pts ew BRADLEY DREDGE @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JOSE-FELIPE LIMA @ 100/1 (LADBROKES)

MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT

2pts ew JOSE-MARIA OLAZABAL @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew JIM FURYK @ 14/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew RETIEF GOOSEN @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-66pts)2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

Aussie Scott can star at wet Wentworth

2006-05-23T14:01:00.000-07:00

This week's BMW PGA Championship represents the highlight so far of the 2006 European Tour. For once, the field over here is immeasurably superior to the one on show in the States. They've been playing the PGA Championship at the West Course for as long as I've been watching golf, so hopefully good use can be made of the bank of past Wentworth form in finding some value this week. In the past, usually when we've seen dry, fast-running conditions, outsiders have flourished in this prestige event. Recent shock winners include 500/1 Scott Drummond and 200/1 Andrew Oldcorn. I suspect there's much less of that happening at Wentworth now that Ernie Els has overseen various changes to the West Course, including lengthening of over 300 yards. The key to success here over the years has always been accuracy, but the changes, coupled with drenched fairways this week, suggests that length off the tee is of equal importance. As with all great golf courses, waywardness will be severely penalised and the number of potential winners may be limited to the cream of the crop and a handful of players who hit it long and straight.

One might think Els, a 6-time winner of the World Matchplay on this course, would have an advantage having designed the changes. It does seem amazing that he's never won this event, and its been a long time since he started in double figures but frankly he just hasn't impressed recently. Retief Goosen makes even less appeal as he's never even threatened to win here. The player whom I think will most appreciate conditions this week is ADAM SCOTT. Scotty comes here in much better form than those two, with consecutive top-3 finishes in the US. The Aussie seems to absolutely revel in wet conditions, which suit his superb long game and I also feel negates his achilles heel - chipping and putting around dry, fast greens.

As with Els, it seems ridiculous that MICHAEL CAMPBELL has never won a PGA despite challenging on numerous occasions. It was disappointing to see him fail to get into contention in Ireland at the weekend, but close inspection of his card suggests a repetition of the solid form Cambo showed the previous week. From +3 in the first six holes, finishing in 12th place just five shots behind the winner was a decent effort. 3 weeks into his main summer schedule, Campbell should be approaching peak form just about now.

LUKE DONALD gets onto my shortlist in almost every event he plays in, so I can't ignore 20/1 against a European Tour field. 18th place in 2005 was a moderate course debut for a player of his ability, but I'm still convinced he has the perfect game for Wentworth. There is arguably nobody better on narrow, penal courses like this than the consistent Donald, who rarely misses fairways. My only slight nagging doubt is his comparative lack of length off the tee, but if you look back throughout his career, Luke has often prospered on long courses as a result of his superb long irons.

Finally, I was very surprised to see the resurgent JARMO SANDELIN quoted in three-figures. In recent weeks Jarmo has had no peers as far as this week's central requirement is concerned, long, straight driving. Missing the cut at unsuitable, linksy Carton House came as no surprise to me, especially after two consecutive weeks in contention previously. A six-time winner in Europe, Sandelin is a man to take seriously when in form. Two top-10s here in 1996 and 1999 show he can play the course well when in form. Subsequent poor efforts are readily overlooked because his game has been all over the place in that period.

There's also loads of course form to analyse for the US event, the Fedex St Jude Classic at Southwind, though not all of it is entirely relevant as there have been significant course changes in recent years. DAVID TOMS' record here is nothing short of magnificent, finishing 4th and 2nd either side of wins in 2003 and 2004. The problem with backing him confidently at single figure odds is a best finish of 15th from his last six starts. Prior to that of course, Toms had been in superb nick so recent disappointments are probably just a blip and with so few other obvious winners I have to include DT in the staking plan. Fellow major winner and defending champion Justin Leonard similarly has a superb course record, but hasn't finished in the top-25 since February. Bob Estes is another with an outstanding record at Southwind but is a measly 28/1 for such a Tour also-ran.

The one player with good course and recent form is a player I'm adamant will get off the mark in the US soon, FREDDY JACOBSEN. Top-6 on all three Southwind visits, Jacobsen has done better here than anywhere else on the PGA Tour, and last weekend's just off the pace effort had the hallmark of an imminent winner. Again the price hardly screams value, but he must be backed nonetheless as the opposition isn't terrifying.

Good Luck!

BMW CHAMPIONSHIP

3pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 20/1 (BET DIRECT, LADBROKES, SKYBET, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 25/1 (BLUESQ, SKYBET, VICTOR CHANDLER, SPORTING ODDS)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JARMO SANDELIN @ 125/1 (BET DIRECT, BLUESQ)

FEDEX ST-JUDE CLASSIC

3pts win DAVID TOMS @ 8/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew FREDDY JACOBSEN @ 22/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 25/1 WITH BLUESQ)

2006 STATS: (-43pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

ANTE-POST ALREADY ADVISED

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1

New`Sports Betting Advisory Service

2006-05-09T09:32:00.001-07:00

As you can see, I provide a weekly analysis of the best golf bets on this site free of charge, along with the occasional snooker or politics preview. These make up a very small percentage of my turnover every week and are basically just an introduction to the events in question.I am now also providing a subscription service for a more comprehensive daily analysis of the day's best value.There will be a mixture of outright bets, and in-running trades.Two subscription options are available. For £10 per week, you'll get the comprehensive golf analysis which will consist of at least three e-mails each week. At the start of the week, I'll pinpoint the early trading value and then after Rounds 2 and 3, I'll advise you of all the best trades ahead of that day's play.The other option is, at £20 per week, a comprehensive analysis of all the sporting events that my attention will be focussed on. Apart from golf, the main sports I cover are cricket, snooker, international football, top-class National Hunt racing and the occasional tennis tournament. As well as these, I'll share any politics betting advice if and when a suitable market arises. There will be a Paypal option on the site very soon, but for now you'll have to contact me to arrange payment. You can either e-mail me at paulmotty@hotmail.com or leave a message and e-mail address below.Good Luck!

Casey and Cabrera to launch money list bids

2006-05-09T09:25:00.000-07:00

At last, we've reached that great time of the year when, for the next 5 months, we are pretty much guaranteed two world-class events on either side of the Atlantic every week. The European Tour begins a spell of lucrative tournaments with the British Masters at The Belfry and therefore the race for the Order of Merit now starts in earnest. All is still to play for as leader David Howell has only 1M Euros to his name, almost certainly no more than 40% of the total required to win. It looks even more wide open than ever this year with usual jolly Ernie Els struggling for form. To win the OOM, you need some big showings in the Majors and WGC events, especially if like Els, dual-champ Goosen, Garcia, Donald and Olazabal you only play in a limited number of European events. The betting at present is ridiculously biased in favour of the four market leaders and offers no end of each-way value.

The four contenders according to the betting are Howell, Henrik Stenson, Els and Goosen. I've already mentioned Els' lack of form. Goosen proved again last year that he is disinterested in a third OOM, and will miss key events at the end of the year. In any case, he's not playing at The Belfry so his price won't shorten in the short-term. I do rate Stenson very highly, and Howell certainly has a great chance if he can reproduce the European form of the last two summers. But those two are hardly in another league to the likes of PAUL CASEY, ANGEL CABRERA, MICHAEL CAMPBELL and others who are at least eight times the price just because they trail be a few hundred thousand at this early stage. Ladbrokes are still offering generous each-way terms of 1/4 odds the first 4 so I recommend backing Casey and Cabrera each-way with them.

Both of these two are also in my staking plan for this week. But as far as the OOM is concerned, 66/1 chance Cabrera finished 5th last year, along with two 11th places in the previous three years. The huge hitting Argentinian always plays well at this stage of the year in Europe, and has the potential to surprise some of the bigger names in the Majors. In the past his prize money tally has suffered as a consequence of the infrequency of his wins, but he isn't a bottler. The way Cabrera won the Volvo PGA last year for instance, was exemplary. With a bit of luck at the right time, he could easily emerge as a world-class player. Casey's price of 33/1 is even crazier. Paul plays a very heavy European schedule, and has been an absolute model of consistency since last autumn. He's had no luck in recent final rounds, but another win is surely around the corner. If he were to win this week, on a course where he won the last event played there, Casey would probably be single figures on Monday to win the money list, let alone finish in the first 4. As for Campbell, 66/1 would be massive if he were to recapture his 2005 form. I'm not overly concerned that this streaky player hasn't done anything notable since January as, like Cabrera, his season never seems to get going until the big money events in May. Backing him this week without a recent outing would be a risky business, but expect Cambo to be right back in the groove for Wentworth and his US Open defence. His price with Ladbrokes is much shorter than the best, so I recommend a win only bet on him with Skybet.

So onto this week's event at The Belfry. I don't think this event is too difficult a puzzle to solve. The course is not straightforward by any means, favouring the longer hitters and best iron players. I'll be surprised if more than 25 players finish under par. After working my way through the first 30 or so in the betting, I was left with a shortlist of only nine players who I give a decent chance to. Of those 9, I'm overlooking Colin Montgomerie whose form I am unconvinced about. Richard Green also bites the dust on the grounds that he doesn't win very often and bottled an outstanding chance to turn over Woods and Els in Dubai. The Aussie left-hander remains worth keeping an eye on in speciality bets, especially match bets and finishing positions. David Howell is reluctantly ignored due to a less than impressive course record, though it should be remembered the course form available is from 2000-2003, when Howell was nowhere near the player he is now. The biggest danger to my selections though, has to come from Padraig Harrington. Pod famously blew the B & H International here 6 years ago by being disqualified for signing an incorrect scorecard when 5 clear with a round to go. He also finished in the first three in 2002 and 2003. Clearly this is about a perfect a course for Harrington's usually world-class iron play, but I just can't find anything this season to suggest he's about to win. In fact, he has yet to post a top-10 finish in 2006. Were he to turn it around though, I could live to regret ignoring the 16/1 available here and more to the point, the 25/1 available for the Order of Merit.

Anyway, that leaves us with a shortlist of 5. Casey, impressive winner of the last event played here in 2003, is a very obvious choice. I've already argued his case for the Order of Merit, and this is a great opening opportunity. Cabrera too has a course record to die for, winner in 2002, runner-up the previous year and never worse than 9th. Ignore last week's missed cut in Italy, as that event was probably a warm-up before his favourite spell of the season. There was nothing wrong with his form 4 weeks ago at the Masters.

This course was the scene of HENRIK STENSON's first professional win at a huge price back in 2001. Clearly the Swede is about a hundred times more accomplished nowadays and must fancy his chances. After the win in Qatar and third-place at Sawgrass, 14/1 for an event in Europe would have seemed a bit fanciful but a couple of poor efforts and blowing a last round lead in China has seen his odds drift. When it comes to the central requirement at The Belfry, hitting it long and straight, nobody fits the bill better in this field than Stenson.

The other two selections are bigger prices, NICK DOUGHERTY and JOSE-MANUEL LARA. Dougherty is becoming expensive to follow, but I'm adamant he'll win this summer and at 40/1 he'll pay for all the previous losing weeks and some more. It would be pretty meaningless to look at Dougherty's disappointing efforts here in 2002 and 2003 when he was still very inexperienced. More interesting is 12th place behind Stenson back in his rookie year. In Nick's last event, he hit four sub-70 rounds so there's no reason to doubt his form. He too, should possess the credentials for this course. Finally Lara has to be included at massive odds of 80/1. I know he is yet to win a tournament, but his odds don't reflect the ultra-consistent form from tee to green Lara has shown lately. He is definitely one for speciality markets, such as a sell of his finishing position in the mid-30s.

Whereas in Europe, my bets are based around a belief that the winner will come from one of the market leaders, I take the completely opposite view of the US event, the Byron Nelson Classic. With Woods, Mickelson and Goosen absent, there are question marks surrounding so many of the contenders. Ernie Els and Sergio Garcia are struggling. Vijay Singh was a massive disappointment at the weekend, where a last round 81 when still in contention led some people to suggest he may be in terminal decline. A similar thing happened to Vijay at Sawgrass so its not an argument to be dismissed out of hand, but it would take a very brave man to write off this gutsy workaholic. It would be typical of Singh, with his pride wounded, to bounce back here but for now my patience with him has snapped. Adam Scott has never played here and is not generally suited to short par-70 courses. This leaves last week's winner Jim Furyk with a very big chance, but I wouldn't dream of backing him at odds of 10/1 to land rare back-to-back wins. His career form at Las Colinas is only fair, and he's never been a prolific winner.

Looking down the field, the candidates don't fare much better either. Geoff Ogilvy, Tim Clark and Luke Donald might have been considered were it not for either poor course form or injury worries. Scott Verplank looks bound to be there or thereabouts as usual, but rarely wins and makes more appeal in speciality markets. By process of elimination, I think its a fair punt that FRED COUPLES can land this, 19 years after last winning the event. As you'd expect for a player who has long fought against back trouble, Couples' record here is mixed. Aside the win in 1987, Freddy finished runner-up in 1998 and has another three top-10s to his name. 2006 has been his best year for a decade, with only a poor putting stroke on the final holes costing him victory at the Nissan Open and letting Mickelson get away from him on the back 9 at Augusta. I'm sure Freddy was instantly gutted to lose his chance in the Masters in that fashion, but on reflection he must be proud to have finished 3rd and shown that he can still compete at the very highest level. I'll be closing my eyes if he has a testing 3-footer to win on Sunday, but that shouldn't deter an interest at 40/1.

There's been a few big priced winners over the years in this event, with Robert Damron, Ted Purdy, Loren Roberts and John Cook all starting at three figure odds in the last decade. With so many of the shorter priced players unfancied, I've found a batch of outsiders who might represent a bit of value. Accuracy from tee to green is very much required on these courses, which must bring JERRY KELLY into calculations at 80/1. Kelly is usually seen to his best on such courses, and confirmed his wellbeing with a solid 5th place at Hilton Head Island last month. That was a third top-10 of the year for Jerry, who has shown before he is only just below top-class under the right conditions. Both he and Couples are also well worth a look in speciality markets.

2006 has been the best ever year for Australian golf, with Appleby, Pampling, Ogilvy and Baddeley landing 5 US Tour events between them already. The next Aussie to join that list could well be STEPHEN LEANEY. A multiple winner in Europe and Australasia, Leaney's career highlight has to be finishing runner-up to Jim Furyk in the 2003 US Open. He is another who is usually seen to best effect on courses that reward his accuracy, and has finished a creditable 7th and 27th in the last two years here. Just lately his stats have been particularly impressive without managing to string four good rounds together to seriously alert the judges. At 125/1, its worth having a punt that this is the week this proven winner finally clicks in the States.

My final two selections are extremely speculative. CHARLEY HOFFMAN and DAVID BRANSHAW have both run up some nice figures recently based around their tee to green game. At 150/1, a continuation of that form would give them an outside squeak. Slight preference is for Branshaw, who also finished 14th on his sole visit in 2004.

Good Luck!

VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 33/1 (LADBROKES)
1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 66/1 (LADBROKES)
1pt win MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1 (SKYBET)

BRITISH MASTERS

3pts ew HENRIK STENSON @ 14/1 (BET DIRECT)
3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 18/1 (BET DIRECT, BET365, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 80/1 (365, CORAL, PADDY POWER)

BYRON NELSON CLASSIC

1pt ew FRED COUPLES @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew JERRY KELLY @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew STEPHEN LEANEY @ 125/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew DAVID BRANSDON @ 150/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 200/1 WITH SPORTING ODDS/BET)
0.5pts ew CHARLEY HOFFMAN @ 150/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-2.25pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

NOTE: LAST WEEK'S STATS WERE SLIGHTLY WRONG. I HAD FORGOTTEN TO ADD THE PLACE RETURNS OF JOSE-MANUEL LARA THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

2006-05-01T15:50:00.000-07:00

The European Tour moves on to the Italian Open this week. The market leader and classiest player on show by some way is, at 7/1 Argentinian Angel Cabrera. I've no doubt he will be there or thereabouts, as he invariably is on European Tour outings. He makes no betting appeal though as a rare winner, and hasn't won this event at the last attempts (though he did lead going into the final round two years ago.

The best course form on offer comes from ANDERS HANSEN. The Dane has finished 9th and 2nd over the past two years so he must come into the reckoning on the back of some solid form in February and March. In particular, a replication of his effort in 4th place behind Woods and Els in Dubai would make Hansen a shoe-in amongst this company.

Several inexperienced prospects have done well on this course. Graeme McDowell won two years ago and Richard Finch was runner-up last year. On the basis that inexperience clearly isn't too much of a disadvantage, my other three selections are players who are nowhere near fulfilling their potential. Firstly, and quite obviously this looks a chance for Italian FRANCESCO MOLINARI to gain reward for some very solid recent form. Molinari looked very promising over the winter in the globet-trotting stage of the European Tour. Top-tens on world class courses at Perth and in the SA Open at Fancourt marked him down as a player to follow, so he must have a chance in his national Open on a course where he has registered two top-20 finishes already. Molinari also warmed up in the perfect style, playing four good rounds in Spain but never getting beyond the fringes of contention.

100/1 looks a big price for DAVID GRIFFITHS after his weekend exploits. I was particularly impressed with the way he bounced back from the worst possible start to his final round, watching a 2 shot lead disintegrate into an impossible deficit in minutes. Take out six holes when understandably feeling the pressure in a new situation, and Griffiths' week was nothing short of outstanding, an excellent follow up on another recent top-10 in the Algarve. Hopefully David will have learned from that experience, and can continue his progress this week.

The final selection is a small each-way punt on another hot prospect, ANDRES ROMERO. This young Argentinian is a recent graduate from the Challenge Tour, and is being tipped for great things by all sorts of judges. He did indeed look a very exciting prospect when third in Portugal last month. It would asking a lot to win at this early stage in his career, but 150/1 looks worth the risk. Like Molinari, he has already shown decent form here when even less experienced, finishing a highly respectable 21st last year.

I'm really hoping I can get to see some of the US Tour event this week, the Wachovia Championship at Quail Hollow. This venue has really established itself over the last couple of years, and the event attracts as strong a field as you'll find outside the Majors and Sawgrass. Of the players that matter, only Tiger Woods is missing from the field this week, spending time with his dying father.

In Tiger's absence, I am a bit surprised to see odds of 7/1 about Phil Mickelson chalked up. Lets just recap his recent record. He wins the Bellsouth Classic effectively after two rounds, and follows up with his second Masters victory pretty much assured by the back 9. On his first outing back, and probably a bit rusty, he makes a slow start before getting slowly into contention on Sunday only to finish with some bogeys chasing the title. Mickelson is clearly the best player in this field on current form and feared greatly, but perhaps he's done his share of winning for a while. Better to look for bigger prices I think.

On a proper test like Quail Hollow, I suspect this will be fought out by the top players. Of them, there's just too many doubts about Ernie Els' form and fitness to back him at the moment while compatriot Retief Goosen was unimpressive again at the weekend and has never played the course. Sergio Garcia would have a massive chance if he were to show any hint of form with the putter, but recent displays in that department have been truly desperate. David Toms and Chris Dimarco are out of form, and Stuart Appleby has a poor course record.

With doubts about all of these, the case for VIJAY SINGH retaining the title gains strength. Vijay must owe me a fortune now after all my losses on him in the last year, but I'm adamant that there is very little difference between Singh's form now and 18 months ago when he was World No 1. The key is a struggle with the putter, but nowhere near as pronounced as Garcia's problems. Quail Hollow will place a much greater emphasis on greens in regulation than usual, so putting should be less of a factor. No wonder then that the Fijian, who has few peers if any in the long game department, has finished 1st, 2nd and 10th here on three visits.

Similarly with doubts surrounding his main rivals, 33/1 about LUKE DONALD looks an absolutely massive price. Since winning the Honda Classic, and being widely greeted as a Major winner in waiting, a few bad weeks has seen his price shoot right back up to attractive levels. Struggling at Sawgrass and Augusta are hardly evidence of a great loss of form, and I expect Luke to bounce back very soon. Though his best finish from two previous attempts is a moderate 15th, Quail Hollow looks made for an accurate iron player like Donald.

As in recent weeks, I'm sticking with GEOFF OGILVY to continue his steady rise up the golfing echelons. The World Matchplay winner has barely had a bad round for months, and generally seems to be seen at his best on the tougher courses like this one and Major venues. A solid 22nd and 10th on his two previous visits, the logic of his overall improvement implies he must be a contender.

Finally its too early in the week to scour the match bets as few firms will have priced any up yet. If I get a chance to look, I'll let you know, but I will say this much. Look to oppose Stuart Appleby who is bound to be well rated on the back of a win and a fourth place in the last fortnight. It means very little - Apples has poor records on several courses he doesn't like, and hasn't done anything much in three Quail Hollow attempts.

Good Luck!

ITALIAN OPEN

2pts ew ANDERS HANSEN @ 25/1 (SPORTING BET/ODDS, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew FRANCESCO MOLINARI @ 33/1 (SPORTING BET, BET365, EXPEKT)
0.5pts ew DAVID GRIFFITHS @ 100/1 (SPORTING BET,EXPEKT)
0.5pts ew ANDRES ROMERO @ 150/1 (CORAL)

WACHOVIA CHAMPIONSHIP

3pts ew VIJAY SINGH @ 14/1 (SPORTING BET, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew GEOFF OGILVY @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-90.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

Lara can claim long overdue success

2006-04-26T02:11:00.000-07:00

Bad runs at gambling can be an infuriating business, no more so than in golf. In recent weeks, my weekly selections seem to have either hit the woodwork (like Paul Casey), or in some cases like David Howell and Greg Owen, suffered terrible stage fright. The crucial thing to remember is that, because golfers are competing in fields of 150+, its very easy to go on a long losing run and very easy to turn it around. In both the previous years in which I've been doing this, I've managed to turn a profit with a relatively small number of winners.

With decent prize money and fields set for my favoured European Tour over the next couple of months, I'm confident a winning run is imminent. I was somewhat disappointed though to see that this week's Spanish Open has actually attracted an even weaker field than some of the Asian Tour fare of recent weeks. MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ starts favourite for the second week in a row, at a slightly bigger price due to a poor show in Thailand, but this time there is no Casey, Stenson and Dougherty in opposition. Question marks surround all of the market leaders. Jiminez's main rival in the betting is OOM champion Colin Montgomerie. Monty's quote is purely a result of his third place at the weekend, his first form of any description for a while. Certainly not justification to taking 10/1, especially considering the wind being a likely factor.

The course at San Roque club is yet another new one, though expected to be fairly similar to the short, narrow but exposed one on which only ten players broke par last year. Not the type of course one would normally consider favourable to big-hitters like Charl Schwartzel and Ricardo Gonzalez, thought the recent Euro Tour form of Gonzalez does warrant respect. Thomas Bjorn is always dangerous and played well on occasions last week, but is too unreliable and is showing signs of his notorious wayward temperament. The other obvious contenders, NICLAS FASTH and Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano have more solid chances. If Castano hadn't won last week, I would definitely have tipped him this week on home turf but back-to-back wins are rare, especially at his age.

With those question marks, Jiminez might be expected to turn his home advantage to effect. Against him is a hectic globetrotting schedule, and last week's disappointing effort. Alternatively, a repeat of his previous performance at the Masters, or earlier efforts in Qatar and Dubai, would probably win this event by at least 5 shots. In the absence of alternatives, I must have a saver. The one obvious contender who its hard to make a case against is Fasth. Unlike most of the others, he swerved the Far East and hasn't played since a top-10 in Portugal which was better than the result suggests. Niclas often goes well in this part of the world, and is overdue a victory. The course is perfectly suitable, as he usually plays very well in the wind.

Though his price is not very reflective of the fact he has yet to win on Tour, I can't see JOSE-MANUEL LARA being too far away at this level on home turf at 33/1. Lara must surely win, or at least challenge strongly soon. His game from tee to green is too consistent not to. This course, along with home support, should play right to his strengths. I have to be honest and say it would come as no shock whatsoever to me if a huge priced winner popped up. Looking through the field at the 66/1 - 150/1 section though, none of them make any particular appeal, so instead I'm having one small, speculative punt on 250/1 shot FREDERICK WIDMARK. As I've said before, this Swede is one of the better recruits from the Challenge Tour, and he knows how to win when in contention. Also in his favour is a good record over the years in the Meditteranean region.

The US Tour event is much more attractive from a stars point of view, with Phil Mickelson making his first appearance since winning the Masters, along with Retief Goosen. Once you get beyond those two, out of form David Toms, Chris Dimarco and Padraig Harrington, there isn't a great deal of strength in depth. Stuart Appleby bids to follow up on last weekend's facile success, but again the rarity of back to back winners becomes an issue. Stephen Ames has very solid claims but two world-class efforts at Sawgrass and Augusta means Ames is at least half the odds than he would have been if this were played a month ago.

Mickelson is the man I just can't get right. For the many years when he seemed to possess no golfing brain whatsoever, opposing Lefty on hard courses and the climaxes to Major championships had become a decent source of regular income. I have a theory that, connected in some way to the years of massive hostility directed from me towards my television screen when he was playing, now Phil is the real deal circumstances will conspire to prevent me from winning anything on him. I'll say clearly what I've said time and again for the last 2 years. Now he has learnt the art of self-control and matured as a golfer, Mickelson is pretty much level with Tiger Woods. I had him lined up for a bet at Augusta for months when double-figure prices were widely available, but a runaway win at the Bellsouth Classic put paid to that plan. There seems little point in chasing losses at less than 4/1, when he will also be the subject of disproportionate crowd and media attention at English Turn this week.

Better value lies in trying to find some each-way value. I'd much rather take 20/1 about a top-five place on FREDDY JACOBSEN for instance. We're still waiting for the Swede to make the expected big impact in the States that he promised in his last year in Europe and a handful of US events. I'm sure it will happen soon as Jacobsen certainly possesses the ability. English Turn, with its emphasis on quality iron play, looks one of the most likely venues for such an emergence so I'm prepared to overlook a bad week in Houston and no previous course experience. Three of Freddie's last five efforts have been solid enough so he's not in bad form and believe me, once he wins we will not see 80/1 again in an event of this stature for a long time.
Similarly, 40/1 looks decent each-way value for the promising ZACH JOHNSON. A multiple winner on the Nationwide Tour, and a winner in his rookie season on the PGA Tour, Zach is long overdue. His 2006 form is rock solid, with the highlights being a distant runner-up to Mickelson at Sugarloaf, and 3rd place at the World Matchplay. On each occasion, Johnson has impressed with his accuracy and iron play, useful qualities here. In fact, speaking ahead, if Zach remains in consistent form, he is a certainty to be included in my staking plan for next month's US Open.

The other European who I am slowly running out of patience with is JUSTIN ROSE. Rose looked a certain winner in 2006 on the evidence of last summer, and of course from Euro Tour form that now seems age-old. Rose was a very impressive 5th on his debut at English Turn last year, so should fancy his chances. Again, we've got to overlook three consecutive poor efforts in his last three events, but the previous top-10 at Bay Hill suggests not everything is wrong with Justin's game at the moment. At 80/1, I can't afford to leave him out.

SPANISH OPEN

2pts ew NICLAS FASTH @ 20/1 (BETFRED, PADDY POWER, VICTOR CHANDLER)
2pts ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts win MIGUEL-ANGEL JIMINEZ @ 10/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 11/1 ON BETFAIR)
0.5pts ew FREDERICK WIDMARK @ 250/1(SKYBET, VICTOR CHANDLER)

ZURICH CLASSIC OF NEW ORLEANS

1.5pts ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew FREDERICK JACOBSEN @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE, 80/1 WITH LADBROKES)
1pt ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 80/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-125.5pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

Stick with Singh at new Houston venue

2006-04-19T04:15:00.000-07:00

Guesswork is once again the order of the day with another brand new course on show for the Shell Houston Open. David Toms was a consultant involved in its design but its far from clear he's done himself any favours with the course measuring a mammoth 7457 yards. Driving distance and greens in regulations look like the important stats, as there are plenty of hazards around. Everything therefore seems to favour clear market leader VIJAY SINGH, who bids for his fourth win in the last five runnings of the event.

Despite remaining a model of consistency, and being seen to best advantage on tough courses, 9/2 does look rather short at first for a player who hasn't won yet this year but looking down the field its hard to see who's going to beat him. Toms and Mike Weir don't look long enough off the tee, Irish raiders Padraig Harrington and Darren Clarke haven't shown nearly enough to warrant support in the States. Bearing in mind his extra motivation, and the fact that even on bad weeks in stronger company Vijay is clear odds-on to make the top-10, the Fijian has to be included in the staking plan, though perhaps the best value is in finding outsiders whose place terms are more than double his win odds.

It was a timely reminder of the strength in depth of the PGA Tour that a serious long-term prospect Aaron Baddeley could win his maiden event at huge odds, being universally overlooked by tipsters on a course that in hindsight played right to his strengths. Besides Singh, I suspect the most likely winner will be one of the many up and coming youngsters of Tour newcomers in opposition. Consistent Lucas Glover caught my attention but his odds are far too short for someone who, though clearly decent, doesn't strike me as a future Major winner. Monster hitting Bubba Watson could come into it if he can find enough fairways but for me the best prospect of the lot is Colombian CAMILIO VILLEGAS. This guy had looked a serious prospect on the Nationwide Tour and in the odd event in Australasia, but nobody expected him to make such a quick impact at the highest level. To come 3rd in the TPC at Sawgrass is quite a feat for a rookie, but I was even more impressed by his showing as runner-up to Tiger at Doral. On a similarly long course, Villegas traded blows with the world's greatest on equal terms and most importantly, never looked like shirking under pressure.

Mansfield's GREG OWEN has nowhere near the long-term potential of Villegas, but he has taken to the PGA Tour like a duck to water and warrants respect on tough courses. During an average career in Europe, Owen was always a class act from tee to green, and his stats in America confirm nothing has changed. 4 of his last 5 starts over here have been rock-solid efforts, so he must have each-way chances amongst a slightly weaker field on a course that suits.

The course being used for this week's BMW Asian Open in Thailand is also a long one, and previous history here suggests the Europeans will dominate. There was a considerably stronger European contingent set to play here, until Luke Donald and David Howell pulled out. Of those remaining, although I'm sure there will be a couple of big-priced players on the leaderboard, I've narrowed the likely winner down to 7. Of those 7, Henrik Stenson and Miguel-Angel Jiminez are left out on the basis of their price. Jiminez won here in 2004 and played well at Augusta, but all of this is factored into his price. 12/1 about Stenson in such company could look absolutely huge in a few months if the talented Swede gets back on track, but he's now put in three poor shows in succession.

There's no doubt in my mind who the best value is, England's PAUL CASEY. Ignore a poor effort here last year as his game was in turmoil, because this winter in Asia he has been by far the most consistent player with 1 win and 3 top-10s from five starts. Casey was right in the hunt again on Sunday until a poorly timed water visit on the back 9. He will relish the length of the course and could do some serious damage on the par-5s. Very similar comments apply to NICK DOUGHERTY, whose price is surprisingly big at 22/1. Certainly he hasn't looked half the player of Jiminez in recent months, though its clear he does owe me a few quid as I've probably tipped him a dozen times in the last year. With golf betting, you have to remain loyal when you think a player is a winner waiting to happen as the rewards will come eventually, and at nice odds.

These two make up half the team of IG's English Hotshots, which looks a very cheap buy at 34. The other two, David Lynn and Simon Dyson, both have claims as long as they can overcome psycholigical demons. Lynn from a very poor finish when primed to win at the weekend, and Dyson from this venue 2 years ago when he blew a six-shot lead on the final day. Otherwise, there's no reason to suggest they can't at least help towards getting the cut bonus, with Dougherty and Casey doing the main scoring.

For my other two outright selections, I'm choosing mainland European players. THOMAS BJORN is always a threat in this part of the world. True, you never know if this fragile character is about to self-implode but Bjorn is world-class on his day and oozes confidence in Asia. Recent form is better than it first appears from form figures too. He finished with a cracking 69 at Augusta to finish 32nd, with only Jiminez from this field ahead of him, and prior to that had been in contention at Sawgrass for the first two days. Finally, RAPHAEL JACQUELIN looks primed for a big week after working off some rust in his game with a solid down the field effort in China. Jacquelin is another who always fancies his chances in these co-sanctioned Asian events, and must be considered at 40/1.

BMW ASIAN OPEN

3pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 14/1 (BLUESQ, CORALS)
2pts ew THOMAS BJORN @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 22/1 (SKYBET)
1.5pts ew RAPHAEL JACQUELIN @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

BUY ENGLISH HOTSHOTS @ 34 (IGSPORT)

SHELL HOUSTON OPEN

6pts win VIJAY SINGH @ 9/2 (STAN JAMES, VCBET)
1.5pts ew CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew GREG OWEN @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-101pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

N.B. ALEX CEJKA WAS A NON-RUNNER LAST WEEK

Ogilvy can master Harbour Town Links

2006-04-12T06:45:00.000-07:00

Firstly, I must apologise for this message being sent out a day later than usual. After a marathon trading day on Sunday after the Masters suffered rain delays, and with 17 days of hardcore snooker trading ahead, I needed a couple of days off. Inevitably, this does mean I've missed the best prices about some of the main contenders.

There are two tournaments this week, yet another overnight job from China and the regular PGA Tour fixture at Harbour Town Links, the Heritage Classic. As you can probably tell, I'm not exactly brimming with enthusiasm about the Volvo China Open, which is played on a brand new Nick Faldo designed course so we have no previous form to work from. My strategy of backing the favourites against a weak field in such events has had no luck at all recently, with NICK DOUGHERTY and David Howell blowing winning positions. This week's class acts are Dougherty, HENRIK STENSON and Paul Casey.

With no course form, I'm reliant on others like the Racing Post's Jeremy Chapman to describe the course characteristics. He thinks it will be a thinking man's golf course and one might presume that Faldo would design such a course. From that perspective, it doesn't seem particularly like the sort of course that a huge-hitting birdie machine like Casey would excel at, but he still commands enormous respect due to a terrific record in this part of the world. Stenson has to bounce back from two missed cuts amongst immeasurably superior fields at the Masters and Bellsouth Classic, but his form over the last year is so superior to anyone else in the field that he just has to enter calculations as at least a saver. At the best price of three, Dougherty has to be backed again as surely another win is around the corner. Nick may also benefit from missing the Masters last week, so there's no reason why he won't continue his excellent recent form.

Chapman also has it right, I think, about ALEX CEJKA, but because he has tipped him I'm afraid the price has shortened from 50/1 to 40/1. No matter, the German is always a threat at this level and still looks a cracking each-way bet.

In contrast, the American event is an absolute cracker - one of the few occasions on the PGA Tour where they play a links course. Naturally, this suits those who have refined the art of links golf while simultaneously meaning we can write off several players.

No better example of the importance of course form is DAVIS LOVE, whose record at Harbour Town is nothing short of amazing. DL3 has won this event five time, with four top-5 finishes and three other top-10s! Many pundits question whether Love is a player in terminal decline, but I'm not convinced. True, he's not such an obvious Major contender anymore, but he is still capable of world class golf. Less than 2 months ago, Love won 5 matches before succumbing in the World Matchplay final. 3 weeks ago, he opened up with a brilliant 65 at Sawgrass, only to miss the cut in shocking style. I place that disaster down to a disappointing temperamental reaction on a tough day rather than any evidence of him suddenly being a bad golfer, so it doesn't deter me from a bet back on his favourite course, where I'm sure Davis is determined to add to that awesome record.

Love's conquerer that day, GEOFF OGILVY, is surprisingly still available at 28/1 as it seems nobody else has tipped him. I've been going on about Ogilvy for about 5 years now without ever really profitting from his success but perhaps this is the week. Lets look at Ogilvy's form in the last year. As well as the career highlight WGC victory, he won his first PGA Tour event last summer, and his last three Major performances have been 5th at the British Open, 6th at the USPGA and another rock solid 16th at Augusta at the weekend. Straight after the win at La Costa, Geoff followed up with 2nd place at the Honda Classic. As an Aussie, he's comfortable with this sort of links golf and nearly won this event two years ago when a far less confident player than now.

Several other players look worth opposing after the Masters. Ernie Els is favourite, and is the best links player of them all, but struggled badly on Sunday and is apparently still suffering some negative reaction from the knee injury. Clearly, he can't be backed with confidence so soon after playing 27 holes badly on the same day. Chad Campbell has little form here, and might well suffer an immediate reaction to four days right in contention at Augusta. Stewart Cink has plenty of form here and just had his best weekend in ages, but his price is ridiculously short on all other recent form. Jose Maria Olazabal has now been right in the thick of it for three consecutive weeks and may need a rest.

Then there are players who must be fancied on this course but are such rare winners that we're better off backing them in speciality bets. Nick O'Hern and Scott Verplank fit this definition. Bay Hill winner Rod Pampling is also in fine form, but his price is nothing to get excited about. Under the circumstances, the man to beat this week is probably JIM FURYK. He has exactly the right profile of a Heritage winner, and seems to be getting better with every year, finishing second last year without ever threatening to win. Furyk must rate an each-way saver.

Finally, this looks a great opportunity for JUSTIN ROSE to finally land his first PGA Tour victory. A cracking links player famous for his exploits in the British Open as an amateur, Rose finished 7th on his course debut two years ago. 8th place three starts ago at Bay Hill was a fine effort, so he can be forgiven two missed cuts at Sawgrass and Sugarloaf since.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

VOLVO CHINA OPEN

3pts ew NICK DOUGHERTY @ 14/1 (BETDIRECT, LADBROKES, SKYBET)
4pts win HENRIK STENSON @ 15/2 (SKYBET)
1pt ew ALEX CEJKA @ 40/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

VERIZON HERITAGE CLASSIC

3pts ew GEOFF OGILVY @ 28/1 (STAN JAMES, BETFRED)
2pts ew DAVIS LOVE @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew JIM FURYK @ 14/1 (TOTE)
1pt ew JUSTIN ROSE @ 100/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-84pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

One last chance for 'On Fire' Maguire

2006-04-10T02:40:00.000-07:00

One of my favourite sporting and gambling events of the year, the 888.com World Snooker Championship, starts at Sheffield on Saturday. Its hard to overstate the importance of the next 17 days for snooker fans, as these days we are deprived for all but about 9 weeks of the year. As the status of snooker has declined in recent years, perversely it has become more unpredictable and therefore entertaining. Long gone are the days of facile Davis or Hendry wins as most tournaments are wide-open affairs, a point hammered home last year when 150/1 shot Shaun Murphy became the first unseeded winner since 1979.

The indifferent form of so many top players this season means such outsiders cannot be ruled out. In fact, as far as betting on the outright market is concerned, the route to profit might actually not involve finding the winner. The draw is so lop-sided that it should pay to follow some decent priced players who have fairly straightforward tasks to reach the latter stages, before having the necessary savers at that time. For example the two players most likely to win the event, Ronnie O'Sullivan and John Higgins, are scheduled to meet as early as the quarter-final, presuming Higgins gets past double world champ Mark Williams, and thats before we estimate the chances of a dangerous floater like Ryan Day who also shares this top-quality quarter. The most sensible thing to do in the circumstances is leave them to carve each other up, while focussing on other areas of the draw.

The weakest quarter is probably the top section containing defending champion Murphy. Despite generally retaining cracking form all season, that triumph remains Murphy's only ranking title, and he has history against him here as no player has ever successfully defended their first title at the Crucible. His prohibitive odds reflect an apparently straightforward opening couple of matches against James Wattana, and then Steve Davis or Andy Hicks. At his best, Murphy would have little trouble with those games, but I can see him surrendering the championship in a potentially epic quarter final against 2001 champion PETER EBDON. I'm perfectly happy to overlook some disappointing results for Ebdon this year, as he comes right into his own over these longer, pressure cooker matches. As clearly the second best player in this quarter, he makes plenty of each-way appeal at 33/1, particularly with place terms of half the odds to reach the final.

Ebdon's second-round opponent will be the winner of the first week's most interesting matches - JIMMY WHITE versus David Gray. Both players need to win this match to stay in the top-32, which in Jimmy's case practically means saving his career. Both have been woefully out of form, but I strongly fancy White to produce the goods now it is desperately required. Year after year, Jimmy comes to the Crucible and at least puts up a decent showing for the fans in his opening match. I've no doubt he will be prepared for the match, which is usually enough for a natural talent like White to fend off limited players. Also, I understand these two have been practice partners over the years, and White holds a big psychological edge. There's a part of me that wants to back the Whirlwind each-way at 150/1 as he could improve as the tournament goes on, but its safer to back the first round match and take it from there.

So, I reckon either Murphy, Ebdon or at a push, White, will reach the semis where they will face the winner of another very tough quarter to call. Ken Doherty, three times a finalist here, is probably the one to beat here on the basis of a very consistent season, but the draw is far from easy. The Irishman's first match is against the most dangerous non-seed, Barry Hawkins, and then is scheduled to play another Crucible specialist, Matthew Stevens in the last-16. Again, the best strategy is to avoid these players until we know who has emerged. Instead, for my second selection in the top-half of the draw, I've just got to stay loyal to STEPHEN MAGUIRE. As I write this, I can hear the laughter of snooker afficionados that anybody could tip Maguire after such a poor season, but there is some method behind my madness.

The last time I tipped Maguire, at the Benson and Hedges Masters, he responded by producing arguably the most abject display by a professional player in a live match, losing 6-0 to an out-of-sorts Stephen Lee and registering a highest break of 23. His form in the Premier League was equally dire, and there was another first-round defeat in the last event in China. But lets rewind one year. Maguire came to the Crucible last year provisionally No.3 in the world and defending UK champ, tipped by everyone to be World No 1 sooner or later. He then lost a classic opener 10-9 to O'Sullivan, but left with a lofty reputation very much intact. I was, and still am, convinced that when in form there is no more devastating break-builder alive. Amongst the various losses this year, there have been some glimpses of form. He looked set for a big run at the UK before, in Maguire's words, "Steve Davis played like God" to win the last three frames. In Malta too, he looked in good nick only to lose the deciding frame of a fine match to Doherty. I'm hoping that Maguire is well prepared for Sheffield, because if he brings his A game, he has two fairly easy matches in which to find some form and confidence before taking on the big guns. It can only be speculative, and cannot really be justified from a value perspective, but I still recommend an interest at 16/1.

There is another uncompetitive quarter in the bottom-half of the draw, containing Stephen Hendry, GRAEME DOTT, NEIL ROBERTSON, ALI CARTER and Stephen Lee, along with three massive outsiders. Needless to say, Hendry dominates the market here but is well worth taking on. Though the greatest player ever to pick up a cue still retains tremendous break-building ability on his day, in virtually every tournament nowadays he seems to have one awful match which he loses. My suspicion is that he just doesn't have the patience for long-drawn out, tactical matches any more, and could definitely struggle if such a match develops over 25 frames. Hendry and Dott are both red-hot favourites for their opening matches so are likely to meet in the second round. Dott, though ultimately a limited player, is a very gritty competitor who will test Hendry and showed two years ago how these longer matches suit him when he reached the final here.

Lee is also worth opposing in my view, despite a recent victory in the Wales Open. The draw opened up for him there, and I wasn't convinced Lee played that much better than the other recent tournaments he'd failed in. I've fallen for the trap of backing Lee at the Crucible before, only to see him buckle under the pressure as his stamina wilts. By backing the other three players in this section, we're taking combined odds of over 20/1 to win and 10/1 to reach the final. The place price in particular will look huge value should any of them get past Hendry and Lee to reach the semis. The most likely of the trio is Robertson, a future champion for sure though still probably a bit inexperienced. He should win his first round match against Paul Hunter, who is still battling cancer. Carter is a player that has consistently flattered to deceive, but if he can beat Lee in the opener I could see him at last reaching the latter stages of a big event. Last year, Ali played very well in both of his matches, losing the second one to O'Sullivan in unbeatable form so might be another player better suited to the longer format.

And so what of the Rocket, and the other principles? Ronnie's form has been generally poor this season, mostly down to obvious disinterest but he also injured his hand before the Welsh Open. At Wembley, he showed that when in the mood he is still far too good for most opponents but not apparently for John Higgins, who denied him in a classic final. Higgins is without doubt the player of the year, and strikes me as the most likely winner. The reason I simply cannot advise him at odds of 4/1 is that if you backed Higgins match by match in a running accumulator, it would pay probably double those odds. In fact, if he were to draw Mark Selby, Mark Williams, Ronnie, Hendry and then Murphy, the odds of the running accumulator would pay something like 12/1.If you can be bothered laying out money and trading between markets on the exchanges, there's probably some free money here. If not, best to back the weak sections now before re-assessing at the quarter and semi final stages.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

4pts win STEPHEN MAGUIRE @ 16/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew PETER EBDON @ 33/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew GRAEME DOTT @ 80/1 (TOTE)
2pts ew NEIL ROBERTSON @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew ALASTAIR CARTER @ 100/1 (LADBROKES, STAN JAMES)

1ST ROUND MATCH

10pts JIMMY WHITE TO BEAT DAVID GRAY @ EVS (SKYBET)

New Sports Betting Advisory Service

2006-04-10T02:38:00.000-07:00

Back Ernie to end Masters jinx

2006-04-04T04:13:00.000-07:00

Officially, the first Major of the season starts this Thursday at Augusta, but for me the US Masters is nowhere nearly as eagerly anticipated as the unofficial 5th Major that took place at Sawgrass a fortnight ago. I appreciate there are many golfing connoisseurs out there who would consider this to be sacrilege but ultimately, I'm a gambler, and I would rather see the lead change 19 times involving 8 players in the same round as we saw on the Saturday of Sawgrass. The chances of anything like that at Augusta are remote to say the least. The Masters is without doubt the Major where the difference between the big-hitting elite players and the rest is most profound. Year in year out, this is dominated by the big 5, and betting over the weekend can be a bit dull as there are rarely more than two or three players seriously in contention on the last day (though it does happen occasionally).

Consider the stats of the big 5 at Augusta. Tiger Woods bids for a 5th Green Jacket in 10 years. Phil Mickelson has 7 consecutive top-10s here, including one win and four 3rd placings. VIJAY SINGH has four top-7 finishes from 5 starts since winning in 2000. ERNIE ELS has yet to win but prior to a poor showing in 2005, had finished in the top 6 five years in succession. RETIEF GOOSEN hates the place in comparison, having only finished 2nd, 3rd and 13th twice in the last four years! Whats more, their dominance looks likely to be exaggerated further this year due to the considerable lengthening of an already long course. The message to punters is clear. Concentrate all your attention in the outright market on selections from these 5 players, and leave any other fancies to the usual wide array of interesting speciality markets where they don't have to take on all the superstars.

So who to pick from this elite? Obviously Tiger is a worthy favourite at his second home and better value than his skinny odds look at first glance. If you'd taken 7/2 about him every year since he turned pro in 1997, you'd be showing a handy profit. In 2005, he was back to his awesome best in the Majors, and despite persistent inaccuracy off the tee, Woods has won 3 times already this year on courses that suit his game. But then there is the added complication caused by his father's terminal illness, which might impact on Tiger's focus. Phil Mickelson has a blindingly obvious chance after an amazing performance at Sugarloaf over the weekend, but his price is now predictably in freefall with 13/2 the best left. Considering their fine course records, I'd prefer to back the other three each-way at place terms that pay the equivalent of Tiger's win odds.

Els is in danger of surpassing Greg Norman's unenviable tag of being the best player never to win a Masters. I don't think there was a person alive who didn't assume Ernie was at least guaranteed a play-off when he signed his card two years ago, before Mickelson started that miraculous birdie blitz to break his heart again. However, he did nothing badly wrong on any of his many near-misses here and I remain confident the Big Easy has at least a couple more Majors left in him. He hasn't started at these kind of odds at Augusta for years, based on an average set of finishes since returning to the PGA Tour after injury. Alternatively though, he only went down in a play-off to Woods in Dubai, and by a shot at Fancourt to Goosen. I also thought for a brief moment that he was going to nick the Players Championship recently when he shot up the leaderboard on the final day. It was only a couple of disasters chasing pins over those last few treacherous holes that sent him back to 8th place but he looked to be right back in the groove. A week off since to prepare won't have done any harm either, compared to Mickelson who might have trouble keeping the run going for a second week.

Goosen's chance is extremely obvious and surely better than his odds of 12/1 imply. He has increasingly looked a natural for Augusta in the last few years and comes here in fine form. He played brilliantly for the last 63 holes at Sawgrass but can hardly be criticised for not being able to catch the runaway winner, and followed up with a rock-solid fourth place. Goose seems to be a permanent feature on the leaderboard at all the Majors nowadays, and 3/1 for the top-5 finish looks particularly good. As for Vijay, we just have to hope for a decent putting week. It seems as if the Fijian has gone off the boil because he hasn't won for a while, but he still has eight top-10 finishes from his last 11 tournaments, having never finished lower than 24th. With that consistency on a course where his long-hitting advantage is accentuated, I just can't see him being far away and a 2nd Green Jacket is perfectly feasible.

And so to the speciality markets. The Masters is one of the best events of the year for these, as I can't think of a single course where previous course form is so important. Some players just never take to the heavily contoured, lightning fast greens, or aren't long enough off the tee, or just aren't good enough iron players. Augusta really seems to get to some players. On the other hand, aside the principles, the same old faces frequent the top-20 most years. Previous winners tend to build up a bank of course form, even late in their careers such as Jose-Maria Olazabal, who has big claims of a third Green Jacket, and even Bernhard Langer got into the thick of it here 2 years ago.

I was going to back ANGEL CABRERA for the outright at 100/1 but on reflection 40/1 without the big 5 looks much better value. Betfred, Skybet and Betfair have a market for this at the moment but others may well follow. The Duck has always looked the kind of player to do well here, with his great length off the tee and fine touch around the greens. Argentina's finest did manage three consecutive top-15s from 2001-2003, and could come into his own now the course has been lengthened. He also looks a cracking bet to beat Robert Allenby in a 72-hole match bet with Hills as Allenby has never prospered here in several visits. Again in this market, it should pay to stick with the obvious as LUKE DONALD looks rock-solid each-way value at 14/1. I have great doubts that Donald will ever win at Augusta, because he will always have to concede a lot of length off the tee to the biggest hitters. But to come 3rd on his debut here last year was a magnificent effort, and showed that his precision irons are exactly what is required on these greens. I think Luke looks a banker for the top-10 here, but am much happier taking 14/1 against the field than 33/1 against Tiger and co, of whom I'm sure one will finish ahead of England's best chance.

The bet of the week though has to be PAUL MCGINLEY to beat Fred Funk over 72 holes at 9/10 with Hills. I don't know why they've paired these two, as Funk has a catastrophic record at Augusta. The straightest hitter on tour is also one of the shortest, a death knell at Augusta at the best of times and even more so now. In eight visits, he's missed five cuts, with one 17th position the only noteworthy effort. McGinley finished a creditable 18th on his debut and has improved lots since. I quietly fancy McGinley to sneak into the fringes of contention, so he simply must be backed here in a bet that he might only need make the cut to win.

A couple of Betfred's groups don't look like they'll take much winning either. Group F contains serial Augusta failures Allenby, Rory Sabbatini and Michael Campbell, along with Tim Clark and KJ CHOI. Preference here has to be for the Korean, whose course form reads a solid 15th, 3rd and 33rd. Group H looks even weaker with Colin Montgomerie, Justin Leonard and Stewart Cink all highly unlikely to figure as is debutant Lucas Glover. ROD PAMPLING stands out in this company. There is a vague correlation between form at Augusta and Bay Hill, scene of Pampling's recent breakthrough victory. That win could represent a real turning point in the career of this previously under-achieving Aussie, who finished a highly impressive 5th on his Masters debut last year. Pampling must also be backed at 8/1 for a top-10 finish and in a 72 hole match bet against his compatriot Stuart Appleby, who has yet to make the top-20 here in nine visits.

Only a late bogey cost us a nice payout on TOM LEHMAN at Sawgrass on both the top-10 and top American without Tiger markets. Once again, the US Ryder Cup captain has been underestimated at a venue where he has prospered in the past. I recommend backing Tom in both markets at 9/1 and 40/1 respectively. It would have been better if the bookies had created a "Top American w/o Tiger and Mickelson" market, as Lefty will take the world of beating in this market. Nevertheless, once you get past Phil there isn't that much to beat. The most likely challenger for me is CHAD CAMPBELL who is enjoying his best year to date with a series of consistent performances including a win at the Bob Hope Classic. Augusta definitely takes some learning, so it was a positive to see Chad improve on two missed cuts on his first two visits with 17th place last year. There's no reason why he should't be suited by Augusta so a big run is expected.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

US MASTERS

OUTRIGHT

3pts ew ERNIE ELS @ 12/1 (HILLS, STAN JAMES, SPORTING ODDS)
3pts ew RETIEF GOOSEN @ 12/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
3pts ew VIJAY SINGH @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

BETTING WITHOUT BIG 5

1.5pts ew ANGEL CABRERA @ 40/1 (BETFRED, SKYBET)
2pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 14/1 (BETFRED)

TOP AMERICAN WITHOUT WOODS

1pt ew CHAD CAMPBELL @ 25/1 (LADBROKES)
1pt ew TOM LEHMAN @ 40/1 (LADBROKES, TOTE)

72-HOLE MATCH BETS

22pts PAUL MCGINLEY @ 10/11 (VS FRED FUNK) (HILLS)
11pts ANGEL CABRERA @ 10/11 (VS ROBERT ALLENBY) (HILLS)
11pts ROD PAMPLING @ 10/11 (VS STUART APPLEBY) (HILLS)

72-HOLE GROUP BETS

4pts KJ CHOI TO WIN GROUP F @ 7/2 (BETFRED)
3pts ROD PAMPLING TO WIN GROUP H @ 10/3 (BETFRED)

TOP 10 FINISH

2pts ROD PAMPLING @ 8/1 (SKYBET, PADDY POWER, STAN JAMES)
1pt TOM LEHMAN @ 9/1 (PADDY POWER, BETFAIR)

2006 STATS: (-117pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

Harrington set for boost ahead of Augusta

2006-03-28T14:52:00.000-08:00

This is always one of the trickiest weeks of the year for golf punters, sandwiched between the Players' Championship and the forthcoming US Masters. A world-class field always assemble at TPC Sugarloaf for the Bellsouth Classic, but there's always half a concern that players' minds are elsewhere. There's probably no good justification for that as this week's market leaders, Retief Goosen and Phil Mickelson have won the event three times in the last six years. The picture is further clouded though, by the fact that so many of the field had to endure the draining, nerve-racking experience of windy Sawgrass and the literally impossible greens we witnessed over the weekend.

Just what damage that experience might have had on some players' short-term confidence is anyone's guess. Aaron Oberholser, for instance, would have been a certain selection of mine had he not just hit 81 on Sunday, having led the tournament on his own on the 17th tee on Saturday. Goosen is another player I fear enormously here, on a course tailor-made for him and following a superb last 63 holes at Sawgrass. I'm almost certain to back Goose next week at Augusta but single-figure odds are just too short on this occasion. A safer strategy must be to side with players who would come into calculations anyway but are a little fresher having missed those two final rounds.

Conditions at Sugarloaf, should the wind blow as expected, tend to favour players used to chipping and putting on exposed greens. Naturally, the British, Irish and Australian players raised on such courses often come into their own here. Nobody fits the identikit of a Sugarloaf winner more than PADRAIG HARRINGTON, as two top-10s from three visits testifies. Pod also has a history of winning or being in contention the week before a Major, that fits a theory I have about him. Renowned for his work ethic on the range, Harrington has a tendency to peak just in time for the big event, only to get himself agitated at key moments in the Majors. The week before, though, we often see him relaxed and in peak-form. Missing the cut at Sawgrass, where he must have fancied his chances, may now work in his favour.

Moderate recent form can be the only justification for the 66/1 available on course specialist STEWART CINK. Cink clearly relishes the demands of Sugarloaf, having finished in the top-10 six times in the last 8 years. The last few weeks have been disappointing, but he had three top-15s at the start of the season. I'm sure we'll see a different player this week, on probably his best opportunity of the year. I've also got to include MATTHEW GOGGIN, who I've mentioned a couple of times this year at huge odds. A fortnight ago, when I'd overlooked him for the Honda Classic, the young Aussie only just missed out on the places and conditions aren't too dissimilar this week. Certainly, his form on windy, exposed Australian courses suggests he will go well this week so, aside a small each-way bet at 200/1 I suggest Goggin is worth a closer look for 2-balls and spreads.

The European Tour event, the Algarve Open, looks an absolute minefield for punters. A moderate field is headed by Nick Dougherty, who represents the class in the field along with Niclas Fasth and Bradley Dredge. None of those look particularly favoured by the short, narrow layout and I have a strong suspicion this could be won by a rank outsider.

Just a few small bets at decent prices looks the order of the day then. A fair strategy in this part of the world is to look for players from the region, who might feel more comfortable with the conditions, and three of my four selections are from Southern Europe. Firstly, though, England's DAVID LYNN looks the most likely player from the market leaders to produce his best form. Lynn has become a model of consistency lately with nine consecutive top-27 finishes, often in fields of greater depths. His chance looks extremely obvious on a course that he finished 5th 2 years ago.

Its high time Spain's JOSE-MANUEL LARA won again on the European Tour, with only a small win 8 years ago to his name. Much like Lynn, Lara is one of the most consistent players around without threatening to win nearly often enough. Only a few months ago, Lara finished 2nd and 6th in consecutive weeks in Spain. Back now in his favourite part of the world, and having finished close 9th here in 2004, 50/1 looks a nice price for a player bound to be there or thereabouts come the weekend.

I was also very surprised to see Lara's countryman GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO available at three figures back in Southern Europe. Rookie of the Year in 2005, this prodigy has been likened in some (excitable) quarters to a young Seve Ballesteros. Whatever the merits of that comparison, he has looked an exciting prospect in similar standard European Tour events, most notably when showing a mature temperament to win the Dutch Open. That win came at Hilversum, a short, narrow course not entirely dissimilar to Le Meridien Penina. Finally, have a small each-way bet on Italian EMANUELLE CANONICA. I never thought I'd see the day I'd tip this guy as he'd always looked a bottler but he put all that behind him with victory in last season's Italian Open. Canonica showed a liking for this place with consecutive top-10s on his last two visits, and has some good recent form with 9th place behind Tiger and co in Dubai.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

ALGARVE OPEN

1pt ew DAVID LYNN @ 28/1 (SKYBET, BET365)
1pt ew JOSE-MANUEL LARA @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
0.5pts ew GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO @ 100/1 (LADBROKES, CORALS)
0.5pts ew EMANUELLE CANONICA @ 80/1 (BETDIRECT, BET365)

BELLSOUTH CLASSIC

1pt ew PADRAIG HARRINGTON @ 25/1 (SPORTING ODDS, SKYBET)
1pt ew STEWART CINK @ 66/1 (HILLS, LADBROKES, BET DIRECT)
0.5pts ew MATTHEW GOGGIN @ 200/1 (SPORTING ODDS)

2006 STATS: (-106pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

TPC Sawgrass Preview

2006-03-22T00:25:00.000-08:00

Hopefully this week offers a chance to reverse my poor recent form as the Players' Championship at Sawgrass is one of my three favourite events of the year. Widely known as the 5th Major, from next year this will have an even higher profile as it is moved to May. From a betting perspective, the unique demands of this stadium course usually offers more opportunities than the predictable Masters or the guessing game known as the USPGA. Players seem to either love or hate Sawgrass, with its tight rough, fast greens and stomach-churning finish. The island par-3 17th hole and long, water-threatened 18th represents the toughest finish in golf, with no lead absolutely certain to be enough as the finale approaches. Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and Retief Goosen have never looked like winning here while Vijay Singh's record is patchy at best. Tiger Woods did win and come 2nd here when at his absolute peak, but has generally struggled and will need to be much more accurate than he has generally been of late to contend.

I doubt there's a course better suited to the talents of rising British star LUKE DONALD. Luke looks every inch a world class player nowadays, but on many courses a worry remains that he doesn't have the length off the tee that nearly all the other leading players possess. At Sawgrass, however, length is pretty much irrelevant compared to keeping the ball in play and away from the many hazards so with his ultra-consistent long game I expect Donald to build up a bank of high finishes in the 5th Major over the years. Despite landing a win in the invitational Target Challenge just before Christmas, victory in the Honda Classic a fortnight ago was a pivotal moment in his short career, as it showed he can win a top class event from the front after a few missed chances. Leading going into the final round here last year, I thought he lost nothing in defeat in one of the most exciting finishes of 2005.

Another player right in the thick of it last year was 2004 winner ADAM SCOTT. Scott was bidding for a very unlikely defence on that occasion in an event where defending champions have a dire record, but only lost his chance on the 71st hole. Despite a disappointing effort last week, I'm sticking with him as he looks far more likely to contend than nearly all the similarly or shorter priced contenders. The young Aussie also rates my best match bet of the week against David Toms, who hasn't finished higher than 12th in his last ten Sawgrass visits.

Much of the best value lies in the speciality markets this week. The Players' Championship is generally won by a class act, so there's a strong argument for choosing from amongst the top players in the outright market, but from further down the list, the same names appear in the top-10 and top-20 year after year. I have a shortlist of six Americans likely to go well but its best to play all of them in the top American market where we needn't take on either of the main selections. I'd be very disappointed to not get at least one place.

In particular two prices stand out here, TOM LEHMAN at 50/1 and JERRY KELLY at 80/1. US Ryder Cup captain Lehman has every chance of making his own team as a player and he holds a superb record on this course. I was amazed to get 80/1 on him for the same market last year when he tied for second with Donald and SCOTT VERPLANK. Arguably Lehman is in better form this time around and looks probably double the correct price here.

Accurate Kelly is another course specialist, with three top-11 finishes in five years. He certainly comes into the event in the best form for a long while, finishing 2nd and 7th in consecutive weeks before a missed cut at Bay Hill. I would have advised Kelly at 125/1 for the outright if it wasn't for the better value 80/1 for top American. Ultra-consistent Verplank must also be worth an interest here at 20/1 when he's only 33/1 against the whole field. Making up my US team are CHAD CAMPBELL, ZACH JOHNSON and DAVIS LOVE. Love's chance is obvious having twice won the event and shown his best form for a long while recently when reaching the World Matchplay final. Campbell has only the one good Sawgrass showing to his name, but plays hard courses well and has been much more consistent all year. As for Johnson, this accurate player looks made for Sawgrass and looked as likely a winner as anyone for a long way last year. He's come into form at just the right time with top efforts at the Matchplay and Ford Championship.

Several of these players represent good value for match bets. Campbell must be backed to beat Chris Dimarco on the well used horses for courses argument. As much as my respect for Dimarco has grown lately, I don't expect him to do anything this week on a course where he's never made the top-20. Alternatively Campbell is yet to miss a cut in 2006 so a high finish will be required to finish above him. Johnson and Lehman are worth siding with against the same player, Rory Sabbatini. Big-hitting Sabbatini has never looked suited to Sawgrass as five missed cuts and a 42nd place from six starts testifies.

Two spread bets also look worthy of a mention. Aside from Scott, I fancy two other Australians, NICK O'HERN and ROBERT ALLENBY, and spread look the best route. O'Hern has become the match and spread bet king in recent years, as well as the man you'd most like to lay when favourite. Despite apparently having no bottle, the left-hander is as consistent as they come and should love Sawgrass. On his first visit last year, Nick came back well from an opening 76 to finish a respectable 24th. I recommend a sell of his finishing position at 36, and a sell of Allenby at 33. I've always had Allenby down as a potential Sawgrass winner, but the clinching factor was a fine effort at Bay Hill at the weekend. Bob's form in his native Australia over the winter was genuinely world-class but it was re-assuring to see this multiple winner do something good in the States.

Betfair have at last added a top-10 market, along with Stan James and Skybet. This has always been a favourite market of mine, and I recommend backing several of these players here. Lehman is simply massive at 8/1, as are O'Hern, Allenby and Johnson at 8/1, 5/1 and 6/1 respectively. The best value though, has to be US Open champ MICHAEL CAMPBELL at 10/1. This is a classic case of over-reaction to one bad week. Missing the cut at Bay Hill was a disappointing effort but Cambo's schedule has been very light so far in 2006. Two of his last three Sawgrass efforts, when a fraction of the player he is today, resulted in top-15 finishes so clearly the course suits.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

3pts ew LUKE DONALD @ 20/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

TOP US PLAYER

1pt ew TOM LEHMAN @ 50/1 (STAN JAMES)
1pt ew JERRY KELLY @ 80/1 (BLUESQ)
1pt ew SCOTT VERPLANK @ 20/1 (BLUESQ, SKYBET)
1pt ew CHAD CAMPBELL @ 25/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 33/1 (BLUESQ, STAN JAMES)
1pt ew DAVIS LOVE @ 22/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

72-HOLE MATCH BETS

11pts ADAM SCOTT TO BEAT DAVID TOMS @ 10/11(BETFAIR, LADBROKES, BETFRED, TOTE)
11pts CHAD CAMPBELL TO BEAT CHRIS DIMARCO @ 10/11 (BETFRED, VICTOR CHANDLER)
11pts TOM LEHMAN TO BEAT RORY SABBATINI @ 10/11 (LADBROKES)
6pts ZACH JOHNSON @ 10/11 TO BEAT RORY SABBATINI @ 10/11 (TOTE)

TOP 10 FINISH

3pts MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 10/1 (STAN JAMES)
3pts NICK O'HERN @ 8/1 (SKYBET, STAN JAMES)
2pts TOM LEHMAN @ 8/1 (STAN JAMES)
2pts ROBERT ALLENBY @ 5/1 (STAN JAMES)
2pts ZACH JOHNSON @ 6/1 (STAN JAMES)
2pts JERRY KELLY @ 8/1 (STAN JAMES)

SPREADS

SELL NICK O'HERN FINISHING POSITION 3pts @ 36
SELL ROBERT ALLENBY FINISHING POSITION 2pts @ 33

2006 STATS: (-95.75pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

Cheltenham Day Two Advice

2006-03-15T05:49:00.000-08:00

Well, yesterday wasn't exactly a dream start for myself and others who fancied the early favourites but don't let that put you off. I'm going for exactly the same bet of buying Racing Post Favourites as today's batch of jollies look very strong. Even in the wide open races, the RP fav looks by far the strongest of the market leaders.

The one good piece of news yesterday was Martin Pipe drawing a blank. Paul Nicholls certainly has an opportunity to sew up that match bet and with it the trainers' title today with big chances in every race. The two horses persistently touted as festival bankers both run today, and are both Nicholls trained, in Denman and KAUTO STAR. Both run in races where favourite backers have historically done well and its very hard to see either beaten. At the odds, preference is for the latter. The Queen Mother Champion Chase always seems to be dominated by the handful of superstar 2m chasers. In this field, only two fit that bill in the Nicholls favourite and legend Moscow Flyer. There's no reason for sentiment concerning the latter, who has looked well past his best this season. Perhaps there were valid excuses as some suggest, but lets not forget this horse won his first 19 completed chases in all sorts of conditions. This year's form suggests the inevitable decline of a 12yo. Alternatively, Kauto Star has put up the best performance this season by some way, with a mightly impressive Tingle Creek win over Ashleybrook. As for the rest, they just don't look in the same league or capable of the required level of improvement. According to Timeform's infamous ratings, Kauto Star is rated a massive 11lb ahead of the next best Fota Island, and possesses much more scope for improvement. Compare that margin to Denman, for example, who is 7lb ahead of the rest taking on all sorts of unexposed novices at only just above Evens.

The nap, though, has to be THE LISTENER in the 2.35. I can't see why this one isn't favourite based on his outstanding form this season. Time and again, we've seen that the credentials required for this race are jumping ability and stamina which this one has in abundance. I can only assume the inflated odds are a consequence of his unexpected fall at Lingfield last time. Take no notice - that mistake came completely out of the blue, the jockey was partly at fault and The Listener was in the process of delivering a beating to some decent rivals. I see this horse as potentially next year's Gold Cup winner, perhaps improving on the fortunes of top-class staying chaser stablemates Sir Rembrandt and Kingscliff. The RP fav in this one is Pipe's Commercial Flyer, the only one of the spread selections I don't particularly want to be with, but bearing in mind the stable's record with similar types he does come very much into the reckoning.

The Coral Cup at 4.00 is the usual cavalry charge and not a race for big hitters. Nevertheless, having studied it at length I reckon you can put a line through at least a third of the field, so with five places available at Paddy Power, Bluesq, Bet365, Stan James and Bet Direct there might be some value about. The one I like is IL DUCE at 25/1. His in-form trainer Alan King has two in the race, with Mughas the other. Mughas has a very solid chance having placed in the same race off a higher mark two years ago, so it may mean something that Robert Thornton has chosen Il Duce. Having only his fourth race of a light campaign, and as a horse with plenty of scope over this trip, I'm confident this one will run a big race. The RP fav here, the McCoy/McManus No Where To Hyde is the only one of the market leaders even in my calculations here.

Another race where the initial perception of lottery may be wrong is the Kim Muir Chase, for amateur riders at 4.40. Many of the runners here either won't stay, don't possess sufficient jumping prowess or are just badly out of form. Again the RP fav, Nicky Henderson's LIBERTHINE, stands out and looks an excelllent asset for the spread market. This was my biggest winner at Cheltenham last year, clearly the horse excels off a strong pace at Cheltenham. There are few shrewder stables in races of this type than Henderson, who reports the horse in great form and laid out for the race. As well as being the clear pick on the formbook, Liberthine could enjoy a jockey advantage over many of the others as his pilot Sam Waley-Cohen always rides and has proved himself more than competent.

The Bumper, at 5.40, has been dominated by Willie Mullins in the past so its no surprise to see him dominate the market, with what appears to be the first choice on jockey bookings Equus Maximus currently a hot favourite. However, I think the Mullins' factor might be a bit of an over-reaction as the two that stand out as the best prospects to me are KICKS FOR FREE and Wichita Linesman. The latter is ridden by questionable amateur JP Magnier so preference must be for the Nicholls runner, who has looked extremely impressive so far.

Good Luck!

BUY RACING POST FAVOURITES 5 @ 49

2.35 4pts win THE LISTENER (NAP)
3.15 8pts win KAUTO STAR
4.00 1pt ew IL DUCE
4.40 2pts win LIBERTHINE
5.15 3pts win KICKS FOR FREE

Chinese event vulnerable to English invaders

2006-03-15T05:43:00.001-08:00

With all this 24 hour cricket and Cheltenham to trade, I've barely had the time this week to write a lengthy preview of the week's events but here is the betting advice anyway. The two events are the TCL Classic in China, and one of the big US Tour events of the year in the Bay Hill Invitational. China looks by far the better heat for pre-tournament bets, with a weak field likely to be dominated by a handful of world class performers in DAVID HOWELL, defending champ PAUL CASEY, Nick Dougherty, Paul McGinley and CHARL SCHWARTZEL.

It was infuriating to see Nick Dougherty's putter go cold at the weekend thus making him come up painfully short of shock winner Mardan Mamat, who holed everything in sight. Notably, the winning score was a few shots behind the previous winning scores at Laguna National by Dougherty and Colin Montgomerie. My theory is that Dougherty should have won by a few shots against a weak field, and had there been one more class act around they would probably have won instead. The way my form has been with tipping Dougherty he'll probably win but this week is a glorified putting contest and he will have to improve massively in that department to justify shorter odds than last week. Another potential drawback for Nick is that he was suffering from blisters on his feet in last week's humid conditions. Having won in China before Christmas, Howell is clearly taking this event seriously enough as I would have expected him to be at Bay Hill. There's a big gulf in class between Howell and 99% of this field, none of whom would expect to have enough to finish top-12 at Doral as Howell did on his last start, let alone top the Order of Merit. His chance is extremely obvious and the odds far from prohibitive.

Some say defending champions are poor value, as they have so much extra pressure and media work to contend with. There's probably some merit to that in the more competitive events but all winter we've been seeing defending champions follow up on these minor tours. Casey has been a model of consistency in recent months and has won twice in China now. He defeated McGinley in a play-off last year, the other obvious candidate I'm prepared to overlook as he is just too short a price for an infrequent winner, though his form in the States has been excellent.

Instead, I'm going for a player at double the price of that quartet, but who will probably achieve more in the game eventually than any of them. Laguna National was never the type of course where we could expect to see the best of CHARL SCHWARTZEL, and his disappointing weekend may account for what seem inflated odds this week. On the evidence of last year, this course is a birdie-fest tailor-made for big hitters like Schwartzel and defending champion Casey.

As for Bay Hill, its never done much for me gambling wise. That probably has much to do with Tiger Woods' previous infallibility here when he won four years in a row from 2000 - 2003. However, it is interesting that since Woods' accuracy from the tee deteriorated two years ago, he has failed miserably on this course. On the basis of his exceptional start to 2006, I was tempted to pile into the Tiger as a certainty, but on reflection that accuracy is yet to return so I'd rather sit out for the time being and trade his price in-running.

This event is normally won by a class act, but question marks also surround the form of fellow superstars Ernie Els, Vijay Singh and Retief Goosen. Sergio Garcia has claims on past course forms if for once he has a good putting week, but with all these overlooked ADAM SCOTT ends up in the staking plan almost by process of elimination. His 2nd placing at the Nissan Open confirm that the Aussie is in form, and his long straight driving are a pivotal asset here, as 3rd place behind Chad Campbell in 2004 shows. This is a big time of the year for Scott, who also has a big chance at Sawgrass next week.

The best value bet in the event though has to be MICHAEL CAMPBELL at 66/1. For years, Cambo was the biggest underachiever in the game, especially in the States, but Bay Hill was the one US venue where the old-style Cambell ever excelled, having finished runner-up to Tiger there. Since winning the US Open in June, Michael is now a completely different player on the world stage and a threat to all in any event he tees it up. I doubt we'll see these kind of odds around for much longer, including next week's Sawgrass jamboree in which he must be a contender.

Finally, have a point each-way on SCOTT VERPLANK. I don't like backing this guy to win as he has shown major bottling tendencies, but he has a very obvious chance this week to get into the shake-up. Extremely consistent from tee to green, essential on this track, Verplank finished tied 3rd with Scott in 2003 and will fancy his chances of a big week on the back of an excellent 2006 campaign so far.

Good Luck!

STAKING PLAN

TCL CLASSIC

8pts win DAVID HOWELL @ 8/1 (LADBROKES)
4pts ew PAUL CASEY @ 11/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
2pts ew CHARL SCHWARTZEL @ 28/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

BAY HILL INVITATIONAL

1.5pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 22/1 (SKYBET)
1pt ew MICHAEL CAMPBELL @ 66/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1pt ew SCOTT VERPLANK @ 50/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)

2006 STATS: (-68.75pts)
2005 STATS: +49.5pts

Cheltenham Day One Advice

2006-03-14T02:37:00.000-08:00

Having studied Timeform and what seems a like a million other guides obsessively for the last few days, I've drawn some fairly strong conclusions about the first day. As hard as I try to find decent-priced value, I just keep coming back to some very obvious favourites. The dilemma then is always whether their short prices are worth the risk, but thankfully there's a much better way of siding with all of todays 'good things' while not suffering too much heartache if one runs a cracker and gets touched off in a photo-finish.

The bet is to buy the Racing Post Favourites Index at 47. Scoring is calculated at 25 points per win, 10 points per 2nd placing, 5 pts per third. So two winners out of six will guarantee a profit, while only a truly disastrous day would be especially costly. The first five selections all have blindlingly obvious chances. In the first, SWEET WAKE creates exactly the type of price dilemma I referred to. The optimism and money behind this unexposed animal suggests we could well be getting a preview of next year's Champion Hurdle winner, but is less than 3/1 value in such a competitive field? I suspect he is, as I'm struggling too many dangerous rivals, but prefer the spread betting route in case he comes second.

The Arkle is the highlight of the day in my opinion, and RACING DEMON represents my bet of the day. This one was my nap at last year's festival, and I was absolutely gutted to see a 25/1 winner go down the pan when he was caught on the line by No Refuge having traded 1.01 in-running. As high quality as the field is, I do think Racing Demon has by far the greatest potential, and probably boasts the best form on offer in his beating of Hoo La Baloo. Henrietta Knight's cotton-wool strategy has meant we've seen less of this prospect than might have otherwise been the case, hence the attractive 5/1 on offer. Its impossible to not draw comparisons with Best Mate, and Knight knew exactly what she was doing when shielding her superstar from unnecessary races in unsuitable conditions.

In the Champion, Brave Inca is a lovely horse to have onside in the spread bet, but I think the price is plenty short enough at 2/1, especially with the dangerous Arcalis around. Here. my idea of the each-way value is Nicky Richards' FAASEL. Despite the poor record of 5yos in this race, I'm expecting we'll see his best run of the season today as he simply loves the conditions today, with a fast pace guaranteed.

Similarly in the 4.00, once again there is a question mark surrounding the value of favourite, MOULIN RICHE. A winner at the Festival last year, I think this one could be thrown in but there are still plenty of dangers around such as Dun Doire and No Half Session. With JP expected to play, I doubt any more than 4/1 will be available on Moulin Riche, but I'm delighted to have him onside with the RP Favourites spread bet.

The Sporting Index Cross-Country Chase (4.35) looks a nightmare punting race. Edna Bolger probably has the solution with three solid contenders, the best of which looks to be GOOD STEP who is our spread bet selection. I have a suspicion here that the race will be wide open, and the market leaders might be a bit short. Try a couple of each-way bets on horses certain to stay the marathon trip and who like the course in LORD JACK and MRS BEE.

The final race, the Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle, looks exactly the type of lottery one might expect from the race title with none of the 24 runners confidently ruled out. However, using the ever-wise Timeform previews, I might just have found one thrown in. ROSECLIFF looks a guarateed improver who has been laid out for this by his shrewd connections. It was no surprise to see lots of money around for this one last night. Also in this race, I think Paul Nicholls' runner OPERA MUNDI has some improvement and rates a decent each-way bet at attractive odds. Our spread selection in this race is Nicky Henderson's ROYALS DARLING, which is the one of our selections I don't fancy particularly but obviously you'd never write off a Henderson runner in such a contest.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

BUY RACING POST FAVOURITES INDEX 3pts @ 47

2.35 4pts win RACING DEMON @ SP
3.15 1pt ew FAASEL @ SP
4.40 1pt ew LORD JACK @ 25/1 (SPORTING ODDS, UKBETTING)
4.40 1pt ew MRS BEE @ 20/1 (VICTOR CHANDLER)
5.20 2pts win ROSECLIFF @ 9/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
5.20 0.5pts ew OPERA MUNDI @ SP